View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA
Time: Saturday, December 21 at 9:00pm ET
TV: ESPN
#20 Appalachian State Mountaineers (12-1) vs. UAB Blazers (9-4)
One of the best bowl games on a busy Saturday, the New Orleans Bowl remarkably pits a team that's only been in the FBS for 6 years against a program that dropped the sport and has been back for just three years.
Vegas line/spread: Appalachian State by 16 1/2 (over/under 47.5)
A big line; it was 17 in early going. The o/u is down 1/2 point recently, back to where it started.
Strength power rating: #29 Appalachian State 39, #103 UAB 15
Adjusted for turnovers: Appalachian State 35-17
Median game rating: Appalachian State 39-22
Appalachian State is an overwhelming favorite and the Strength power rating shows why, as the Mountaineers are #19 to UAB's dismal #103. This yields a 24-point spread in our ratings, but note that when corrected for turnover 'luck' the spread tightens to 18, and further, UAB's median game rating is a stunning 7 points higher than its average rating. This means there is a terrible, terrible performance dragging down the average that the median bypasses.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -17 Spread |
| Appalachian State | 93% | 60% |
| UAB | 7% | 40% |
Per the Strength power rating, Appalachian State wins more than 9 times out of 10, and still the majority against the early spread. As seen above though, there are caveats depending on how you look at the teams so let's dig deeper.
When Appalachian State has the ball
| App State scoring offense: #24 |
UAB scoring defense: #75 |
| App State total offense: #63 |
UAB total defense: #41 |
| App State rushing offense: #31 |
UAB rushing defense: #60 |
| App State passing offense: #86 |
UAB passing defense: #58 |
Appalachian State's offense is pretty good, ranking in the top ten in scoring before adjustment for schedule, where it remains in the top 25. Compare this to UAB's below-average defense and it looks like the Mountaineers will run rampant. But UAB doesn't give up a lot of yardage—they're #7 in raw terms there, adjusted to #41—and Appalachian State is only average when it comes to gaining yards. A probably explanation for this is red zone play, where Appalachian State ranks #13 on offense. Still, the Mountaineers' ground game ranks high enough to trouble the Blazers, with Darrynton Evans (1,323 yards, 17 TDs) leading the way.
When UAB has the ball
| UAB scoring offense: #116 |
App State scoring defense: #46 |
| UAB total offense: #100 |
App State total defense: #34 |
| UAB rushing offense: #78 |
App State rushing defense: #54 |
| UAB passing offense: #91 |
App State passing defense: #31 |
UAB doesn't score a lot, nor move the ball very well. Appalachian State's defense doesn't yield too many points or yards. This is why most of the estimates show a low score for UAB. Even the rushing and passing matchups don't look great for the Blazers, who average 3.9 yards per carry, while 9 different Mountaineers have intercepted a pass this season.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Appalachian State #43 UAB #74
Appalachian State's season (12-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- East Tennessee St 42-7
- UNC-Charlotte 56-41
- @North Carolina 34-31
- Coastal Carolina 56-37
- @Louisiana-Lafayette 17-7
- Louisiana-Monroe 52-7
- @South Alabama 30-3
- Georgia Southern 21-24
- @South Carolina 20-15
- @Georgia St 56-27
- Texas St-San Marcos 35-13
- @Troy 48-13
- Louisiana-Lafayette 45-38
Appalachian State beat 5 of the 6 bowl-bound teams they played this year, dropping only a close game with Georgia Southern. But until they beat South Carolina, a non-bowl team, they didn't get a lot of respect. Not only is South Carolina from the SEC, but they beat Georgia, so by comparison people had to acknowledge that the Mountaineers were actually a good team. They handed Louisiana Lafayette two of their three losses on the year.
UAB's season (9-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)
- Alabama St 24-19
- @Akron 31-20
- South Alabama 35-3
- @Western Kentucky 13-20
- Rice 35-20
- @Texas-San Antonio 33-14
- Old Dominion 38-14
- @Tennessee 7-30
- @Southern Miss 2-37
- UTEP 37-10
- Louisiana Tech 20-14
- @North Texas 26-21
- @Florida Atlantic 6-49
UAB played four terrible games that weigh down their (mean) average: the 5-point over FCS Alabama State; the 11-point win over 0-12 Akron; the 37-2 loss (yes, they scored only a safety) to Southern Miss; and the 49-6 loss to FAU. The rest of their games were respectable performances, albeit against a very easy schedule. UAB played 5 bowl teams and lost to 4 of them, beating Louisiana Tech late in the season.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Appalachian State's season: +2 wins; UAB's season: -1 win
- Appalachian State's momentum: -1 win; UAB's momentum: -2 wins
- Appalachian State glad to be here? maybe; UAB glad to be here: probably
- Appalachian State time zones from home: 1; UAB time zones from home: 0
- Appalachian State coaching situation: coach left; UAB coaching situation: unchanged
There are two factors here and both relate to Appalachian State. First, they've been here before—just last year. Add a 12-1 and all you get is going back to the same bowl game? This team's record is their best since returning to Division I-A play six years ago; they've been to four straight bowl games and won them all. Will they have the motivation to win a game where they are favored by 17 points?
The other factor is the coaching change. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz left to take the Missouri job. Replacing him is co-offensive coordinator Shawn Clark. This shouldn't be a big deal for the team, but you never know.
Final analysis
Being a 17-point favorite in a bowl game has long been a recipe for disaster. Several times over the years, big favorites have been upset due to lack of motivation. In most of these cases, the favorite lost a late-season game that bumped them out of a prestigeous bowl game and into a much less significant one. That doesn't apply here, as Appalachian State didn't lose any games late in the season. But they have been ranked in the Playoff Committee's top 25 for a while, neck and neck with some of the other New Year's Day bowl hopefuls. In the end they finished 3 spots below Memphis, and below Boise State, so there wasn't much hope for them. A bigger factor is probably their disappointment at going to the same bowl as last year despite their stellar season.
Appalachian State also lost their coach, but his replacement is "family" so they will likely not miss a beat. The team is pretty consistent and it's hard to see them really laying an egg. And as long as they don't, they will probably win this game. But will it be close?
UAB has laid several eggs this season. Troublingly, two of them came later in the year. Their troubles start on offense, where they scored just 2 and 6 points against Southern Miss and FAU (meaning, the offense scored 0 and 6). If they have one of these bad games, they could lose by 50 points.
But for that to happen, the Mountaineers would have to get going offensively. They might come out a bit flat due to bowl disappointment, and their OC transitioning to head coach. And looking at the offensive and defensive matchups, UAB can definitely slow them down, while UAB will be hard-pressed to get anything going offensively. For the Blazers offense it could be a repeat of their dud games against Southern Miss and FAU. Appalachian State might not light up the scoreboard either, but their ground game should grind out a win.
Prediction: Appalachian State 24, UAB 3
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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