SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| West Virginia Mountaineers (Big Twelve #4) |
 #27 |
2014 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#28 Success:#42 Overall:#30 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Lost to Texas A&M 45-37 (Liberty) |
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| 2015 Outlook |
Picks: AP #42 | USA #45 | Lindy's #35 | Athlon #36 | Steele #29 | ESPN #28 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 95% Playoff odds: 2% | ||
A weaker offense plus a stronger defense makes for about the same level of play in 2015, but probably with better results.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2014 Scoring Offense: #34 (raw) #28 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #56 (adjusted) |
The loss of two stud receivers hobbles the pass game—or maybe not, since Dan Holgorsen's system seems to thwart the penalties of personnel losses sometimes.
| Passing Game |
2014 Passing Rank: #9 (raw) #8 (adjusted) | 2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #92 |
| 2015 Projected Passing Rank: #41 (adjusted) |
2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #91 |
Clint Trickett (3,285 yards, 18 TDs, 10 interceptions) is gone and Skyler Howard (829 yards, 8 TDs, 0 int) who started the last few games, is back. Though Trickett completed 67% to Howard's 51%, they had similar yards per attempt, and Howard of course threw no interceptions. The case for a big decline in yardage rests with the receiver corps where Kevin White (1,447 yards, 10 TDs) and Mario Alford (945 yards, 11 TDs) are both gone. Jordan Thompson (598 yards) is back along with two others who topped 300 yards. Our system usually shows a big drop when Holgorsen has to replace his stud receivers and he usually just finds more studs.
| Rushing | 2014 Rushing Rank: #45 (raw) #50 (adjusted) | 2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #57 (adj.) |
Rushel Shell (788 yards) and Wendell Smallwood (722 yards) are both back for the Mountaineers, though they lose the next two (combined 683). The offensive line looks just as good with three starters back, Marquis Lucas, Tyler Orlosky, and Adam Pankey. We actually show a slight increase in yardage despite the ranking drop, and Skylar Howard will be running the ball more assuming he starts.
| 2014 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #77 Pass Defense per-game: #9 Per-attempt: #9 | ||
| Defense 9 ret. starters |
'14 Scoring Defense: #75 (raw) #35 (adjusted) | '14 sacks: #102 | '14 picks: #71 |
| '15 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted) |
'15 sacks: #113 | '15 picks: #26 | |
West Virginia's 3-3-5 has two starters back on the D-Line, two at linebacker, and all five in the secondary. Unfortunately the few losses are two of their best players: Shaquille Riddick (7 sacks) up front and Wes Tonkery (8 tackles for loss) in the middle. The pass rush was weak last year and it probably gets weaker without Riddick, but at linebacker top tackler Nick Kwiatkoski (103 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) is back and 2013 starter Jared Barber also returns so things are pretty set there. The secondary was great last year and should be greater still in 2015 as the team returns almost every pass defense (breakups plus interceptions) from last year. Nine of last year's top ten tacklers are back and we rank the defense a top 25 unit.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Josh Lambert attempted an insane 39 field goals last year and made 30 of them. He's back along with punter Nick O'Toole (41.8 average).
- Return Game: Jordan Thompson averaged just 4.3 yards per punt return and he's back, while Mario Alford (28.6 on kickoffs with 2 touchdown returns) is not.
- Turnovers projection: The Mountaineers had insanely bad luck with fumbles last year, coughing it up 15 more times than their opponents and ending up with a ridiculous -17 margin. Let's look at that again: they fumbled 28 times and lost it 19 of those (68%) while their opponents fumbled 13 times and lost it just twice (15%). This is actually good news for West Virginia, assuming there's nothing systematic causing this (there rarely is, as fumbling is very random and recovering fumbles is almost 100% random). The problem should correct itself (most of it, anyway) and it boosts the team going forward, since last year's team was unfairly downgraded based on bad luck.
Coaching Hot Seat Ranking: #14 (HOT)
Following 4-8 with 7-6 probably took Dana Holgorsen off the hot seat but our formula still puts him there. Mostly because West Virginia expects nearly 8 wins per year so he's underperformed for three straight, and dropping 4 of 5 at the end of last year didn't help. He's not really there but another losing season would put him right back.
Recruiting 2015 Recruiting Rank: #43 2014 Recruiting Rank: #57
This year's class is a step up and actually ranks very well in the Big Twelve where only Texas and Oklahoma recruited well this year.
2014 Recap
West Virginia played well in the opener in which they gave Alabama a scare, losing 33-23. After that they beat Towson, struggled to beat Maryland, lost to Oklahoma, beat Kansas, and edged Texas Tech. The Mountaineers kicked off the 2nd half of the season with their three best performances: the major upset of Baylor (41-27), thrashing Oklahoma State 34-10, and nearly adding TCU to the upset list (30-31). Unfortunately they fell to Texas and Kansas State before recovering with a win at Iowa State. The loss to Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl was their 4th in 5 games to end the season 7-6.
Last year's prediction: West Virginia was down in 2013 and we thought they'd stay down in 2014, at least in terms of record. We improved their ranking from #68 in 2013 to a pre-season #57 last year but still projected a repeat at 4-8. We weren't alone as only Lindy's ranked them higher, surprisingly (Phil Steele usually predicts rebounds for teams that falter one year). On the game-by-game chart we only favored WVa in two games! (Towson and Kansas) Needless to say we missed the boat, giving the Mountaineers just a 19% chance to make a bowl game.
2015 Outlook
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West Virginia 2015 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Southern | 88% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Liberty | 98% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | Maryland | 85% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma | 20% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma State | 68% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *Baylor | 13% | L | |||
| 10/29 | Thu | @ | *TCU | 11% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Texas Tech | 70% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Texas | 69% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *Kansas | 98% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa State | 87% | W | |||
| 12/5 | Sat | @ | *Kansas State | 57% | W | |||
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Straight up: 9-3 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 95%
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The three opening games at home should be three easy wins for the Mountaineers before heading to Oklahoma where we don't foresee good results. Back at home they should beat Oklahoma State, before again going on the road against fearsome opposition—Baylor and TCU—probably putting their record at 4-3.
But that might be the end of the losses for the season. Texas and Texas Tech are home games, and with Kansas the venue shouldn't matter (nor for Iowa State, but that's at home anyway). The final game is Kansas State on the road, and that one probably determines whether the cumulative result of 8-4 or the game-by-game of 9-3 is matched.
The K-State is by far the "closest" game on the slate (7% deviation from 50%, the next being 18% with Oklahoma State at 68%), so based on our rankings the outcomes are pretty clear. This is reflected in the top chart which overwhelmingly forecasts either 8, 7, or 9 wins in that order of likelihood. Those three results encompass over 75% of the total probability.
So if we're right, look for a regular season that matches or exceed's last year's win total, almost certainly leads to a bowl game, and takes Dana Holgorsen off the hot seat by whatever formula you come up with.
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