View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX
Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#11 Utah Utes (11-2) vs. Texas Longhorns (7-5)
A game that could very well come down to which team is more disappointed in their season's fate.
Vegas line/spread: Utah by 7 (over/under 55)
Movement: The line tightened by a half point early on, then remained at 7 by game day. The over/under rose a half point.
Strength power rating: #10 Utah 31, #20 Texas 24
Adjusted for turnovers: Utah 28-22
Median game rating: Utah 31-26
Road games rating: Utah 29-26
Vegas had Utah by 7 1/2 originally, we have Utah by about 6 1/2. That closes a bit more if we adjust for turnover "luck", or use the teams' median game ratings to cull outlier results. Finally, we look at the teams' road game performance. If teams play a lot worse on the road than normal, perhaps that translates to neutral location play? In this case, Utah plays about an extra point worse on the road than the standard HFA deduction, and we don't apply it to Texas as the Longhorns are playing close to home. In any case Utah still wins by about a field goal.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 1/2 Spread |
| Utah | 63% | 47% |
| Texas | 37% | 53% |
Using game ratings based on our Strength power rating, we cross-compare every game these teams have played; almost 2/3 of the time Utah is the winner. Offsetting the results by 7.5 points shows Texas covering just over half the time.
When Utah has the ball
| Utah scoring offense: #23 |
Texas scoring defense: #40 |
| Utah total offense: #42 |
Texas total defense: #65 |
| Utah rushing offense: #27 |
Texas rushing defense: #15 |
| Utah passing offense: #74 |
Texas passing defense: #66 |
Utah appears to have an edge here, with a top 25 scoring defense to Texas' #40 ranking. Both teams are skewed in terms of yardage: Utah scores more than their total offense numbers would suggest, and Texas has a bend-but-don't-break profile on defense, giving up yardage but not points. In both cases turnovers are a factor: Texas gets a lot of them, and Utah doesn't commit many. So something has to give!
Broken down in to rushing and passing stats, Texas' D looks up to the task of slowing down the Utes, as they rank very well against Utah's strong ground game, and good enough against the pass. Utah's Zack Moss has 1,359 yards on the ground—best in the Pac-12—while QB Tyler Huntley has 2,966 yards and an 18:4 TD:int ratio. The pass ranking isn't very high but again, the lack of turnovers leads to more points.
When Texas has the ball
| Texas scoring offense: #12 |
Utah scoring defense: #6 |
| Texas total offense: #8 |
Utah total defense: #4 |
| Texas rushing offense: #30 |
Utah rushing defense: #7 |
| Texas passing offense: #16 |
Utah passing defense: #9 |
Despite their up and down season, Texas has been an offensive powerhouse, ranking borderline top ten in scoring and total offense. The ground game and passing game are both solid. Sam Elinger has thrown for 3,462 yards and 29 TDs with 9 interceptions, and top target Devin Duvernay has 103 receptions for 1,294 yards. Two Longhorns have 600+ rushing yards and Elinger adds 590. This all looks great until you view Utah's defense, one of the best and most well-rounded in the country. Scoring, yardage, rushing, and passing—they're top ten in everything. It will be a challenge for Texas' offense. The issue for Utah is whether they'll have their full defense on the field for the bowl game; already DE Jaylon Johnson said he will skip the game to prep for the NFL, though DE Bradlee Anae, who has 12.5 sacks, has decided to play. Meanwhile starting safety Julian Blackmon is out with injury.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Utah #89 Texas #80
This might be the one area where both teams are below average. Hopefully it doesn't come down to special teams play!
Utah's season (11-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- @Brigham Young 30-12
- Northern Illinois 35-17
- Idaho St 31-0
- @#22 Southern Cal 23-30
- Washington St 38-13
- @Oregon St 52-7
- Arizona St 21-3
- California 35-0
- @Washington 33-28
- UCLA 49-3
- @Arizona 35-7
- Colorado 45-15
- =#6 Oregon 15-37
Utah might not have started off thinking Playoff, but at some point it became a realistic goal. Nothing in Utah's first four games suggested they were really that good; they beat BYU on the road, sure, but two more tepid wins and a loss to USC suggested they would be relegated to a mid-level bowl lik, say, the Alamo Bowl. But then they started winning big, looking good, passing the "eye test." Never mind that they hadn't beaten a top 25 team—neither had Clemson!—the stretch of performances they put on for 8 games was as good as almost any team. They just had to beat Oregon and hope the Committee chose them. Instead, they were devastated by the Ducks, 37-15, and to add insult to injury, ended up in the Alamo Bowl anyway.
Texas's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- Louisiana Tech 45-14
- #1 LSU 38-45
- @Rice 48-13
- #25 Oklahoma St 36-30
- @West Virginia 42-31
- =#4 Oklahoma 27-34
- Kansas 50-48
- @TCU 27-37
- Kansas St 27-24
- @Iowa St 21-23
- @#7 Baylor 10-24
- Texas Tech 49-24
Texas, in retrospect, played great for half the season. They crushed a 9-3 Louisiana Tech team, 45-14, in the opener, and played #1 LSU to within a touchdown. Three solid wins later they faced Oklahoma and played the #4 Sooners to within a touchdown. Great performances, but still two losses, and two losses means no Playoff for you.
Their disappointment was clear as the Longhorns were MIA on defense against Kansas and almost got upset, and they did get upset by TCU the next week. They edged Kansas State but fell to Iowa State and Baylor, before rebounding with a big win over Texas Tech, possibly their best game. Does the fact that they finished strong mean they've gotten over much of the disappointment?
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Utah's season: +2 wins; Texas's season: -2 wins
- Utah's momentum: +0 wins; Texas's momentum: -1 win
- Utah glad to be here? NO; Texas glad to be here: no
- Utah time zones from home: 1; Texas time zones from home: 0
- Utah coaching situation: unchanged; Texas coaching situation: fired OC
Texas was expecting great things from the start, given last year's 10-3 finish. Utah might not have, but they soon raised their expectations to the level at which they were playing. Both teams ended up in the Alamo Bowl, which is not where either of them wanted to be. Utah improved over last year by 2 games which Texas declined by 2 wins, but Texas played their best game at the end, and Utah possibly their worst. Utah's wound is still open, while Texas' might have healed somewhat.
Final analysis
Texas and Utah both had objectively successful seasons, but neither ended up being satisfactory. Texas was arguably the better team for the first third of the season, but then the Utes kicked into a higher gear and Texas stumbled after the Oklahoma loss soured their hope for a superb year. Utah's disappointment came late, but it was harsher, as they had realistic hopes of getting to the Playoff, and certainly deserved a bigger bowl than this one.
Both teams have very good turnover margins, but that can't work for both teams in the same game. Whoever wins the turnover game probably wins the game. This looks particularly important when Utah is on offense; they can't afford any drive-killing turnovers, while Texas's D gives up a lot of yardage relatively and is somewhat dependent on turnovers to prevent scoring.
Utah has a number of players that might miss the game to prepare for the NFL. Currently, Zack Moss and most of the seniors have decided to play, but Jaylon Johnson has decided not to, and Bradlee Anae is still deciding, but the fact that so many key players are making this decision says two things: 1) Utah has a lot of great players, and 2) Utah is not very excited about this bowl game. If it were a bigger bowl that meant something, or against a team with a better record, there wouldn't be much question in most players' mind. But again, this underscores how they feel having just missed out on the Playoff.
Texas probably doesn't feel as bad about this bowl as Utah. The Longhorns knew for a while they weren't getting anything better. And they're playing close to home. To their view, they're facing a very worthy opponent; #11 Utah might not think the same, which hurts motivation and/or could lead to overconfidence. And even if both teams were equally unmotivated, Texas will probably field nearly its entire team, while key Utah players are injured, skipping out, or still deciding. (Texas does have several players questionable for the game).
Last year Texas took advantage of playing a very down Georgia team and pulled off a big upset. They were a much bigger underdog then—about 12 points—and weren't any better last year, ranking #26 in Strength before that bowl. The difference is that last year's team was on an upswing. Can the Longhorns do it again? I hate to not give Texas credit, but it depends more on Utah. The Utes are probably feeling roughly as low as Georgia was, and the Bulldogs were playing in the Sugar Bowl, which is at least some consolation. That bowl had a 19 point swing from spread to result; if half of that was Georgia and half credit to Texas, then Utah could play 9 1/2 points worse than the spread expectation. Texas isn't going to see the upside this year from their play, I wager, but they still get a 2 point upset win. They say lightning doesn't strike twice but that's completely false—it strikes again and again, under the same conditions.
Prediction: Texas 30, Utah 28
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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