SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Clemson Tigers (ACC #4; Atlantic #2) |
 #26 |
2014 Results |
AP #15 USA #15 | Strength:#18 Success:#17 Overall:#21 |
| Record: 10-3 | Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 40-6 (Russell Athletic) |
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| 2015 Outlook |
Picks: AP #12 | USA #12 | Lindy's #9 | Athlon #14 | Steele #22 | ESPN #19 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 96% Playoff odds: 4% | ||
The lockdown Clemson defense loses all but 2 starters but the team's ACC title hopes are still alive as their toughest games are still 50/50 propositions. Trouble is, they have about six of those.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2014 Scoring Offense: #52 (raw) #51 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #50 (adjusted) |
If Deshaun Watson comes back 100% and stays injury-free the whole season Clemson's offense could be very good. But with the offensive line depleted, his odds of staying healthy decrease.
| Passing Game |
2014 Passing Rank: #40 (raw) #49 (adjusted) | 2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #70 |
| 2015 Projected Passing Rank: #43 (adjusted) |
2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #98 |
Cole Stoudt (1,892 yards, 9 TDs, 10 interceptions) started at the beginning of the season and then later on whenever Deshaun Watson (1,466 yards, 14 TDs, 2 int) was hurt. Watson was clearly better but rarely healthy, but he's back while Stoudt moves on. Top receivers Mike Williams (1,030 yards) and Artavis Scott (965 yards) are both back along with five of six others who topped 100 yards. The offensive line returns just one starter which is a problem, particularly when it comes to keeping Watson healthy. And that's the 64K question; hurt twice during the 2014 season, will Watson really make it the whole way in '15? We still call for production to increase, but not by much.
| Rushing | 2014 Rushing Rank: #91 (raw) #87 (adjusted) | 2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #95 (adj.) |
The situation at running back for Clemson is very good: #1 rusher Wayne Gallman (769 yards) is back along with three others who had 200+ yards, including QB Deshaun Watson (#4 w/200). The problem lies in the offensive line which loses four starters. Senior center Ryan Norton is back and Isaiah Battle returned but left for the NFL supplemental draft in the summer. With much weaker O-Line play the ground game may have trouble getting traction.
| 2014 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #4 Pass Defense per-game: #5 Per-attempt: #4 | ||
| Defense 2 ret. starters |
'14 Scoring Defense: #3 (raw) #5 (adjusted) | '14 sacks: #6 | '14 picks: #65 |
| '15 Projected Scoring Defense: #18 (adjusted) |
'15 sacks: #21 | '15 picks: #97 | |
Clemson plays a 4-3 and a 4-2-5, but whether they're in a 7-man or 6-man front they'll have no returning starters back there. The defensive line loses all four starters including Grady Jarrett (8.5 tackles for loss) and Vic Beasley (12 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss). Reserve Shaq Lawson (7.5 tackles for loss) will move into the starting lineup and the pass rush should remain strong but not terrifying like it was last year (45 sacks). Another reserve set to join the starting D-Line, DJ Reader, recently left the team for personal reasons though he may come back at some point. At linebacker #1 tackler Stephone Anthony (8 tackles for loss) is gone and with the attrition up front Clemson's top 5 rush defense is almost certainly a thing of the past. Behind that things are only a bit better. Nickelback Korrin Wiggins tore his ACL and is out for the year, though 2013 starter Travis Blanks returns. But two more starters are gone in the secondary including Garry Peters (12 pass breakups). In short, the personnel losses are deep and while great defenses tend to persist regardless, last year's great Tiger defense will probably become merely a good one.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter Brady Pinion (42.6 average) is gone, while kicker Ammon Lakip (21 of 28 field goals) is back but is suspended for the first three games of the season due to cocaine possession and DUI.
- Return Game: Punt fielder Adam Humphries (5.7 average, 1 touchdown) is gone while kickoff returner TJ Green (21.2 ave) is back.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see too much change here. The defense is likely to have fewer interceptions, but Deshaun Watson will probably throw fewer as well (14:2 ratio last year).
Coaching Hot Seat Ranking: #80 (COOL)
Four straight years of 10 or more wins will secure any coach's job, and beating LSU, Ohio State, and Oklahoma in consecutive bowl games seals the deal for Dabo Swinney.
Recruiting 2015 Recruiting Rank: #8 2014 Recruiting Rank: #26
Swinney's latest recruiting class is probably his best, ranking among the elite SEC programs and #1 in the ACC by our rankings. Three players are consensus 5-star recruits. Offensive lineman Mitch Hyatt from Georgia arrives at the right time to help the team immediately, as does defensive lineman Christian Wilkins from Connecticut. Deon Cain, a receiver from Tampa, may have to wait his turn to start but still should see the field a lot this year.
2014 Recap
Clemson lost to Georgia 45-21 but demolished South Carolina State 73-7 with Cliff Stoudt starting. Deshaun Watson threw 13 passes in those games and had 4 touchdowns. He replaced Stoudt early in the FSU game but it was just a bit too late and they lost in overtime, 23-17. Watson led them to 91 points in wins over the Carolinas but was hurt; the Tigers beat Louisville and Boston College with Stoudt but they scored just 40 points total. The offense continued to dwindle until it hit rock bottom vs. Georgia Tech (a 28-6 loss). Watson returned on a bad ACL to lead in the 35-17 win over South Carolina, but he had surgery before the bowl game. Stoudt ended his career on a high note, leading the Tigers to a 40-6 crushing of the depressed Sooners.
Last year's prediction: We ranked Clemson at #31 last year which ended up being too low. We felt that the offense would take a big hit and we were right: We downgraded the scoring offense from #8 to #56 (it fell to #51), the passing game from #10 to #48 (it fell to #49), and the running game from #32 to #81 (fell to #87). With that astounding accuracy, where did we go wrong? We projected the defense would improve from #28 to #20—instead it improved all the way to #5. In any case, we forecast an 8-4 season, and picked 9 games where Clemson was the favorite (3 underdog). We picked the Georgia loss, and the FSU loss, but had the Tigers losing to South Carolina instead of Georgia Tech.
2015 Outlook
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Clemson 2015 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Wofford | 99% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Appalachian State | 77% | W | |||
| 9/17 | Thu | @ | *Louisville | 63% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 49% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia Tech | 53% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 84% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Miami FL | 53% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | @ | *NC State | 56% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Florida State | 55% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | @ | *Syracuse | 86% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *Wake Forest | 92% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | South Carolina | 54% | W | |||
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Straight up: 11-1 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 96%
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Clemson's schedule consists of six games they should win, and six games that are more or less coin flips. In other words, every single game on their schedule is winnable, but they could rack up quite a few losses, too.
The first three games increase in difficulty in steps until the game at Louisville is a bit of a test, then the next game—hosting Notre Dame—ranks as perhaps their toughest test of the year. Hosting Georgia Tech isn't really any easier, and Clemson could be 5-0 or 3-2 at this point.
Boston College should be a win, but then it's right back to the closely-contested games, three in a row in fact starting with Miami on the road, travelling to NC State, and then hosting Florida State. The Tigers might have the edge in each of these but winning all three is going to take some amazing focus.
Syracuse and Wake Forest are the easiest ACC contests on the slate, but they finish at South Carolina for rivalry week. Adding everything up it comes out 8-4. If the Tigers split the close games and win the others that's 9-3 just like last year. But really nothing between 6-6 and 12-0 should be a surprise.
To accomplish the latter, the defense will have to keep it together and Deshaun Watson has to be healthy. If he misses any of the 50/50 games they'll probably lose. An ACC title and even a place in the College Football Playoff are possibilities if everything goes right for the Tigers.
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SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
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