View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
First Responder Bowl in Dallas, TX
Time: Monday, December 30 at 12:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5)
It's Western vs. Western out in Dallas, Texas. And we get to find out how Western Michigan plays on a neutral field.
Vegas line/spread: Western Kentucky by 3 1/2 (over/under 55)
Not much movement in the line, but the o/u is well up from 51.5
Strength power rating: #79 Western Michigan 25, #75 Western Kentucky 23
Adjusted for turnovers: Western Kentucky 25-22
Median game rating: Western Michigan 25-21
These aren't the greatest teams but it should make for a close game. Vegas has Western Kentucky by a field goal spread while our Strength Power rating favors Western Michigan by 2. Note that our rankings are for our FBS-games only rating. In our All-Division ratings we use every game, and there the Broncos outrank the Hilltoppers #78 to #86. We'll see why there's a difference when we look at the schedules. Interestingly the Hilltoppers become our favorite if we screen out turnovers.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3.5 Spread |
| Western Kentucky | 48% | 46% |
| Western Michigan | 52% | 54% |
As noted, we favor Western Michigan, but it's very close. Even with a 2 point mean difference between the team, Western Michigan only wins 52% of the game comparison. And against a 3 1/2 point spread, they cover 54% of the time. That means in all 144 game comparisons, only 2%—which would be 3 instances—have Western Kentucky winning by 3.5 or less. Normally when teams rank so close there are many instances of narrow spreads.
When Western Kentucky has the ball
| Western Kentucky scoring offense: #98 |
Western Michigan scoring defense: #78 |
| Western Kentucky total offense: #96 |
Western Michigan total defense: #103 |
| Western Kentucky rush offense: #119 |
Western Michigan rush defense: #116 |
| Western Kentucky pass offense: #44 |
Western Michigan pass defense: #82 |
The Hilltoppers aren't very good on offense, but they're in luck because the Broncos are bad on defense. In fact in the one area where WKU is decent—passing—Western Michigan is pretty poor. And the teams are equally bad on the ground game, so it's about even there. Hilltopper QB Ty Storey took over for the injured Steve Duncan after 3 games and has 2,209 passing yards and 12 TDs.
When Western Michigan has the ball
| Western Michigan scoring offense: #67 |
Western Kentucky scoring defense: #47 |
| Western Michigan total offense: #59 |
Western Kentucky total defense: #37 |
| Western Michigan rush offense: #29 |
Western Kentucky rush defense: #61 |
| Western Michigan pass offense: #80 |
Western Kentucky pass defense: #38 |
Western Michigan scores enough to almost rank in the top 25 in scoring—in raw figures. Corrected for their schedule they're only #67, which means Western Kentucky's defense should be able to hang with them. On the ground is where the Broncos would appear to have an advantage, with LeVante Bellamy (1,412 yards) carrying the ball.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Western Kentucky #75 Western Michigan #128
The Hilltoppers aren't good on special teams but the Broncos are abysmal. In placekicking, for instance, they've made just 8 of 15 attempts. This could be important in a close game.
Western Kentucky's season (8-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to FCS teams (1)
- Central Arkansas 28-35
- @Florida Int'l 20-14
- =Louisville 21-38
- Alabama-Birmingham 20-13
- @Old Dominion 20-3
- Army 17-8
- UNC-Charlotte 30-14
- @Marshall 23-26
- Florida Atlantic 24-35
- @Arkansas 45-19
- @Southern Miss 28-10
- Middle Tennessee St 31-26
We saw how Western Kentucky ranked ahead of Western Michigan in a power rating consisting of FBS-only games, but when all contests are included, they rank worse? Well, the Hilltoppers' loss to Central Arkansas is the reason. It's by far their worst game and brings their rating down quite a bit, enough for them to become the underdog. As it was the first game of the season, can it be discounted? Maybe so, especially considering the steady improvement the Hilltoppers seem to show.
Right after that bad loss, the Hilltoppers won 5 of 6, losing only to Louisville and beating bowl-bound FIU, UAB, and Charlotte. Close losses to Marshall and Florida Atlantic followed but then they had two great games, beating Arkansas 45-19 and Southern Miss 28-10. The Hilltoppers finished on a 3-game win streak. It's probably fair to say the first game was a weird fluke, as it's such an outlier.
Western Michigan's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (2)
- Monmouth NJ 48-13
- @Michigan St 17-51
- Georgia St 57-10
- @Syracuse 33-52
- Central Michigan 31-15
- @Toledo 24-31
- Miami OH 38-16
- @Eastern Michigan 27-34
- Bowling Green 49-10
- Ball St 35-31
- @Ohio U. 37-34 OT
- @Northern Illinois 14-17
Remember how we noted in the game-comparison section that there weren't any narrow wins? That WKU either won big or lost big against Western Mich, with few games where the Hilltoppers beat the Broncos by just a few points? This chart says it all. Western Michigan either wins big or loses big. Their wins are good performances, their losses are terrible ones. They're a rare team where that's the case; normally a team has a loss or two that are superior to many of their wins. But not the Broncos. It got less extreme as the season went on—the losses looked better, the wins looked less impressive, but the Broncos are the ultimate team where you don't know what you're going to get. As such, we assume they will either win by a lot or loss by a lot to Western Kentucky.
We have to look at this chart a little more, as it's the weirdest one I've seen. Ultimately, it looks like home field is good to Western Michigan and road play is their kryptonite. They play 27 points better at home than on the road. So what is their true strength? Are they a great home team, or a bad road team? Because that's the only way we can determine how they should do on a neutral field.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Western Kentucky's season: +5 wins; Western Michigan's season: +0 wins
- Western Kentucky's momentum: +0 wins; Western Michigan's momentum: +1 win
- Western Kentucky glad to be here? YES; Western Michigan glad to be here: probably not?
- Western Kentucky time zones from home: 0; Western Michigan time zones from home: 1
- Western Kentucky coaching situation: unchanged; Western Michigan coaching situation: unchanged
Western Kentucky had a turnaround season of epic proportions, going from 3-9 to 8-4. That will make you glad to be at just about any bowl. Western Michigan finished 7-5 like last year and lost their last game, where a win would have put them in the MAC title game. So they're not in a good mood according to coach Tim Lester. The last time Western Michigan went to Dallas for a bowl game, three years ago, it was the Cotton Bowl and they were 13-0.
And below we'll cover Western Michigan's home vs. road play and what a neutral field might mean.
Final analysis
Out power rating picks different winners depending on whether we count FCS game in the mix. We noted that it's probably more accurate to represent Western Kentucky without their first loss. Doing so turns a narrow loss into a narrower win. We also noted how on special teams, the Broncos' kicking game is so bad it could be a factor in a close game. So case, closed, the Hilltoppers win a close game, right?
Not so fast. We also saw how Western Michigan doesn't lose close games. Or rather, they don't play an 'average' game, they either play a terrible game and lose, or a great game and win. There is no in-between for them. Which version of Western Michigan shows up will determine the outcome of the game, or so it seems. But their game play corresponds to home vs. road play, and this game in on a neutral field. Maybe Western Michigan will finally play at their (mean) average level.
After some consideration, it seems that the Broncos are probably outperforming at home. There's more variation in their performance, while their road play is fairly static. We're going to assume their neutral field team plays like their road team, an assumption that pretty much concedes that our prediction will favor the Hilltoppers. WKU will be a lot more motivated by their turnaround season than the Broncos are after losing their shot at the MAC title game.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, Western Michigan 17
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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