View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL
Time: Thursday, January 2 at 7:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Indiana Hoosiers (8-4) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5)
It's been a few years since either of these teams has been bowling, so they should both be ready to go.
Vegas line/spread: Tennessee by 2 1/2 (over/under 55)
The spread hasn't changed much by game day (up 1/2 point) but the over/under is up by 4 points from 51 to 55.
Strength power rating: #35 Indiana 25, #52 Tennessee 22
Adjusted for turnovers: Indiana 25-22
Median game rating: Tennessee 25-22
Road play rating: Indiana 25-23
What's interesting here is the Median game rating score estimate. Indiana is about a 3-point favorite by our Strength power rating, but the Median rating flips the script. Indiana has 4 or so outlier games that the median culls out, while Tennessee has 4 early low-rated games that get removed. Is the median relevant in this case? Let's find out.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -2 Spread |
| Indiana | 56% | 49% |
| Tennessee | 44% | 51% |
Our Strength power rating is right on the cusp of a 2 point spread. Even though the average margin is about 3.5 points, the performance distribution (described above when discussing the median) puts a lot of these cross-comparisons close, and Tennessee wins a tiny majority when spotted 2 points.
When Indiana has the ball
| Indiana scoring offense: #32 |
Tennessee scoring defense: #26 |
| Indiana total offense: #23 |
Tennessee total defense: #25 |
| Indiana rushing offense: #74 |
Tennessee rushing defense: #21 |
| Indiana passing offense: #15 |
Tennessee passing defense: #29 |
A good matchup in terms of scoring and yardage, Indiana has an edge when throwing the ball but as usual won't be running as much. Indiana used two quarterbacks, both of whom can run, until Michael Penix Jr (1,394 yards, 10 TD, 4 int) was lost for the season in early November. Peyton Ramsey (2,227 yards, 13:4) took over full time. The Hoosiers still have 4 receivers over 500 yards, so there has been continuity even if the offense is more predictable now, making Tennessee's job a little easier on defense.
When Tennessee has the ball
| Tennessee scoring offense: #89 |
Indiana scoring defense: #42 |
| Tennessee total offense: #57 |
Indiana total defense: #46 |
| Tennessee rushing offense: #77 |
Indiana rushing defense: #52 |
| Tennessee passing offense: #50 |
Indiana passing defense: #63 |
QB Jarrett Guarantaro's breakthrough never really happened; he has just 1,937 yards, 16 TDs, and 6 interceptions, the same work-in-progress numbers he's had his whole career at Tennessee. Benched occasionally for freshman Brian Maurer who completed less than 50% with a 2:5 ratio, he remains the Vols only option. The receiver corps, like at Indiana, is solid enough to make the passing game respectable, and it may be the better option against Indiana's defense.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Indiana #63 Tennessee #50
Indiana's season (8-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (0)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)
- =Ball St 34-24
- Eastern Illinois 52-0
- #2 Ohio State 10-51
- Connecticut 38-3
- @Michigan St 31-40
- Rutgers 35-0
- @Maryland 34-28
- @Nebraska 38-31
- Northwestern 34-3
- @#10 Penn State 27-34
- #15 Michigan 14-39
- @Purdue 44-41 2OT
Indiana has a peculiar season. They didn't beat a single bowl-eligible team, but they lost almost exclusively to top 25 teams. They only played one bowl-bound team that didn't end up in the top 25—Michigan State—and the Spartans beat them, 40-31. They were pretty even-keel in terms of performance, raising it a bit for the Rutgers shutout, the win at Nebraska, and the 34-3 drubbing of Northwestern. The one-touchdown loss at Penn State was another high-water mark. They dipped a bit—for the first time—in losing to Michigan 39-14, but were back on their steady track for the overtime Purdue road win.
Tennessee's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- Georgia St 30-38
- Brigham Young 26-29 2OT
- Chattanooga 45-0
- @#9 Florida 3-34
- #5 Georgia 14-43
- Mississippi St 20-10
- @#13 Alabama 13-35
- South Carolina 41-21
- UAB 30-7
- @Kentucky 17-13
- @Missouri 24-20
- Vanderbilt 28-10
Tennessee began the season with high expectations to bounce back from their 5-7 campaign of last year. ESPN's FPI ranked them #15 in the pre-season! And if we still did pre-season rankings, I'm sure the Volunteers would have made a big jump. But some of that must have gone to their heads as they came out clearly overconfident against Georgia State and lost at home 38-30. The loss carried over to their 2nd home loss of the year, in overtime to BYU. They took out their frustrations on Chattanooga but then faced two top ten teams and played poorly each time. At 1-4, a bowl game looked unlikely, let alone a great turnaround season.
But the win over Mississippi State was a turning point. It wasn't much—a 20-10 win over a bowl-bound team—but the Volunteers played well from then on. Not great, but well. Alabama still beat them, but only 35-13. If fans didn't see any cause for hope yet they did after big wins over South Carolina and UAB, and tight wins over Kentucky and Missouri, both on the road. Now bowl-eligible, they beat Vandy for good measure. They might not have turned the program around, but at least they turned around the season.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Indiana's season: +3 wins; Tennessee's season: +2 wins
- Indiana's momentum: +0 wins; Tennessee's momentum: +3 wins
- Indiana glad to be here? YES; Tennessee glad to be here: yes
- Indiana time zones from home: 0; Tennessee time zones from home: 0;
- Indiana coaching situation: OC hired away; Tennessee coaching situation: unchanged
Tennessee is going bowling for the first time in 3 years, which is a monstrous gap for the program. Indiana's first trip in four years is about par for the course for Hoosier football. Both teams are coming off 5-7 seasons, and while Tennessee had much higher hopes in August, Indiana had the higher hopes at the mid-season point. Tennessee turned their season around and the Gator Bowl is a lot better than no bowl; it's not what Tennessee was hoping for pre-season, but they might have prayed for it when they were 1-4. And to be realistic about the state of the program, it's been 15 years since they've been to a bowl that was a lot better than the Gator Bowl.
Final analysis
The teams are pretty evenly matched, though from a full-season perspective Indiana has the edge. Their offense is clearly better and the defense is close to the Vols level. But two things have happened over the course of the season that might make those averages less reliable.
One, Indiana lost one of their quarterbacks. This is probably a pretty minor effect; it has made their offense more variable in performance, as seen in the Penn State game and the Michigan game that followed it.
Two, Tennessee's offense has slowly but surely improved, just a small amount each game, until it typical rated a lot better in late games than early games. It's not great; Guarantero can still go 6 of 17 against Vanderbilt, two games after going 6 of 7 with 2 TDs against Kentucky. But overall the offense is a lot better, and at the same time the defense became consistently decent in the 2nd half of the season. Taken together, Tennessee's last four wins are more representative of the team at this point.
Meanwhile Indiana is probably more erratic than they've been all season. Early on they played at a stable level, raised their game for a bit, but came back down to earth when Penix Jr was lost for the year. It's in cases like these that the Median game scores represent a team's state well—by culling out early performances that are outdated, or showing how a team plays typically. If Guarantaro has a bad game, or Indiana's offense sparks, it could go the other way easily. But most of the time, we see the team's current states being at about this level: Tennessee by 3 points. With the defenses still better than the offenses it shouldn't be a shootout, but a hard-fought defensive battle from two teams glad to be back at a bowl game.
Prediction: Tennessee 25, Indiana 22
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
Comments