2015 Pre-season Rankings: #17 UCLA Bruins

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

UCLA Bruins  (Pac-12 #3; South #2)

#17	2014 Results	AP #10 USA #10	Strength:#19  Success:#8  Overall:#14
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Kansas State 40-35 (Alamo)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #13 | USA #14 | Lindy's #20 | Athlon #23 | Steele #12 | ESPN #11
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99%   Playoff odds: 4%

UCLA loses their star quarterback but the pollsters only drop them a couple of spots because most of the rest of the team returns.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #39 (raw) #18 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #15 (adjusted)

The Bruins lose Brett Hundley but with nearly everyone else back the offense could improve.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #44 (raw) #33 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #115
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #37 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #105

Brett Hundley (3,155 yards, 22 TDs, 5 int) had a fine junior year, after which everyone knew he would leave. He hands the reigns over to true freshman Josh Rosen; how will the passing game fare going from a 3-year starter to one who has never played college football? Well, Rosen is a rare talent by all reports and he's coming into a good situation receiver-wise. The top five pass catchers are back led by #1 Jordan Payton (954 yards, 7 TDs) and #2 Thomas Duarte (540). Pass protection has been a problem for UCLA for years now and they seemed resigned to allowing 40 or so sacks each year. Not the way you want to break in a freshman QB but the O-Line should be at least a little better in that department. All in all, we look for roughly the same production but with the usual growing pains.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #34 (raw) #19 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #10 (adj.)

Paul Perkins (1,575 yards, 9 TDs) is back but Brett Hundley (644 yards, 10 TDs) is not; Josh Rosen can run but won't run the way Hundley did. Luckily the offensive line should be stronger this year. Jake Brendel, Caleb Benenoch, and Alex Redmond return, while Conor McDermott started half-time. 2012 starter Simon Goines is back from a redshirt year, just as they lose Scott Quessenberry to a redshirt for his summer injuries. Perkins should have another stellar year and get more non-QB support behind a line that will try to stay healthy for once. How much the ground game produces depends on how quickly the passing game comes along, but Perkins averaged 6.3 yards per carry despite being called on a lot last year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #42    Pass Defense  per-game: #60   Per-attempt: #15
Defense 7.5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #76 (raw) #33 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #57	'14 picks: #79
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #32 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #67	'15 picks: #70

UCLA's 3-man front returns two starters, though that means overcoming the loss of Owamagbe Odighizuwa (6 sacks). At linebacker they lose top tackler Eric Kendricks (149 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) but 2-way phenomenon Myles Jack (8 tackles for loss, also #5 rusher last year) is still around along with sacks leader Deon Hollins (9 sacks). The secondary has at least three starters back, so it's in fine shape regardless of the departure of backup Priest Willis; they also get 2013 starter Randall Goforth back from injury. There aren't many losses but those they have are significant (3 of top 4 tacklers) so while we see improvement it might not be huge. In fact, once we dock 1/2 of corner Ishmael Adams (out indefinitely due to robbery charges) it's pretty much a wash.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Matt Mengel (40.2 average) is back with kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn (18 of 22 field goals).
• Return Game:  Ishmael Adams starts in the secondary and is also the team's return ace, averaging 9.2 yards per punt return and 22.7 on kickoffs, with 1 touchdown.
• Turnovers projection:  Brett Hundley threw just 5 picks last year, and it's not easy to tell how many Josh Rosen will have but odds are it will be more, probably quite a few more.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #82 (COOL)
Jim Mora is pretty well accepted here now, thanks to 9-, 10-, and 10-win seasons (the best predecessor Rick Neuheisel did was 7 wins). His biggest problem is dealing with the sons of famous rappers: P. Diddy attacked UCLA strength coach Sal Alosi with a kettle bell over a dispute involving his linebacker son, Justin Combs, and Snoop Dogg's son Cordell Broadus, a 4-star recruit this year, quit football.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #18          2014 Recruiting Rank: #37
This year's class, even minus Snoop Dogg Jr, is pretty good, vying with several others for 2nd best in the Pac-12 behind USC. Of course QB Josh Rosen from Bellflower, CA was the big catch and he'll be starting in the fall. On defense Keisean Lucier-South is the top recruit, while RB Soso Jamabo from Plano, TX might see time in the backfield immediately, as long as there is no fallout from a spring incident where he fled from police.

2014 Recap
Can a 10-win season with a top 10 finish in the polls feel like a disappointment? With expectations sky-high, UCLA started the season on a bum note, beating Virginia 28-20, but it would be their high-water mark for a few more games. They escaped with a 7-point home win over Memphis then beat Texas by just a field goal, 20-17. Then they exploded for 62 points against Arizona State. But it didn't last—the lost to Utah 30-28, to Oregon 42-30, beat Cal by 2 and Colorado in double overtime. Just when it looked bleakest, they beat Arizona, Washington, and USC. And then, just when it looked like they'd figured it out, they played their worst game of the season at home against Stanford, losing 31-10. From another low point, the bowl game was a microcosm of the season, as they took a 31-6 lead over Kansas State but played a terrible 2nd half, winning 40-35. It was a success that felt a bit disappointing in the end.

Last year's prediction: We didn't just drink the Kool Aid, we were mixing it up and serving it out! We put UCLA #3 in the nation and projected a 10-2 season, favoring the Bruins in every game. But the passing game didn't improve like we expected and with it, the offense wasn't any better. The defense went the opposite direction. The team showed only the occasional flashes of the kind of quality we'd foreseen for them.

2015 Outlook

UCLA 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Virginia	89%	W
9/12	Sat	@	UNLV	99%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Brigham Young	90%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Arizona	47%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	64%	W
10/15	Thu	@	*Stanford	44%	L
10/22	Thu	vs.	*California	66%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	86%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Oregon State	95%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	89%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Utah	54%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*USC	30%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

UCLA's first trio of games shouldn't be a challenge: Virginia and BYU are decent teams but the Bruins are at home, and UNLV is not good this year. The next four games are a different story. Arizona and Stanford on the road are up in the air, while Arizona State and California, even in Los Angeles, are going to be tough games.

Then the Bruins have another trio of games that should be relatively easy: Colorado, Oregon State, and Washington State. Combine those with the opening trio and you can see why we give UCLA a 99% chance of going to a bowl game.

The final two games are tough road games at Utah and USC, the latter being the only game in which we make UCLA a very clear underdog. So an 11-1 season is not an unrealistic goal, and the 9-3 cumulative projection will come true if they drop the two tossup games along with USC. There is a slight chance to Bruins make it through at 12-0, and in any case if they manage to win the South they'd probably have to play Oregon for the Pac-12 title. We give them about a 5% chance of making the College Football Playoff—much smaller than the chance we gave them last year when we ranked them in the top 4, of course. But when you lose a 3-year starting QB and are still ranked just as high by the pollsters, the program is in pretty good shape.

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