View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ
Time: Saturday, December 28 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson Tigers (13-0)
It doesn't get better than this: Undefeated and seemingly invincible Ohio State takes on undefeated defending national champion Clemson for the right to advance to the title game.
Vegas line/spread: Clemson by 2 1/2 (over/under 62.5)
Moves: Despite my disbelief, the line is actually up from 2 to 2 1/2 in the last week, the o/u dipping from 63.5. The line pretty much stayed in the 2 to 2.5 range, with the o/u settling in at 62.5 by game day.
Strength power rating: #1 Ohio State 38, #3 Clemson 27
Adjusted for turnovers: Ohio State 38-27
Median game rating: Ohio State 43-25
According to some of our power ratings these are the two best teams in the nation (in our All-Division power rating, Clemson is #2; they are #3 counting just FBS games). In other words, this deserves to be the national championship game. I am very surprised Clemson is favored here; maybe I will change my mind by the end of the page! Our power rating says that the Buckeyes should not only be favored, but pretty heavily. We have the Buckeyes by 11, and if using median rather than mean game ratings, by 18.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. +2 Spread |
| Ohio State | 74% | 80% |
| Clemson | 26% | 20% |
Since the Strength power rating (heavily) favors Ohio State, the game ratings on which it is based do also. We take each game the teams have played and compare the performances with all the other team's performances. Since each team played 13 games, this yields 169 (13 x 13) projected game results, all based on real results. We find that Ohio State wins nearly 3 of 4 comparisons, and 5 in 6 against a 2 point spread.
When Ohio State has the ball
| Ohio State scoring offense: #1 |
Clemson scoring defense: #1 |
| Ohio State total offense: #2 |
Clemson total defense: #1 |
| Ohio State rushing offense: #2 |
Clemson rushing defense: #14 |
| Ohio State passing offense: #24 |
Clemson passing defense: #2 |
This could be the best offense in the country vs. the best defense in the country. The teams have the top scoring offense and defense in the nation when only FBS games are counted (otherwise Clemson drops to the #2 defense and Ohio State is #1 there too). In total offense it's #2 vs. #1. In any case, Ohio State's offense and Clemson's defense are arguably the best in the nation.
The Buckeyes running game ranks #2 behind JK Robbins; 1,829 yards and 20 TDs. Dual threat QB Justin Fields helps out there, too, and leads a top 25 passing attack with 2,953 yards and an unreal 40:1 TD:int ratio. Chris Olave (799 yards) is his top target yardage-wise while KJ Hill has the most receptions (51). The only concern here is obviously Fields' injured knee, which he recently said was "80-85%" and that he can't move like he wants to, just a few days before the game.
The Clemson defense has been unyielding all season. They're #2 against the pass in adjusted per-play yardage; the rush defense isn't quite rated that high and their big challenge will be to slow down the OSU ground game. Certainly the Tiger D will take it as a challenge.
When Clemson has the ball
| Clemson scoring offense: #5 |
Ohio State scoring defense: #2 |
| Clemson total offense: #7 |
Ohio State total defense: #2 |
| Clemson rushing offense: #16 |
Ohio State rushing defense: #10 |
| Clemson passing offense: #20 |
Ohio State passing defense: #1 |
Clemson has one of the top offenses in the country by any measure, but so, too does Ohio State have a top defense—maybe the top defense: if we include FCS games in our measure, Ohio State moves to the top of the list as Clemson's D slips to #2. But that's not important, since defenses don't play each other; the Buckeye D has to face the Clemson offense.
And it's quite a challenge. Both in rushing and passing, Clemson ranks in the top 20 in adjusted per-game yardage. Travis Etienne has 1,500 yards on the ground and Lyn-J Dixon and QB Trevor Lawrence combine for another 1,000+. Through the air, Lawrence accounts for 3,172 yards and 34 TDs and 8 interceptions, and his ratio over the last 10 games is 29:3. Tee Higgins (1,082 yards) is the long-ball receiver while Justyn Ross (55 rec) is the top target.
The Buckeye defense rates well both against the run (#10) and against the pass, where their adjusted per-attempt yardage yielded ranks #1 in the country (we cite per-play stats here because they're more meaningful in terms of the passing game). The Buckeyes boast DE Chase Young, to some the top player in the nation. Young has a nation-leading 16.5 sacks in 11 games this year.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Ohio State #62 Clemson #120
As great as these teams are, they don't excel on special teams. Ohio State is just average, while the Tigers are pretty deplorable. Clemson kickers are just 13 of 21 on field goals.
Ohio State's season (13-0)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (5)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- Florida Atlantic 45-21
- #21 Cincinnati 42-0
- @Indiana 51-10
- Miami OH 76-5
- @Nebraska 48-7
- Michigan St 34-10
- @Northwestern 52-3
- #8 Wisconsin 38-7
- Maryland 73-14
- @Rutgers 56-21
- #10 Penn State 28-17
- @#14 Michigan 56-27
- =#8 Wisconsin 34-21
Ohio State has a chart unlike any college football team in history. Eight of their 13 games are off-the-charts or nearly so. Their weakest games were a 45-21 win over 10-3 FAU, a 34-10 win vs. Michigan State, and a 56-21 win at Rutgers. Those are pretty dominant "weak" games. Even their supposedly weak Wisconsin win in the Big Ten championship would be the envy of most teams, and it was their 9th best performance.
And these performances weren't beatdowns of terrible teams; the Buckeyes beat 9 bowl opponents, and have 5 wins over Committee top 25 teams, the most of any team in the nation, even more than LSU. Seven of their best performances came in the first 9 games, making their last four outings look weaker by comparison. Are the Buckeyes slipping, just a bit? If so it's on defense, as their offensive ratings have stayed high. And their only "bad" defensive game was giving up 21 to Rutgers, where motivation was probably pretty low after building a 49-7 lead. Still, something to consider, but we should also consider that the Buckeye defense shut out Wisconsin in the 2nd half of their game; that's what they can do when they're motivated.
Clemson's season (13-0)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (8)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- Georgia Tech 52-14
- Texas A&M 24-10
- @Syracuse 41-6
- UNC-Charlotte 52-10
- @North Carolina 21-20
- Florida St 45-14
- @Louisville 45-10
- Boston College 59-7
- Wofford 59-14
- @North Carolina St 55-10
- Wake Forest 52-3
- @South Carolina 38-3
- =#24 Virginia 62-17
Clemson beat almost as many bowl-eligible opponents as Ohio State, but they only beat one Playoff Committee top 25 team—#24 Virginia, in the ACC championship game. Clemson's worst game was of course at North Carolina, where they were lucky to avoid a loss that might have put them out of the playoff. Since then they've gotten better, and there seems to be an upward curve to their game play, culminating in their best game yet vs. Virginia. Mainly it's on offense, where they've played a lot better in the last six games.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Ohio State's season: +1 win; Clemson's season: +0 win
- Ohio State's momentum: +0 wins; Clemson's momentum: +0 wins
- Ohio State glad to be here? YES; Clemson glad to be here: YES
- Ohio State time zones from home: 1; Clemson time zones from home: 2
- Ohio State coaching situation: unchanged; Clemson coaching situation: unchanged
For Clemson, another year, another undefeated season. Is it possible that a team gets tired of winning? Probably not, but defending national champions tend to lack a bit of hunger compared to their foes. And Ohio State has extra incentive to win this game: revenge. Clemson humiliated Ohio State, 31-0, the last time they met in the playoff in 2016.
We usually only cover coaching when a coach has left or been fired, but we should consider experience here. Dabo Swinney has been to the last 4 playoff cycles and is, by now, an old pro at coaching big games. Ohio State's Ryan Day, on the other hand, is green; this is his first full year as head coach anywhere. That's a big difference.
Final analysis
To me this is the national title game. The only team that might have a chance against the winner is an LSU team playing at home (which is what the winner will probably face).
The case for Ohio State
We need to talk about Clemson's schedule. Points-based power ratings are schedule-independent; you can just beat your lesser opponents by more points, and it should all even out. That's what Clemson did, and that's why they are still highly-rated by power ratings even though any top 10 team could have gone undefeated with their slate, and maybe some plain top 25 teams, too, with a little luck. The Tigers didn't face anyone ranked higher than #24.
So what does that mean? There's the idea that a weak schedule makes a team soft and unprepared to face a much better foe. They don't know what they're in for when they face the real deal. In Clemson's case that is not going to happen; most of this team played Notre Dame and Alabama in last year's playoff.
But the real question is, will they be able to play as well as they have this season against weak foes? Let's look at their offense and defense, and the best defense and offense those units have faced. We'll do the same for Ohio State.
Clemson's defense faced only one top 25 offense: Louisville (#25). They held the Cardinals to 10 points; #28 offense Virginia scored 17 points. Ohio State defense held Wisconsin (#10 offense) to 7 points and 21 points in two meeting; #15 Michigan to 27; and #18 Penn State to 17. Though the Tigers haven't faced any top offenses, their performance against good offenses has been solid.
On offense, Clemson might have a problem with Ohio State's D. They only scored 24 at home against Texas A&M (#25 defense), 38 vs South Carolina (#39 defense), and 21 against #48 North Carolina. Those aren't great showings, and those defenses are nothing like Ohio State's. Meanwhile the Buckeyes put up 38 and 34 against #5 defense Wisconsin, 28 on #7 Penn State, and 56 at #12 Michigan. If Clemson needs even a couple of series to adjust to facing what is by far the best defense they've faced, it could be costly.
Another interesting area is special teams. Ohio State isn't great there but they have a decent kicker. Meanwhile Clemson kickers are just 13 of 21 on field goals, something that could make a difference in a close game.
We think Ohio State will be the more motivated team. Ohio State wants revenge for the 31-0 beatdown at Clemson's hands four years ago. And as defending national champs Clemson won't be quite as hungry as the Buckeyes.
The case for Clemson
There are some metrics and ideas that point to a Clemson win. One is coaching. How will Ohio State's Ryan Day handle the pressure of the College Football Playoff? This is his first year as head coach. Anywhere! He's coached big games this year but none this big. Meanwhile Dabo Swinney has coached the last four playoffs, three national championship games, and two national championship wins. This is an 'intangible' that really means something.
We pointed out Clemson's lack of production against even borderline top 25 defenses. But has Clemson's offense improved in the 2nd half of the season? Very likely so. For one thing, Trevor Lawrence has stopped throwing interceptions; he has just 3 in the last 10 games, and none in the last six games, the same stretch where Clemson's offense raised to a higher level. If we compare Clemson and Ohio State using just the last six games, Ohio State is still ahead, but only by 1 point. Use the last 4 games, where Ohio State has looked a bit weaker, and Clemson wins by 7. Of course, taking an arbitrary number of games can give you almost any result: a 2-game sample is an Ohio State win again. But using half the season can be telling if it gives a big difference between that and the full season. The bottom line is that in more recent games, Clemson has improved while Ohio State has slipped a bit.
And if Justin Fields' knee isn't 100% before the game, then clearly that is a problem for Ohio State, when facing a Clemson defense.
Conclusion
The basic matchup is pretty close and hard to tell what will happen. You have two great offenses and against great defenses, and both teams can run and pass the ball and have obliterated their opponents. Anything can happen, and of course either team can win. Our power rating favors Ohio State, and Vegas favors the Tigers. To get other insights, you have to go "off-road."
Only a few real arguments favor Clemson. Coaching, and recent play favoring the Tigers. In the latter case, a sufficiently large sample just makes the outcome close, but still has Ohio State on top. In the former, it's hard to quantify coaching's effect; it seems it would more likely come into play in a very close game, or for motivating the team.
And as we've said, we think Ohio State will be more motivated. Look at what happened when they were motivated against Michigan. There's really no way Swinney can make Clemson more motivated than Ohio State (or LSU or Oklahoma, for that matter).
A possible concern for Ohio State is Justin Fields' injured knee, but he did well enough against Wisconsin's great D in the 2nd half. It's a potential limiting factor on Ohio State's scoring, not a complete game-changer—unless he re-injures it during the game.
Also in Ohio State's favor, Clemson's underperformance on offense against borderline top 25 defenses is real. It's impossible to say how they will handle Ohio State's defense but logic suggests they will do worse than they did against the just-good defenses they faced. They've improved on offense as the year went on but this team, this year, has yet to be tested against a truly good defense.
The kicking game also favors the Buckeyes too if things are close.
The oddsmakers are really good and you should always take note of the lines they set. But that's the standard you're picking against. If our power rating came out with Clemson as an 11-point favorite, we would question it because of Clemson's weak schedule; a blind spot in points-based power ratings is when strong teams run up the score against weak one. But Ohio State's schedule is solid; Clemson is the one with the weak schedule, so if anything their rating is inflated.
So we're sticking with our power rating over Vegas, and after all that analysis just using its 38-27 score estimate, but backing off a little bit due to uncertainty about Justin Field's mobility. Can't wait to see what happens.
Prediction: Ohio State 34, Clemson 27
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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