2015 Pre-season Rankings: #24 California Golden Bears

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

California Golden Bears  (Pac-12 #6; North #3)

#24	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#51  Success:#78  Overall:#53
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #42 | USA NR | Lindy's #44 | Athlon #47 | Steele #36 | ESPN #35
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 91%   Playoff odds: 1%

Last year we called for a quantum leap in Cal's Strength rating; it happened, and now we think they're going for round two.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #13 (raw) #17 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #6 (adjusted)

Last year's powerful offense should get even better as the key players all return.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #6 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #85
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #5 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #85

Jared Goff (3,973 yards, 35 TDs, 7 interceptions) threw the ball a lot, got good results, and turned it over very little. The only thing you could ask for is a better completion percentage (62% last year) and it could happen with 7 receivers who topped 250 yards back in 2015 including #1 Kevin Lawler (701 yards, 9 TDs), Stephen Anderson (661 yards), and #4 Bryce Treggs (583). Only #3 Chris Harper (634 yards) is gone. We see Goff topping 4,000 yards rather easily.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #87 (raw) #67 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #44 (adj.)

Daniel Lasco (1,115 yards, 12 TDs) is back along with a trio of backups who combined for over 600 yards including last year's leader Khalid Muhammed (215 in '14, 445 in '13). The offensive line returns starters Chris Barrayo, Steven Moore, and Jordan Rigsbee. With a loaded backfield the running game should at least be above average this year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #41    Pass Defense  per-game: #127   Per-attempt: #115
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #124 (raw) #105 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #112	'14 picks: #56
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #73 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #98	'15 picks: #39

Cal's defense was poor last year and the culprit was clearly the pass defense. Though they lose Michael Lowe from the secondary things should improve with more big plays (sacks and interceptions). The defensive line is led by Mustafa Jalil, and linebackers Michael Barton, Hardy Nickerson, and Jalen Jefferson are back. Though they're pretty far down and it will be hard to even reach "average" level for the FBS, the defense should definitely climb out of the Bottom 25.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker James Langford (11 of 17 FG) is gone but punter Cole Leininger (39.8 yards) is back.
• Return Game:  WR and punt fielder Chris Harper (7.7 ave) is gone but #5 WR Trevor Davis, who averaged 32.6 yards on kickoffs thanks to two touchdown returns, is back.
• Turnovers projection:  Cal might improve a little bit in each area, but turnovers are random enough that it might not pan out.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #27 (WARM)
Sonny Dykes helped erase bad memories of his 1-11 debut with a 5-7 year, but it's time for a winning season at Cal.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #26          2014 Recruiting Rank: #66
Dykes' latest class is very good and helps establish that the program is going in the right direction. That argument could come in handy if Cal doesn't reach a bowl game this year.

2014 Recap 
Cal started with a good road win at Northwestern, 31-24 and crushed Sacramento State before falling to Arizona 49-45. They won two more Pac-12 shootouts with Colorado (59-56 2OT) and Washington State (60-59) to start 4-1. They won only once more, defeating Oregon State 45-31, but in the end the seven teams that beat them all had 8 or more wins.

Last year's prediction: We suggested that Cal could improve greatly from 1-11, jumping from #96 in our power rating in 2013 to a projected #59. They ended up at #51. We projected a 4-8 record and they made it to 5-7. On the schedule chart we only had Cal a favorite in 2 games, however (this is why the cumulative projection is our official pick) and they won both those games, plus three more.

2015 Outlook

California 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Grambling State	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	89%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Texas	55%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Washington	80%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	85%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Utah	46%	L
10/22	Thu	@	*UCLA	32%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*USC	39%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Oregon	17%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	97%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Stanford	38%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	59%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 91%

Cal's season once again might start with a bang and end with a bit of a fizzle, but this time it should end with the Golden Bears eligible for the post-season.

Grambling is not good competition for a strong FBS team, and that's what Cal should be this year. San Diego State probably won't be much tougher, but Texas definitely will be, and that game is in Austin. We give the Bears a very good shot at winning it.

Then the Bears take on both Washington teams back to back, and we like Cal in both. That means a 5-0 start is very possible, or at least a repeat of last year's 4-1 beginning. If the former, then they might be able to extend their run with a win at Utah, but that may be pushing it.

UCLA and USC are both possible wins, but it will be very tough to pull off one let alone two. And Oregon on the road is their hardest game of the year, but they still have a decent shot at getting an upset (in shoot-out fashion, of course). They finish with Oregon State (should be a win), Stanford on the road (probably a tough loss) and Arizona State at home (tough win).

Add them up and we see the Bears in the post-season. It might not be pretty—there will still be a lot of crazy-high numbers on both sides of the scoreboard—but if the defense makes the gains it should, then this year's shootouts should be against a higher caliber of opponent.

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