View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD
Time: Friday, December 27 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN
Temple Owls (8-4) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)
A good regional matchup, with both teams getting to play close to home in Maryland.
Vegas line/spread: North Carolina by 6 (over/under 54)
Movement: By game day the line had edged up by 1 1/2 points and the over/under was up a point.
Strength power rating: #43 North Carolina 28, #69 Temple 20
Adjusted for turnovers: North Carolina 26-19
Median game rating: North Carolina 29-22
Despite a pedestrian 6-6 record the Tar Heels are the favorite by Vegas and the Strength power rating; the adjustments move things a bit toward the Vegas line but stays above it.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -4.5 Spread |
| Temple | 34% | 47% |
| North Carolina | 66% | 53% |
UNC wins 2/3 of the game performance comparisons, with a narrow edge left over after adjusting for the original 4 1/2 point spread.
When Temple has the ball
| Temple scoring offense: #96 |
North Carolina scoring defense: #47 |
| Temple total offense: #95 |
North Carolina total defense: #66 |
| Temple rushing offense: #102 |
North Carolina rushing defense: #94 |
| Temple passing offense: #63 |
North Carolina passing defense: #70 |
Temple's offense isn't their strong point, but UNC's defense isn't exactly lockdown, so there is some potential here for the Owls. Their ground game is pretty poor but UNC is bad there, too, so Re'Mahn Davis (900 yards) could find some success. The Owls are a better passing team, and again the Tar Heels are equal to the task but the edge could go either way.
When North Carolina has the ball
| North Carolina scoring offense: #47 |
Temple scoring defense: #41 |
| North Carolina total offense: #9 |
Temple total defense: #51 |
| North Carolina rushing offense: #43 |
Temple rushing defense: #38 |
| North Carolina passing offense: #14 |
Temple passing defense: #16 |
Our first question is: why? Why does North Carolina rank as a top ten offensive in total yardage (adjusted for opposition) but rank only #47 in adjusted scoring? In other words, why can they run all over the field (pass, probably) but not put the ball in the end zone. Two likely culprits are turnovers and red zone ineffectiveness. And it's not turnovers, as the Tar Heels have only 11 on the season, which is stellar. And they rank a respectable #43 in red zone offense. This may be one of those cases that is best left unsolved. In any case, QB Sam Howell leads a lethal passing game with 3,347 yards and 35 TDs against just 7 picks. Two receivers—Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome—are tied with 947 yards each. Temple's defense is a good match for North Carolina in every area except total offense. Strange.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Temple #103 North Carolina #95
Temple's season (8-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)
- Bucknell 56-12
- Maryland 20-17
- @Buffalo 22-38
- Georgia Tech 24-2
- @East Carolina 27-17
- #17 Memphis 30-28
- @SMU 21-45
- Central Florida 21-63
- @South Florida 17-7
- Tulane 29-21
- @#21 Cincinnati 13-15
- Connecticut 49-17
Temple had an interesting year. In week 2 they stifled formerly high-scoring Maryland to turn the tide of the Terps' season. Later they handed #17 Memphis the Tigers' only loss of the season. Their defense was effective against all but the most prolific offenses, as witnessed by the SMU and UCF losses. They finished the season strong, beating USF, Tulane, and UConn (49-17) and almost beating #21 Cincinnati.
North Carolina's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)
- =South Carolina 24-20
- Miami FL 28-25
- @Wake Forest 18-24
- #20 Appalachian St 31-34
- #1 Clemson 20-21
- @Georgia Tech 38-22
- @Virginia Tech 41-43 6OT
- Duke 20-17
- #24 Virginia 31-38
- @Pittsburgh 27-34 OT
- Mercer 56-7
- @North Carolina St 41-10
North Carolina only lost to bowl teams—including 3 in the top 25—but they only beat one bowl-bound squad, Miami in game 2. The Tar Heels went 2-0, then lost six of their next 8—two in overtime—then closed with two strong wins to hit the magic 6-6. Pretty much all their games were at the same level, except for maybe the big 41-10 win over rival NC State at the end, and their best game by far, the 1-point loss to defending national champ Clemson. That game was such an outlier that it almost has to be chalked up to a flub by Clemson rather than out-of-the-blue greatness from an otherwise ridiculously consistent team. This consistency will serve UNC well in the bowl game, where they seem very unlikely to lay an egg. They have two modes: pretty good, and a little better than good. What's remarkable is how another touchdown per game makes them undefeated, and even another field goal in regulation and the Tar Heels are around 10-2. Conversely, they could also have finished 3-9.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Temple's season: +0 wins; North Carolina's season: +4 wins
- Temple's momentum: -2 wins; North Carolina's momentum: +0 wins
- Temple glad to be here? yes; North Carolina glad to be here: YES
- Temple time zones from home: 0; North Carolina time zones from home: 0
- Temple coaching situation: unchanged; North Carolina coaching situation: unchanged
Temple may have had higher hopes when they were 5-1, but once they were 5-3 they just needed to make a bowl game. North Carolina needed two wins at the end to go 6-6, and that followed a 2-10 campaign in 2018, so the Tar Heels feel doubly fortunate to be in a bowl at all, let alone a somewhat decent one.
Final analysis
Both teams finished the season strong, with UNC getting the two wins they needed at the end, and Temple going 3-1 and playing well. Both teams should be at their best for the bowl game.
Looking at the numbers, Temple's offense should struggle to make headway against the Tar Heels. But North Carolina's offense is a bit of a mystery. They pass the ball very well, and rack up yardage, but that doesn't translate to points. Temple has been good at bottling up teams this year, and their red zone defense is #4 in the nation.
Temple played great over their last four games, and very consistently. North Carolina was consistent all year save the outlier Clemson game. Using both of these averages makes for a very close game—and North Carolina is no stranger to close games, with 9 of their 12 contests ending within a touchdown. And against the 7 bowl teams they played the Tar Heels were 1-6, with every game a tight one. Temple was 1-1 in close games against bowl opponents, but lost big to three others.
We predict that North Carolina will outgain Temple by several hundred yards, but be mysteriously unable to convert that yardage to scoring and thus fall to the Owls in yet another narrow loss for the Tar Heels.
Prediction: Temple 22, North Carolina 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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