Here we go. The first College Football Playoff Committee top 25 is about to come out. Although they don't really mean much right now, if history is any guide, these rankings will cause a shakeup in the AP Top 25 in the week following, as the sportswriters tend to follow the committee's lead.
But what does the committee value? Résumé, or performance?
The answer is, both, of course. When Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0 in 2014, the Buckeyes might not have had the résumé of Baylor or TCU. But they beat Wisconsin 59-0. The committee might weigh résumé and performance on a case-by-case basic. Here are two cases where we will get a clue as to what they are thinking.
LSU vs. Ohio State
The #1 spot should come down to LSU vs. Ohio State.
This year's Ohio State team is beating teams to almost the magnitude of that 59-0 over Wisconsin. Almost. They beat Wisconsin 38-7, and Cincinnati 42-0. And don't forget Miami Ohio 76-5, Indiana 51-10 or Northwestern 52-3.
LSU can claim a better résumé: they beat AP #10 Florida and #12 Auburn; they also beat Texas who fell out of the poll this week. They also beat 5-3 Georgia Southern. LSU is #1 in our Success ratings, which measures a team's wins and losses without considering victory margin.
Ohio State's résumé is almost as good, with wins over #16 Wisconsin, #17 Cincinnati, and Indiana who is just behind Texas in the "others receiving votes" department. Other victims include 6-3 Florida Atlantic. Ohio State is #2 in Success.
When it comes to team strength, there's no comparison so far: Ohio State is #1 far and away, as seen in our Strength ratings. LSU is just #5.
That's not to say LSU hasn't had its moments. They beat Georgia Southern 55-3, Utah State 42-6, and Mississippi State 36-13.
The committee has a choice here. In general, victory margin shouldn't matter, and the team with the better résumé should be ranked first. But when two undefeated teams have fairly similar résumés, you can't ignore the eye test. Ohio State is blowing out everyone they face; whether or not they could beat Alabama or Clemson, we don't know, but up to this point they clearly look like the dominant team in college football.
Verdict: It's likely the committee puts Ohio State #1, and LSU #2. If they put LSU #1, then they are making a choice that résumé is strictly more important at this point in the season, and choosing not to look at gaudy blowout scores.
Penn State's résumé ought to put them at #3. Alabama and Clemson haven't beaten any current top 25 teams, so I would expect they will follow at #4 and #5.
Even if LSU has to settle for #2, if the Tigers beat Alabama next week, they might elevate to the top spot anyway, as that would make LSU's résumé far and away the best in the country.
Oklahoma vs. Memphis
This is a comparison that not many people are thinking about, but it gets to the nitty-gritty in a few areas. It's another résumé vs. performance comparison. It's also a Power conference vs. Group of Five comparison, and it will tell us something about the value of a name.
Oklahoma sits at #9 in the AP poll, with Memphis at #19.
Here's Oklahoma's current résumé:
Record: 7-1
Loss: at #20 Kansas State (6-2), 48-41
Wins over AP top 25: none
Wins vs. opp w/winning record: Texas (5-3)
Here's Memphis' current résumé:
Record: 8-1
Loss: at Temple (5-3) 30-28
Wins over AP top 25: #23 SMU, #25 Navy
Wins vs. opp w/winning record: SMU (8-1), Navy (7-1), Tulane (6-3)
So you can see, by résumé the Tigers are clearly the more deserving of a higher rank as a 1-loss team. Oklahoma's loss—to a top 25 team—is perhaps more forgivable, but Memphis' 2-point road loss to a winning team isn't that bad. And the Tigers clearly have better wins, being the only team to beat either SMU or Navy, both of whom are ranked. Tulane isn't bad either. Oklahoma counters with a close win over unranked Texas on a neutral field.
This is reflected in our Success ratings where Memphis is #7, and Oklahoma a dismal #21.
But once again, we have to ask, how will the committee use the "eye-test", or margin of victory?
Memphis has had some close calls against questionable opponents, like their 15-10 win over 3-6 Ole Miss, or their 42-41 escape vs. 2-7 Tulsa. Meanwhile Oklahoma has been blowing out all the cupcakes on their slate, beating 3-6 Houston 49-31, 4-5 UCLA 48-14, 3-5 Texas Tech 55-16, 3-6 Kansas 45-20, and 3-5 West Virginia 52-14. As a result, Oklahoma easily ranks ahead of Memphis in our Strength ratings, #8 to #27.
How the committee ranks these two teams will say a lot about what they are valuing right now. A good résumé? Memphis should clearly be in front. Dominant performances overall? Oklahoma, clearly. A mix of the two? Then it gets close.
I'm pretty sure most people are assuming Oklahoma will rank well ahead of Memphis, as they do in the AP poll. But the AP poll is riddled with bias from pre-season rankings (Oklahoma #4, Memphis unranked), how big-conferences are preferred over small-conferences, and program name (Oklahoma: 7 national titles, Memphis: none).
Do the committee members share these biases? I'm sure they do. Their job is to minimize these biases, but it's clear that some still do exist.
Verdict: If Memphis is ranked ahead of Oklahoma, then the committee has really looked at résumé, and decided that solid wins are more important than impressive wins over lesser competition.
If Oklahoma is ranked slightly ahead, then they've looked at résumé and performance and struck a balance.
If Oklahoma is ranked far ahead, like they are in the AP poll, then they are emphasizing performance over résumé, and probably falling victim to one of several biases that would lead people to assume that the Sooners should be way ahead of Memphis.
I think observers will be surprised at how high Memphis is ranked, and how low Oklahoma is ranked, in the first Playoff Committee rankings. I don't think Memphis will be ahead of Oklahoma, but it will be close.
Final note: another relative ranking to watch is Oklahoma vs. Baylor. The Bears are undefeated and beat Kansas State, the team Oklahoma lost to. That would logically put Baylor in front, though once again, Baylor hasn't always been impressive.
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