SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC #2; Coastal #2) |
 #20 |
2014 Results |
AP NR USA NR | Strength:#40 Success:#23 Overall:#37 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Beat Cincinnati 33-17 (Military) |
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| 2015 Outlook |
Picks: AP #29 | USA #29 | Lindy's #24 | Athlon #35 | Steele #20 | ESPN #24 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 98% Playoff odds: 4% | ||
Virginia Tech had eight years of double-digit win seasons in a row, but that hasn't happened for the last three years. Is it time for them to start a new streak?
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2014 Scoring Offense: #96 (raw) #81 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #63 (adjusted) |
One way or another the Hokie offense should be a lot more competent this year. We show it coming from an improved passing game, but if the ground game gets its act together then it might happen there instead.
| Passing Game |
2014 Passing Rank: #77 (raw) #83 (adjusted) | 2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #102 |
| 2015 Projected Passing Rank: #48 (adjusted) |
2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #111 |
Michael Brewer's first year as a full-time starter was a bit rocky; he finished with 2,692 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. With five of last year's six top targets back he should do a lot better. The top trio of Isaiah Ford (709 yards), Bucky Hodges (526), and Cam Phillips (498) returns, and they still have Demitri Knowles who had 641 yards in '13, and TE Kalvin Cline is back from medical redshirt. Protection was a big issue last year (34 sacks) and one that probably won't go away with three O-Line starters gone, but with all the targets available Brewer will feel more like he did at Texas Tech when he completed 71%, not last year's 59%.
| Rushing | 2014 Rushing Rank: #89 (raw) #72 (adjusted) | 2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #69 (adj.) |
The Hokies return almost their full complement of running backs from last year, but the question is, which ones will play? JC Coleman (#1 with 533 yards) seems to be the top option, but #2 Marshawn Williams (475) is still recovering from an ACL tear and will probably have to redshirt. #3 Shai McKenzie (269) is in the same boat but is more likely to play this year. Trey Edmunds (#5 w/97 yards last year, 675 in '13) is back at full strength now. In any case the problem is not lack of options in the backfield but the offensive line where three starters are gone. Augie Conte is back with Johnathan McLaughlin, and Wyatt Teller started half-time as a freshman. Can the running backs stay injury-free this year? It's possible that the Hokies could be a strong running team this year but we project mild improvement.
| 2014 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #19 Pass Defense per-game: #21 Per-attempt: #25 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'14 Scoring Defense: #13 (raw) #9 (adjusted) | '14 sacks: #3 | '14 picks: #64 |
| '15 Projected Scoring Defense: #5 (adjusted) |
'15 sacks: #2 | '15 picks: #34 | |
As good as Virginia Tech was up front on defense last year, they should be even better in 2015. All four starters return to the defensive line and with Dadi Nicolas (9 sacks plus 9.5 tackles for loss) and Ken Ekanem (9.5 sacks) back, as well as the return of 2013 starter Luther Maddy (6.5 sacks in '13) the pass rush could be even better than last year. Only one starter is back at linebacker—Deon Clarke (5 sacks)—but three return to the secondary including Chuck Clarke (11 pass breakups) and Kendall Fuller (15 pass breakups); further, corner Brandon Facyson (5 interceptions) returns from redshirting last season. All of this makes Virginia Tech probably one of the best defenses in the nation.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter AJ Hughes (39.9 average) is back along with kicker Joey Slye (20 of 28 FG).
- Return Game: Greg Stroman (6.9 average on punt returns) and Demitri Knowles (18.0 on kickoffs) are both back. Knowles had a touchdown return as a freshman (2012).
- Turnovers projection: Michael Brewer should cut down on the interceptions a bit, while the defense probably picks up a few more than last year's 12.
Coaching Hot Seat Ranking: #15 (HOT)
According to our formula, Frank Beamer is on the hot seat. What it doesn't take into account is that he's Frank Beamer—sure, there are many Hokie fans who think it's time for him to move on, but putting him #15 definitely overestimates that. The key to this ranking is expectation, which Beamer himself has created. Over a 3 decade span Virginia Tech has averaged almost 8 1/2 wins, and had 8 straight years of double-digit wins from 2004 to 2011. The last three years of 7, 8, and 7 fall short of that. But even in this what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, Beamer isn't going to be sent packing. He's set to coach through 2016 and he will.
Recruiting 2015 Recruiting Rank: #23 2014 Recruiting Rank: #21
Any worries about recruits not signing because Beamer is getting old and won't be coaching much longer? They're not showing up in the actual recruiting results, which again has Beamer bringing in a strong class that ranks among the best in the ACC.
2014 Recap
Virginia Tech was an up and down team, but before people knew that, they looked like a national title contender. That was all because of the Ohio State upset. A 35-21 road win, no less. By the next weekend it was still a hot topic, so much so that when the Hokies lost to East Carolina 28-21, people wondered if the Pirates might be a contender, too. But when Virginia Tech lost to Georgia Tech 27-24, the national title talk stopped, and as the losses—to Pitt, Miami, Boston College—mounted, giving the Hokies a 4-5 record, the script was flipped to: how did Ohio State lose to them? The only logical conclusion is that the Ohio State game itself was a fluke. It's an outlier on Virginia Tech's chart as well as Ohio State's chart. The Hokies went on to upset Duke, who led the ACC Coastal at the time, but followed that with a double overtime loss to lowly Wake Forest—a game that ended in a zero to zero tie in regulation. They bounced back to beat rival Virginia 24-20 to achieve bowl eligibility. The Hokies went on to top Cincy 33-17 in the Military Bowl to avoid having their first losing season since 1992.
Last year's prediction: We got their ranking roughly correct, as the Hokies ended #40 and we had put them #38. We projected too good of a record (8-4), and we made the Hokies favorites in 10 games. The other two? Ohio State and North Carolina, both games that they won. Add their six actual losses and our game-by-game picks for Virginia Tech were dismal: 4 correct, 8 incorrect. But then again, few were good at predicting what the Hokies were going to do in real time, let alone before the season started.
2015 Outlook
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Virginia Tech 2015 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/6 | Sun | vs. | Ohio State | 18% | L | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Furman | 100% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | Purdue | 80% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | East Carolina | 83% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Pittsburgh | 78% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Fri | vs. | *NC State | 76% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *Miami FL | 57% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | *Duke | 84% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | @ | *Boston College | 75% | W | |||
| 11/12 | Thu | @ | *Georgia Tech | 40% | L | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina | 74% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *Virginia | 74% | W | |||
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Straight up: 10-2 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 98%
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After Labor Day weekend it's smooth sailing for the Hokies. They have a breather vs. Furman, then travel to Purdue and East Carolina for what should be mildy-challenging wins. Back at home Pittsburgh and North Carolina State will be tougher opponents but should be wins, too.
The game in Miami will be tough but it's winnable, and then Duke and Boston College could make it eight wins in a row for Virginia Tech. But let's go back to the beginning of the season, for the game that will be more important than all of those: Ohio State.
Last year when Virginia Tech upset Ohio State in the Horseshoe it rocked the college football world. A win by Virginia Tech this year at home would be an even bigger shock given that the Buckeyes are the first-ever unanimous #1 in the AP pre-season poll. We give the Hokies about a 1 in 5 chance to make it happen. Last year we said 1 in 4.
So assuming a loss there, an 8-game winning streak would be just what the doctor ordered. We show it probably coming to an end at Georgia Tech, but a 10-2 regular season is a solid possibility.
Of course, given how unpredictable and injury-prone the team was, counting on the Hokies to be consistent might be unwarranted; the cumulative estimate for an 8-4 season might be more reliable though the most likely outcome by our own numbers is 9-3. In any case, between regular-season wins, a possible ACC title game appearance, and a bowl game, it's clear that Virginia Tech has a good chance to get back to double-digits in the win column again.
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