View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Frisco Bowl in Frisco, TX
Time: Friday, December 20 at 7:30pm ET
TV: ESPN2
Utah State Aggies (7-5) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (6-6)
Utah State is bowling for the 8th time in nine years, while it's Kent State's first time since 2012.
Vegas line/spread: Utah State by 7 (over/under 68)
Movement: The line has wavered between 7 and 6 1/2 a bit, while the o/u rose from 65.
Strength power rating: #90 Utah State 35, #93 Kent State 28 (FBS-only estimate: 32-30)
Adjusted for turnovers: Utah State 35-26
Median game rating: Utah State 37-25
Utah State is favored by Vegas by about a touchdown, and our Strength power rating agrees with that. Using only FBS games there's not much difference between their rankings; Utah State is #90, Kent State #93. But that doesn't count Kent State's abysmal performance against Kennesaw State and Utah State's huge win against Stony Brook. Using just FBS games, it's a 2 point margin.
However, the spread widens if we account for turnover "luck" over the season, and using median rather than average game strength it's a 12-point win for the Aggies.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| Utah State | 69% | 56% |
| Kent State | 31% | 44% |
Naturally Utah State wins the most game-performance comparisons, but interestingly though they come out a 6.9 point favorite on average, they still win quite a bit over 50% of comparisons by more than 7 points. Probably due to their high Median strength, and Kent State's lower Median rating. The Golden Flashes are more dependent on a few big games to pull their rating up.
When Utah State has the ball
| Utah State scoring offense: #83 |
Kent State scoring defense: #109 |
| Utah State total offense: #68 |
Kent State total defense: #124 |
| Utah State rushing offense: #85 |
Kent State rushing defense: #114 |
| Utah State passing offense: #40 |
Kent State passing defense: #123 |
Utah State's offense is nothing like it was last season, when the Aggies ranked #7 in scoring offense en route to an 11-2 season. But that might not matter against the Flashes, whose defense ranks in the triple digits in scoring, yardage, against the run, and against the pass (all adjusted for competition). In particular, it appears that Jordan Love (3,085 yds, 17 TDs) could have a great game (Love has announced he's leaving for the NFL but will play in the bowl game) as Kent State's pass defense is terrible, and lucky for him (he has 16 picks on the year) the Flashes only have 6 interceptions. His favorite target is Siaosi Mariner (874 yds).
When Kent State has the ball
| Kent State scoring offense: #76 |
Utah State scoring defense: #86 |
| Kent State total offense: #83 |
Utah State total defense: #101 |
| Kent State rushing offense: #48 |
Utah State rushing defense: #72 |
| Kent State passing offense: #88 |
Utah State passing defense: #73 |
Remarkably, Kent State might have the better offense of the two teams, remarkable given last year's gap (#7 to #116). The Flashes are a decent ground team, still ranking in the top 50 after adjusting for opponents. There aren't big numbers among the running backs as they spread out the touches, with QB Dustin Crum leading with 560 yards and Will Matthews the top RB at 514. Crum's not a prolific passer (2,333 yards) but he's accurate, completing 68% with a stellar 18:2 ratio.
Utah State's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- @Wake Forest 35-38
- Stony Brook 62- 7
- @San Diego St 23-17
- Colorado St 34-24
- @#1 LSU 6-42
- Nevada 36-10
- @Air Force 7-31
- Brigham Young 14-42
- @Fresno St 37-35
- Wyoming 26-21
- #19 Boise St 21-56
- @New Mexico 38-25
Utah State had a pretty tough schedule this year, opening with a narrow loss to 8-4 Wake Forest, then beating 9-3 San Diego State, both on the road. Mid-season they faced #1 LSU and 10-2 Air Force and got crushed by both. They did beat Nevada, but played their worst game in the home loss to BYU. They handled 9-3 Wyoming but couldn't stay with #19 Boise State. They won 3 out of 4 at the end but the BYU and Boise State games were pretty bad.
Kent State's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)
- @Arizona St 7-30
- Kennesaw St 26-23 OT
- @#12 Auburn 16-55
- Bowling Green 62-20
- @#8 Wisconsin 0-48
- @Akron 26- 3
- @Ohio U. 38-45
- Miami OH 16-23
- @Toledo 33-35
- Buffalo 30-27
- Ball St 41-38
- @Eastern Michigan 34-26
Kent State didn't beat many good teams but surprisingly they didn't lose to a single non-bowl-eligible opponent. Understandably they didn't beat Arizona State, Auburn, or Wisconsin on the road, and they lost three in a row to better MAC teams. Their first win was pretty bad, an overtime squeaker against FCS Kennesaw State, but their offense was great against 3-9 Bowling Green, and the defense did well vs. 1-11 Akron. Their last three wins showed stability and progress, as they took out bowl-bound Buffalo and Eastern Michigan.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Utah State's season: -3 wins; Kent State's season: +4 wins
- Utah State's momentum: -1 win; Kent State's momentum: +0 wins
- Utah State glad to be here? no; Kent State glad to be here: YES
- Utah State Over/underconfident? maybe; Kent State Over/underconfident? no
- Utah State time zones from home: 1; Kent State time zones from home: 1;
- Utah State coaching situation: unchanged; Kent State coaching situation: unchanged
Here we see a big difference in program expectations, one that might come into play. Utah State was 11-2 last year; Kent State was 2-10. This year they're in the same bowl game. Even more important, possibly, is that Utah State has only missed a bowl once in the last 8 years, while Kent State hasn't been to a bowl since 2012. This is probably the biggest factor in terms of motivation.
Utah State started 4-2 and ended 7-5, winning 3 of 4 at the end. Kent State was 3-3 in both halves of the season, but finished with 3 wins—all of them needed to go bowling. Both teams are playing pretty far from home geographically.
Final analysis
If we only looked at these teams' play vs. their sole FCS opponent, Utah State would be favored by 50 points. But looking at the 11 other games, against FBS opponents, it gets to be pretty close. And Kent State finished the season very well, while Utah State was inconsistent to say the least, leaving the door open for the Flashes to catch the Aggies on a bad day.
How might that happen? Turnovers are one way. Utah State has thrown a lot of interceptions this year, and it could be Kent State's time to finally get a few—it might be the only way for Kent State's D to be effective. But Kent State's ground game might really get going against Utah State's questionable defense, too.
If the game comes down to motivation—as many of these early bowl games seem to—then the edge appears to be with Kent State, competing in their first bowl game in 7 years, and having earned it with a solid 3-game run. Utah State can't be quite as excited to be here after a double-digit winning season, and could take Kent State lightly to boot. Kent State is actually the better team over the last half of the season. We look for the upset here.
Prediction: Kent State 33, Utah State 29
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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