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Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL
Time: Thursday, January 2 at 3:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#21 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3) vs. Boston College Eagles (6-6)
Most teams want to be chosen for a bowl game, but that's not enough for Boston College. They actually want the game to played start to finish, too.
Vegas line/spread: Cincinnati by 7 1/2 (over/under 55)
Not much movement in the line by game day; the spread is up 1/2 point, the over steady.
Strength power rating: #31 Cincinnati 34, #71 Boston College 23
Adjusted for turnovers: Cincinnati 32-21
Median game rating: Cincinnati 34-25
Road play rating: Cincinnati 33-24
Cincinnati ranks #31 in Strength while Boston College is just #71, so our power rating favors the Bearcats by over 10 points, with a big of tightening depending on how you look at the teams. In any case it remains consistently above the Vegas spread of 7 points.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| Cincinnati | 76% | 57% |
| Boston College | 24% | 43% |
Cincy wins 3/4 of the time straight up, and a decent-sized majority of the time against the spread.
When Cincinnati has the ball
| Cincinnati scoring offense: #57 |
Boston College scoring defense: #95 |
| Cincinnati total offense: #79 |
Boston College total defense: #117 |
| Cincinnati rushing offense: #23 |
Boston College rushing defense: #80 |
| Cincinnati passing offense: #106 |
Boston College passing defense: #113 |
Cincinnati's offensive isn't quite explosive, but it won't have to be against Boston College, who gives up yards and points by the bunches. The Bearcats do have a strong ground attack, ranking in the top 25 even after adjustment for opposition. Michael Warren II has 1,160 rushing yards and 14 TDs, and QB Desmond Riddler is a better running than he is a passer, adding 545 net yards on the ground.
When Boston College has the ball
| Boston College scoring offense: #45 |
Cincinnati scoring defense: #21 |
| Boston College total offense: #26 |
Cincinnati total defense: #42 |
| Boston College rushing offense: #9 |
Cincinnati rushing defense: #23 |
| Boston College passing offense: #95 |
Cincinnati passing defense: #28 |
Boston College has a rushing offense that exceeds Cincinnati's which is good for making this game competitive because the Bearcats have a pretty solid defense. The Eagles have boasted a 1-2 RB combo of AJ Dillon (1,685 yards) and David Bailey (816), but Dillon won't be playing as he preparing for the NFL draft. Making matters worse the passing game was hurt when Anthony Brown was lost for the season in early October. Dennis Grosel's 9:3 TD:int ratio is pretty much the same as Brown's 9:2, but he completes fewer than 50% of his attempts. Cincinnati's defense can deal with either option, but they can probably focus on the run in Birmingham.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Cincinnati #16 Boston College #107
Cincinnati has the definite edge in special teams; their placekicking is particularly good while B.C.'s is not.
Cincinnati's season (10-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- UCLA 24-14
- @#2 Ohio State 0-42
- Miami OH 35-13
- @Marshall 52-14
- Central Florida 27-24
- @Houston 38-23
- Tulsa 24-13
- @East Carolina 46-43
- Connecticut 48- 3
- @South Florida 20-17
- Temple 15-13
- @#17 Memphis 24-34
- @#17 Memphis 24-29
Cincinnati opened at home with a win over UCLA, 24-14. Their next outing, a 42-0 loss at Ohio State, rates as roughly the same level of performance. The Bearcats improved from there with wins over bowl teams' Miami Ohio, Marshall, and even UCF, then slumped a bit against the lesser foes in the 2nd half of the season; they beat East Carolina and USF by 3 points each, Temple by 2. Given two shots at Memphis on the road, once for the American Conference title, Cincy fell short both times in nearly identical games, though they led in the 4th quarter the second time around. Cincinnati's defensive performance chart looks like a straight line across the weeks at a pretty high level, except for a single drop to near zero on game 8 (East Carolina).
Boston College's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)
- Virginia Tech 35-28
- Richmond 45-13
- Kansas 24-48
- @Rutgers 30-16
- Wake Forest 24-27
- @Louisville 39-41
- North Carolina St 45-24
- @#3 Clemson 7-59
- @Syracuse 58-27
- Florida St 31-38
- @#16 Notre Dame 7-40
- @Pittsburgh 26-19
Boston College's season went whichever way their offense played, because the defense was reliably bad, time in and time out. A chart of the Eagles' offensive season looks almost identical to the chart above. They opened with a solid win over Virginia Tech and topped Richmond impressively, but the offense faltered (and defense hit rock bottom) in the home loss to Kansas. They "rebounded" with a lame win over 2-10 Rutgers, then played it close but lost to Wake Forest and Louisville. Losses to Clemson, FSU, and Notre Dame were all poor efforts, but the offense exploded against NC State and Syracuse. They did just enough to beat Pitt and reach bowl eligibility, but not quite enough to save head coach Steve Adazzio's job.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Cincinnati's season: +1 win; Boston College's season: -1 win
- Cincinnati's momentum: -1 win; Boston College's momentum: +0 wins
- Cincinnati glad to be here? maybe; Boston College glad to be here: maybe
- Cincinnati time zones from home: 1; Boston College time zones from home: 1;
- Cincinnati coaching situation: unchanged; Boston College coaching situation: coach fired
Both teams had a near-replica of last year; Cincy added a win, Boston College lost one, and both teams were chosen for a bowl game. Last year Cincinnati won the Military Bowl, while Boston College went to the First Responder Bowl against Boise State and played less than a quarter before the game was called for bad weather. Leading 7-0, the game was declared a No Contest, much like boxers who had an inadvertent clash of heads.
We're not sure what that situation does for Boston College's motivation in this bowl game, but it probably doesn't outweigh their coach being fired. That has to put a damper on getting a bowl bid. According to some former players, the current players might be pleased at the development, but it's a distraction.
Final analysis
As goes Boston College's offense, so goes Boston College. Their defense is reliably below average, and occasionally awful, so Cincinnati shouldn't worry about scoring points. The Bearcats need to get their defense going and they'll be fine. It helps that they can focus on stopping the run, as the BC passing game is meager these days. And with their star running back skipping the bowl game for NFL draft prep, the odds of BC's offense having a good game look pretty poor.
Cincinnati's defense was amazingly consistent, and at a pretty high level. There was almost no variation week to week in their defensive performance except for one huge failure against East Carolina. 12 solid performances and one flub. Avoid a reoccurrence of that and the Bearcats win this game.
In fact, the defenses are so stable we're going to pick the game based only on them. Cincy's defense is 13 or 14 points better than BC's, so that's our spread. If Cincy's defense plays like it did in the 46-43 East Carolina win, Boston College will score 50 points. If BC's defense plays like it did in the Kansas game, Cincy will score 50 points. It will be a close, 50+ point shootout if both happen, but that's a 1 in 156 chance as we see it.
Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Boston College 21
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