View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
Time: Friday, December 20 at 2:00pm ET
TV: ESPN
Buffalo Bulls (7-5) vs. Charlotte 49ers (7-5)
The 2019 bowl season kicks off in another country.
Vegas line/spread: Buffalo by 7 (over/under 51.5)
Moves: The spread moved just a bit, up a half point, while the over/under sank from 57.5 to settle at 51.5.
Strength power rating: #73 Buffalo 35, #108 Charlotte 26
Adjusted for turnovers: Buffalo 33-27
Median game rating: Buffalo 33-25
Neither of these teams is the greatest, but it's the first bowl game so it's hard to complain when they both have winning records. Our Strength power rating estimate shows Buffalo winning, but removing turnover "luck" puts the game close to the spread.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -6.5 Spread |
| Buffalo | 67% | 55% |
| Charlotte | 33% | 45% |
Buffalo wins 2/3 of the time and covers the majority of trials against the original 6 1/2 point spread.
When Buffalo has the ball
| Buffalo scoring offense: #77 |
Charlotte scoring defense: #117 |
| Buffalo total offense: #99 |
Charlotte total defense: #94 |
| Buffalo rushing offense: #21 |
Charlotte rushing defense: #125 |
| Buffalo passing offense: #121 |
Charlotte passing defense: #110 |
The Bulls aren't an offensive powerhouse but Charlotte's defense is pretty suspect. Comparing adjusted total yardages this looks like a good matchup, but get into the specifics and Buffalo might run all over the 49ers with Jaret Marks (1,626 yards) and Kevin Marks (1,008). They don't offer much in the passing game but Charlotte's D isn't great there either on a per-play basis.
When Charlotte has the ball
| Charlotte scoring offense: #81 |
Buffalo scoring defense: #69 |
| Charlotte total offense: #69 |
Buffalo total defense: #33 |
| Charlotte rushing offense: #50 |
Buffalo rushing defense: #25 |
| Charlotte passing offense: #70 |
Buffalo passing defense: #64 |
Charlotte's offense isn't terrible, and they have a reasonably balanced run-pass attack. Buffalo is probably up to the challenge on D, though, outranking the 49ers in every category, with an top 25-level rushing defense. Charlotte may wind up having to pass the ball a lot; WR Victor Tucker has 848 receiving yards on the year.
Buffalo's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- Robert Morris PA 38-10
- @#10 Penn State 13-45
- @Liberty 17-35
- Temple 38-22
- @Miami OH 20-34
- Ohio U. 20-21 OT
- @Akron 21- 0
- Central Michigan 43-20
- @Eastern Michigan 43-14
- @Kent St 27-30
- Toledo 49-30
- Bowling Green 49- 7
Buffalo started the season very poorly, going 2-4, but a decent win over Temple showed potential. They won 5 of their last 6 and were clearly better in the 2nd half of the season, with strong performances against Central and Eastern Michigan. The Bulls topped 40 points in 4 of their last 5 games.
Charlotte's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- Gardner-Webb 49-28
- @#20 Appalachian St 41-56
- Massachusetts 52-17
- @#3 Clemson 10-52
- Florida Atlantic 27-45
- @Florida Int'l 23-48
- @Western Kentucky 14-30
- North Texas 39-38
- Middle Tennessee St 34-20
- @UTEP 28-21
- Marshall 24-13
- @Old Dominion 38-22
Charlotte also didn't start the season well but finished strong. In their 2-5 start the 49ers beat FCS Gardner-Webb and 1-11 UMass while losing to 5 bowl teams including #20 Appalachian State and #3 Clemson. The scheduled eased up a lot and Charlotte finished with 5 wins, including a great home win vs. 8-4 Marshall. They also got two more wins against 1-11 teams, but hey, you take what your schedule gives you right?
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Buffalo's season: -3 wins; Charlotte's season: +2 wins
- Buffalo's momentum: +3 wins; Charlotte's momentum: +3 wins
- Buffalo glad to be here? YES; Charlotte glad to be here: YES
- Buffalo time zones from home: 0; Charlotte time zones from home: 0;
- Buffalo coaching situation: unchanged; Charlotte coaching situation: unchanged
Both teams' seasons had a similar trajectory: a lousy start, and a strong finish. In that way both teams should be glad to make a bowl game at all considering they were both 2-4 at one point. Buffalo didn't match last year's 10 wins, and Charlotte is going to their very first bowl game, so that could give the 49ers some edge. Nothing else really gives a "tell". Neither team ought to be over- or under-confident as their records match.
Final analysis
In minor, early bowl games, motivation is often the key. The trick is to decide who is the motivated team. In this case it's probably both teams, given their early-season woes. Charlotte's first-bowl-game status could cut both ways—they might be hyped up and excel, or they could have big-game jitters and fall flat. We don't see a clear edge in motivation—if you do, then go with that, because it's likely the answer.
Without seeing a clear edge in motivation, we'll just look at the teams. Buffalo has a top-25 level rushing attack and top-25 level rush defense, and that looks pretty amazing for the first bowl game of the year. What catches our eye immediately is Buffalo's adjusted rushing rank of #21 vs. Charlotte's rush defense rank of #125. That could spell disaster for the 49ers.
Both teams improved in the 2nd half of the season, but Charlotte didn't really raise their game that much—they just went from playing bowl teams to playing losing teams for the most part. Buffalo played a lot better than they had early on.
Unless the 49ers ride high on the wave of their first bowl game appearance, this game comes down to the trenches and the ground game, and there, Buffalo rules. They've scored 40 or more a lot recently, so we pick them to do it again.
Prediction: Buffalo 42, Charlotte 26
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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