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Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI
Time: Tuesday, December 24 at 8:00pm ET
TV: ESPN
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (9-5) vs. BYU Cougars (7-5)
Hawaii qualified for a bowl game, which means they will be playing in the Hawaii Bowl, their 8th appearance under that name. BYU is their opponent, their first appearance (though they played here in the Aloha Bowl in 1992).
Vegas line/spread: BYU by 1 1/2 (over/under 64.5)
The line held steady most of the way, dipping 1/2 point by game day. The over/under edged up 1/2 point.
Strength power rating: #70 Hawaii 33, #66 BYU 31
Adjusted for turnovers: Hawaii 37-30
Median game rating: Hawaii 31-29
Here it is, the first bowl game where the Strength power rating disagrees with the Vegas favorite. And without giving Hawaii home field advantage it would be the same. Vegas picks BYU narrowly, but we give Hawaii full home field advantage since the game is played in their home stadium. On a neutral field the Strength power rating favors BYU by a point. If Hawaii's penchant for turnovers is treated as bad luck not likely to repeat (which is true in general), they are a full touchdown favorite.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2 Spread |
| Hawaii | 55% | 59% |
| BYU | 45% | 41% |
These game-comparisons are run with Hawaii at home, too, so the Warriors have the edge straight up, and that edge grows if they only have to lose by less than 2 points. On a neutral field BYU wins 52% of the time.
When Hawaii has the ball
| Hawaii scoring offense: #36 |
BYU scoring defense: #62 |
| Hawaii total offense: #19 |
BYU total defense: #76 |
| Hawaii rushing offense: #84 |
BYU rushing defense: #63 |
| Hawaii passing offense: #9 |
BYU passing defense: #76 |
Hawaii has a solid offense; they're top 25 in yardage but don't translate that into point quite as well. No matter. The Rainbow Warrior pass offense is one of the very best in the nation; Cole McDonald has 3,642 yards and a 29:14 TD:int ratio, and that's with backup Chevan Cordeiro (907, 8:3) getting a lot of time. BYU's pass defense, and their defense overall, is average to below-average; it's very likely that by the end of the bowl game, Hawaii with have three 1,000 yard receivers (Cedric Byrd II is there with 1,068, while Jared Smart and Jojo Ward need 13 and 25 yards each).
When BYU has the ball
| BYU scoring offense: #72 |
Hawaii scoring defense: #104 |
| BYU total offense: #37 |
Hawaii total defense: #106 |
| BYU rushing offense: #91 |
Hawaii rushing defense: #117 |
| BYU passing offense: #18 |
Hawaii passing defense: #95 |
BYU's offense isn't quite as good as Hawaii's and they have the same issue: lots of yardage that doesn't convert to points. Like Hawaii, they rely heavily on the pass. And with Hawaii's defense even poorer than the Cougars, they should have a lot of success. They've started three quarterbacks this year, totaling 3,270 yards and 19 TDs. They started the year with Zach Wilson and finished the year with him, too, but it doesn't matter much who starts, it just means they have insurance now in case of further injuries.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Hawaii #78 BYU #84
Hawaii's season (9-5)
Wins vs. bowl teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- Arizona 45-38
- Oregon St 31-28
- @Washington 20-52
- Central Arkansas 35-16
- @Nevada 54-3
- @#19 Boise St 37-59
- Air Force 26-56
- @New Mexico 45-31
- Fresno St 38-41
- San José St 42-40
- @UNLV 21-7
- San Diego St 14-11
- Army 52-31
- @#19 Boise St 10-31
Hawaii beat two Pac-12 teams, Arizona and Oregon State, at home before losing big to Washington on the road. Two games later they played what was easily their best game, a 54-3 throttling of bowl-eligible Nevada. Shockingly, this didn't happen in Honolulu but in Reno. Removing this game as an outlier fluke and Hawaii's rating drops by 3 full points; it also makes any current-season data about Hawaii's home field advantage useless!
After that big win the Warriors fell to Boise State by 22 and to 10-2 Air Force by 30. They lost to lowly Fresno State and were just 5-4 but won four straight to make the Mountain West title game where they fell to the Broncos again, this time by 21.
BYU's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- #11 Utah 12-30
- @Tennessee 29-26 2OT
- Southern Cal 30-27 OT
- Washington 19-45
- @Toledo 21-28
- @South Florida 23-27
- #19 Boise St 28-25
- @Utah St 42-14
- Liberty 31-24
- Idaho St 42-10
- @Massachusetts 56-24
- @San Diego St 3-13
BYU got mauled at home by #11 Utah in the opener, then won two exciting overtime games against Power Five opponents, edging Tennessee on the road and USC at home. But they fared less well against Washington, then lost to Toledo and even South Florida. At this point, an astute observer might point out that BYU was very lucky to not be 0-6. The very next game the Cougars upset #19 Boise State, the start of a 5-game winning streak that put them firmly in bowl eligibility, before losing to SDSU. The Cougars ended up 5-4 against bowl teams.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Hawaii's season: +1 win; BYU's season: +1 win
- Hawaii's momentum: +1 win; BYU's momentum: +3 wins
- Hawaii glad to be here? YES; BYU glad to be here: YES
- Hawaii time zones from home: 0; BYU time zones from home: 3
- Hawaii coaching situation: unchanged; BYU coaching situation: unchanged
Two things are notable; one is BYU's late-season charge into bowl eligibility. In fact, most of BYU's season was an excitement high: they won two games in overtime, then later had a five-game win streak kicked off by a huge upset. For team morale, overtime is best way to win a game (and the worst way to lose), and coming back from 2-4 to reach a bowl game is inspirational. So BYU likely feels good about their season—much better than if they'd started 5-1 and finished 7-5 after losing two games in overtime.
The second thing is Hawaii's home field advantage: it's real, and it's spectacular. Even far-west BYU has three time zones to cross to get to Hawaii, and there's jet lag to deal with. Luckily for the Cougars, going to the west is the less-disruptive kind of travel. They just have to avoid the distractions of being in Hawaii, but with a mostly Mormon team, that should theoretically be less of an issue...right?
Final analysis
It should be an exciting game as both teams pass the ball well and don't defend the pass nearly as well. This should lead to a fair amount of scoring, but remember that both these teams tear up the field but don't score that often. This is because BYU is #123 in the red zone, while Hawaii is #78 there and has lost 30 turnovers, most in the nation. That will kill drives and hold points down.
Hawaii's turnovers are an issue; they have 30, an average of over 2 per game. If Hawaii limits the turnovers to just one, that's actually an improvement, however.
These teams have an unusual amount of common opponents (3). Both played Washington, San Diego State, and Boise State. The Huskies trashed both teams, beating Hawaii 52-20 and BYU 45-19, basically the same result given the former was played in Seattle and the latter in Provo. Hawaii beat San Diego State 14-11 while the Aztecs beat BYU 13-3. Point, Hawaii. But BYU upset Boise State 28-25 while the Broncos topped Hawaii twice, by 22 points and 21 points.
Most people believe home field advantage for Hawaii is greater than the average HFA, since the opponent must travel multiple time zones to get there. In fact some studies of home field advantage have ranked Hawaii's HFA #1 of all FBS teams, equal to about 7 points when normal HFA is half of that. If that's true, then we owe Hawaii a few more points. Vegas, notably, still thinks BYU will win the game, HFA be damned. Incidentally, Hawaii is 5-5 in bowl games played in Honolulu. That stat doesn't help us much.
BYU is having a pretty special season. Not in terms of wins and losses, but in how those wins and losses are distributed. It's not like a fairy tale season where a team feels it can't lose. It's about as "special" as a 7-5 season can feel. Playing in Hawaii is probably its own reward; I doubt there's any special motivational push to win this game, above and beyond the normal desire to win a game.
This game looks close. So let's say BYU gets in its 3rd overtime game of the year, but Hawaii's home field advantage and somewhat better red zone execution gives them a victory.
Prediction: Hawaii 40, BYU 37 2OT
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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