View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA
Time: Wednesday, January 1 at 8:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#5 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) vs. #7 Baylor Bears (11-2)
It might be a very defensive battle when the Bulldogs face the Bears.
Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 4 1/2 (over/under 41.5)
Movement: The line opened near 7, and has since dropped to 4 1/2 due to mounting injuries and absences on the Georgia side. The o/u has remained stable.
Strength power rating: #12 Georgia 21, #14 Baylor 17
Adjusted for turnovers: Georgia 22-13
Median game rating: Georgia 24-18
Road play rating: Georgia 21-17
Georgia was initially favored by a touchdown, a lot less than they were against Texas last year when they were upset. The Strength power rating calls for a closer game, around 4 1/2 points (which the Vegas line now matches). Baylor is more heavily dependent on turnovers, so extracting their effect shows a bigger win for Georgia (unless Baylor does get its turnovers, of course).
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| Georgia | 59% | 47% |
| Baylor | 41% | 53% |
Georgia wins 3 of 5 game comparisons, but Baylor covers the majority against a 7-point spread.
When Georgia has the ball
| Georgia scoring offense: #30 |
Baylor scoring defense: #11 |
| Georgia total offense: #33 |
Baylor total defense: #23 |
| Georgia rushing offense: #45 |
Baylor rushing defense: #6 |
| Georgia passing offense: #51 |
Baylor passing defense: #4 |
Georgia has a solid offense with above-average run and pass options, but Baylor's defense is stingy with points and ranks in the top ten in stopping teams on the ground and through the air. The Bears give up quite a bit of raw yardage, but against teams with powerful offenses; they hold those team to far below their average, hence their top ten ranking. Georgia QB Jake Fromm's 2019 looks a lot like his first two seasons, a productive year without too much flashiness. He's thrown for 2,610 yards, with 22 TDs and just 5 interceptions. The Bulldogs have a proud history of 1,000 yard rushers and the latest is D'Andre Swift (1,216) but he may miss the game with injury. In any case Bulldogs will have to work hard to move the ball against the Bears, and it will be even more difficult without the offensive line: All-American tackle Andrew Thomas and starter Isaiah Wilson are prepping for the pros, and starter Ben Cleveland is out due to academics. When the O-line was intact they gave Fromm lots of time, and he was sacked just 12 times. Baylor's D has 42 sacks on the year, making three lost starters a big concern. The Bulldogs are also missing their #2 and #4 receivers.
When Baylor has the ball
| Baylor scoring offense: #28 |
Georgia scoring defense: #4 |
| Baylor total offense: #28 |
Georgia total defense: #3 |
| Baylor rushing offense: #42 |
Georgia rushing defense: #1 |
| Baylor passing offense: #43 |
Georgia passing defense: #6 |
Baylor's Briles-era all-offense, no-defense look has been replaced by a much more balanced philosophy, but the Bears can still put up the points, ranking near the top 25 in both scoring and yardage. Like Georgia, their offense is balanced, too, with solid passing and running attacks. QB Charlie Brewer has 2,950 passing yards and a 20:6 TD:int ratio. Georgia's defense is every bit as strong as Baylor's and then some. They rank #1 against the run, top 5 in yardage and scoring, and #6 in per-attempt passing yards. It will be even harder for Baylor to score on Georgia than vice versa.
We'll include the sacks comparison here too just for completeness: Brewer has been sacked 29 times, and Georgia has 28 sacks on the year, which makes the pass pressure situation roughly equal between Baylor and Georgia's offenses.
Georgia will be missing starting DB JR Reed and defensive line starter Tyler Clark.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Georgia #48 Baylor #100
With two decent offenses against two great defenses, the game might come down to special teams. The Bulldogs have the edge, but both teams have good kickers; Baylor's John Mayers has made 16 of 19 while Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship is 25 of 31, including 5 of 8 at 40-49 and 3 of 5 at 50+.
Georgia's season (11-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (2) to losing teams (1)
- @Vanderbilt 30-6
- Murray St 63-17
- Arkansas St 55-0
- #15 Notre Dame 23-17
- @Tennessee 43-14
- South Carolina 17-20 2OT
- Kentucky 21-0
- =#9 Florida 24-17
- Missouri 27-0
- @#12 Auburn 21-14
- Texas A&M 19-13
- @Georgia Tech 52-7
- #1 LSU 10-37
Georgia played great football almost every time out. But they hit two duds—an overtime loss to 4-8 South Carolina, and a thrashing by 13-0 LSU. Before those games and in-between them they could do no wrong, beating six bowl teams and three that finished in the top 15. A defense-based team, the Bulldogs rarely post a lot of points; they beat #15 Notre Dame by 6, #9 Florida by 7, and #12 Auburn by 7, scoring just enough to get the job done. Same with wins over Kentucky (27 points), Missouri (27), and Texas A&M (19). But 17 in regulation against South Carolina wasn't enough, nor was 10 even close against LSU.
The defense always did its job, holding almost every team below its average (even LSU). The Bulldog D only had one bad game—Murray State, and they clearly didn't need a shutout there and the scrubs were put in early. So don't look for a letdown on defense from Georgia, because they haven't had one yet.
Baylor's season (11-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- S.F. Austin 56-17
- UTSA 63-14
- @Rice 21-13
- Iowa St 23-21
- @Kansas St 31-12
- Texas Tech 33-30 2OT
- @#25 Oklahoma St 45-27
- West Virginia 17-14
- @TCU 29-23 3OT
- #4 Oklahoma 31-34
- Texas 24-10
- @Kansas 61-6
- #4 Oklahoma 23-30 OT
Baylor looked like the Bears of old in their first two blowout wins—all offense and marginal defense. The offense seemed to falter against Rice, but then a funny thing happened: the defense started winning games for them. The 23-21 Iowa State win, certainly, and holding Kansas State to 12 didn't hurt. Through four more wins the defense held firm, if not for overtime points in 5 overtime periods. Even the first Oklahoma game showed their defense in a good light—for the first half. The last three games were defensive clinics, holding Texas to 10, Kansas to 6, and Oklahoma to 20 in regulation. The offense showed up from game to game but the defense just kept getting better.
In the end Baylor was a few field goals away from being 13-0...and a few away from having 2 more losses, given the close, close calls vs. Texas Tech and TCU.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Georgia's season: +0 wins; Baylor's season: +6 wins
- Georgia's momentum: +0 wins; Baylor's momentum: -2 wins
- Georgia glad to be here? yes; Baylor glad to be here: YES
- Georgia time zones from home: 1; Baylor time zones from home: 0;
- Georgia coaching situation: unchanged; Baylor coaching situation: unchanged
Baylor gets a big YES to the question, is the team glad to be here? After a 6-6 regular 2018 season they went 11-2. Georgia gets a small 'yes' because they had the same result as last year, where they advanced to the SEC title game and lost, and got sent to the Sugar Bowl.
Final analysis
It's true these teams have great defenses, but it's not just the quality but the consistency of both defenses that's amazing. Georgia's D never had a bad game—holding LSU to 37 is about 10 points better than average. And Baylor's defense got better every game, peaking in their last three contests. The teams' offenses are probably in for a long, tough day. Even Georgia's red zone defense is great, while Baylor's is above-average.
Last year Georgia lost in the SEC title game to Alabama 35-28 after leading in the 4th quarter; this time they lost big to LSU from the start, which is either a lot worse or a bit better, depending on how you look at it. Still, we have to note their performance last year in the Sugar Bowl, losing to Texas 28-21 as a 12 point favorite. And Baylor may be as hyped about their turnaround season as Texas was last year. Will we see another 19-point swing around the Vegas spread?
If it hadn't happened last year, it might happen this year. But the Bulldogs have vivid memories of their big upset loss to Texas. They aren't favored by nearly as much this time around, and their opponent has a better record and higher ranking than Texas did last year. They won't underestimate Baylor, and know firsthand what can happen if they don't stay focused.
Baylor went from 1-11 to 6-6 to 11-1 in regular season games, and now they're on the big stage. Getting to a big-time New Year's Day bowl is a huge accomplishment for a team that was almost winless two seasons ago. Almost enough for them to be a little satisfied already, without needing a win to be proud of themselves...
In any case, if there's a game to pick to be low-scoring, this is it. Both defenses will rise to the occasion, and we don't know if the offenses for either team will show up or not—they're both very erratic and unreliable on offense, and in Georgia's case the offensive line literally won't show up with 3 starters out. But both teams have very good placekickers, so we're calling for field goals. Lots of field goals, and nothing more.
Prediction: Georgia 12, Baylor 9
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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