SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Missouri Tigers (SEC #11; East #4) |
 #29 |
2014 Results |
AP #14 USA #11 | Strength:#21 Success:#18 Overall:#23 |
| Record: 11-3 | Bowl: Beat Minnesota 33-17 (Citrus) |
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| 2015 Outlook |
Picks: AP #24 | USA #23 | Lindy's #25 | Athlon #27 | Steele #31 | ESPN #26 |
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| Record: 7-5 | Bowl odds: 85% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Missouri is gunning for a 3rd straight SEC title game appearance and a 3rd straight 10+ win season. We don't think they'll get either, but we were wrong about both last year.
| Offense 6 ret. starters |
2014 Scoring Offense: #71 (raw) #45 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #51 (adjusted) |
The offense loses a lot of receivers and a key running back but shouldn't slip too much.
| Passing Game |
2014 Passing Rank: #101 (raw) #86 (adjusted) | 2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #39 |
| 2015 Projected Passing Rank: #104 (adjusted) |
2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #34 |
Last year we bucked the trend of hype for Maty Mauk, projecting a big drop-off in passing production; we noted his 51% completion rate and loss of receivers and basically forecast a sophomore slump for the team. Mauk (2,648 yards, 25 TDs, 13 int) more than doubled his own numbers but team production fell from 3,500 yards and Mauk still only completed 53%. This year doesn't look any better as Missouri's receiver corps is decimated worse than last year; gone are #1 Bud Sasser (1,003 yards, 12 TDs) and #2 Jimmie Hunt (698 yards, 7 TDs), and #s 3 and 4 as well. Tight end Sean Culkin (174 yards), the #5 receiver, is the only one back who topped 100 yards. We were a little too harsh in our projection last year (#96) so maybe they can match last year's numbers, and they do have experience at backup with Corbin Berkstresser (1,059 yards in '12).
| Rushing | 2014 Rushing Rank: #55 (raw) #36 (adjusted) | 2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #34 (adj.) |
Mizzou had a great 1-2 punch with Russell Hansbrough (1,084 yards, 10 TDs) and Marcus Murphy (924 yards). The latter is gone but Hansbrough should have another fine year running behind a stronger offensive line. Seniors Evan Boehm, Connor McGovern, Taylor Chappell, and Brad McNulty are all back; the first two started every game and the latter two the majority. We see the ground game being just as good despite losing a key RB.
| 2014 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #10 Pass Defense per-game: #39 Per-attempt: #10 | ||
| Defense 5 ret. starters |
'14 Scoring Defense: #22 (raw) #7 (adjusted) | '14 sacks: #14 | '14 picks: #78 |
| '15 Projected Scoring Defense: #17 (adjusted) |
'15 sacks: #65 | '15 picks: #62 | |
The obvious concern for Missouri this year is the defensive line where all four starters are gone. They lose sack leaders Markus Golden (10 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) and Shane Ray (14.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss), and Harold Brantley (5 sacks) was involved in a car crash and won't play this year. This takes Missouri's vaunted pass rush down to mediocre and the top ten rush defense is bound to suffer, too. At linebacker, however, two starters are back and they are the team's top tacklers, Kentrell Brothers (122 tackles) and Michael Scherer (114). And the secondary brings back three starters including Aarion Penton (10 pass breakups). With the weakness up front we don't see Mizzou fielding a top ten scoring defense but they could remain in the top 25.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Andrew Baggett (18 of 25 field goals) is back but punter Christian Brinser (41.1 average) departs.
- Return Game: All-purpose talent Marcus Murphy was the team's #4 receiver and #2 rusher last year, and he also excelled at kick returns, averaging 10.4 yards on punts and 29.6 on kickoffs, with 3 total touchdowns. For all his other contributions, it might be here that he's missed most.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see a big change in any area but the cumulative result should be good for the Tigers.
Coaching Hot Seat Ranking: #123 (COLD)
A few years ago following a 5-7 season some questioned whether Missouri belonged in the SEC and whether Gary Pinkel had been here long enough. After 12-2 and 11-3 seasons, no one's asking those questions anymore.
Recruiting 2015 Recruiting Rank: #28 2014 Recruiting Rank: #17
Last year's recruiting class was up to par for the SEC—i.e., firmly in the top 25. This year's group is questionable on that front, but still not bad at all nationally. Their top recruit is consensus 5-star defensive lineman Terry Beckner from East St. Louis. He's coming in at the right time for the Mizzou defense's depleted D-Line.
2014 Recap
Missouri started off with three pretty good wins, but then came a bad up-and-down stretch in which they lost to Indiana 31-27, narrowly edge South Carolina 21-20, and got crushed 34-0 by Georgia. The Tigers didn't dwell on the shutout loss; they simply decapitated Florida, 42-13 at the swamp, scoring every way other than with their offense: on a kickoff, a punt, a fumble, and an interception (they got a fifth touchdown after a fumble recovery in the red zone). The Tigers slipped back to mediocre in wins over Vandy and Kentucky, but they beat the Aggies, the Vols, and the Razorbacks to earn a shot at the Tide. That shot failed, 42-13, but at least they got it. In the Citrus Bowl they dispatched Minnesota to finish 11-3.
Last year's prediction: We rated Missouri just a bit low at #27 and projected an 8-4 record which the Tigers surpassed by two wins. We didn't quite predict the upset loss to Indiana (Mizzou 52% to win) and we didn't give them the South Carolina, Florida, or Texas A&M wins either.
2015 Outlook
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Missouri 2015 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | SE Missouri State | 100% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | @ | Arkansas State | 71% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Connecticut | 97% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Kentucky | 45% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *South Carolina | 67% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *Florida | 58% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *Georgia | 10% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Vanderbilt | 72% | W | |||
| 11/5 | Thu | vs. | *Mississippi State | 42% | L | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | Brigham Young | 85% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *Tennessee | 27% | L | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas | 22% | L | |||
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Straight up: 7-5 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 85%
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We're predicting a lot of success for Missouri outside of the SEC, and not a whole lot within it. Southeast Missouri State is a game hardly worth playing—and Connecticut probably isn't worth much more. Arkansas State on the road will be a challenge, as will BYU at home later in the season, but the Tigers should win all four.
The SEC season is going to be tough, and as usual for Missouri the wins and losses will be hard to pick. Kentucky might be a tossup game this year on the road, but we favor the Tigers slightly against both South Carolina and Florida at home. The toughest game will be Georgia in Athens, and considering they lost 34-0 at home this year that's not surprising.
Vanderbilt is the last SEC game in which we favor the Tigers; after that, Mississippi State should be closely contested at home, while Tennessee and Arkansas both look like very strong teams this year.
Mizzou's plan for a third straight season of double-digit wins? Beat Kentucky early on the road, then beat Mississippi State at home, for 9 wins. This still won't put them in a 3rd consecutive SEC title game, so they'll have to win their bowl game to go 10-3.
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