View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
Time: Monday, December 30 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Louisville Cardinals (7-5) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6)
Louisville and Mississippi State meet in the middle and play in Nashville.
Vegas line/spread: Mississippi State by 5 (over/under 63)
Movement: The line was steady for a few weeks but edged from 4 to 5 by game day, with the over inching up from 62.5.
Strength power rating: #40 Mississippi State 37, #67 Louisville 31
Adjusted for turnovers: Mississippi State 37-32
Median game rating: Mississippi State 36-33
The Vegas line is Bulldogs by 4, while our power rating says Bulldogs by 6. Or 5 if you 'remove' turnovers. Or 3 if you use median rather than mean. So do the Bulldogs cover? Who knows.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -4 Spread |
| Louisville | 39% | 54% |
| Miss State | 61% | 46% |
Most of our game-comparison 'trials' say the Bulldogs cover, but it's close. And our Strength power rating is usually a few points above the Vegas spread for the favorite anyway.
When Louisville has the ball
| Louisville scoring offense: #25 |
Miss State scoring defense: #49 |
| Louisville total offense: #24 |
Miss State total defense: #35 |
| Louisville rushing offense: #20 |
Miss State rushing defense: #41 |
| Louisville passing offense: #64 |
Miss State passing defense: #92 |
Louisville ranks #39 in raw scoring but when adjusted for their schedule—apparently they played tough defenses—they correct to have a legit top 25 offense. It's very similar in total yardage—their raw #40 rank converts to #24. The ground game is their specialty, ranking #20 behind Javian Hawkins' 1,420 yards. Mississippi State has an above-average but not great defense. They're fairly sound against the run which is good for them, but Louisville will find yards there as well as in the air, where the Bulldog defense is weak (and they are missing starting CB Cameron Dantzler to NFL prep). But Louisville is missing their own NFL-bound star, offensive tackle Mekhi Becton.
When Miss State has the ball
| Miss State scoring offense: #43 |
Louisville scoring defense: #110 |
| Miss State total offense: #34 |
Louisville total defense: #107 |
| Miss State rushing offense: #14 |
Louisville rushing defense: #124 |
| Miss State passing offense: #94 |
Louisville passing defense: #78 |
This looks really bad for Louisville. Not just because the Cardinals have the #110 defense, but in particular that they have the #124 rush defense against a team with the #14 ground game. The Bulldogs have Kylin Hill (1,347 yards, 10 TDs) but QB Garrett Shrader (#2 rusher with 587 yards) is suspended. Tommy Stevens (#4 rusher with 310 yards) will start; he's a marginal passer like Shrader. We'll look later at how Louisville fared against good running teams.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Louisville #61 Mississippi State #90
Louisville's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- #15 Notre Dame 17-35
- Eastern Kentucky 42-0
- =Western Kentucky 38-21
- @Florida St 24-35
- Boston College 41-39
- @Wake Forest 62-59
- #3 Clemson 10-45
- #24 Virginia 28-21
- @Miami FL 27-52
- @North Carolina St 34-20
- Syracuse 56-34
- @Kentucky 13-45
We mentioned that Louisville's raw offensive ranking takes an upward jump when corrected for their schedule, implying they played tough defenses. Well, they played 9 bowl teams and three Committee top 25 teams including Clemson (arguably the #1 defense), so there you go. The Cardinals opening loss to the Irish wasn't bad, and pointed to either a good season for Louisville or a bad one for Notre Dame; the next two wins made it clear the Cardinals were going to be much improved over last year's 2-10. They beat some good teams—Virginia among them—and lost to others, of course, like Clemson, but generally didn't suffer any real upsets. The loss to Kentucky at the end of the season was pretty bad, though. But when you go from 2 wins to 7 you can't be too greedy.
Mississippi State's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)
- =Louisiana-Lafayette 38-28
- Southern Miss 38-15
- Kansas St 24-31
- Kentucky 28-13
- @#12 Auburn 23-56
- @Tennessee 10-20
- #1 LSU 13-36
- @Texas A&M 30-49
- @Arkansas 54-24
- #13 Alabama 7-38
- Abilene Christian 45-7
- Mississippi 21-20
Mississippi State began the year very strong, with wins over 10-3 Louisiana and bowl-bound Southern Miss and Kentucky. Between those they lost a close game to a good Kansas State team. But the season veered south over the next four games, as the big losses to Auburn and LSU carried over to games that could have been winnable. They were 3-5 and needed 3 wins for a bowl game. As expected they beat lowly Arkansas and Abilene while losing big to Bama. At 5-6 they needed an Egg Bowl win, and got it courtesy of one of the weirdest penalties ever thrown, one that cost Ole Miss their extra point. This has to be the first time the Bulldogs made a bowl game because an opposing player pretended to take a bulldog-style leak on their turf.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Louisville's season: +5 wins; Miss State's season: -2 wins
- Louisville's momentum: -1 win; Miss State's momentum: +0 wins
- Louisville glad to be here? YES; Miss State glad to be here: yes
- Louisville time zones from home: 1; Miss State time zones from home: 1
- Louisville coaching situation: unchanged; Miss State coaching situation: unchanged
Both teams experienced turnarounds. Louisville's was the turnaround from last year's 2-10 to this year's 7-5. That will make any team happy to go to just about any bowl game. Mississippi State's turnaround was from 3-5 to bowl-eligible 6-6 by winning 3 of their last 4. They might not think this bowl is great but the alternative of staying home for bowl season is worse.
Final analysis
Our power rating says Mississippi State should win, and we've seen very little to convince us otherwise. In fact, Louisville's awful rush defense, coupled with the Bulldogs strong run game, makes us wonder if it won't be worse than advertised for the Cardinals.
Louisville has faced some good rushing teams before: Boston College (#9), Clemson (#16), and Kentucky (#10). The Cardinals actually beat the Eagles, 41-39; our power rating says BC should have scored 36 points. Not too bad. They lost to Clemson 45-10, and should have given up 49, but lost only by 30. Maybe unfair to use Clemson, though. Kentucky is a fair comparison. Our power rating says the Cardinals should lose that game by about 9 points and give up 34 points; they lost 45-13. In each case the Cardinals did worse than their power rating average, so we can probably expect that to happen against Mississippi State, whether it's 2, 5, or 23 points. They averaged 10 points worse in overall play, which will happen when the other team can control field position.
Will Louisville's turnaround-season momentum help? Maybe, but Mississippi State has their own momentum. And most likely, and any high Louisville has is from just reaching a bowl game. After a terrible year like a 2-10 season, getting there is enough. A win would be nice, but that's a lot to ask for when you have an atrocious rush defense.
The problem for Mississippi State is the suspension of starting QB Garrett Shrader. Not because of his mediocre passing; backup Tommy Stevens should do just as well, or just as poorly. Somewhat for his running ability (he's the #2 rusher) but again, the Bulldogs have other options there. No, mostly it's because you don't want to see players fighting in practice before the bowl game. It makes one wonder if the team is unified and motivated. For now we'll dock the Bulldogs a few points for the QB switch and disruption but assume it's an isolated incident.
Prediction: Mississippi State 39, Louisville 31
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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