2015 Pre-season Rankings: #11 USC Trojans

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

USC Trojans  (Pac-12 #2; South #1)

#11	2014 Results	AP #20 USA #21	Strength:#17  Success:#19  Overall:#16
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Beat Nebraska 45-42 (Holiday)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #8 | USA #10 | Lindy's #11 | Athlon #6 | Steele #4 | ESPN #12
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99%   Playoff odds: 6%

Ever since the NCAA sanctions against the program, USC has been somewhat schizophrenic. At times they played like national champs; at others, they fell flat. Most people have attributed this to the scholarship reductions. With the sanctions over the program is getting closer to having a full roster, but when will we see the USC look like USC? That is, when will they be both good and consistent?

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #24 (raw) #21 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #13 (adjusted)

We paradoxically show the passing game dropping in rank, the running game dropping in rank, but the offense going up in rank. In actual numbers they all stay about the same, but vary against other teams' estimates. In other words, the USC offense should be as good as it was last year or even a bit better.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #15 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #96
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #30 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #52

Cody Kessler (3,826 yards, 36 TDs, 5 interceptions) had a Heisman-like year on a non-Heisman team, so he didn't get notice for it—until after the season, when everyone started to mention it. Kessler is back but most of his receivers are not. In fact, 5 of the top 8 are gone including #1 Nelson Agholor (104 receptions, 1,313 yards, 12 TDs). #2 Juju Smith (724 yards) is back along with the #5 and #8 pass catchers. This might put a crimp in Kessler's Heisman hopes but at least he'll have much better protection as the entire offensive line is back. They should greatly reduce last year's 32 sacks. As mentioned on Offense above, we project a miniscule decline that somehow translates into 10 rungs (it's a very crowded area I suppose, that 20-30 zone).

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #68 (raw) #47 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #56 (adj.)

Javorius Allen (1,489 yards, 11 TDs) is gone, but Justin Davis (595 yards) is back and so is Tre Madden who had 703 yards in 2013. Those two, running behind a line that returns all its starters, should be able to nearly make up all of last year's production (even if it looks like another 10+ rung decline). The O-Line returns senior Max Tuerk, juniors Zach Banner and Chad Wheeler, and sophomores Viane Talamaivao and Toa Lobendahn. Note that a big decrease in sack yardage also 'contributes' to rushing totals in college ball.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #20    Pass Defense  per-game: #85   Per-attempt: #24
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #47 (raw) #24 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #33	'14 picks: #36
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #32	'15 picks: #7

The D-Line will miss Leonard Williams (7 sacks) but two senior starters are back in the front of the 3-4. At linebacker the "rush" LB JR Tavai (7 sacks) is gone, but with Su'a Cravens (5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss) back—plus Lamar Dawson and Jabari Ruffin coming back from injury—the corps is in good shape. The secondary returns Kevon Seymour (13 pass breakups) and Adoree Jackson (10 pass breakups) who started both at cornerback and wide receiver (#8 w/138 yards). We expect a stronger defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Kris Albarado (41.4 average) is back but kicker Andre Heidari (9 of 11 FG) departs.
• Return Game:  USC had 4 touchdown returns last year. Two were by Nelson Agholor (10.4 ave) on punts; the other two were by WR/corner Adoree Jackson on kickoffs (29.7 ave). Jackson is back, Agholor is not.
• Turnovers projection:  We think the defense is ripe to get more than last year's 14 picks.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #68 (MILD)
This is a perfect case to explain that our Hot Seat formula does not take anything into account other than wins and losses. This ranking, in the 'mild' quadrant, meaning not Hot (in danger) nor Cold (very safe) shows Steve Sarkisian, after completing one season at 9-4, to not be on the hot seat but still not having reached the point where everyone is saying "he's our guy!" 9-4 was a step down from the previous year, actually, but it was a fair result and it was only his first season.
That ranking made sense until about a week ago when Sarkisian drunkenly berated other teams in the Pac-12 and generally embarrassed himself, needing to be pulled offstage by AD Pat Haden. That will make your coaching seat a whole lot hotter a whole lot faster, and it had nothing to do with wins and losses.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #4          2014 Recruiting Rank: #25
Sarkisian's first "real" class (the other was in the coaching transition year and was still limited by NCAA sanctions) is pretty impressive, ranking among the top SEC teams at the top of the FBS. Three of the four consensus 5-star players in the class are on defense: Iman Marshall (corner, Long Beach CA), Rasheem Green (tackle, Gardena CA), and Osa Masina (LB, Salt Lake City UT). Chuma Edoga is an offensive lineman from Georgia who will have to wait his turn as this year's O-Line is stacked.

2014 Recap
USC impressed early with a 52-13 win over Fresno State and a 13-10 victory at Stanford, but they hit a pothole with the 37-31 loss to Boston College. They fell to Arizona State on a last-second hail Mary, but then beat Arizona when the Wildcats missed a last-second field goal. From there they beat the weak teams and lost to the good ones, including Utah and UCLA, until the final game where they toasted Notre Dame 49-14. That set up a great bowl game against Nebraska that lived up to the hype as USC edged the Cornhuskers 45-42. It wasn't everything that USC fans wanted, but it was acceptable for a first-year head coach.

Last year's prediction: We put USC #9 with the caveat that the scholarship reductions were still hurting the team and that they'd be inconsistent. That certainly was true. We projected an 8-4 record and that's what they ended up with, just not the way you'd expect it. We picked losses to Stanford and UCLA; instead they beat Stanford and lost to Boston College, ASU, and Utah. The Utah loss wasn't completely unexpected as we'd given the Utes a 47% chance, but we gave B.C. only a 15% chance for the upset. Overall we were pretty close on the offense and defensive projections, and as for Cody Kessler we wrote "his efficiency suggests that pushing the pace will be a good thing."

2015 Outlook

USC 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	95%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Idaho	99%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	74%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Arizona State	61%	W
10/8	Thu	vs.	*Washington	96%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Notre Dame	52%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Utah	80%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*California	61%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	76%	W
11/13	Fri	@	*Colorado	83%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Oregon	32%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	68%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

It looks like there are just a few key games separating USC from an undefeated season—assuming they can get the whole "consistency" thing under control.

The first two games (Arkansas State, Idaho) are warmups for game three when they host Stanford. We think the Cardinal are going to come up short again. Traveling to Arizona State will make for an even tougher challenge, but not so for Washington at home. Can USC be 5-0 at this point? Yes, if they play consistently.

Their first big challenge is Notre Dame at South Bend, and the Irish will be out for revenge. Have things changed enough that last year's 49-14 is moot? Probably, since Notre Dame was reeling at the time and very unmotivated. This should be a very close game.

The Trojans can certainly beat Utah, Arizona, and Colorado, and should be able to beat Cal and UCLA. But the big question is, can they beat Oregon on the road? We think they've come pretty far but they're not quite at that level yet. Still, it should be a good game, not a runaway win for the Ducks.

Even if they do beat the Ducks once, they might have to do it again in the Pac-12 Championship game, which will probably lead to a College Football Playoff berth for the winner. If USC plays consistently enough to win the games they should, then they essentially have 2 tries at beating the Ducks to get there.

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SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128