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Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA
Time: Thursday, December 26 at 4:00pm ET
TV: ESPN
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3) vs. Miami Hurricanes (6-6)
Miami limps into Shreveport for a showdown with Louisiana Tech. Can the Canes bounce back from an atrocious end to the season?
Vegas line/spread: Miami by 6 1/2 (over/under 50)
Very little movement; the line wavered from 6 1/2 to 6 and back up by game day. The over dipped from 50 to 49.5, and settled back at 50.
Strength power rating: #53 Miami 30, #89 Louisiana Tech 21
Adjusted for turnovers: Miami 30-21
Median game rating: Miami 31-19
Vegas favors Miami by nearly a touchdown in a low-scoring game, and the Strength power rating concurs, with Miami a 9-point favorite even after giving Louisiana Tech partial home field advantage for playing in-state and close to home. Miami ranks an only slightly above-average team, while the Bulldogs are well below average despite their strong record.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6.5 Spread |
| Louisiana Tech | 33% | 45% |
| Miami | 67% | 55% |
Since the Strength power ratings' average margin exceeds the spread, it follows that the game-comparison system will come to the same conclusion: that Miami wins the majority of trials, even against the spread.
When Louisiana Tech has the ball
| Louisiana Tech scoring offense: #71 |
Miami scoring defense: #35 |
| Louisiana Tech total offense: #60 |
Miami total defense: #20 |
| Louisiana Tech rushing offense: #89 |
Miami rushing defense: #48 |
| Louisiana Tech passing offense: #31 |
Miami passing defense: #23 |
Louisiana Tech's scoring offense is nearly in the top 25 in raw figures, but adjusted for their opponents' defenses that ranking falls to #71. Still, they are about average in total yardage, and excel in passing offense. J'Mar Smith has 2,814 yards and a 17:4 TD:int ratio; two of Tech's three losses occurred when he was out on suspension. Miami's defense isn't elite but is solid across the board, particularly against the pass on a per-play basis, so it should be a good matchup. The Bulldogs are further aided by two NFL-bound Miami linemen opting to not play the bowl game.
When Miami has the ball
| Miami scoring offense: #91 |
Louisiana Tech scoring defense: #97 |
| Miami total offense: #90 |
Louisiana Tech total defense: #93 |
| Miami rushing offense: #110 |
Louisiana Tech rushing defense: #55 |
| Miami passing offense: #54 |
Louisiana Tech passing defense: #99 |
Miami's offense has struggled this year and is statistically inferior to Louisiana Tech's, even after correction for schedule; luckily for the Hurricanes, the Bulldog defense is vulnerable even to a tepid offensive attack. The Canes have little effective ground game—made worse by leading rusher Deejay Dallas' season-ending injury—but an okay passing game. QBs Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry combined for 3,086 yards and a 27:8 TD:int ratio. Coach Manny Diaz is having a "quarterback competition" to see who starts the bowl game. WR Jeff Thomas (379 yards) will miss the game but the Canes have a pretty full stable usually and spread the ball around well. Also, in a big blow to the Bulldogs, CB Amik Robertson will miss the game to prep for the NFL draft; he has 16 pass defenses and 5 interceptions.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Louisiana Tech #106 Miami #91
Louisiana Tech's season (9-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- @Texas 14-45
- Grambling St 20-14
- @Bowling Green 35-7
- Florida Int'l 43-31
- @Rice 18-17
- Massachusetts 69-21
- Southern Miss 45-30
- @UTEP 42-21
- North Texas 52-17
- @Marshall 10-31
- @UAB 14-20
- Texas-San Antonio 41-27
Louisiana Tech debuted in Texas and were trashed 45-14, but after that they played better and better, culminating in a 52-17 beatdown of North Texas. Then starting QB J'Mar Smith and receiver Adrian Hardy were suspended and missed two games—games Louisiana Tech lost at Marshall and UAB. That pretty much stopped the team dead in its tracks. They recovered to beat UTSA but still didn't play a very good game. Will the layoff help? It's telling that Smith had one of his better outings at QB in the final game, throwing for 330 yards and 3 TDs.
Miami's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)
- =#9 Florida 20-24
- @North Carolina 25-28
- Bethune-Cookman 63-0
- Central Michigan 17-12
- Virginia Tech 35-42
- #24 Virginia 17-9
- Georgia Tech 21-22
- @Pittsburgh 16-12
- @Florida St 27-10
- Louisville 52-27
- @Florida Int'l 24-30
- @Duke 17-27
Despite losing, Miami played one of their better games against Florida, especially on defense. The North Carolina game wasn't a total disaster, either, but it was a loss and the Canes took out their frustrations on Bethune-Cookman. The narrow Central Michigan win was another red flag, and they lost to Virginia Tech to start 2-3. Beating Virginia looked good, but the Hurricanes turned around and lost to Georgia Tech as a 20+ point favorite.
For a moment, that served as a wake-up call. The next three games looked like a turnaround as they beat Pitt, dominated rival FSU, and put up 52 on Louisville. Just when people were talking about how Miami was out of its rough patch and had found its stride, they lost to Florida International. This loss can't be described in normal terms for what this means to Miami. The only thing I can compare it to is Alabama's loss in 2007 to Louisiana Monroe. It's something that would never have been conceivable until it happened. Miami and FIU are essentially cross-town rivals, if by rivals you mean what Navy was to Notre Dame for decades: a whipping boy. In 2006 Miami and FIU met for the first time; Miami won 35-0 and the teams still famously brawled, swinging helmets and all. For this year's Canes, the disappointment of this loss carried over into the next game, a loss at Duke. The season had gone from the recovery room to the morgue.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Louisiana Tech's season: +2 wins; Miami's season: -1 win
- Louisiana Tech's momentum: -1 win; Miami's momentum: +1 win
- Louisiana Tech glad to be here? yes; Miami glad to be here: NO
- Louisiana Tech time zones from home: 0; Miami time zones from home: 1
- Louisiana Tech coaching situation: unchanged; Miami coaching situation: unchanged
Here's what we see happening: Miami doesn't want to be here, has no reason to be motivated to beat Louisiana Tech, and just wants this season to be over with. Closing the year with losses to Florida International and Duke was bad enough, now they travel to an inconsequential bowl that isn't close to par for Miami's (now-long-ago) heyday.
Louisiana Tech had problems near the end of the season, but they finished with a win, and that makes a difference. Miami still has the bad taste of two losses. This could be some motivation to end the season well, but it might just be motivation to get the season over with. I can't imagine practices being purposeful for them. I think Louisiana Tech has a big psychological edge: for them, beating a program like Miami means something, and for Miami, beating the Bulldogs would really mean nothing.
Final analysis
Miami has two decent but not great quarterbacks. Instead of choosing one and letting the other know he'll get his chance, Miami is having a "quarterback competition" to see who starts. That doesn't sound like a great idea at the end of the season. Pitting the two guys who are supposed to lead the team against each other is something you do before the season starts, not before the bowl game. It smacks of desperation and makes the coach look uncertain, or like he's passing blame onto the team.
Miami has been hit unusually hard by late-season injuries and players opting to prep for the NFL rather than play in a bowl game. Out with injury are leading rusher Deejay Dallas and a few offensive linemen. On defense, DEs Trevon Hill and Jonathan Garvin are leaving to prep for the pros. The injuries certainly make things harder for Miami, and the sit-outs reflect our thesis that Miami doesn't want to be here. Louisiana Tech did have their own 'defection' to the NFL in cornerback Amik Robertson.
Louisiana Tech had a good year—admittedly against a very easy schedule—and were improving until the secretive player suspensions were announced. Without their starting QB they played two of their worst games. Remove those games from the equation and the Bulldogs rate about 3 points better—not enough to cover our power rating estimate of Miami's superiority, but it helps. And if you use Miami's last two games as an indication of where they're headed, it's not hard to think this game could be close.
The Hurricanes have a proud program, and used to dominate even great teams, let alone lesser ones. In 2001, who could ever have envisioned the day when they'd lose back-to-back games against FIU and Duke? If that can happen, they can lose a bowl game to Louisiana Tech. In 2005 a big bowl-game loss to Louisiana State was a sign of program decline. What will be said about a bowl loss to Louisiana Tech?
Sometimes teams can shake off late-season trouble and make a statement with a solid win, and other times that trouble carries over. We think Louisiana Tech has shaken off their troubles, while Miami is going to wait until next year to address them. We've closed the gap by four points due to Amik Robertson's absence from the La Tech secondary, and still we call for the upset.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 30, Miami 21
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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