View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Lending Tree Bowl in Mobile, AL
Time: Saturday, January 6 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-3) vs. Miami Ohio Redhawks (8-5)
The MAC champion takes on the Sun Belt runner-up.
Vegas line/spread: ULL by 14 (over/under 54.5)
The line has basically remained steady by game day, with the over/under down a few points from 56.5.
Strength power rating: #33 UL-Lafayette 36, #94 Miami OH 17
Adjusted for turnovers: UL-Lafayette 35-16
Median game rating: UL-Lafayette 34-19
Road play rating: UL-Lafayette 35-17
Louisiana-Lafayette's 10-3 record isn't a fluke or just the product of an easy schedule, they're really good, and rank almost in the top 25 in Strength. That wayyy outclasses Miami of Ohio, who is just inside the top 100. Hence our power rating favors the Cajuns by 19 points, the biggest margin of the bowl season. The median is closest to the 14-point Vegas spread, as it culls out some of Miami's terrible games.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -14 Spread |
| UL-Lafayette | 83% | 56% |
| Miami OH | 17% | 44% |
Unsurprisingly, 5 out of 6 of the game comparisons tilt toward the Cajuns. The Cajuns also cover in the majority of trials against a 2-touchdown spread.
When ULL has the ball
| ULL scoring offense: #40 |
Miami OH scoring defense: #80 |
| ULL total offense: #27 |
Miami OH total defense: #70 |
| ULL rushing offense: #12 |
Miami OH rushing defense: #77 |
| ULL passing offense: #73 |
Miami OH passing defense: #44 |
Louisiana is 11th in the nation in average points scored. Their admittedly easy schedule pulls that down to a still-respectable #40. The impressive part of their offense is clearly the running game, which ranks almost in the top ten in adjusted yardage per game. The Cajuns have three backs with over 750 yards, led by Elijah Mitchell with 1,092. Miami has a pretty good pass defense, but ULL runs twice as often as they pass and they have a big advantage here.
When Miami OH has the ball
| Miami OH scoring offense: #97 |
ULL scoring defense: #37 |
| Miami OH total offense: #120 |
ULL total defense: #68 |
| Miami OH rushing offense: #111 |
ULL rushing defense: #100 |
| Miami OH passing offense: #109 |
ULL passing defense: #54 |
Miami needs some help on offense, ranking in triple digits in all the yardage categories. Given UL-Lafayette's defense, they will probably have more luck running the ball. ULL's defense is somewhat lenient in giving up yardage but clamps down on the points, boasting the #10 red zone defense.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): UL-Lafayette #28 Miami OH #3
Here's where we have a marquee matchup—on special teams! ULL is respectable in this category but the Redhawks are superstars of special teams. Kicker Sam Sloman has made 25 of 29 attempts, including 4 of 5 from 50+.
ULL's season (10-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- =Mississippi St 28-38
- Liberty 35-14
- Texas Southern 77-6
- @Ohio U. 45-25
- @Georgia Southern 37-24
- #20 Appalachian St 7-17
- @Arkansas St 37-20
- Texas St 31-3
- @Coastal Carolina 48-7
- @South Alabama 37-27
- Troy 53-3
- Louisiana-Monroe 31-30
- @#20 Appalachian St 38-45
Louisiana-Lafayette opened with a narrow loss on a neutral field to an SEC team, then won four straight. Note that the 77-6 blowout of Texas Southern rates only slightly better than a 21 point win over Liberty, and not as impressive as beating bowl-bound Ohio on the road by 20. The Cajuns hosted Appalachian State and fell short, 17-7, but won six straight after that, looking better and better. They got two more blowout wins that really were impressive: beating Coastal Carolina 48-7, and especially, topping Troy 53-3. Could they beat the Mountaineers give a second try? This time they were on the road, and came close, but suffered defeat again, 45-38. At 10-3 with two losses to the same top 25 team, ULL is one of the country's overlooked gems.
Miami OH's season (8-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- @#16 Iowa 14-38
- Tennessee Tech 48-17
- @#21 Cincinnati 13-35
- @#2 Ohio State 5-76
- Buffalo 34-20
- @Western Michigan 16-38
- Northern Illinois 27-24
- @Kent St 23-16
- @Ohio U. 24-21
- Bowling Green 44-3
- Akron 20-17
- @Ball St 27-41
- @Central Michigan 26-21
Miami started the year 1-3, but you can't really blame them. Blame whoever scheduled this shit-show. Really, playing two (good) Big Ten teams and a top AAC team in the pre-conference season? Miami fared reasonably well at #16 Iowa and #21 Cincinnati but by the time #2 Ohio State rolled around it was a 76-5 mess. Getting a field goal and a safety and nothing else is almost worse than getting shut out, somehow. Back home, they amazingly rebounded with a huge win over Buffalo, before suffering another really bad defeat. Note: losing to Western Michigan 38-16 is roughly the equivalent of a 71 point loss to Ohio State in our power rating.
Then the winning started: five in a row, including two more bowl-bound teams, and ending with a 20-17 home win over Akron. Note: beating Akron 20-17 at home rates much LOWER than losing to Ohio State by 71. They unsurprisingly lost the next game to Ball State but then pulled out one more good showing at Central Michigan to win the MAC crown.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- ULL's season: +5 wins**; Miami OH's season: +3 wins**
- ULL's momentum: +0 wins; Miami OH's momentum: +3 wins
- ULL glad to be here? yes; Miami OH glad to be here: YES
- ULL time zones from home: 0; Miami OH time zones from home: 1;
- ULL coaching situation: unchanged; Miami OH coaching situation: unchanged
Neither team went bowling last year; Louisiana was 5-7, Miami 6-6 and not chosen. Both teams added a slew of wins to their record, so both should be happy about going bowling, period. Miami a bit more, maybe, since they needed a win streak to make it, and Louisiana-Lafayette might think their 10-win season deserved better (I think so!)
Final analysis
It's not often that overconfidence becomes a problem in a minor bowl game. Usually it's in a bigger bowl between two major conference teams, or in a mid-level bowl when a major conference team thinks it is slumming it just to show up. But here we wonder if Louisiana Lafayette might be a little overconfident. They were 10-3 with 2 losses to a top 25 team and an SEC team. Meanwhile they are playing a Miami team that got beat 76-5, when ULL beat another team 77-6! Sure, the teams involved were Ohio State and Texas Southern, but you get the point!
We should look at how the teams do when they have some motivation, and a few games at the end of the season are telling. UL-Lafayette rolled through the 2nd half of its schedule, recovering nicely from the App State loss. But they picked their spots to shine: for example, they beat traditional Sun Belt power Troy 53-3, as if they were making a big statement in front of the home crowd. They were able to be "up" for that game, but against rival ULM they were flat. Why? It might have been overconfidence. The Warhawks were just 5-6 going in, and the Cajuns were 9-2. They won just 31-30. Sure, rivalry games are unpredictable but there should be your utmost motivation. Instead it was probably their worst outing of the year.
Miami of Ohio, meanwhile, had to travel to Central Michigan to play for the MAC title. Two games earlier they escaped vs. Akron 20-17 and lost to Ball State. But suddenly, with something to play for they upset the Chippewas 26-21 and became MAC champs.
If either team is going to be overconfident it's the Cajuns, who are about the biggest favorite by the spread of any team in the bowl season. The Redhawks are again the underdog and will take the game seriously. I don't blame the Cajuns for thinking this game will be a walk in the park; if you look at the stats, it should be. Many a team has been a 14-17 point favorite and, disappointed at their bowl placement, lost outright. Normally that's a major conference team missing out on say, the Rose Bowl, not a Sun Belt team wishing it played in December rather than January 6th, but still, the sentiment remains. If they come out flat for whatever reason and Miami plays like they did vs. Central Michigan, we could see an upset. If I were reviewing a team that just missed out on the Rose Bowl with this same situation I'd call for a 10-point win by the Redhawks.
But by losing to App State ULL only missed out on the New Orleans Bowl, the one they go to almost every year. And I don't have the heart to pick against the Cajuns, who have been one of my favorite teams this year and deserve more top 25 votes. The way they played down the stretch, it's more a matter of feast or famine. Either the Cajuns blow out the Redhawks like they did Coastal Carolina and Troy, or they squeeze past them like they did South Alabama and ULM. Meaning they win by more than 6 touchdowns or by about 6 points. Since we expect another strong effort (and some long field goals) from Miami and some overconfidence from ULL, we opt for the latter. But ULL still wins; they do have some pride in having rebounded so strong from last year's 5-7 showing.
Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 30, Miami OH 24
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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