Here is our inaugural cut at a formula-based "Hot Seat" rankings for FBS head coaches. We use a coach's last 3-years, both in total wins compared with the program's 30-year average, and winning trend from the previous years, with the most recent year counting more (and the 2nd half of the most recent season counting most of all).
Like any formula-based system, there will be some (or many) unreasonable results, and there are several coaches clearly ranked too "high" (or hot) or too low (or too safe). Remember that intangibles unrelated to winnning and losing are not considered (such as whether people like the coach) and salary (and associated buyout issues) are not integrated in this pass.
We will refer to these rankings and discuss them during our 2015 Pre-season Preview.
| Rank | Team | Coach | Years coached |
Program Ave Wins |
Wins Yr-3 |
Wins Yr-2 |
Wins Yr-1 |
Rating |
| 1 | Syracuse | Scott Shafer | 2 | 7.03 | 8 | 7 | 3 | -31.27 |
| 2 | Iowa St | Paul Rhodes | 3+ | 4.40 | 6 | 3 | 2 | -28.60 |
| 3 | Miami FL | Al Golden | 3+ | 9.27 | 7 | 9 | 6 | -28.40 |
| 4 | Hawai`i | Norm Chow | 3+ | 6.60 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -28.40 |
| 5 | Virginia | Mike London | 3+ | 6.88 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -27.95 |
| 6 | Colorado | Mike MacIntyre | 2 | 6.72 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -27.73 |
| 7 | San José St | Ron Caragher | 2 | 4.95 | 11 | 6 | 3 | -23.60 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | Todd Monken | 2 | 7.15 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -22.20 |
| 9 | Washington St | Mike Leach | 3+ | 5.28 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -21.55 |
| 10 | Purdue | Darrell Hazel | 2 | 5.32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -21.53 |
| 11 | South Florida | Willie Taggart | 2 | 7.36 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -18.91 |
| 12 | Texas Tech | Kliff Kingsbury | 2 | 6.77 | 8 | 8 | 4 | -18.13 |
| 13 | Idaho | Paul Petrino | 2 | 4.13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -16.00 |
| 14 | West Virginia | Dana Holgorsen | 3+ | 7.80 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -14.20 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | Frank Beamer | 3+ | 8.35 | 7 | 8 | 7 | -14.15 |
| 16 | Kent St | Paul Haynes | 2 | 2.98 | 11 | 4 | 2 | -13.87 |
| 17 | Connecticut | Bobby Diaco | 1 | 6.25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -10.50 |
| 18 | Brigham Young | Bronco Mendenhall | 3+ | 8.80 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -8.20 |
| 19 | Fresno St | Tim DeRuyter | 3+ | 7.78 | 9 | 11 | 6 | -6.05 |
| 20 | Iowa | Kirk Ferentz | 3+ | 7.50 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -5.50 |
| 21 | New Mexico | Bob Davie | 3+ | 4.57 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5.10 |
| 22 | Tulane | Curtis Johnson | 3+ | 3.77 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -4.90 |
| 23 | Florida Atlantic | Charlie Partridge | 1 | 5.13 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4.75 |
| 24 | Indiana | Kevin Wilson | 3+ | 4.45 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -4.05 |
| 25 | Oklahoma | Bob Stoops | 3+ | 8.97 | 10 | 11 | 8 | -3.70 |
| 26 | North Carolina | Larry Fedora | 3+ | 6.25 | 8 | 7 | 6 | -2.25 |
| 27 | California | Sonny Dykes | 2 | 5.85 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1.80 |
| 28 | Vanderbilt | Derek Mason | 1 | 3.45 | 9 | 9 | 3 | -1.70 |
| 29 | Louisiana-Monroe | Todd Berry | 3+ | 3.94 | 8 | 6 | 4 | -1.50 |
| 30 | Texas | Charlie Strong | 1 | 8.48 | 9 | 8 | 6 | -0.90 |
| 31 | LSU | Les Miles | 3+ | 7.98 | 10 | 10 | 8 | -0.85 |
| 32 | New Mexico St | Doug Martin | 2 | 3.07 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -0.53 |
| 33 | Miami OH | Chuck Martin | 1 | 6.03 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -0.20 |
| 34 | Georgia St | Trent Miles | 2 | na | na | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| 35 | Illinois | Tim Beckman | 3+ | 5.48 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.65 |
| 36 | Northwestern | Pat Fitzgerald | 3+ | 4.58 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0.75 |
| 37 | Akron | Terry Bowden | 3+ | 4.75 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1.25 |
| 38 | Tennessee | Butch Jones | 2 | 8.68 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1.53 |
| 39 | Wake Forest | Dave Clawson | 1 | 4.87 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2.80 |
| 40 | Oklahoma St | Mike Gundy | 3+ | 6.45 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 2.95 |
| 41 | North Texas | Dan McCarney | 3+ | 3.88 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 3.06 |
| 42 | Ball St | Pete Lembo | 3+ | 5.30 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3.30 |
| 43 | Florida Int'l | Ron Turner | 2 | 4.00 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5.00 |
| 44 | Wyoming | Craig Bohl | 1 | 5.95 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5.30 |
| 45 | Eastern Michigan | Chris Creighton | 1 | 3.67 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6.00 |
| 46 | Kentucky | Mark Stoops | 2 | 4.92 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6.67 |
| 47 | Texas A&M | Kevin Sumlin | 3+ | 7.82 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7.65 |
| 48 | MTSU | Rick Stockstill | 3+ | 5.31 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8.23 |
| 49 | Notre Dame | Brian Kelly | 3+ | 7.78 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 9.95 |
| 50 | UNC-Charlotte | Brad Lambert | 2 | na | na | na | na | 10.00 |
| 51 | Nevada | Brian Polian | 2 | 6.70 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 10.40 |
| 52 | Ohio U. | Frank Solich | 3+ | 4.27 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 10.60 |
| 53 | Penn State | James Franklin | 1 | 8.60 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 11.40 |
| 54 | Arkansas | Bret Bielema | 2 | 7.30 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12.60 |
| 55 | Utah | Kyle Whittingham | 3+ | 7.22 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13.05 |
| 56 | UTSA | Larry Coker | 3+ | 3.00 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14.00 |
| 57 | Bowling Green | Dino Babers | 1 | 6.38 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 14.70 |
| 58 | Maryland | Randy Edsall | 3+ | 5.75 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15.25 |
| 59 | San Diego St | Rocky Long | 3+ | 5.37 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 15.70 |
| 60 | Toledo | Matt Campbell | 3+ | 7.15 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 17.65 |
| 61 | Army | Jeff Monken | 1 | 4.50 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 18.00 |
| 62 | South Carolina | Steve Spurrier | 3+ | 6.07 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 18.40 |
| 63 | Air Force | Troy Calhoun | 3+ | 7.62 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 20.45 |
| 64 | Boston College | Steve Addazio | 2 | 6.88 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 20.93 |
| 65 | Washington | Chris Peterson | 1 | 7.05 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 21.70 |
| 66 | North Carolina St | Dave Doeren | 2 | 6.38 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21.93 |
| 67 | Georgia | Mark Richt | 3+ | 8.52 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 22.35 |
| 68 | Southern Cal | Steve Sarkisian | 1 | 8.40 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 22.60 |
| 69 | Kansas St | Bill Snyder | 3+ | 6.43 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 24.10 |
| 70 | East Carolina | Ruffin McNeill | 3+ | 5.75 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 24.25 |
| 71 | Rutgers | Kyle Flood | 3+ | 4.88 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 25.05 |
| 72 | Auburn | Gus Malzahn | 2 | 8.68 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 25.53 |
| 73 | Massachusetts | Mark Whipple | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 27.00 |
| 74 | Temple | Matt Rhule | 2 | 3.37 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 27.07 |
| 75 | Louisville | Bobby Petrino | 1 | 6.30 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 27.20 |
| 76 | Western Michigan | PJ Fleck | 2 | 6.12 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 28.07 |
| 77 | South Alabama | Joey Jones | 3+ | 3.00 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 29.00 |
| 78 | Mississippi | Hugh Freeze | 3+ | 6.02 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 29.85 |
| 79 | Minnesota | Jerry Kill | 3+ | 4.80 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 31.80 |
| 80 | Clemson | Dabo Swinney | 3+ | 7.85 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 32.35 |
| 81 | Louisiana Tech | Skip Holtz | 2 | 5.76 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33.91 |
| 82 | UCLA | Jim Mora | 3+ | 7.15 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 34.65 |
| 83 | Arkansas St | Blake Anderson | 1 | 4.00 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35.00 |
| 84 | Navy | Ken Niumatalolo | 3+ | 4.98 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 36.15 |
| 85 | Arizona | Rich Rodriguez | 3+ | 6.35 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 36.85 |
| 86 | Stanford | David Shaw | 3+ | 5.53 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 37.20 |
| 87 | Arizona St | Todd Graham | 3+ | 6.63 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 37.30 |
| 88 | UTEP | Sean Kugler | 2 | 3.93 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 38.53 |
| 89 | Cincinnati | Tommy Tuberville | 2 | 5.55 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 38.60 |
| 90 | Nebraska | Mike Riley | 0 | 9.85 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 41.15 |
| 91 | Wisconsin | Paul Chryst | 0 | 7.18 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 41.82 |
| 92 | Mississippi St | Dan Mullen | 3+ | 5.17 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 42.50 |
| 93 | Texas St | Dennis Franchione | 3+ | 3.00 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 43.00 |
| 94 | Georgia Tech | Paul Johnson | 3+ | 6.83 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 43.50 |
| 95 | Florida | Jim McElwain | 0 | 9.33 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 43.67 |
| 96 | UL-Lafayette | Mark Hudspeth | 3+ | 4.70 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43.70 |
| 97 | Colorado St | Mike Bobo | 0 | 5.75 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 44.25 |
| 98 | Central Florida | George O'Leary | 3+ | 6.00 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 45.00 |
| 99 | Rice | David Bailiff | 3+ | 4.00 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 46.00 |
| 100 | Old Dominion | Bobby Wilder | 3+ | na | na | na | 6 | 46.00 |
| 101 | Michigan | Jim Harbaugh | 0 | 8.85 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 46.15 |
| 102 | Houston | Tom Herman | 0 | 5.48 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 46.52 |
| 103 | Central Mich | John Bonamego | 0 | 5.85 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 47.15 |
| 104 | Pittsburgh | Pat Narduzzi | 0 | 6.03 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 47.97 |
| 105 | Oregon St | Gary Anderson | 0 | 4.68 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 50.32 |
| 106 | Troy | Neal Brown | 0 | 6.55 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 50.45 |
| 107 | W. Kentucky | Jeff Brohm | 1 | 3.60 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 51.40 |
| 108 | Kansas | David Beatty | 0 | 4.92 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 52.08 |
| 109 | TCU | Gary Patterson | 3+ | 6.75 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 52.25 |
| 110 | Buffalo | Lance Leipold | 0 | 2.69 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 52.31 |
| 111 | Tulsa | Phil Montgomery | 0 | 5.68 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 52.32 |
| 112 | UNLV | Tony Sanchez | 0 | 3.75 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 54.25 |
| 113 | SMU | Chad Morris | 0 | 4.54 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 54.46 |
| 114 | Memphis | Justin Fuente | 3+ | 4.40 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 57.40 |
| 115 | Boise St | Bryan Harsin | 1 | 9.88 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 57.75 |
| 116 | Duke | David Cutcliffe | 3+ | 3.27 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 58.60 |
| 117 | Alabama | Nick Saban | 3+ | 8.63 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 59.30 |
| 118 | Utah St | Matt Wells | 2 | 4.05 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 59.60 |
| 119 | Baylor | Art Brlies | 3+ | 5.08 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 62.25 |
| 120 | Michigan St | Mark Dantonio | 3+ | 6.32 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 66.15 |
| 121 | Northern Illinois | Rod Carey | 2 | 5.67 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 66.67 |
| 122 | Marshall | Doc Holliday | 3+ | 7.60 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 68.60 |
| 123 | Missouri | Gary Pinkel | 3+ | 5.45 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 69.95 |
| 124 | Appalachian St | Scott Satterfield | 2 | na | na | na | 7 | 72.00 |
| 125 | Oregon | Mark Helfrich | 2 | 7.47 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 76.27 |
| 126 | Florida St | Jimbo Fisher | 3+ | 9.57 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 85.90 |
| 127 | Ohio State | Urban Meyer | 3+ | 9.25 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 95.75 |
| 128 | Georgia Southern | Willie Fritz | 1 | 1.00 | na | na | 9 | 96.00 |
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