View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, FL
Time: Monday, December 30 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#9 Florida Gators (10-2) vs. #24 Virginia Cavaliers (9-4)
A couple of forgotten teams that had good seasons, especially the Gators. It should be an air war as both teams pass the ball very well.
Vegas line/spread: Florida by 14 1/2 (over/under 54.5)
Movement: The line opened around 14, moved up to 15 quickly, and has settled at 14 1/2 by game day. The o/u moved up just a half point.
Strength power rating: #13 Florida 38, #48 Virginia 19
Adjusted for turnovers: Florida 36-20
Median game rating: Florida 37-21
Here's the problem with Virginia being here; they just aren't good enough for this big of a bowl game. The Cavaliers only rank 48th in our Strength power rating while Florida is nearly top ten. We could even give Florida partial HFA, maybe a point, for playing in state but why bother.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -14 Spread |
| Florida | 91% | 58% |
| Virginia | 9% | 42% |
Nearly all of Florida's game ratings exceed Virginia's, and even spotting the Cavs two touchdowns doesn't make it even.
When Florida has the ball
| Florida scoring offense: #19 |
Virginia scoring defense: #71 |
| Florida total offense: #18 |
Virginia total defense: #53 |
| Florida rushing offense: #97 |
Virginia rushing defense: #79 |
| Florida passing offense: #11 |
Virginia passing defense: #62 |
Back in the 90s Florida football was associated with offense on an outrageous scale, but more recently the Gators suffered through roughly a decade where they won on defense and couldn't score to save their lives. Finally, now, Florida is again showing up on offense, even if their defense is still winning games for them. In raw terms it's not too flashy—they rank 35th in scoring—but accounting for their tough SEC schedule they're in the top 25. And harkening back to the '90 again most of their yardage comes through the air. Kyle Trask took over for the injured Feleipe Franks after game 3 and has put up 2,636 yards with a solid 24:6 ratio, not bad for a backup. Virginia's defense isn't on par with what you'd expect from an Orange Bowl team so they'll have to rise to the occasion.
When Virginia has the ball
| Virginia scoring offense: #28 |
Florida scoring defense: #11 |
| Virginia total offense: #61 |
Florida total defense: #10 |
| Virginia rushing offense: #104 |
Florida rushing defense: #31 |
| Virginia passing offense: #28 |
Florida passing defense: #21 |
Virginia, too, has a prolific passing game, and even less of a ground game than the Gators. They score a lot more than their yardage would indicate, probably from a combination of their good red zone play on offense and good field position on kickoffs. QB Bryce Perkins more or less is the Cavalier offense, throwing for 3,215 yards (18 TDs, 11 int) while leading the team with 745 net yards on the ground. He's been sacked 38 times this year which is bad given that Florida's strong defense has 48 sacks. On the upside for Virginia, Florida will be without NFL-bound CJ Henderson, a key component of their pass defense.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Florida #21 Virginia #10
The brightest spot this year for the Cavaliers has been special teams. Brian Delaney has made 20 of 24 FG attempts and Joe Reed is the #1 kickoff returner in college football.
Florida's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- =Miami FL 24-20
- Tennessee-Martin 45-0
- @Kentucky 29-21
- Tennessee 34-3
- Towson 38-0
- #12 Auburn 24-13
- @#1 LSU 28-42
- @South Carolina 38-27
- =#5 Georgia 17-24
- Vanderbilt 56-0
- @Missouri* 23-6
- Florida St 40-17
Florida didn't play a bad game all season, start to finish. Most teams have a dud here or there, but Florida's worst game was probably the opening win over Miami and after that they got better and better, going 6-0 and looking like a Playoff contender after beating #12 Auburn. The loss to LSU, and two games later, Georgia, would end that talk for good, but the Gators played well in both games and losing only to top 5 teams is no shame (their only shame is playing two FCS opponents!). Florida took out its frustrations on poor Vanderbilt, 56-0, and ended the season very strong despite having not much to gain. That's a good sign for their performance in the bowl game.
Virginia's season (9-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)
- @Pittsburgh 30-14
- William & Mary 52-17
- Florida St 31-24
- Old Dominion 28-17
- @#15 Notre Dame 20-35
- @Miami FL 9-17
- Duke 48-14
- @Louisville 21-28
- @North Carolina 38-31
- Georgia Tech 33-28
- Liberty 55-27
- Virginia Tech 39-30
- =#3 Clemson 17-62
Virginia started the year 4-0 with three decent performances and a dud win over Old Dominion at home. They played pretty well in losing at Notre Dame, less so in the Miami loss, but their best performance came against Duke where the offense, aided by turnovers and a kickoff return touchdown, racked up the points and the defense held firm. But the next time out they were the ones giving the ball away and losing to Louisville. But the Cavaliers finished strong, beating three bowl-bound teams to finish 9-3. The Clemson game is best forgotten, if it can be, during bowl prep.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Florida's season: +1 win; Virginia's season: +2 wins
- Florida's momentum: -2 wins; Virginia's momentum: +1 win
- Florida glad to be here? yes; Virginia glad to be here: YES
- Florida time zones from home: 0; Virginia time zones from home: 0
- Florida coaching situation: unchanged; Virginia coaching situation: unchanged
Both teams improved their lot from last season, moreso for Virginia. The Gators were in the Peach Bowl last year, and the Orange Bowl is a decent upgrade among top bowls. Virginia spend last December prepping for the Belk Bowl. No contest there in terms of upgrades.
There is the matter of how the teams ended the season—Florida with 3 strong wins, Virginia with a dismal showing against Clemson. But there are caveats: Florida's last win was a rivalry win over FSU, so they had some motivation there. And the loss to Clemson was probably due more to Clemson than the fault of the Cavaliers. The two games they played before that were pretty sound.
Final analysis
Both teams can pass the ball, but only one team can defend the pass. That's the basic problem for Virginia and it's why the game has a big spread. What do the Cavs need to do to win? They have to play their best game, no question. They can't depend on Florida having an off day, because Florida hasn't had an off game all season. The only way for Virginia to win is to play like they did when they beat Duke 48-14—they need turnovers and big kickoff returns, every break in the book. And even then Florida could still win.
The fact that this game is a clear mismatch to all observers is ironically what gives Virginia a decent chance. Bowl history is replete with big favorites coming in overconfident and flat and losing outright to the underdog. Usually this happens in a smaller bowl when the favorite has narrowly missed out on a big bowl and has zero motivation. The Orange Bowl isn't a lesser destination, and Florida wasn't really in the running for anything better for months, so the pattern isn't there. But it doesn't mean the Gators can't get overconfident. How likely is it, though?
Based on their performance all year, it just doesn't seem that anything can make Florida have a bad game. Following the Georgia loss they had every reason to have a letdown game and be overconfident against Vanderbilt but they won 56-0. And why would they care about the Missouri game after that? Yet they took care of business. Now we're supposed to believe they will get overconfident and flounder in the Orange Bowl? There is no evidence Florida won't do what they've done all season—play a solid game.
The question of showing up is one for Virginia. They didn't show up against Clemson—understandable, but true. They did better against Notre Dame, a team more on Florida's level—but still lost by 15 points. In fact the best team the Cavs beat all year is North Carolina, #43 in Strength. Given that, and no reason to think Florida will falter, we have no standing to take a stab and pick an upset here. The question is how bad Virginia will lose. We think our power rating has it pretty close, though Virginia might have more luck on offense with CJ Henderson gone from the Florida lineup. It doesn't change our basic outlook.
Prediction: Florida 38, Virginia 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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