2015 Pre-season Rankings: #10 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Oklahoma Sooners  (Big Twelve #3)

#10	2014 Results	AP #35 USA #37	Strength:#14  Success:#43  Overall:#17
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Clemson 40-6 (Russell Athletic)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #19 | USA #19 | Lindy's #21 | Athlon #17 | Steele #16 | ESPN #15
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.7%   Playoff odds: 12%

Last year we were the most pessimistic on Oklahoma; this year we look like the most optimistic.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #20 (raw) #12 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #8 (adjusted)

The Air Raid is coming to Norman, Oklahoma. But that doesn't mean they won't also have a killer ground game courtesy of Samaje Perine.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #85 (raw) #65 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #2
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #10 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #14

Trevor Knight (2,300 yards, 14 TDs, 12 int) wasn't the QB solution that Oklahoma had hoped for; once again, a single performance (in this case, the 2013-season Sugar Bowl) didn't point toward a better year ahead. He's back but Baker Mayfield (2,315 yards, 12:9 at Texas Tech in '13) was named starter for 2015. The passing game won't remain in a rut as new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley (from East Carolina) is installing an Air Raid offense. With last year's top three receivers back including Sterling Shepard (970 yards) and Durron Neil (513) and of course a lot more passing attempts in a faster offense, look for production to rocket. The one question mark is pass protection, but that was so incredibly good last year (9 sacks allowed) that things can get a lot worse and not even be close to bad.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #13 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #17 (adj.)

Samaje Perine (1,713 yards, 21 TDs) had an insane freshman year, punctuated by setting the all-time FBS single-game rushing record against Kansas (427 yards). He's back and they also have Alex Ross (595 yards). What will the new Air Raid offense mean for their numbers? Probably down, especially considering the offensive line returns just one full-time starter in center Ty Darlington. They also have Nila Kasitati who started half-time. The reason we don't see production dropping that much is due to the offense probably being faster—East Carolina ran 10 more plays per game than Oklahoma last year, and while the Sooners probably won't match that, it will be faster and that helps replace some of the rushing reps that the passing game "steals." It does mean that Perine won't top 2,000 yards this year, something that might have happened if last year's offensive scheme remained.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #24    Pass Defense  per-game: #43   Per-attempt: #30
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #55 (raw) #28 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #39	'14 picks: #66
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #32 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #35	'15 picks: #43

The Sooner defensive line has just one starter back and switches to a 4-man front, making it a question mark as they lose Jordan Phillips to the NFL. The linebacker corps is looking good, however, with top tackler Dominique Alexander (107 tackles) back along with Eric Striker (9 sacks, 8 tackles for loss), plus the return of 2013 starter Frank Shannon. The secondary has two starters back including Zach Sanchez (6 interceptions). The defense looks stronger but with the sped-up offense we rate it down a notch.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Michael Hunnicutt (13 of 18 field goals) and punter Jed Barnett (41.9 ave) are gone.
• Return Game:  Punt returner Sterling Shepard (6.6 ave) is back as is Alex Ross (31.2 ave) who had 2 touchdowns on kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  This area looks good for Oklahoma compared to last season. They should have better luck on fumbles, and the defense should have a few more interceptions than last year's 12. The QB position should reduce last year's 16 picks, too, mainly because with Mayfield and Knight both available they won't play Cody Thomas (4 interceptions in 66 attempts).

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #25 (HOT)
Bob Stoops makes the edge of the "hot" quadrant in our Hot Seat formula, mainly because he slipped to 8 wins from 11 the previous year, and the 2nd half of the season was less successful. He shouldn't be this high (seat is not so "hot"), of course, but it does reflect the high standards of Oklahoma football (9 win average over 30 years). And Stoops did make some unusual changes this year, changing offensive coordinators and even marginalizing Mike Stoops' role as defensive coordinator.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #11          2014 Recruiting Rank: #12
Recruiting continues to be excellent at Oklahoma, maybe not top ten nationally but close, and in the Big Twelve competing with Texas for the top spot (no other team is close).

2014 Recap
Pegged as a possible national champ, Oklahoma was great in its first five games: the 48-16 blowout of underrated Louisiana Tech, blasting Tulsa 52-7, beating Tennessee 34-10, and defeating West Virginia 45-33 on the road. Even the narrow 37-33 loss at TCU was a top ten performance. But after the loss they started to slip, and it happened on defense. Texas scored 26, then Kansas State scored 31 in the upset. The Sooners blasted Iowa State 59-14 and looked like their former selves but then got blasted by Baylor 48-14 as Trevor Knight was hurt. After that the offense shifted to run mode and didn't miss too much, but the defensive drop was particularly apparent against Oklahoma State (38-35). Everything fell apart against Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl, a bad finish to an ultimately disappointing season.

Last year's prediction: Oklahoma was in everyone's top 5: AP #4, Coaches #3, Lindy's #3, Athlon #4, Phil Steele #5. We had the Sooners #12 and projected a 9-3 season, and they didn't even quite get there. Of Trevor Knight we wrote "after his Sugar Bowl performance everyone is expecting great things from Knight; we're still skeptical since over 250 of his bowl yards were to receivers no longer here."

2015 Outlook

Oklahoma 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Akron	99%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Tennessee	37%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	99%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	80%	W
10/10	Sat	N	*Texas	81%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Kansas State	79%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	87%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Kansas	99%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	96%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Baylor	31%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*TCU	43%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	74%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.7%

This year Oklahoma has three games against teams we rank above them in the top ten: Baylor, TCU, and Tennessee.

Last year the Sooners blasted Tennessee at home, 34-10; now they're playing in Knoxville and the Volunteers are a much better team. That game is sandwiched between cupcake foes Akron and Tulsa, but starting 3-0 is unlikely.

Oklahoma is strong enough to beat West Virginia, Texas, and Kansas State, and the three games that follow—Texas Tech, Kansas, and Iowa State—should be even easier. That makes for a 7-game stretch where any loss would be considered a pretty big upset in our book.

But then they have Baylor and TCU back-to-back, and winning either of them would be a bonus. They have more chance with the Horned Frogs since that one is at home. Then the Sooners travel to Oklahoma State and should win there, though with that rivalry nothing is easy to predict.

Both the game-by-game and cumulative estimates reflect the lower odds of beating their toughest opponents, and if—a big "if"—they don't fall victim to a big upset, 9-3 is the worst they should expect to do. How well might they do? 12-0 gets them to the College Football Playoff, easy, and 11-1 might, too. It's probably most important that they beat Tennessee, as losing that one would put them behind who knows how many SEC teams in the pecking order.

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