View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Fmaous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID
Time: Wednesday, January 3 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) vs. Ohio Bobcats (6-6)
It's either the bowl with the best name ever, or the worst name ever, you decide.
Vegas line/spread: Ohio by 8 (over/under 59.5)
The line favoring Ohio moved from 7 1/2 to 8 by game day, with the over/under up by a point.
Strength power rating: #74 Ohio 36, #118 Nevada 24
Adjusted for turnovers: Ohio 38-26
Median game rating: Ohio 35-29
Road play rating: Ohio 37-24
It's rather surprising to see that 7-5 Nevada is only #118 out of 130 FBS teams in our Strength power rating, making it look like an easy game for 6-6 Ohio. The Wolf Pack get a big boost in the median ratings, so it's likely there are some downside outliers on their game chart. The spread is a lot tighter than our power rating, which often happens when one team's bad performances were early in the season. So just from this we can guess Nevada has some real blight on its record early on. We'll take a look.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7.5 Spread |
| Nevada | 33% | 47% |
| Ohio | 67% | 53% |
Normally a 12-point favorite would win about 80% of the game comparisons, so there is definitely an odd distribution of game scores going on, probably more with Nevada. The average spread we get is 12 points, but a 7.5 point spread almost tips 50/50. Nevada has a whale or two dragging it down; as bad as a game rating is, it only counts once here (really, it gets counted 12 times, once for each of the other team's games).
When Nevada has the ball
| Nevada scoring offense: #111 |
Ohio scoring defense: #92 |
| Nevada total offense: #116 |
Ohio total defense: #104 |
| Nevada rushing offense: #118 |
Ohio rushing defense: #104 |
| Nevada passing offense: #81 |
Ohio passing defense: #105 |
Nevada's offense is pretty dismal, but they can throw the ball a bit. Meanwhile Ohio's defense is...not quite Ohio State's defense, to say the least. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong threw for 1,933 yards and 10 TDs (7 int) despite missing most of October.
When Ohio has the ball
| Ohio scoring offense: #49 |
Nevada scoring defense: #113 |
| Ohio total offense: #52 |
Nevada total defense: #98 |
| Ohio rushing offense: #41 |
Nevada rushing defense: #90 |
| Ohio passing offense: #65 |
Nevada passing defense: #103 |
Ohio has middling offense, and in this game that might be all that's needed. QB Nathan Rourke has 2,676 passing yards and another 780 on the ground, making him the team's #2 rusher and part of a Bobcat ground game that ranks 25th in raw yardage. The biggest help to Ohio's offensive effort might have been the brawl that erupted after the Nevada-UNLV game. As a result, four Wolf Pack defensive starters are suspended. Gone are #4 tackler DB Austin Arnold, #6 tackler and interceptions leader DB Daniel Brown, and #11 tackler DT Hausia Sekona. #3 tackler LB Gabriel Sewell will miss the first half. Already weak against the pass, they will be even more so come bowl time.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Nevada #86 Ohio #56
Nevada's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- Purdue 34-31
- @#6 Oregon 6-77
- Weber St 19-13
- @UTEP 37-21
- Hawai`i 3-54
- San José St 41-38
- @Utah St 10-36
- @Wyoming 3-31
- New Mexico 21-10
- @San Diego St 17-13
- @Fresno St 35-28
- UNLV 30-33 OT
Nevada is a case study in mean vs. median, as they played two of the worst games in FBS football this year, and when the median filters those out, they look like a reasonable team. In fact, all 5 of their losses are pretty dismal; of their 12 efforts, their median games are two moderately weak wins.
Unbelievably, they kicked off the season with a huge win, beating Purdue 34-31. They then lost to Oregon 77-6, and that wasn't even their worst moment. At 3-1 they hosted Hawaii and got beat down 54-3. We've seen a lot of off-the-charts performances but this is the first one that is underwater. You can't even tell by the chart that it's a loss, but unless they were playing a high school team a win would have a blue bar there. It's a red bar, and it doesn't even show up. Perhaps the most amazing thing is that the game was a home game; Hawaii is supposed to have a big road disadvantage, and maybe do this kind of thing when hosting a lu'au-distracted opponent.
The Wolf Pack soldiered on, playing inexplicably well in their wins and terribly in their losses, even getting 3 in a row late in the year (and beating 9-3 SDSU!). Despite the magnitude of their most atrocious performances, they only lost to one losing team—UNLV. No wonder it started a brawl.
Ohio's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)
- Rhode Island 41-20
- @Pittsburgh 10-20
- @Marshall 31-33
- Louisiana-Lafayette 25-45
- @Buffalo 21-20 2OT
- Northern Illinois 36-39
- Kent St 45-38
- @Ball St 34-21
- Miami OH 21-24
- Western Michigan 34-37 OT
- @Bowling Green 66-24
- @Akron 52-3
Ohio started off 1-3, with road losses to two bowl teams and a home loss to 10-3 ULL. In their next three games they beat their only two bowl-bound opponents, Buffalo and Kent State, by a point in overtime and by a touchdown, and also had their only loss to a non-bowl opponent, NIU. The Ball State road win was a step up in performance, and after two steps back in narrow home losses—and needing two wins for bowl eligibility—the Bobcats finally hit their stride on the road, scoring 66 on Bowling Green and 52 on Akron. Not the greatest opponents, to be sure, but everything came together like it hadn't before.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Nevada's season: +0 wins; Ohio's season: -2 wins
- Nevada's momentum: -1 win; Ohio's momentum: +2 wins
- Nevada glad to be here? yes; Ohio glad to be here: yes
- Nevada time zones from home: 1; Ohio time zones from home: 2;
- Nevada coaching situation: unchanged; Ohio coaching situation: unchanged
Nevada finished the same 7-5 as last year, while Ohio was 8-4 in the regular season in 2018. Any disappointment in finishing worse is offset by winning their last two just to get here. And for Nevada, how they finished is important, too—the brawl at the end of the UNLV loss put a stain on the program. The real-world effects—in terms of the suspensions—are probably bigger than any psychological effects. Sometimes teams in this situation even play better after adopting a juvenile "the world is against us" attitude. Hey, whatever works. Ohio is probably glad to make a bowl after starting 2-4, while Nevada should be glad they're allowed to play at all. They could have taken Toledo instead and made two Ohio teams meet in Idaho, but no...
Final analysis
We should help Nevada out a little bit; their loss to Hawaii hurts their average so much that it probably doesn't represent the team's current state. They didn't play a game even close to that level for the rest of the season. It was also part of a 4-game stretch where their starting quarterback was out. So let's cut out those 4 games, which actually includes two decent wins, but whatever. Their rating jumps 5 points. Now what to do about the Oregon game. Another outlier, and Ohio is no Oregon. Ok, we'll remove the early games, too. That gets rid of the Purdue win as well, but, baby/bathwater whatever. Now they're a full 7 points better. Hey, why don't we just take their 2 best games, the ones right before the UNLV loss? Then Nevada is playing 21 points better than their average!
But don't expect the Wolf Pack to be nearly at their best after losing all those defensive starters. You know who might be at their best? Ohio. In their last two games the team put on an offensive show as everything clicked. Given Nevada's compromised situation, it's not unreasonable to think Ohio's offensive renaissance—which was already happening in front of our eyes—could continue. That would lead to a very solid Ohio win.
Prediction: Ohio 45, Nevada 24
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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