View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Camping World Bowl in Orlando, FL
Time: Saturday, December 28 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ABC
#15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (7-5)
Seriously? A 10-2 Notre Dame team ranked in the top 25 is going to the "Camping World" bowl to play a 7-5 Iowa State? That has got to piss off fans of the Irish.
Vegas line/spread: Notre Dame by 3 1/2 (over/under 54)
The line edged up from 3 1/2 to 4, but settled back down by game day. The o/u dropped by a point.
Strength power rating: #15 Notre Dame 30, #16 Iowa State 26
Adjusted for turnovers: Iowa State 26-25
Median game rating: Notre Dame 31-27
Vegas favors the Irish, and so does our Strength power rating. Though Notre Dame only ranks one spot ahead of Iowa State in our FBS-only Strength rankings, we use all games to determine the projected score; Iowa State played by far their worst game against FCS Northern Iowa, and that drops their rating. Using FBS games only, it's Notre Dame by less than a half point—call it an overtime win.
Notre Dame recovers an unusually high number of fumbles, and that proves to mostly be luck. Subtract that and assume normal turnover results and the Irish are a 1-point dog. Median results are similar to the average result, a 4-point Notre Dame win.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3.5 Spread |
| Notre Dame | 60% | 52% |
| Iowa State | 40% | 48% |
The effect of that one terrible game by Iowa State gives the Irish 12 certain wins out of the 144 cross-comparisons, which is quite a chunk, resulting in a 60/40 win ratio for Notre Dame. They still edge out a majority against the early spread.
When Notre Dame has the ball
| Notre Dame scoring offense: #21 |
Iowa State scoring defense: #23 |
| Notre Dame total offense: #43 |
Iowa State total defense: #22 |
| Notre Dame rushing offense: #52 |
Iowa State rushing defense: #16 |
| Notre Dame passing offense: #42 |
Iowa State passing defense: #26 |
How's that for a matchup? In any case, Notre Dame has a top 25 offense, countered by Iowa State's top 25 defense. The Irish don't look nearly as good when yardage totals are used—but their #12 red zone offense insures that they turn yards into scoring at a better clip than most teams. QB Ian Book has done a serviceable job at the helm, passing for 2,787 yards and 33 TDs with just 6 interceptions, while gaining 516 net yards to be ND's #2 rusher as well. Iowa State's defense looks up to the task of slowing down the Irish across the board—but their red zone defense ranks #103, so if they let Notre Dame get close they'll give up points.
When Iowa State has the ball
| Iowa State scoring offense: #13 |
Notre Dame scoring defense: #14 |
| Iowa State total offense: #13 |
Notre Dame total defense: #18 |
| Iowa State rushing offense: #86 |
Notre Dame rushing defense: #47 |
| Iowa State passing offense: #6 |
Notre Dame passing defense: #3 |
Once again—look at that matchup. Perfect, right? All these numbers are corrected for opposition—and also, none of them count non-FBS games, so Iowa State's worst game isn't included (it was the first game of the season, so maybe that's ok). Iowa State's star on offense is Brock Purdy, who has 3,760 passing yards with 27 TDs and 9 picks. The Cyclones are a lot less balanced on offense than Notre Dame, relying heavily on the pass where they rank #6 in the nation. The Irish, to counter, rank #3 in per-play pass defense adjusted for opposition. That makes for a great showdown.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Notre Dame #73 Iowa State #113
Notre Dame's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- @Louisville 35-17
- New Mexico 66-14
- @#5 Georgia 17-23
- #24 Virginia 35-20
- Bowling Green 52-0
- #22 Southern Cal 30-27
- @#14 Michigan 14-45
- Virginia Tech 21-20
- @Duke 38-7
- #23 Navy 52-20
- Boston College 40-7
- @Stanford 45-24
Looking over Notre Dame's record, they really do have a point that they should have gone to a better bowl game. Not only were both of their losses to Playoff Committee top 25 teams, but they actually beat three other top 25 teams among their 6 wins over bowl squads! That's a great résumé, and they should have been paired with another Committee top 25 team for sure. Normally Notre Dame fans complain about anything and everything, so it starts to go in one ear and out the other; this time, their beef is legit!
The Irish played solid and consistent football in the first half of the season, losing to Georgia by a touchdown and beating Virginia and USC. The beatdown at the hands of Michigan is what made the college football world lose interest in (and lose track of) the Irish. So far fewer were paying attention by the time they destroyed a very good Navy team 52-20, part of a 5-game win streak to end the year.
Iowa State's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- Northern Iowa 29-26 3OT
- #16 Iowa 17-18
- Louisiana-Monroe 72-20
- @#7 Baylor 21-23
- TCU 49-24
- @West Virginia 38-14
- @Texas Tech 34-24
- #25 Oklahoma St 27-34
- @#4 Oklahoma 41-42
- Texas 23-21
- Kansas 41-31
- @Kansas St 17-27
Iowa State kicked off the season with a win, but it was a terrible win. Northern Iowa is a great program in the FCS, but the Cyclones should not have needed three overtimes to beat them, especially at home. Since this was the first game, and a weird rivalry game, we can probably discount it, particularly when we see how well they played against great FBS teams, even in losing.
The Cyclones lost to #16 Iowa by a single point; to #7 Baylor by 2 points; to #25 Oklahoma State by a touchown; and to #4 Oklahoma by 1 point. So any notion that the Irish will wipe them out should be taken with a grain of salt. The 'Clones didn't really prove they can beat a top 25 team, but get close enough times and it will eventually happen.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Notre Dame's season: -2 wins; Iowa State's season: -1 win
- Notre Dame's momentum: +0 wins; Iowa State's momentum: -1 win
- Notre Dame glad to be here? NO; Iowa State glad to be here: YES
- Notre Dame time zones from home: 0; Iowa State time zones from home: 1
- Notre Dame coaching situation: OC fired; Iowa State coaching situation: unchanged
There's no doubt that Notre Dame and its fans are peeved at this bowl selection. The team is 10-2 and ranked. In the (very biased) years before the selection committee, the Irish would be playing on New Year's Day if not for the national title! And to play a team with no real football history, a 7-5 team, in a no-name bowl (really, it has no name other than its sponsor). The indignity!
Iowa State gets to play Notre Dame, however, for the first time in school history. That's a good result for a 7-5 season. The Cyclones will by hyped for this contest, while Notre Dame will just be pissed. Update: To add awkwardness to insult, Brian Kelly fired offensive coordinator Chip Long during bowl preparation for undisclosed reasons.
Final analysis
This is a great matchup, whichever team has the ball. Both offenses and both defenses are in the top 25. When Iowa State's QB ges back to pass, it's a top ten passing offense vs. a top ten pass defense. It's also a great dual between two star quarterbacks. You'd hardly believe you were watching the "Camping World" Bowl right?
Clearly Iowa State is more pleased with being selected for this bowl game. That points to an Iowa State win. But there's still a chance that Notre Dame will be so pissed off that they will take out their frustrations on Iowa State and blow out the Cyclones.
That would be a strong possibility if they were actually superior to the 'Clones. But the teams are pretty even, so it's not a matter of the Irish overcoming their misgivings and playing to their ability. No, this is actually a fair matchup of two quality teams. So for Notre Dame to win, they're going to have to play their best, not just show up angry and prove they deserved better.
The Irish played well until the Michigan game; that loss carried over to their next game, a 1-point win over Virginia Tech. After that they played four great games to end the season. Does this bowl "snub" interrupt their great play, or will they pick up where they left off? If the latter is the case, those 4 game performances were 11 points better than their full-season average.
So if the team can overcome its disappointment at going to the worst-named bowl game and playing against a 7-5 team, instead of going to the Orange Bowl which they should have, then the Irish can win by double digits. I think they can overcome on of the two; if they'd had Oklahoma State (9-3) instead, it wouldn't be as bad. But this is a double slap in the face. The worst thing is Iowa State really is the equal of the Irish this year, so Notre Dame will have to dig in to earn a win. Kudos to them if they do, but I can't see them being fired up to do so. Meanwhile Iowa State is selling out its ticket allotment, something that never happens. OC Chip Long's departure from Notre Dame just reinforces our opinion, and we leave our predicted score the same.
Prediction: Iowa State 26, Notre Dame 25
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