View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
Time: Wednesday, January 1 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ABC
#13 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) vs. #14 Michigan Wolverines (9-3)
Both these teams have a recent history of bowl game underperformance when their season ended in a disappointing fashion, while sometimes overperforming when they have something to prove. Which case will it be for each team?
Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 7 1/2 (over/under 58.5)
This line has stayed mostly steady, up just a half point, and the over/under down a half point from open.
Strength power rating: #4 Alabama 36, #11 Michigan 30
Adjusted for turnovers: Alabama 31-29
Median game rating: Alabama 37-28
Road rating: Alabama 37-30
Though the Committee only ranked Alabama one spot higher than Michigan, they're still one of the best teams in the country and even the Wolverines are underrated. Out power rating comes up with nearly a 7 point spread to match Vegas, but the score estimate rounds to a 6 point win. It gets a lot closer when we "correct" for turnovers; here, we show what would happen if neither team wins the turnover battle.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| Alabama | 65% | 49% |
| Michigan | 35% | 51% |
A 7 point spread is almost straight down the middle according to our game-comparison system, where Alabama takes about 2/3 of the wins straight up but it's close to 50/50 when you give a touchdown.
When Alabama has the ball
| Alabama scoring offense: #3 |
Michigan scoring defense: #12 |
| Alabama total offense: #4 |
Michigan total defense: #7 |
| Alabama rushing offense: #63 |
Michigan rushing defense: #3 |
| Alabama passing offense: #3 |
Michigan passing defense: #15 |
Alabama's offense was one of the very best in the country. The key word is "was" because without Tua Tagovailoa's 2,840 passing yards, 71% completion rate, and 33:3 touchdown to interception ratio, they might not be the same. Mac Jones has filled in admirably, completing 70% for 1,176 yards and 11 TDs vs. 3 picks, but much of that was in mop-up duty against Arkansas and against FCS foe Western Carolina. He had 4 TD throws against Auburn but also 2 pick sixes. Regardless, he still has Devonta Smith (1,200 yards) to throw to, which would make things easier for anyone. RB Najee Harris has over 1,000 yards on the ground but Michigan's D is solid there.
When Michigan has the ball
| Michigan scoring offense: #15 |
Alabama scoring defense: #22 |
| Michigan total offense: #35 |
Alabama total defense: #14 |
| Michigan rushing offense: #51 |
Alabama rushing defense: #27 |
| Michigan passing offense: #30 |
Alabama passing defense: #17 |
Michigan puts points on the board at a good clip, while Alabama's defense is having an off year. But the Tide still outrank the Wolverines in every offensive breakdown listed. QB Shea Patterson had a decent year, throwing for 2,828 yards with a 22:6 TD:int ratio. The thing that might help Michigan the most is how many of Alabama's defensive players are coveted by the pros. Several of them considered skipping the bowl game, since the Tide didn't make the Playoff for the first time in the Playoff's history. Two starters on defense, LB Terrell Lewis and CB Trayvon Diggs have opted to prep for the NFL rather than slum it against Michigan and risk injury.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Alabama #94 Michigan #49
A rare weakness for Alabama. We all saw that field goal bounce off the upright; the Tide placekickers made only 12 of 18 attempts this season.
Alabama's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- =Duke 42-3
- New Mexico St 62-10
- @South Carolina 47-23
- Southern Miss 49-7
- Mississippi 59-31
- @Texas A&M 47-28
- Tennessee 35-13
- Arkansas 48-7
- #1 LSU 41-46
- @Mississippi St 38-7
- Western Carolina 66-3
- @#12 Auburn 45-48
Some wonder why the Committee only has Alabama at #13, but if you look at their résumé alone—and ignore some of the dominance they showed—they're lucky to be that high. They beat three losing teams to start the season, then beat 3 bowl teams in the next 5 games. A home loss to #1 LSU, and a beatdown of Ole Miss later, and then they lost their star quarterback. Their win over Western Carolina was dominant, but that was Western Carolina. Trying to convince the Committee they were nearly the same without Tua, they instead lost to Auburn. Even had they won, they didn't have a tough enough schedule for serious Playoff consideration as a 1-loss team with no conference championship. Make no mistake though, they were one of the nation's best teams and still are even without Tua. The performance level in their 2 losses would be the envy of most teams. Is it us, though, or is there a slight downslope in their game performances? If so, it's actually the defense's fault, as they were pretty inconsistent while the offense just kept rollin'.
Michigan's season (9-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- MTSU 40-21
- Army 24-21 2OT
- @#8 Wisconsin 14-35
- Rutgers 52-0
- #16 Iowa 10-3
- @Illinois 42-25
- @#10 Penn State 21-28
- #15 Notre Dame 45-14
- @Maryland 38-7
- Michigan St 44-10
- @Indiana 39-14
- #2 Ohio State 27-56
Observers of Michigan's season noted all the same things: at first, they didn't play at the level they were expected to achieve. But then they hit their stride, and even raised their game to a level where they had a chance against Ohio State. Then they got killed. It's what makes this Michigan season so disappointing for fans: expectations were higher than reality yet again, and they lost to the Buckeyes yet again.
Ranked #7 in the AP to start the season, the opening win over Middle Tennessee was pretty suspect, and when the Wolverines needed overtime to beat Army it looked like something was wrong. Wisconsin proved that was the case, beating them 35-14. The team recovered very well from that loss, though, taking their frustrations out on Rutgers and outlasting a dogged Iowa team, same for a rejuvenated Illinois. But they fell short against Penn State, giving them Big Ten loss #2 and almost ensuring no title. Yet they bounced back again, demolishing Notre Dame for their biggest and best win in years. They beat another rival, Michigan State 44-10. They were playing at their peak when they hosted the Buckeyes, but it didn't matter. Once again, a loss, and a bad loss.
The question is, will the Wolverines bounce back after that loss, like they did after the first two? Or did it finally break their will?
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Alabama's season: -3 wins; Michigan's season: -1 win
- Alabama's momentum: -2 wins; Michigan's momentum: -1 win
- Alabama glad to be here? NO; Michigan glad to be here: maybe...
- Alabama time zones from home: 1; Michigan time zones from home: 0;
- Alabama coaching situation: unchanged; Michigan coaching situation: unchanged
These two teams have certain standards that have been determined over the last 50 years of college football, and in particular the last 10 years. Michigan's standards are high, but they're a lot lower than Alabama's. The Wolverines expect to complete for the Big Ten title. If they can't do that, then they just want to beat Ohio State. Alabama expects to be in the Playoff every year (why not? They were so far) and really anything less than a national championship is a disappointment. So while Alabama by no means considers a New Year's Day bowl an appropriate destination, Michigan might have accepted their fate enough to realize they had a pretty good year. Alabama's hopes didn't end until their last game. Michigan's last game was just adding insult to injury.
We don't know how each team will react. Michigan played great after each of their first two losses, but the loss to Ohio State was devastating. Alabama will certainly lack motivation to win this game, but they still might take out their frustrations on the Wolverines. Two de-motivated teams will take the field on New Year's Day, and rather than may the best team win, may the more depressed team lose.
Final analysis
Has Alabama quarterback Mac Jones had time to settle in? He's done well other than the two bad throws vs. Auburn, and I'm sure that was a learning experience. More time, and more reps in practice, and he could be nearly as effective as Tua. At least, he might avoid making big mistakes.
And what about on defense? Alabama's defense was already their most suspect in years and they'll be without some key starters. They always have good backups, and in this bowl situation, they might rather have a focused backup play than a jaded veteran looking ahead to the NFL.
Let's try to make sense of these teams and their motivational pros and cons during the bowl season over the last few decades or so. There have been a lot of interesting examples, we'll try to pick somewhat similar situations.
Michigan (all years with Jim Harbaugh as coach):
- 2018 #7 Michigan 15, #10 Florida 41 (Peach)
Lost opener to #3 Notre Dame, won 10 straight. Lost to #6 Ohio State 62-39. HUGE disappointment. Finished 10-2; Favored by 4 over Florida. Lost by 26 - 2017 Michigan 19, South Carolina 26 (Outback)
Started 8-2, losses to #9 Penn State, #16 MSU; lost to #6 Wisconsin, then #5 Ohio State 31-20. At 8-4, Sent to Outback Bowl, Favored by 8, lost by 6 - 2016 #6 Michigan 32, #11 FSU 33 (Orange)
Won first 9 games, tripped at unranked Iowa. Still controlled destiny, but lost to #3 Ohio State 30-27. Record: 10-2, Favored by 6 over FSU. Lost by 1. - 2015 #14 Michigan 41, #19 Florida 7 (Citrus)
Started 9-2 with losses only to ranked teams #22 Utah and #3 MSU. Lost to #7 Ohio State 42-13. Finish: 9-3; Favored by 4, won by 34.
So Michigan twice in the last 4 years (2016, 2018) controlled their own destiny to the Playoff but a loss to Ohio State killed that dream. In 2017 they already had 3 losses and in 2015, 2 losses. The 2015 situation is a lot like this year: losses to 2 ranked teams, then a 29 point loss to Ohio State, ranked #14 and sent to the Citrus Bowl. Their opponent that year (Florida) started 10-1 but lost to rival FSU then to Alabama in the SEC title game, and fell to the Citrus Bowl, so they were pretty unmotivated and it showed.
Alabama (all years under Nick Saban where they did not play for the national title or in the Playoff):
- 2013 #3 Alabama 31, #11 Oklahoma 45 (Sugar)
Started 11-0, lost to Auburn, fell from National Championship contention to the Sugar Bowl. At 11-1, favored by 15, lost by 14 - 2010 #16 Alabama 49, #7 Michigan State 7 (Capital One)
Lost to #20 South Carolina, #11 LSU, and #1 Auburn. Finished 9-3, Favored by 8, won by 42 - 2008 #4 Alabama 17, #6 Utah 31 (Sugar)
Started 12-0, lost to #2 Florida in SEC title game, fell from National Championship game to Sugar Bowl; 12-1, favored by 9, lost by 14
These are the only years, other than Saban's first year in Tuscaloosa, where they didn't play for the national championship. That's insane. 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2013 are the "dud" years and now 2019 joins them. Alabama had 2 distinct reactions: losing by 2 touchdowns to a team they were supposed to beat fairly easily, and demolishing by 42 a team they were supposed to beat fairly easily. In that game (Michigan State) it was clear they felt they had something to prove, ranked #16 and playing #7; also, the Strength power rating favored them by 19 points, so the blowout wasn't unexpected. Both other years, Alabama was headed to the national championship game but a loss to Auburn or Florida knocked them to the Sugar Bowl, where they lost by two touchdowns.
So with Michigan's 2015 season the most similar, and either 2008 or 2013 Alabama the model, history—or at least, historical similarity—favors the Wolverines. Nobody expects Michigan to win by 34 points, but 14 or 15 is possible.
So far Michigan has been bouncing back from defeat pretty solidly. So did Alabama from the LSU loss, but that was before they lost Tua and the defensive starters that will be sitting out the bowl game. The trick for Nick Saban is to convince the team they have something to prove, like the 2010 team that bounced back from a 9-3 season to destroy the Spartans. Again, no one expects the Tide to beat Michigan by 42, but many expect the Wolverines to fold again in the big game.
The same was expected of Oklahoma in 2013. We think Michigan might bounce back one more time.
Prediction: Michigan 34, Alabama 23
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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