SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Auburn Tigers (SEC #8; West #6) |
 #14 |
2014 Results |
AP #22 USA #23 | Strength:#9 Success:#22 Overall:#10 |
| Record: 8-5 | Bowl: Lost to Wisconsin 34-31ot (Outback) |
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| 2015 Outlook |
Picks: AP #6 | USA #7 | Lindy's #8 | Athlon #4 | Steele #14 | ESPN #17 |
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| Record: 7-5 | Bowl odds: 88% Playoff odds: <1% | ||
Auburn has 5 teams above them in the SEC West and they play Georgia from the East. If they win their division they might have to face Georgia a 2nd time in Atlanta. That's why we give a team ranked this high so little chance to make the College Football Playoff.
| Offense 5 ret. starters |
2014 Scoring Offense: #28 (raw) #7 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #41 (adjusted) |
The Tigers lose their star quarterback and star running back and one of two top receivers. This looks like a big downgrade but the way Auburn has been recruiting, the drop won't be so pronounced.
| Passing Game |
2014 Passing Rank: #68 (raw) #39 (adjusted) | 2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #18 |
| 2015 Projected Passing Rank: #57 (adjusted) |
2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #20 |
Nick Marshall (2,532 yards, 20 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) threw the ball well enough for a dual-threat QB and didn't turn it over much. Jeremy Johnson (436 yards, 3:0) will take over and he should do nearly as well, but only one of last year's two go-to targets is back. Sammie Coates (#1 in yardage w/741) is gone while D'haquille Williams (#1 w/45 rec, 730 yards) is back. In all, just 3 of the top 7 return, but Johnson is good enough that if production drops it won't be by much, and if they throw the ball more he'll pass Marshall's numbers.
| Rushing | 2014 Rushing Rank: #14 (raw) #8 (adjusted) | 2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.) |
Auburn loses their top three rushers from last year including Cameron Artis-Payne (1,608 yards, 123 TDs) and of course QB Nick Marshall (798, 11). WR Ricardo Lewis (220 yards) is the leading returnee, but the projected starter is long-awaited juco Jovon Robinson. The offensive line returns starters Avery Young and Shon Coleman, while Devonte Danzey started half-time and Alex Kozan started in 2013. Artis-Payne's numbers will be hard to match, but moreso the ground production from the QB position is likely to be down a lot.
| 2014 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #38 Pass Defense per-game: #47 Per-attempt: #27 | ||
| Defense 8 ret. starters |
'14 Scoring Defense: #65 (raw) #23 (adjusted) | '14 sacks: #98 | '14 picks: #5 |
| '15 Projected Scoring Defense: #24 (adjusted) |
'15 sacks: #93 | '15 picks: #5 | |
Will Muschamp arrives from Florida to take over as Auburn's defensive coordinator. The Tiger defensive line is bolstered by the return of '13 starter Carl Lawson at the 'Buck' position but we don't foresee a huge improvement in the pass rush. Two starting linebackers return including Cassanova McKinzy (9.5 tackles for loss). In the secondary they lose Jermaine Whitehead (6 interceptions) but have Johnathan Jones (11 pass breakups, 6 interceptions) back. They also have Georgia transfer Tray Matthews and Michigan grad transfer Blake Countess (6 int in 2013). In raw figures Auburn's total defense was #67 and the scoring defense #65, but they faced great offenses (SEC schedule plus Kansas State and Louisiana Tech). We see the defense remaining about the same across the board—at a top 25 level. Muschamp always did have great defenses at Florida, so we'll see how much effect he has this fall.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter/kicker Daniel Carlson is back; he averaged 42.0 on punts and made 18 of 24 field goals.
- Return Game: Quan Bray had 2 touchdown returns last year on punts and an 18.2 average. Cory Grant averaged 22.4 yards per kickoff return. Both are gone.
- Turnovers projection: Auburn's turnover situation is pretty extreme. First, we don't expect them to match last year's 22 interceptions, and although Jeremy Johnson has a good track record so far he might surpass Nick Marshall's 7 from last year if he throws the ball more than Marshall. This is somewhat offset by the fact that Auburn had the nation's worst luck on fumble recoveries last year. Their opponents coughed up the ball 4 more times than they did, but they ended up with a -8 fumble margin. That should even out this year. Overall, it's roughly a wash.
Coaching Hot Seat Ranking: #72 (MILD)
Gus Malzahn almost took Auburn to the top in his first year, improving the team from 3-9 to 12-2. But in doing so he created an unrealistic expectation and 8-5 doesn't look good in comparison, especially when the team started 5-0 and finished 3-5 last year. Fans recall that Gene Chizik fell from 14-0 to 8-5...then to 3-9 and was fired. Fortunes can change quickly at Auburn, but right now Malzahn is in no trouble—as long as he doesn't go 3-9 this year.
Recruiting 2015 Recruiting Rank: #1 2014 Recruiting Rank: #6
Auburn's recruiting continues to be among the best in the nation and this year their class gets our #1 ranking...by a nose. Malzahn brough in nearly 30 recruits including 5-star defensive lineman Byron Cowart from Seffner, FL. Also, RB Jovon Robinson finally makes it to Auburn after failing to qualify in 2012, 2013, and 2014, spending a year off and two years in junior college. The class has an amazing 20 consensus 4-star recruits.
2014 Recap
Auburn was the best team in the country after five games, no question about it. Then they dropped to a lower level and stayed there the rest of the season, losing 5 of their last 8 games. The 45-21 win over Arkansas didn't look impressive at the time but it was. The Tigers crushed San Jose State 59-13, got a tough road win at Kansas State (20-14), blasted an underrated Louisiana Tech 45-17, and then absolutely demolished LSU 41-7. But everything went wrong after the 38-23 loss to Mississippi State. It seems that with Auburn's dream to get back to the championship game in question, they lost confidence. In 2013 every break went their way, from miracle catches to insane field goal returns, and their first loss brought them back to reality. In the aftermath they beat South Carolina, barely, and managed to hold on—literally, in the case of the goal-line tackle—for their last big win at Ole Miss, 35-31. But after that they lost to Texas A&M 41-38—ending the national title dream for sure—which led to Georgia blasting them 34-7. They gave it a good try against Alabama but lost 55-44, and fell in overtime to Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl.
Last year's prediction: We don't consider our ranking of Auburn at #6 to be too far off; it's pretty much the average of where they were for the first half of the season and where they ended up. It's also where everyone ranked them (either #5 or #6). We projected a 9-3 finish for the Tigers, specifying losses only to Georgia and Alabama.
2015 Outlook
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Auburn 2015 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | N | Louisville | 82% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Jacksonville State | 96% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 31% | L | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 56% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | San Jose State | 97% | W | |||
| 10/15 | Thu | @ | *Kentucky | 59% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas | 35% | L | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi | 46% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | @ | *Texas A&M | 44% | L | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia | 31% | L | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | Idaho | 100% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | vs. | *Alabama | 41% | L | |||
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Straight up: 6-6 Cume: 7-5 Bowl eligible: 88%
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Auburn kicks off against Louisville in Atlanta and we favor the Tigers over the Cards on a neutral field. Note that Auburn's other three non-conference games are gimmes and rather severe ones: Jacksonville State of the FCS in game 2, San José State (beat them 59-13 last year) in October, and Idaho in November.
But their other eight games are against SEC foes, with six of those from the deadly SEC West, and one of their East opponents is Georgia. That game, along with LSU on the road, are their toughest hurdles, but there are plenty more: Arkansas in Fayetteville, Alabama at home, and Texas A&M in College Station. Mississippi at home is more of a tossup situation but it's still a hurdle.
Some of the games we favor them in aren't too friendly, either. Mississippi State at home and Kentucky on the road are probably games they should win, but they won't be easy.
In some ways the season is shaping up to look a lot like last season. The first six games are a lot easier than the last six, and the Tigers could go 5-1 followed by 1-5 without it being much of a shock.
Last season Auburn had very little luck down the stretch. In 2014 they had all the luck in the world. This year things will probably even out and we'll see the Tigers as they really are. Unfortunately in the SEC West that might not be a very good result!
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