SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128
| Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC #6; West #4) |
 #12 |
2014 Results |
AP #33 USA #32 | Strength:#11 Success:#29 Overall:#13 |
| Record: 7-6 | Bowl: Beat Texas 31-7 (Texas Bowl) |
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| 2015 Outlook |
Picks: AP #18 | USA #20 | Lindy's #27 | Athlon #16 | Steele #18 | ESPN #10 |
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| Record: 8-4 | Bowl odds: 95% Playoff odds: 1% | ||
Last year Arkansas finished #11 in Strength despite a 7-6 record. In other words, even though we rank them higher than almost anyone, we're really only projecting them to be about as good as they were last year—but with a little more success in the W column.
| Offense 8 ret. starters |
2014 Scoring Offense: #44 (raw) #27 (adjusted for opposition) |
| 2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #21 (adjusted) |
Before the running game lost Johnathan Williams, we really had the Razorback offense due for a jump. We still see it improving with better passing.
| Passing Game |
2014 Passing Rank: #102 (raw) #77 (adjusted) | 2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #15 |
| 2015 Projected Passing Rank: #50 (adjusted) |
2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #15 |
Brandon Allen (2,285 yards, 20 TDs, 5 interceptions) has made the Arkansas QB position important again, something that was lost in Brett Bielema's first year. With top receiver Keon Hatcher (558 yards) and tight end Hunter Henry (513) back, it could be even more important to their success in 2015. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos has talked about adding more screen passes to the mix. Two years ago Arkansas ranked #118 in passing yards; this season we think they'll be above average (adjusted for opposition, of course).
| Rushing | 2014 Rushing Rank: #27 (raw) #26 (adjusted) | 2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #53 (adj.) |
Just as Bret Bielema was building a running game juggernaut, one of the twin pillars came crashing down. Leading rusher Johnathan Williams (1,190 yards, 12 TDs) was injured and required foot surgery that will keep him out this year. They still have Alex Collins (1,100 yards, 12 TDs) who will bear more of the load, but some of the backfield's rushing total will be converted to short pass situations. So while we show a decline, some of that is simply transfer to the passing game. Some of it, too, is due to Williams' loss. The offensive line should be in good shape, with center Mitch Smothers, Sebastian Tretola, Dan Skipper, and Denver Kirkland back. Could the offense actually be balanced this year? It could be, unless the coaches call off the extra passing plays. In any case, look for Collins to have an excellent year 'Hogging' all the carries.
| 2014 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #2 Pass Defense per-game: #17 Per-attempt: #28 | ||
| Defense 6 ret. starters |
'14 Scoring Defense: #8 (raw) #6 (adjusted) | '14 sacks: #85 | '14 picks: #61 |
| '15 Projected Scoring Defense: #6 (adjusted) |
'15 sacks: #96 | '15 picks: #51 | |
The unsung hero of last year's team was the defense, which locked down the run and ranked in the top ten in scoring defense. This year's unit should be just as good, too. Two of the front four are gone including Trey Flowers (6 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker top tackler Martrell Spaight (128 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss) is gone while Brooks Ellis is back. The secondary loses Alan Turner but Jared Collins (13 pass breakups) is back. The defense made a huge leap last year and they should remain solid. We also think OC Enos might slow the offense down a bit, which helps the defense.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Kicker Adam McFain (7 of 10 FG) is back while punter Sam Irwin-Hill (40.1 ave) moves on.
- Return Game: DJ Dean led the punt fielding unit with an 11.0 average, while Korliss Marshall, who departs, had a 30.1 average and one touchdown on kickoff duty.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see much change here.
Coaching Hot Seat Ranking: #54 (MILD)
Bret Bielema must have been a hard pill to swallow for some Arkansas fans, given his run-based, slower-paced philosophies. A 3-9 first season didn't help, but last year's 7-6 turnaround has to have pleased knowledgeable fans, who saw how tough their schedule was and how much they had really improved. He has to follow through, of course. Bielema managed to hire away Central Michigan head coach Dan Enos to be offensive coordinator, and his previous hire at defensive coordinator (Robb Smith) really paid dividends last year.
Recruiting 2015 Recruiting Rank: #17 2014 Recruiting Rank: #31
This year's class is up to par in the SEC, which is to say, firmly in the top 25 nationally. It's another good argument for Bielema's continued success here.
2014 Recap
Arkansas was a very good team stuck in a great conference, and an insane division of that conference. The Razorbacks played 7 games against year-end top 25 teams, 5 of them in the SEC West and two from the East. Not only did they beat two top 25 teams, they shut them out by a combined 47-0. That's when people finally started considering the Razorbacks a good team, but there were signs all year long. Maybe not with the 45-21 loss to Auburn, and 73-7 over Nicholls State isn't going to impress. But the 21 point Texas Tech win and especially, beating Northern Illinois 52-14 were impressive. The overtime loss to Texas A&M and the 1-point loss to Alabama showed they could compete with anyone, and they made Georgia and Mississippi State (17-10) work for their wins, too. At 4-5 they were one of the best teams in the country but no one knew it; they had 5 losses to top ten teams! But Bret Bielema still didn't have a conference win. Finally with the 17-0 LSU and 30-0 Mississippi wins they got over the hump, but couldn't sustain it on the road against Missouri. They came back to life against Texas, blasting the Longhorns 31-7 in the Texas Bowl, the best 7-6 team we've seen in a long time.
Last year's prediction: We projected a big year of improvement for the Razorbacks, from #74 all the way up to #51, and a 5-7 season. They blew past the first projection, ending up at #11, but the 2nd one was harder to top. They did make it to 6-6, which was actually 3 games more than we designated on the game-by-game chart. We gave them the obvious ones—Nicholls, Northern Illinois, and UAB—but not Texas Tech, and certainly not LSU and Ole Miss.
2015 Outlook
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Arkansas 2015 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | UTEP | 99% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Toledo | 90% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Texas Tech | 85% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | N | *Texas A&M | 59% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 33% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 31% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 65% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | Tennessee-Martin | 100% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi | 36% | L | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | @ | *LSU | 35% | L | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 63% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 78% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 95%
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Arkansas starts with three home games that only get a bit harder going from UTEP to Toledo to Texas Tech. The neutral field game vs. Texas A&M is going to be a lot tougher than any of those, but we favor the Razorbacks.
Then they face Tennessee and Alabama both on the road; if they win either one then they're ahead of the curve.
The Hogs should recover to beat Auburn at home; again, not easy but we think that's a win this year, and we pretty much know Tennessee-Martin is a win.
Then it's another road stand, this time against the two teams they embarrassed last year by a combined 47-0. First it's Mississippi (30-0), then LSU (17-0). Both teams will want revenge, and we assume they will have figured out how to score on the Razorbacks. Can they win one or both of them this year? Maybe, but we make them the dog in both.
The season closes with Mississippi State and Missouri, two teams that beat Arkansas last season. We think these outcomes could turn around, too.
That leaves the 'Hogs 8-4 on the year, with a lot of results flip-flopping from last year's outcomes. To win all four of the games we think they'll lose? That would take a lot. And if they somehow did it, they'd have to face the East champ in the SEC title game. This makes us very skeptical of their Playoff chances, just like pretty much every team trapped in the SEC West.
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