View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX
Time: Saturday, December 28 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN
#10 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) vs. #17 Memphis Tigers (12-1)
A great bowl game matching Penn State vs. a very deserving Memphis team, prompting lots of great speculation above motivation and psychology, not to mention Xs and Os, to determine the winner.
Vegas line/spread: Penn State by 6 1/2 (over/under 58.5)
The spread has remained steady over the few weeks, while the over dropped a couple of points.
Strength power rating: #8 Penn State 36, #18 Memphis 25
Adjusted for turnovers: Penn State 34-25
Median game rating: Penn State 37-23
Penn State is favored by not quite a touchdown by Vegas, while our Strength power rating calls for a double-digit Nittany Lion win. Why the discrepancy? Wait, we haven't gotten to the psychology yet! (or the Xs and Os)
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6.5 Spread |
| Penn State | 71% | 59% |
| Memphis | 29% | 41% |
Because our power rating is so high on Penn State, it stands to reason that the Nittany Lions will "win" most of the game-comparisons, even against the spread.
When Penn State has the ball
| Penn State scoring offense: #19 |
Memphis scoring defense: #42 |
| Penn State total offense: #39 |
Memphis total defense: #50 |
| Penn State rushing offense: #32 |
Memphis rushing defense: #49 |
| Penn State passing offense: #61 |
Memphis passing defense: #30 |
Now we get to the Xs and Os, or at least a broad statistical summary of them. Penn State has a very good offense, and Memphis' defense is not terrible. The Lions run the ball pretty well, and that's Memphis' least solid defensive area, but the Tigers are not pushovers. QB Sean Clifford manages the ball well (22 TDs to just 6 ints) and runs well enough to be the Lions' #2 net rusher. #1 carrier Journey Brown averages 6.1 ypc. The Nittany Lions are good in the red zone, too, explaining their higher scoring offense ranking than in yardage.
When Memphis has the ball
| Memphis scoring offense: #9 |
Penn State scoring defense: #7 |
| Memphis total offense: #17 |
Penn State total defense: #31 |
| Memphis rushing offense: #28 |
Penn State rushing defense: #4 |
| Memphis passing offense: #29 |
Penn State passing defense: #35 |
Now here is the fun Xs and Os comparison: a legit top ten offense vs. a top ten defense. The Tigers aren't a one-trick pony either, having both solid running and passing games. QB Brady White has 3,560 passing yards, 33 TDs against 9 interceptions. RB Kenneth Gainwell has 1,425 yards on the ground. The Tigers aren't easily slowed down, let alone stopped.
But Penn State has done a lot of stopping on defense this year. Their rushing defense is particularly lockdown, and though their per-play pass numbers aren't as good as their per-game rush ranking, they have a gaudy 39 sacks this year. Of concern to Memphis, the Tigers will be missing two key tight ends: starter Scottie Dill (who left the team) and Joey Magnifico (#5 receiver with 335 yards, knee injury).
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Penn State #1 Memphis #2
We told you this was a great matchup. In addition to the great records and solid offenses and defense matchups, you get the top two special teams squads in the nation. Much better than seeing teams flub punts and extra points.
Penn State's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- Idaho 79-7
- Buffalo 45-13
- Pittsburgh 17-10
- @Maryland 59-0
- Purdue 35-7
- @#17 Iowa 17-12
- #14 Michigan 28-21
- @Michigan St 28-7
- @#18 Minnesota 26-31
- Indiana 34-27
- @#2 Ohio State 17-28
- Rutgers 27-6
Penn State started with a bang, putting up 79 on recent-FBS defector Idaho, and going off the charts in being Maryland 59-0. In between they struggled to beat Pitt, 17-10, a harbinger of dud games to come. That didn't happen for a while though as they rattled off four excellent performances and beat #17 Iowa and #14 Michigan back-to-back in tough scrums. But they fell flat against Minnesota and lost; that carried over to the Indiana game which they nearly gave away, too. Still controlling their destiny to the Big Ten title game and a Playoff berth, the Nittany Lions actually played a great game against Ohio State but it was too tall a task. That loss, too, carried over as they struggled with doormat Rutgers, which begs the question, is the disappointment out of their system yet?
Though the offense stumbled at times, the defense never really let them down, with 5 opponents held to single digits and no one scoring more than 31.
Memphis's season (12-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- Mississippi 15-10
- Southern U. 55-24
- @South Alabama 42-6
- #23 Navy 35-23
- @Louisiana-Monroe 52-33
- @Temple 28-30
- Tulane 47-17
- @Tulsa 42-41
- SMU 54-48
- @Houston 45-27
- @South Florida 49-10
- #21 Cincinnati 34-24
- #21 Cincinnati 29-24
Memphis certainly got short shrift from the Playoff Committee. Not that they deserved consideration for the Playoff, but they were clearly underranked at #17, at least by résumé. Their sole loss was to a decent Temple team by 2 points, and they beat #23 Navy as well as #21 Cincinnati twice. That's three top 25 wins, putting them in rare company. Add a win over 10-2 SMU, who deserved a top 25 spot, and they have a better résumé than Georgia or Oklahoma. Again, not Playoff worthy due to their lower power rating, but they should be nearer to the top 10 at 12-1.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Penn State's season: +1 win; Memphis's season: +4 wins
- Penn State's momentum: -2 wins; Memphis's momentum: +1 win
- Penn State glad to be here? mostly; Memphis glad to be here: YES
- Penn State time zones from home: 1; Memphis time zones from home: 0
- Penn State coaching situation: unchanged; Memphis coaching situation: coach left
This looked like it was going to be easy. Psychology is firmly on Memphis side, right?
The 12-1 Tigers are living a dream as the Group of Five representative to a major bowl, playing Penn State, a school synonymous with college football. This is the big time. How could it be better?
Meanwhile Penn State is still chafing from missed opportunity; they had their shot at Ohio State and blew it. Even after the Minnesota loss they still had hope: beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten, and go to the playoff as a 1-loss conference champ. It would have happened, too, if not for the loss to the Buckeyes which killed the dream. You can tell from the tepid Rutgers win, it still stung badly a week later.
So all advantages to Memphis...but no. Florida State announced that Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is coming to Tallahassee. Now the Tigers are without the leader than brought them so far. They'll make do with an internal hire to keep team unity during the bowl game, but there is some luster off the season. How much? Hard to say. It might not mean very much, but it could mean a lot.
Final analysis
What can we say? This is a great game. Two deserving teams with double-digit wins. Great matchups with a top ten offense and top ten defense. The two best special teams units in college football! And some complex psychology to sort out.
Penn State has the advantage in Xs and Os. The Nittany Lion defense hasn't let them down all year, and they will do their best to slow down the prolific Tiger attack. The Lion offense is more than good enough to keep up, and with the defense's help, surpass the Tigers for the win. The question is, will they?
It depends on how motivated Penn State is. We saw the big letdown against lowly Rutgers...will it carry over? The Rutgers game just didn't matter to the team, and they played accordingly. Certainly this game means more, but after facing Michigan and Ohio State will they underestimate the Tigers? And will they really care about the game?
Memphis wants this win to cap off a great season, and its a great opportunity. They want to show they can play with the big boys after getting little recognition for their great season. How much of a damper was put on it by the coaching change remains to be seen.
Speaking of coaching, Penn State's James Franklin is a good motivator. He should have the team back in the swing of things given the time off. Will it be enough? I think the defense will definitely be motivated by the challenge of Memphis' offense. But it's Penn State's own offense that needs the motivation.
If Norvell hadn't left, I think Memphis would rise to the occasion and win. In this game on the big stage, the team has to be a bit shook by his departure. Penn State's defense will rise to the occasion, while their offense remains a bit gun-shy, leading to a surprisingly low-scoring game that the Nittany Lions should narrowly win. Update: I've backed off of having it nearly as low-scoring as I had earlier, but stick with the general pick. This is a hard one to figure out, and could go many ways. So I will pick Penn State, but not against the spread, as the Tigers could win this even with their new coach.
Prediction: Penn State 28, Memphis 25
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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