View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Cure Bowl in Orlando, FL
Time: Saturday, December 21 at 2:30pm ET
TV: CBS Sports Network
Georgia Southern Eagles (7-5) vs. Liberty Flames (7-5)
Liberty makes it to a bowl game in their first year of eligibility as a full-fledged FBS team; Georgia Southern did the same back in 2015. This game will match a very run-based team against a pass-based one.
Vegas line/spread: Georgia Southern by 5 1/2 (over/under 58)
Moves: A jittery line. It started at 6 and dropped to 5 points, then 4. By game day it was back up to 5 1/2 however. The over/under moved up from 57.5 to 60.5, and back down again.
Strength power rating: #76 Georgia Southern 30, #104 Liberty 22
Adjusted for turnovers: Georgia Southern 28-21
Median game rating: Georgia Southern 26-23
The Eagles are favored by just under a touchdown, while our Strength power rating is giving 8. The median rating diminishes Georgia Southern quite a bit while boosting Liberty, suggesting the former had a few very good games that were outliers while Liberty had a stinker that is dragging it down.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6 Spread |
| Georgia Southern | 65% | 51% |
| Liberty | 35% | 49% |
The median rating spread of 3 points gives a hint as to why the original 6-point spread is nearly a 50/50 proposition, even while the average spread is 8 points by the Strength power rating.
When Georgia Southern has the ball
| Georgia Southern scoring offense: #97 |
Liberty scoring defense: #100 |
| Georgia Southern total offense: #119 |
Liberty total defense: #100 |
| Georgia Southern rushing offense: #17 |
Liberty rushing defense: #108 |
| Georgia Southern passing offense: #130 |
Liberty passing defense: #77 |
The Eagles don't rate very will in adjusted offense, either by scoring or total yardage, but Liberty's defense is just as shallow. What stands out, of course, is Georgia Southern's ground game, one of the most prolific in the nation (#11 before adjustment for opposition). The Eagles' option attack boasts three rushers with over 600 yards, including QB Shai Werts, who has nearly the same yardage rushing (676) as he does passing (704). Which brings us to the obvious: option teams rarely pass, and Georgia Southern is no exception, ranking dead last in the FBS in adjusted yardage. Unfortunately for Liberty their rush defense is pretty poor.
When Liberty has the ball
| Liberty scoring offense: #99 |
Georgia Southern scoring defense: #52 |
| Liberty total offense: #93 |
Georgia Southern total defense: #44 |
| Liberty rushing offense: #117 |
Georgia Southern rushing defense: #28 |
| Liberty passing offense: #35 |
Georgia Southern passing defense: #83 |
Liberty and Georgia Southern have about the same effectiveness on offense, it's how they get there that differs. Despite two 700+ yard rushers Liberty's run game is weak when adjusted for their opponents' defenses, but they pass quite effectively: QB Stephen Calvert has 3,393 passing yards and a 26:5 ratio. Over 1/3 of that yardage (1,333) go to Antonio Gandy-Golden (9 TDs). Georgia Southern's pass defense is suspect; their staunch run defense is somewhat wasted, but should come in handy to keep Liberty from changing it up.
Georgia Southern's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- @#1 LSU 3-55
- Maine 26-18
- @#18 Minnesota 32-35
- Louisiana-Lafayette 24-37
- @South Alabama 20-17 2OT
- Coastal Carolina 30-27 3OT
- New Mexico St 41-7
- @#20 Appalachian St 24-21
- @Troy 28-49
- Louisiana-Monroe 51-29
- @Arkansas St 33-38
- Georgia St 38-10
Georgia Southern dropped an early game to #1 LSU, 55-3, but almost won at #18 Minnesota. At 1-3, two overtime wins jump-started their season and they beat #20 Appalachian State 24-21. They followed it with their worst loss, to 5-7 Troy. Two more excellent games followed, with a bad loss in-between, as the Eagles became more erratic toward the end but won 6 of their last 8.
Liberty's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (2)
- Syracuse 0-24
- @Louisiana-Lafayette 14-35
- Buffalo 35-17
- Hampton 62-27
- New Mexico 17-10
- @New Mexico St 20-13
- Maine 59-44
- @Rutgers 34-44
- @Massachusetts 63-21
- @Brigham Young 24-31
- @#24 Virginia 27-55
- New Mexico St 49-28
Liberty opened with their worst loss, a shutout at home against 5-7 Syracuse. They played a lot better against 9-3 UL-Lafayette and then beat Buffalo, easily their best win. After that, an easy schedule payed dividends as they beat two FCS teams, edged 2-10 New Mexico, clubbed 1-11 UMass, and beat 2-10 New Mexico State not once but twice. They also fell to 2-10 Rutgers.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Georgia Southern's season: -2 wins; Liberty's season: +1 win
- Georgia Southern's momentum: +1 win; Liberty's momentum: -1 win
- Georgia Southern glad to be here? maybe; Liberty glad to be here: YES
- Georgia Southern time zones from home: 0; Liberty time zones from home: 0;
- Georgia Southern coaching situation: unchanged; Liberty coaching situation: unchanged
The big thing here is Liberty's status as a brand-new bowl team on their first try at eligibility. Georgia Southern was in a similar situation in 2015 and they won their bowl convincingly, beating Bowling Green 58-27. Will Liberty do the same thing to them?
It's true, the Eagles had a worse season this year than their 10-win 2018. It's hard to say how much impact that will have, but coupled with Liberty's first-time bowl hype, it seems reasonable to think that the Flames are the more motivated team.
Final analysis
Georgia Southern clearly looks like the better team. Whether that will be the case on the particular day of the Cure Bowl remains to be seen. Bowl season is full of surprises, and the early games are no exception.
The Eagles should win by more than a touchdown if their average self shows up. On the other hand, their erratic play lately suggests that a blowout win or substantial upset loss is more likely than a by-the-numbers touchdown victory.
By pure mechanics, the question is: can Liberty's defense stop the option? Their lack of success stopping the run all season suggests that they cannot. And that would point to a comfortable Eagles win. But Liberty coach Hugh Freeze has faced the Eagles' option before—when at Mississippi—and he won, 37-27. He also beat Georgia Tech in a bowl game. That was with Ole Miss players, though.
Liberty does have a few weeks to prepare, and teams that have time to prepare usually fare pretty well against option teams. Still, Georgia Southern is 2-0 in bowl appearances.
Liberty also undoubtedly has the edge in motivation and excitement at being in their first bowl. This can cut both ways; for every team that has excelled like Georgia Southern in its debut, another has fallen flat.
With both teams' offenses built to exploit the other team's defense, there should be a lot of scoring. We think Georgia Southern will score regularly on the ground and Liberty will keep coming back with the pass, but fall short in their first bowl.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 45, Liberty 37
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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