SportsRatings: College Football

2015 Pre-season Rankings: #27 West Virginia Mountaineers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

West Virginia Mountaineers  (Big Twelve #4)

#27	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#28  Success:#42  Overall:#30
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Lost to Texas A&M 45-37 (Liberty)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #42 | USA #45 | Lindy's #35 | Athlon #36 | Steele #29 | ESPN #28
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 95%   Playoff odds: 2%

A weaker offense plus a stronger defense makes for about the same level of play in 2015, but probably with better results.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #34 (raw) #28 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #56 (adjusted)

The loss of two stud receivers hobbles the pass game—or maybe not, since Dan Holgorsen's system seems to thwart the penalties of personnel losses sometimes.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #9 (raw) #8 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #92
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #41 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #91

Clint Trickett (3,285 yards, 18 TDs, 10 interceptions) is gone and Skyler Howard (829 yards, 8 TDs, 0 int) who started the last few games, is back. Though Trickett completed 67% to Howard's 51%, they had similar yards per attempt, and Howard of course threw no interceptions. The case for a big decline in yardage rests with the receiver corps where Kevin White (1,447 yards, 10 TDs) and Mario Alford (945 yards, 11 TDs) are both gone. Jordan Thompson (598 yards) is back along with two others who topped 300 yards. Our system usually shows a big drop when Holgorsen has to replace his stud receivers and he usually just finds more studs.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #45 (raw) #50 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #57 (adj.)

Rushel Shell (788 yards) and Wendell Smallwood (722 yards) are both back for the Mountaineers, though they lose the next two (combined 683). The offensive line looks just as good with three starters back, Marquis Lucas, Tyler Orlosky, and Adam Pankey. We actually show a slight increase in yardage despite the ranking drop, and Skylar Howard will be running the ball more assuming he starts.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #77    Pass Defense  per-game: #9   Per-attempt: #9
Defense 9 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #75 (raw) #35 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #102	'14 picks: #71
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #113	'15 picks: #26

West Virginia's 3-3-5 has two starters back on the D-Line, two at linebacker, and all five in the secondary. Unfortunately the few losses are two of their best players: Shaquille Riddick (7 sacks) up front and Wes Tonkery (8 tackles for loss) in the middle. The pass rush was weak last year and it probably gets weaker without Riddick, but at linebacker top tackler Nick Kwiatkoski (103 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) is back and 2013 starter Jared Barber also returns so things are pretty set there. The secondary was great last year and should be greater still in 2015 as the team returns almost every pass defense (breakups plus interceptions) from last year. Nine of last year's top ten tacklers are back and we rank the defense a top 25 unit.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Josh Lambert attempted an insane 39 field goals last year and made 30 of them. He's back along with punter Nick O'Toole (41.8 average).
• Return Game:  Jordan Thompson averaged just 4.3 yards per punt return and he's back, while Mario Alford (28.6 on kickoffs with 2 touchdown returns) is not.
• Turnovers projection:  The Mountaineers had insanely bad luck with fumbles last year, coughing it up 15 more times than their opponents and ending up with a ridiculous -17 margin. Let's look at that again: they fumbled 28 times and lost it 19 of those (68%) while their opponents fumbled 13 times and lost it just twice (15%). This is actually good news for West Virginia, assuming there's nothing systematic causing this (there rarely is, as fumbling is very random and recovering fumbles is almost 100% random). The problem should correct itself (most of it, anyway) and it boosts the team going forward, since last year's team was unfairly downgraded based on bad luck.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #14 (HOT)
Following 4-8 with 7-6 probably took Dana Holgorsen off the hot seat but our formula still puts him there. Mostly because West Virginia expects nearly 8 wins per year so he's underperformed for three straight, and dropping 4 of 5 at the end of last year didn't help. He's not really there but another losing season would put him right back.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #43          2014 Recruiting Rank: #57
This year's class is a step up and actually ranks very well in the Big Twelve where only Texas and Oklahoma recruited well this year.

2014 Recap
West Virginia played well in the opener in which they gave Alabama a scare, losing 33-23. After that they beat Towson, struggled to beat Maryland, lost to Oklahoma, beat Kansas, and edged Texas Tech. The Mountaineers kicked off the 2nd half of the season with their three best performances: the major upset of Baylor (41-27), thrashing Oklahoma State 34-10, and nearly adding TCU to the upset list (30-31). Unfortunately they fell to Texas and Kansas State before recovering with a win at Iowa State. The loss to Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl was their 4th in 5 games to end the season 7-6.

Last year's prediction: West Virginia was down in 2013 and we thought they'd stay down in 2014, at least in terms of record. We improved their ranking from #68 in 2013 to a pre-season #57 last year but still projected a repeat at 4-8. We weren't alone as only Lindy's ranked them higher, surprisingly (Phil Steele usually predicts rebounds for teams that falter one year). On the game-by-game chart we only favored WVa in two games! (Towson and Kansas) Needless to say we missed the boat, giving the Mountaineers just a 19% chance to make a bowl game.

2015 Outlook

West Virginia 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	88%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Liberty	98%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Maryland	85%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	20%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	68%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Baylor	13%	L
10/29	Thu	@	*TCU	11%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	70%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Texas	69%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Kansas	98%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	87%	W
12/5	Sat	@	*Kansas State	57%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

The three opening games at home should be three easy wins for the Mountaineers before heading to Oklahoma where we don't foresee good results. Back at home they should beat Oklahoma State, before again going on the road against fearsome opposition—Baylor and TCU—probably putting their record at 4-3.

But that might be the end of the losses for the season. Texas and Texas Tech are home games, and with Kansas the venue shouldn't matter (nor for Iowa State, but that's at home anyway). The final game is Kansas State on the road, and that one probably determines whether the cumulative result of 8-4  or the game-by-game of 9-3 is matched.

The K-State is by far the "closest" game on the slate (7% deviation from 50%, the next being 18% with Oklahoma State at 68%), so based on our rankings the outcomes are pretty clear. This is reflected in the top chart which overwhelmingly forecasts either 8, 7, or 9 wins in that order of likelihood. Those three results encompass over 75% of the total probability.

So if we're right, look for a regular season that matches or exceed's last year's win total, almost certainly leads to a bowl game, and takes Dana Holgorsen off the hot seat by whatever formula you come up with.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #28 Florida Gators

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Florida Gators  (SEC #10; East #3)

#28	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#22  Success:#34  Overall:#27
		Record: 7-5	Bowl: Beat East Carolina 28-20 (Birmingham)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #36 | USA #48 | Lindy's #38 | Athlon #26 | Steele #40 | ESPN #23
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 76%   Playoff odds: <1%

Growing pains on offense and a still-solid defense make for a Gator team that isn't a shoo-in for the post-season, given that they play an SEC schedule plus Florida State as always.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #65 (raw) #48 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #74 (adjusted)

Jim McElwain's offense will emphasize the pass a lot more, but without a proven quarterback and a very questionable offensive line the Gators will probably have to wait until year 2 before things improve.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #106 (raw) #104 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #24
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #86 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #60

Neither Jeff Driskel (1,140 yards, 9 TDs, 10 int) nor Treon Harris (1,019 yards, 9 TDs, 4 int) played the way a Florida quarterback is supposed to. They combined to complete 52%, for one thing. Harris at least had a reasonable ypa (9.2 to Driskel's 5.4) and ran the ball well. Driskel transferred to Louisiana Tech and while Harris is the starter he will share time with freshman Will Grier. Top receiver Demarcus Robinson (810 yards) is back which is good news, and overall 4 of the top 6 return and TE Jake McGee (395 at Virginia '13) should help. The offensive line, however, is depleted and protection is bound to be an issue this year. McElwain's system should have a lot more passing, which means more sacks allowed but also should get the passing game out of the gutter, despite the odds.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #43 (raw) #29 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #94 (adj.)

Top rusher Matt Jones (817 yards) departs but #2 Kelvin Taylor (565) is back. They lose #4 Adam Lane (181, transfer) and #5, QB Jeff Driskel (180, transfer), and #3 Treon Harris (332) won't see the field as much unless he wins the starting job. The offensive line is another issue: four players were drafted by the NFL including first-round draft choice DJ Humphries. Trip Thurman is the only starter back, though they do bring in Mason Halter who started for Fordham last year. With the losses at running back, the weaker O-Line, and a shift to a more pass-based system, the running game could suffer a lot this year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #13    Pass Defense  per-game: #32   Per-attempt: #7
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #14 (raw) #8 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #35	'14 picks: #13
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #7 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #37	'15 picks: #1

The defensive line loses Dante Fowler (8.5 sacks) but two starters are back on the 4-man front and reserve Alex McAlister (6 sacks) will help the pass rush remain decent. Antonio Morrison (101 tackles) is back at linebacker and four starters return in the secondary including Brian Poole (10 pass breakups). The Gators had 16 interceptions last year and 15 are from returning players; add the huge amount of pass breakups and we expect Florida to surpass last year's totals and top the nation in picks. The defense as a whole looks about the same: still top ten in the nation.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Kyle Christy (44.2 average) is gone, as is kicker Francisco Velez (12 of 14 field goals). Austin Hardin, who made 7 of 10, is back, and 2013 punter Johnny Townshend (42.0 average) is back, too.
• Return Game:  Return man Andre Debose (14.0 average on punts, 24.7 on kickoffs) is gone; he had a touchdown return on a punt last year. .
• Turnovers projection:  As noted in defense, we expect Florida to up their interception total on defense.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #95 (COOL)
Jim McElwain is in a first-year honeymoon period and fans will be glad to see anyone but Will Muschamp on the sidelines. But expectations are always high at Florida and they've basically despised 2 of their last 3 coaches. So McElwain starts in the Cool column, not quite Cold.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #25          2014 Recruiting Rank: #14
This isn't bad at all for a transition year, though for the SEC it's just borderline acceptable to be borderline top 25 in recruiting. It will be interesting to see how much things jump next year. Early indications are that 2016's class will rival 2014's. This year the Gators nabbed two consensus 5-star recruits, offensive lineman Martez Ivey and defensive end CeCe Jefferson. Given the O-Line's issues Ivey will probably start (he suffered a knee injury recently though), and Jefferson will see a lot of time too.

2014 Recap
Will Muschamp's first hit came from the weather, which cancelled a certain win over Idaho and almost prevented the Gators from making a bowl game. Florida took it out on Eastern Michigan in a 65-0 win, but next week against Kentucky was much harder and they needed triple overtime to win 36-30. Alabama showed the Gators they were still boss, 42-21, but Florida managed to edge Tennessee as Treon Harris stepped in, but he was held out of the LSU game and Jeff Driskel had 4 turnovers and Florida lost on a last-second field goal. Then Missouri scored on 4 returns—a punt, a kickoff, a fumble, and an interception—en route to a 42-13 rout that was a further nail in Muschamp's coaching coffin. Somehow, Florida turned it around for one game and crushed Georgia 38-20 behind 418 rushing yards. But two games later a blocked punt allowed South Carolina to force overtime and win; it was the Gators' 3rd loss in a row at The Swamp and Will Muschamp was fired afterwards, but coached the last two games. Beating Eastern Kentucky guaranteed the team a bowl game, and they gave it a good shot against Florida State before narrowly losing like everyone else. Muschamp didn't coach the bowl win over East Carolina.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Florida #21 and they finished #22 in Strength, but somehow it doesn't seem like we got it right. We projected a jump from 4-8 to 8-4, and if it weren't for the cancelled Idaho game the Gators would have been 7-5 before their bowl. They didn't really play like a top 25 team at times though—we missed the losses to LSU (51% odds) and Missouri on the game-by-game chart, as well as South Carolina (52% odds). We also missed the Georgia win.

2015 Outlook

Florida 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	96%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	89%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Kentucky	46%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	27%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	33%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Missouri	42%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*LSU	18%	L
10/31	Sat	N	*Georgia	15%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	85%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*South Carolina	51%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	96%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Florida State	53%	W
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 76%

Jim McElwain's first season is shaping up to be a disappointment, at least at the 2/3 mark. There, Florida could be 2-6 needing to win the last four games to make the post-season.

The first two games are easy wins, but things change fast. Kentucky is a tossup on the road, and considering it took 3 overtimes to win at home last year that seems reasonable. Tennessee and Mississippi look like losses and Missouri on the road is another close game in which we favor the opponent.

Then LSU and Georgia both away from home are the Gators' toughest challenges and could be their 5th and 6th losses in a row potentially. McElwain's honeymoon is officially over at this point if that happens.

In the last four games there are two clear wins (Vanderbilt and Florida Atlantic) and two tossup games (South Carolina and Florida State). They might need to win all four to go 6-6, but it will be tough to beat both of the latter teams.

You can see the potential for a very bad season: Starting 2-6 and winning only 2 of the last four makes for a repeat of 2013's dismal 4-8 record, and McElwain would be on the hot seat right away given the fan base. Assuming they win half of the tossups that gets them to 6-6, while 8-4 is looking like a best-case scenario for the team. The cumulative estimate puts the expected number of wins at just about 6.5, with a 3 in 4 chance of making a bowl game. But the Gators need some upsets—minor or major—in that 6 game stretch to give themselves some breathing room in November.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #29 Missouri Tigers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Missouri Tigers  (SEC #11; East #4)

#29	2014 Results	AP #14 USA #11	Strength:#21  Success:#18  Overall:#23
		Record: 11-3	Bowl: Beat Minnesota 33-17 (Citrus)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #24 | USA #23 | Lindy's #25 | Athlon #27 | Steele #31 | ESPN #26
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 85%   Playoff odds: <1%

Missouri is gunning for a 3rd straight SEC title game appearance and a 3rd straight 10+ win season. We don't think they'll get either, but we were wrong about both last year.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #71 (raw) #45 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #51 (adjusted)

The offense loses a lot of receivers and a key running back but shouldn't slip too much.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #101 (raw) #86 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #39
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #104 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #34

Last year we bucked the trend of hype for Maty Mauk, projecting a big drop-off in passing production; we noted his 51% completion rate and loss of receivers and basically forecast a sophomore slump for the team. Mauk (2,648 yards, 25 TDs, 13 int) more than doubled his own numbers but team production fell from 3,500 yards and Mauk still only completed 53%. This year doesn't look any better as Missouri's receiver corps is decimated worse than last year; gone are #1 Bud Sasser (1,003 yards, 12 TDs) and #2 Jimmie Hunt (698 yards, 7 TDs), and #s 3 and 4 as well. Tight end Sean Culkin (174 yards), the #5 receiver, is the only one back who topped 100 yards. We were a little too harsh in our projection last year (#96) so maybe they can match last year's numbers, and they do have experience at backup with Corbin Berkstresser (1,059 yards in '12).

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #55 (raw) #36 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #34 (adj.)

Mizzou had a great 1-2 punch with Russell Hansbrough (1,084 yards, 10 TDs) and Marcus Murphy (924 yards). The latter is gone but Hansbrough should have another fine year running behind a stronger offensive line. Seniors Evan Boehm, Connor McGovern, Taylor Chappell, and Brad McNulty are all back; the first two started every game and the latter two the majority. We see the ground game being just as good despite losing a key RB.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #10    Pass Defense  per-game: #39   Per-attempt: #10
Defense 5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #22 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #14	'14 picks: #78
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #17 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #65	'15 picks: #62

The obvious concern for Missouri this year is the defensive line where all four starters are gone. They lose sack leaders Markus Golden (10 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) and Shane Ray (14.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss), and Harold Brantley (5 sacks) was involved in a car crash and won't play this year. This takes Missouri's vaunted pass rush down to mediocre and the top ten rush defense is bound to suffer, too. At linebacker, however, two starters are back and they are the team's top tacklers, Kentrell Brothers (122 tackles) and Michael Scherer (114). And the secondary brings back three starters including Aarion Penton (10 pass breakups). With the weakness up front we don't see Mizzou fielding a top ten scoring defense but they could remain in the top 25.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Andrew Baggett (18 of 25 field goals) is back but punter Christian Brinser (41.1 average) departs.
• Return Game:  All-purpose talent Marcus Murphy was the team's #4 receiver and #2 rusher last year, and he also excelled at kick returns, averaging 10.4 yards on punts and 29.6 on kickoffs, with 3 total touchdowns. For all his other contributions, it might be here that he's missed most.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see a big change in any area but the cumulative result should be good for the Tigers.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #123 (COLD)
A few years ago following a 5-7 season some questioned whether Missouri belonged in the SEC and whether Gary Pinkel had been here long enough. After 12-2 and 11-3 seasons, no one's asking those questions anymore.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #28          2014 Recruiting Rank: #17
Last year's recruiting class was up to par for the SEC—i.e., firmly in the top 25. This year's group is questionable on that front, but still not bad at all nationally. Their top recruit is consensus 5-star defensive lineman Terry Beckner from East St. Louis. He's coming in at the right time for the Mizzou defense's depleted D-Line.

2014 Recap
Missouri started off with three pretty good wins, but then came a bad up-and-down stretch in which they lost to Indiana 31-27, narrowly edge South Carolina 21-20, and got crushed 34-0 by Georgia. The Tigers didn't dwell on the shutout loss; they simply decapitated Florida, 42-13 at the swamp, scoring every way other than with their offense: on a kickoff, a punt, a fumble, and an interception (they got a fifth touchdown after a fumble recovery in the red zone). The Tigers slipped back to mediocre in wins over Vandy and Kentucky, but they beat the Aggies, the Vols, and the Razorbacks to earn a shot at the Tide. That shot failed, 42-13, but at least they got it. In the Citrus Bowl they dispatched Minnesota to finish 11-3.

Last year's prediction: We rated Missouri just a bit low at #27 and projected an 8-4 record which the Tigers surpassed by two wins. We didn't quite predict the upset loss to Indiana (Mizzou 52% to win) and we didn't give them the South Carolina, Florida, or Texas A&M wins either.

2015 Outlook

Missouri 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	SE Missouri State	100%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Arkansas State	71%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	97%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Kentucky	45%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	67%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Florida	58%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Georgia	10%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	72%	W
11/5	Thu	vs.	*Mississippi State	42%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	Brigham Young	85%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	27%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Arkansas	22%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 85%

We're predicting a lot of success for Missouri outside of the SEC, and not a whole lot within it. Southeast Missouri State is a game hardly worth playing—and Connecticut probably isn't worth much more. Arkansas State on the road will be a challenge, as will BYU at home later in the season, but the Tigers should win all four.

The SEC season is going to be tough, and as usual for Missouri the wins and losses will be hard to pick. Kentucky might be a tossup game this year on the road, but we favor the Tigers slightly against both South Carolina and Florida at home. The toughest game will be Georgia in Athens, and considering they lost 34-0 at home this year that's not surprising.

Vanderbilt is the last SEC game in which we favor the Tigers; after that, Mississippi State should be closely contested at home, while Tennessee and Arkansas both look like very strong teams this year.

Mizzou's plan for a third straight season of double-digit wins? Beat Kentucky early on the road, then beat Mississippi State at home, for 9 wins. This still won't put them in a 3rd consecutive SEC title game, so they'll have to win their bowl game to go 10-3.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #30 Boise State Broncos

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Boise State Broncos  (Mountain West #1; Mountain #1)

#30	2014 Results	AP #16 USA #16	Strength:#34  Success:#9  Overall:#28
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Beat Arizona 38-30 (Fiesta)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #23 | USA #24 | Lindy's #22 | Athlon #25 | Steele #30 | ESPN #25
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 2%

The question every year concerning Boise State is, is this going to be a great year, or just another boring very good year? Looks like the latter again; although the Broncos have a decent chance to go undefeated, that's more due to their weak schedule than the team looking unstoppable.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #9 (raw) #14 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #14 (adjusted)

Despite losing their starting quarterback and star running back the Boise offense should remain strong due to a very solid offensive line, which will help the new starters find their footing.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #23 (raw) #38 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #65
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #52 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #29

Grant Hedrick (3,696 yards, 23 TDs, 14 int) wasn't the best Bronco quarterback ever but he will still be a tough act to follow, especially his 71% completion percentage. Ryan Finley (161 yards, 2:1) will step in as a sophomore having completed just 44% in limited action. Luckily last year's two top targets are back, Thomas Sperbeck (877 yards) and Shane Williams-Rhodes (585 yards). #3 Jay Ajayi (535) is gone but two others return who had 400+ yards. The best news is that protection should be excellent next year with all five offensive line starters returning. Finley probably can't match Hedrick's production—certainly not his completion rate—but the drop doesn't have to be huge.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #32 (raw) #27 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #33 (adj.)

Jay Ajayi (1,823 yards, 28 TDs) had the best single-season total for a Boise State running back, and that says a lot. His departure, along with QB Grant Hedrick who had 592 yards and 8 touchdowns, leaves a big hole in the backfield. Three other players topped 150 yards: #3 was WR Shane Williams-Rhodes (179 yards) and the top running back was Devan Demas (173), but #5 Jeremy McNichols (159) looks like the starter at tailback—unless grad transfer Kelsey Young (331 yards at Stanford) takes it. All of them will be running behind a very strong offensive line that returns everyone who started a game last year. Four players started full-time: Senior center Marcus Henry and juniors Mario Yakoo, Travis Averill, and Steven Baggett. Again, we can't expect anyone to break the school record this year but production shouldn't fall off too much.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #29    Pass Defense  per-game: #105   Per-attempt: #58
Defense 8 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #67 (raw) #75 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #7	'14 picks: #7
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #48 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #3	'15 picks: #3

Boise's defense allowed a lot of passing yards in 2014 but made big plays—sacks and interceptions—to stall drives and keep scoring under control. We expect the big plays to continue and the defense to get better. The defensive line loses Beau Martin (5.5 sacks) but three starters are back including Kamalei Correa (12 sacks). Both linebackers in the 4-2-5 are back including top tackler Tanner Vallejo (100 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss). The secondary returns three starters including Darian Thompson (7 interceptions) and Donte Deayon (6 interceptions). The Broncos return their top 5 tacklers from last year, plus they get back three significant players from injury including projected starters Tyler Horn on the D-Line and Mercy Maston at nickelback.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Sean Wale (42.0 average) is back while kicker Dan Goodale (16 of 21 FG) departs.
• Return Game:  Jeremy McNichols (20.7 average) will return kicks again, while Donte Deayon (10.2 average, 1 touchdown) was the best of the punt fielders.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see a big change here; Ryan Finley probably won't throw many more picks than Hedrick did (14) and the defense won't get more than last year's 22.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #115 (COLD)
Getting 12 wins in your first season will make your seat very cold very fast. Not that Bryan Harsin had anything to worry about if his first year didn't go well, but following a legend like Chris Petersen can be tough, and Boise fans have high expectations.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #52          2014 Recruiting Rank: #68
Recruiting is better in Harsin's 2nd class than during the transition, as expected. It's not the best in the Mountain West this time around due to San Jose State's fluke class.

2014 Recap
Boise State started the season as they often do: facing a tough Power Conference opponent on the road. This time it was Ole Miss, and they picked the wrong team, as the Rebels were one of the best in the nation this year and beat the Broncos 35-13. They didn't linger on the loss, beating Colorado State, UConn, and ULL before losing against Air Force. Again, they rebounded with a string of wins and after they'd defeated Fresno State for the 2nd time they were 11-2, ranked by the Committee, and Fiesta Bowl-bound. They beat Arizona 38-30 to finish 12-2, but they definitely weren't as strong as the previous Fiesta Bowl winning teams in 2009 and 2006.

Last year's prediction: We put Boise State at #39, and really that's not much lower than they were despite overachieving by beating Arizona at the end. Our 9-3 projection was a bit low, but on the game-by-game chart we picked 10 wins and 2 losses—to Ole Miss and BYU. They beat BYU and were upset by Air Force instead. The Bronco offense was quite a bit better than we expected and the defense not nearly as good, but the two balanced each other out.

2015 Outlook

Boise State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/4	Fri	vs.	Washington	88%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Brigham Young	73%	W
9/18	Fri	vs.	Idaho State	96%	W
9/25	Fri	@	Virginia	69%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	95%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Colorado State	80%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Utah State	76%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	99%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*UNLV	98%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	96%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	95%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*San Jose State	84%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 18%

This year the Broncos are just a bit better and their schedule is a whole lot easier. Gone from the pre-conference season is any whiff of a team like Mississippi, and this year they add an FCS team to the slate (Idaho State). BYU remains—on the road, too—but they shouldn't be that big of a problem. They do play two Power Five teams this year but Washington and Virginia aren't the best the Power Five has to offer. The big question about the matchup with the Huskies is whether Chris Petersen's knowledge of the team will give them any edge. We doubt it.

If Boise State manages to get out of the non-conference schedule unscathed then there's not that much to worry about in the Mountain West. Other than mild threats on the road vs. Colorado State, Utah State, and San Jose State it should be smooth sailing.

In the end Boise is a big favorite in all 12 games and has a great chance to go undefeated. The cumulative chance of losing adds up so our official projection is right on the cusp of 10 and 11 wins, with 11 actually being the most likely outcome (top chart). We even give the Broncos a token small percentage to make the College Football Playoff, though it's hard to see how this schedule would lead to them being considered. Remember that the Boise name carries some cachet these days, and it's possible that Washington or Virginia will have a good year and make a case for the Broncos.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #31 Utah Utes

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Utah Utes  (Pac-12 #8; South #5)

#31	2014 Results	AP #21 USA #20	Strength:#31  Success:#20  Overall:#29
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Beat Colorado State 45-10 (Las Vegas)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #30 | USA #30 | Lindy's #32 | Athlon #31 | Steele #21 | ESPN #36
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 89%   Playoff odds: <1%

Last year we ranked Utah in the top 25 but projected just a 6-6 season. This year they're outside the top 25 but if they defend their home turf well they could be 9-3.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #59 (raw) #49 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #35 (adjusted)

Utah has two decent quarterbacks who refuse to be consistent, so it looks like it's up to Devontae Booker to carry the offense again.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #95 (raw) #95 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #91
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #98 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #87

Travis Wilson (2,170 yards, 18 TDs, 5 int) led the Utes by himself after backup Kendal Thompson (324 yards, 2:2) was hurt and out for the year; before then, there was an intermittent competition going on that still might not be fully resolved. Only two of the top five receivers are back, however, #2 Kenneth Scott (506 yards); #1 was Kaelin Clay (523). Protection was poor (31 sacks allowed in a run-first offense) and probably won't be much better. Though it's Wilson's job to lose, the battle will continue between the senior leaders but the running game is where the offense will improve.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #41 (raw) #32 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #15 (adj.)

Devontae Booker (1,512 yards, 10 TDs) didn't care who was quarterback as they could both hand him the ball adequately. #3 rusher Bubba Poole (211) had 607 yards in 2013 but is playing receiver this year until they figure out they need him as backup RB. The offensive line returns three starters, Siaosi Aiono, Isaac Asiata, and JJ Dielman. The ground game looks stronger and incidentally, both QBs can run; Wilson was #2 with 309 net yards and Thompson #4 with 192.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #45    Pass Defense  per-game: #28   Per-attempt: #59
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #31 (raw) #19 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #1	'14 picks: #67
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #20 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #1	'15 picks: #87

Utah's defensive line loses Nate Orchard who had an amazing 18.5 sacks—the main reason why Utah finished #1 in the nation in sacks. But we think the Utes could repeat at #1 since nearly everyone else who had a sack returns, including defensive line starter Hunter Dimick (10 sacks), D-Line backup Pita Taumoepenu (5.5 sacks), and linebacker Jason Fanaika (5 sacks) who moves to the D-Line this year. At linebacker they return top tackler Jared Norris (116 tackles, 9 tackles for loss), but the secondary loses Eric Rowe (13 pass breakups) and Dominique Hatfield isn't on the team due to legal issues and probably won't be reinstated. Overall the defense should be roughly as good as it was last year, that is, among the top 25 in the nation.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Tom Hackett averaged a fantastic 46.7 yards per punt last year for the Utes and he's back along with Andy Phillips who made 23 of 28 field goal attempts.
• Return Game:  Return man Kaelin Clay is gone, and it's a big loss for Utah; he had 4 touchdown returns, 3 on punts and 1 on a kickoff, and that's hard to replace.
• Turnovers projection:  Not much is different here, except maybe the defense possibly getting fewer interceptions.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #55 (MILD)
Kyle Whittingham probably had himself on at least a warm seat after two 5-7 finishes, but he got back to the center with a 9-4 season. Moving to the Pac-12 was a big step for Utah, which had a 13-0 season under Whittingham.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #45          2014 Recruiting Rank: #61
This year's class ranks better than last year's but it still isn't up to par for the Pac-12, which makes Whittingham's job on the field that much harder.

2014 Recap
Utah played well in 2014 with the occasional, notable exception. Losing to Washington State was one; losing 42-10 to Arizona was another. In all, the Utes could easily have gone 10-2 but were lucky they weren't 3-9. The first three games went well, but the opposition (Idaho State, Fresno State, Michigan) was nothing to crow about. Utah got luck on their side in edging UCLA, Oregon State, and USC to stand 6-1, only to lose in overtime to Arizona State. They lost to Oregon (the Ducks pulled away after a Utah dropped-before-the-goal-line TD catch turned into an Oregon TD) but beat Stanford in double overtime, and beat Colorado to finish 8-4. In the bowl game the "good" Utah showed up and wracked Colorado State 45-10. They finished #20 and #21 in the polls.

Last year's prediction: We were basically alone in putting Utah in the top 25 at #24; they didn't get a single vote in either pre-season poll and the national magazines had the Utes anywhere from #48 to #65. But they ended up ranked both by the AP and coaches. Not that we thought they'd end up there; we projected a 6-6 finish for Utah despite that ranking due to their tough Pac-12 schedule. We got more than half the picks wrong on the game-by-game chart, too.

2015 Outlook

Utah 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	Michigan	63%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Utah State	91%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Fresno State	93%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Oregon	15%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*California	54%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	55%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*USC	20%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	95%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Washington	77%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Arizona	35%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	45%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	79%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 89%

If Utah want to have a great season, they have to defend their home turf. Michigan is a much better team this year—or at least, that's the way it always seems prior to the season. But the Utes should be able to beat them in Salt Lake City. The next two games, Utah State and Fresno State, should be easy wins before they travel to Oregon for what is a very probable loss.

The next two are key games that the Utes could win or lose, or split: California and Arizona State. Both are at home, and that alone should give the Utes a slight edge. Then they travel to USC which is probably another loss.

A few weeks later they host UCLA in what might be their toughest home field challenge of the season, then Colorado comes to town. Apart from the four close home games they should go 5-3. If they lose all the close home games they don't even go to a bowl game. Win them all and they're 9-3. Split them and the cumulative estimate of 7-5 comes true.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #32 Penn State Nittany Lions

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Penn State Nittany Lions  (Big Ten #3; East #3)

#32	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#49  Success:#57  Overall:#48
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Boston College 31-30ot (Pinstripe)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #31 | USA #35 | Lindy's #41 | Athlon #32 | Steele #26 | ESPN #37
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 3%

James Franklin should have the Nittany Lions taking the next step in rebuilding their dynasty.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #115 (raw) #97 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #83 (adjusted)

Prediction: Christian Hackenberg will rebound in his junior year and carry the offense with him.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #63 (raw) #61 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #122
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #37 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #112

Last year while everyone else was hyping him we predicted that Christian Hackenberg would have a sophomore slump and he did. His yardage remained high (2,977 yards) but his ratio went from 20:10 to 12:15 and his completion percentage dropped from 59% to 56%. He had lost a crucial receiver and the O-Line became porous, allowing 44 sacks. This year his top two targets return in DeaSean Hamilton (899 yards) and Geno Lewis (751 yards) and overall, 5 of 7 who topped 100 yards are back. The offensive line returns four starters and at the very least shouldn't give up 40+ sacks. Hackenberg is poised for a pretty good comeback this season.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #120 (raw) #109 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #111 (adj.)

Akeel Lynch (678 yards) returns while #2 Bill Belton (526) departs. The offensive line returns senior Angelo Mangiro, junior Brian Gaia, and sophomores Andrew Nelson and Brendan Mahon. This scenario doesn't look bad but the passing game might get more offensive focus as it improves, leaving the running game much the same.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #5    Pass Defense  per-game: #15   Per-attempt: #14
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #5 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #44	'14 picks: #23
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #10 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #42	'15 picks: #28

Penn State had one of the nation's best defenses last year and it should remain so in 2015. The 4-3 returns two defensive linemen and two linebackers. Up front Anthony Zettel (8 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) is back while Deion Barnes (6 sacks) departs. Top tackler Mike Hull (140 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss) is gone from the linebacking corps, however. The secondary has senior Jordan Lucas back among three starters. We don't foresee a big change in sacks, picks, or opponent scoring.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both Penn State punters averaged 37.3 yards per punt and both are back, while kicker Sam Ficken (24 of 29 field goals) is gone.
• Return Game:  Grant Haley (20.6 on kickoffs) is back but Jesse Della Vale (7.6 on punts) is gone.
• Turnovers projection:  Penn State's -6 fumble margin will probably not happen again this year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #53 (MILD)
Our formula puts James Franklin just outside the Warm quadrant (really, quintile) after a 7-6 finish. It matched the previous season's win total, but over the long haul Penn State expects about 8 1/2 wins per year, and they went on a 3-6 skid at the end. Winning the bowl game helped. Math aside, Franklin is well-respected and will be allowed plenty of time to build the program back up.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #12          2014 Recruiting Rank: #19
Frankin's 2nd class is very good, which is no surprise given his first one, which was excellent for a coaching transition year. Next year might be even better, and all of this means that Franklin could be building another dynasty at Penn State.

2014 Recap
Penn State's season got off to a great start: they beat Central Florida in Ireland en route to a 4-0 start, and got the announcement that they were eligible to be bowl-eligible (that is, the bowl ban was lifted early). Things started to go wrong in late September. Northwestern came to town and won 29-6, then the Lions traveled to Michigan and fell 18-13. Next came Ohio State, and Penn State played their best game of the year by taking the Buckeyes into double overtime before losing 31-24. A close loss to Maryland followed and they were just 4-4. They beat Indiana and Temple to secure a bowl game but lost to Illinois and were trounced by Michigan State. However, being back in a bowl game for the first time in a few years was just enough to get them past Boston College 31-30 in overtime.

Last year's prediction: We didn't project Penn State to get to a bowl game. Part of the reason was we expected them to finish 5-7, with only a 40% chance of making it to 6-6. The main reason was that, at the time of the prediction, the Nittany Lions were banned from the post-season, so we noted that their bowl chances were 0%. We ended up being wrong as the ban was lifted and the team made it to 6-6. Our best prediction was about Christian Hackenberg: "...without [Allen] Robinson they aren't going to be the same. Further, protection could be a big problem as four starters are gone from the offensive line. Hackenberg will be a better QB but still could have a sophomore slump due to the missing persons around him."

2015 Outlook

Penn State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Temple	44%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	98%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	83%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	86%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Army	98%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	90%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Ohio State	3%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Maryland	69%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	84%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Northwestern	66%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	62%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Michigan State	29%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

Penn State kicks off against Temple, one of only three teams that has a very good chance of beating them. The other two are Ohio State and Michigan State. The Buckeyes have a very good chance of beating Penn State; Michigan State is somewhere in between. All three games are on the road.

For everything else—first in a 5-game home stand, and then in a 4-game stretch in October and November—we favor the Lions fairly heavily. Winning 9 or 10 games is not only possible, but seems likely if the team plays consistently.

Penn State's opponents during the home stand are all poor to mediocre, and the Lions should be 5-1 or even 6-0 midway through the season. During the 2nd run, Maryland and Northwestern, will make formidable road opponents and Michigan will be tough even in Happy Valley, so if the 8-4 cumulative estimate comes true there will be at least one loss among those three.

We fully expect Penn State to improve quite a bit on their 6-6 regular season mark, but playing for the Big Ten title probably isn't in the cards with Ohio State and Michigan State in the same division. If James Franklin keeps recruiting the way he is, though, it won't be long.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #33 Kentucky Wildcats

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Kentucky Wildcats  (SEC #12; East #5)

#33	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#48  Success:#75  Overall:#50
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #59 | Athlon #55 | Steele #58 | ESPN #47
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 83%   Playoff odds: <1%

Kentucky is poised to get to a bowl game for the first time since 2010, but they have to win some key games early—and not go 0-6 down the stretch again.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #68 (raw) #39 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #10 (adjusted)

The Kentucky offense returns the key players in the passing and running game plus most of the offensive line. But what should really juice production is a hurry-up scheme that the new coordinator wants to operate at 85 plays per game. Even if they get halfway there it should push the offense firmly into the top 20.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #65 (raw) #54 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #112
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #27 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #96

Patrick Towles (2,718 yards, 14 TDs, 9 int) wasn't good enough in 2014 to make this year's QB competition a no-brainer, but he was good enough to win the job again in 2015. Of the top trio of Wildcat receivers only Ryan Timmons (536 yards) is back, while Javess Blue (525 yards) and Demarco Robinson (501) depart. But five other players return who had 100+ receiving yards, and two more come back from redshirting last year. Protection was a big issue as Kentucky allowed 34 sacks but that should improve along with the offensive line this season. All this—plus a healthy dose of added reps—should mean a middling passing game becomes a strong one, yardage-wise.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #81 (raw) #55 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #23 (adj.)

Five Wildcats rushed for 300 or more yards last year and four of them are back. That alone should help make the running game better in 2015, but in addition the offensive line gets a boost from four returning starters: Jordan Swindle, Jon Toth, Ramsey Meyers, and Zach West are all back. Now we add in the sped-up offense and things really take off, and Stanley "Boom" Williams (486 yards last year) could have a breakout season as a sophomore.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #79    Pass Defense  per-game: #42   Per-attempt: #48
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #88 (raw) #67 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #53	'14 picks: #16
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #81 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #80	'15 picks: #14

Since defensive line starters Bud Dupree (7.5 sacks) and ZaDarius Smith are gone, it's probably a good idea for Kentucky to be switching to a 3-4. Top tackler Josh Forrest (110 tackles) will anchor the linebacking corps, and three senior starters return at secondary including AJ Stamps. What makes us downgrade the defense is the same thing that has the offense looking so good: tempo. With more drives and more plays, Kentucky's opponents are bound to score more points.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both punter Landon Foster (42.6 average) and kicker Austin MacGinnis (21 of 27 field goals) are back.
• Return Game:  #3 receiver Demarco Robinson averaged 7.4 yards per punt return and is gone; leading rusher Boom Williams averaged 26.9 per kickoff return and he is back.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't modify Kentucky much at all due to turnover expectations.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #46 (WARM)
Mark Stoops is on the mild side of "warm" in our Hot Seat rankings, having gone 2-10 in his first year but improved to 5-7 last season. That's good momentum but the Wildcats lost 6 in a row to end the season which leaves a bad taste with fans. Luckily he got a contract extension not long after they started 5-1.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #54          2014 Recruiting Rank: #9
After last season's super, top ten class, Kentucky has a more typical Kentucky class which ranks near the bottom of the SEC.

2014 Recap 
Kentucky roared to a great start in 2014, whipping Tennessee-Martin 59-14 and beating Ohio 20-3. At Florida they pushed the Gators to the limit before losing in three overtimes, 36-30. They beat Vanderbilt, upset South Carolina, and toasted Louisiana-Monroe 48-14. At this point, at 5-1, Mark Stoops had surpassed Kentucky's wins for the last two seasons. But the schedule turned harder and with it the wins dried up. LSU beat them 41-3, then they lost to Mississippi State 45-31, to Missouri 20-10, Georgia 63-31, Tennessee 50-16. Needing a win to become bowl eligible they lost to Louisville 44-40, having dropped six in a row and finshing 5-7. Disappointing, but still better than the 2-10 they had to live with the two prior seasons.

Last year's prediction: We almost nailed this one. We ranked Kentucky a bit low (#65) for how good they turned out to be, but we projected a 5-7 record that came true and we only missed one game on the chart. There, we picked four wins, all within the first six games (the one we missed was South Carolina)—followed by a six-game losing streak that, unfortunately for the Wildcats, came true.

2015 Outlook

Kentucky 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	95%	W
9/12	Sat	@	*South Carolina	45%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Florida	54%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	55%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Eastern Kentucky	98%	W
10/15	Thu	vs.	*Auburn	41%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	23%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	24%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Georgia	8%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	69%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Charlotte	95%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Louisville	75%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 83%

This year we think Kentucky is going bowling for the first time since 2010. The odds are definitely on their side and having eight home games helps a lot, but if they have bad luck or play poorly early on, it might not happen.

Basically the Wildcats need to get at least three wins in their first five games to be in good shape. Those include Louisiana-Lafayette and Eastern Kentucky at home which should be fairly easy. It also includes South Carolina, Florida, and Missouri. We see all of those games as essentially tossups, and the Wildcats only need to come away with one win to keep their bowl hopes strong.

If they go 2-3, however, they have a problem as there are only three more clear wins on the schedule: Vanderbilt, Charlotte, and Louisville, the last three games of the season. Auburn at home can't be counted on, and Mississippi State, Tennessee, and especially Georgia are not good candidates.

That's why going 3-2 or better in the first five games is so important. The cumulative estimate calls for a 7-5 finish, but that's from a pre-season vantage point. After half the season has been played, there's not much leeway if you are just 2-4.

But we're probably preaching to the choir here, given Kentucky's experience last season. When you start 5-1 and still don't make a bowl game, you understand that late-season victories are often hard to come by. Luckily this season there are some potential wins near the end, and the Wildcats ought to get to the post-season.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #35 Michigan Wolverines

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Michigan Wolverines  (Big Ten #4; East #4)

#35	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#53  Success:#73  Overall:#56
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #39 | USA NR | Lindy's #29 | Athlon #34 | Steele #35 | ESPN #33
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 92%   Playoff odds: 1%

Well, here it is—the Jim Harbaugh era at Michigan. Like during the Hoke era, expectations across the board call for an improvement over last season; let's see if he can deliver.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #112 (raw) #88 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #59 (adjusted)

If the offense doesn't get any better this year they might as well just give up.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #112 (raw) #108 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #81
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #100 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #62

Last year's passing game was a disaster as Devin Gardner (1,896 yards, 10 TDs, 15 int) regressed along with the rest of the offense. As he leaves, Jake Rudock (2,436 yards, 16 TDs, 5 int) enters as a grad transfer from Iowa. Though he wasn't exactly dynamic there—he lost the starting job—a good game manager might be needed to get the offense back to square one. We're assuming he beats out Shane Morris, who completed 35% last year with a 0:3 ratio. Top receiver Devin Funchess (733 yards) is gone, but the next three are back including Amara Darboh (473). With four starters back on the offensive line protection should top last year's dismal 26. Rudock is a stop-gap solution at best but he should keep the turnovers down.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #64 (raw) #44 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #28 (adj.)

Five Wolverines topped 200 rushing yards last year and the top three are back led by De'Veon Smith's 519. To be the feature back he'll have to hold off the others, including #2 Derrick Green (471 yards), as well as USC transfer Ty Isaac (236 yards in '13), and a committee approach might be used. The offensive line returns starters Graham Glasgow, Ben Braden, Mason Cole, and Kyle Kalis. With the cream of the running back crop returning and a stronger offensive line, the ground game should be in good shape and QB Jake Rudock can run a bit himself (176 yards last year).

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #6    Pass Defense  per-game: #18   Per-attempt: #34
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #27 (raw) #21 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #40	'14 picks: #121
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #11 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #36	'15 picks: #120

Michigan's defense was far better than the offense to say the least, especially against the run. The defensive line loses two starters, Frank Clark (9 tackles for loss) and Brennen Beyer (5.5 sacks) so they might have trouble staying in the top ten in rush defense. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Jake Ryan (112 tackles, 12 tackles for loss) but all is not lost; the other two starters are back including Joe Bolden (102 tackles) and '13 starter Desmond Morgan returns from medical redshirt. The secondary is in decent shape too and even adds Wayne Lyons from Stanford, though we don't see much improvement in the dismal interceptions totals (just 5 last year). The defense should be even better this year, bordering on top ten in adjusted scoring allowed.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Michigan needs to replace both punter Wil Hagerup (42.9 average) and kicker Matt Wile (15 of 21 field goals). They did bring in punter Blake O'Neil, a grad transfer from Weber State (44.1 average there).
• Return Game:  Dennis Norfleet (#5 receiver, #6 rusher) was the team's main return man, averaging 3.8 yards on punts and 23.1 on kickoffs. He ended up transferring to Tuskegee over the summer due to academic issues.
• Turnovers projection:  Perhaps the biggest potential improvement in the move from Devin Gardner to Jake Rudock is interceptions. Gardner had 15 and Rudock just 5 last year despite many more attempts. Assuming Shane Morris (3 picks in 40 attempts) doesn't start, Michigan could benefit from a big reduction in turnovers even if the passing game remains inconsequential.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #101 (COLD)
Jim Harbaugh comes onto the Michigan scene the most high-profile new coach, and in Ann Arbor, one of the most beloved figures. So he ought to rank even "colder" than we have him here. But our system is numbers-based, and the expectation level at Michigan is pretty high. In fact it's only because the Wolverines are coming off a losing season that he's in the COLD quadrant at all. Brady Hoke's firing shows that order of winning is just as important as the winning itself. If Hoke had gone 5-7 in his first season, then 7-6, then 8-5, then 11-2—instead of the other way around—he would be the toast of the town right now.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #77          2014 Recruiting Rank: #38
Recruiting usually takes a hit during a transition year, but this is ridiculous. It's a very small class, but so was last year's which was much better. Harbaugh is already putting together a potentially top ten class for 2016.

2014 Recap 
Michigan was fired up for the first game, a rematch with Appalachian State which they won 52-14. It's probably the only game they were fired up for, in fact. Certainly not the 2nd game, a 31-0 loss to Notre Dame. They beat lowly Miami of Ohio, then lost three straight to Utah, Minnesota, and Rutgers. At 2-4, the writing was on the wall for Brady Hoke. They beat Penn State but lost badly to Michigan State. They evened their record at 5-5 and needed to beat either Maryland or Ohio State to get to a bowl game but lost both.

Last year's prediction: Like everyone else, we figured Michigan would have a decent year and put them #29, projecting an 8-4 season. In fact, in the game-by-game section we picked 9 wins, with losses only to the really good teams on the schedule—Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State. As it turns out they lost those plus Utah, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland. We gave them a 92% chance of bowl eligibility but they were a much worse team than we thought they'd be. The problem was the offense which plummeted even with 7 starters back.

2015 Outlook

Michigan 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	@	Utah	37%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Oregon State	94%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	UNLV	99%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Brigham Young	82%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Maryland	67%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	78%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	43%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Minnesota	45%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	81%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Indiana	77%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Penn State	38%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	7%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 92%

Here we go again. Another year, another optimistic forecast for Michigan. Hey everyone else is doing it again, too. And the optimism doesn't start until week two.

Michigan's pre-conference season is all about the western United States. First they travel to Utah for a tough game that will be a good test for both ballclubs. We foresee a loss starting the Harbaugh era, but they've got a fighting chance.

Next, three teams from out West—Oregon State, UNLV, and BYU—visit the Big House and all will probably go home losers. The Wolverines should also win their first two Big Ten games (Maryland, Northwestern).

The next two games are critical, close contests with teams that beat them last year. They get Michigan State at home this year and Minnesota on the road. After Rutgers and Indiana they travel to face an improved Penn State team and close as usual against Ohio State.

Of all their games only Ohio State looks like a definite loss, meaning that a very good season is a possibility. Seven wins seems to be a minimum based on their schedule, and the cumulative estimate is split between 7 and 8 wins, and 8-4 is the single most likely result by a hair.

If this looks familiar, it's basically the same thing we said last year, except then the Ohio State game didn't look like such a foregone conclusion. This year's odds of reaching a bowl game looks eerily like last year's number. The key is that Michigan actually has to improve for once. Under Brady Hoke they consistently underperformed our projections year after year. Will things be different under Harbaugh?

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #34 Temple Owls

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Temple Owls  (American #1; East #1)

#34	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#74  Success:#86  Overall:#80
		Record: 6-6	Bowl: None
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #68 | Athlon #62 | Steele #61 | ESPN #49
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.6%   Playoff odds: <1%

I guess this counts as an outlier prediction—the Owls not far below the top 25 when the consensus is in the 60s range?

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #99 (raw) #103 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #73 (adjusted)

A stronger offensive line should help PJ Walker recover from last year's woes, and help the hapless running game too.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #88 (raw) #88 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #42
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #56 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #24

PJ Walker (2,317 yards, 13 TDs, 15 int) had an even worse sophomore slump than we predicted—his completion rate fell from 61% to 53%—but he should bounce back in 2015. Five of last year's top six receivers return, led by RB Jahad Thomas (364 yards). True, that means they lose #1 Jalen Fitzpatrick (730 yards) but they get 2013's top man, Robby Anderson (791 in '13) back. Protection should be even better this year as the offensive line returns basically intact. All in all, things look a lot better going into Walker's junior year.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #118 (raw) #117 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #102 (adj.)

There wasn't much to Temple's ground game in 2014, but three of their top four rushers are back this season. Jahad Thomas led the team with 384, but he may or may not be the feature back this year as Zaire Williams (533 yards in 2013) returns from medical redshirt and true freshman TJ Simmons could be in the mix. Regardless, the ground game should be much less impotent this year behind a stronger offensive line as pretty much everyone is back. Kyle Friend, Eric Lofton, Dion Dawkins, Brendan McGowan, and Shahbaz Ahmed all started 9+ games last year. The Owls won't transform into a running powerhouse overnight but should be more effective.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #84    Pass Defense  per-game: #22   Per-attempt: #47
Defense 10 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #39 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #54	'14 picks: #60
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #8 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #19	'15 picks: #23

Though the offense had trouble last year the defense didn't—certainly not against their competition, where they were #6 in scoring defense. Adjusted for average competition and they were just #39, but with 10 starters back they might be a legit top 10 D in 2015. The only real weakness last year was against the run and that should improve considerably as all four starters return to the defensive line including Matt Ioannidis (7.5 tackles for loss) and Praise Martin-Oguike (7.5 sacks). At linebacker the team's top tackler Tyler Matakevich (117 tackles, 9 tackles for loss) is back. The secondary is reloaded, too, with sophomore Sean Chandler joining a trio of upperclassmen. We're predicting a hefty increase in big plays, both sacks and interceptions. The Owls return their top 11 tacklers and lose only 1 of the top 20.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Alex Starzyk (38.4 average) and kicker Austin Jones (13 of 22 FG) are both back. Both were freshman last year so some improvement is expected.
• Return Game:  Khalif Herbin had a touchdown return on a punt last year (17.5 average) but he's gone. All-purpose athlete Jadah Thomas (23.7 on kickoffs) is back however.
• Turnovers projection:  Temple had far too much luck on fumbles last year, a +8 margin that they will doubtless not repeat in '15. But that could be more than offset by interceptions: PJ Walker should end up somewhere between last year's 15 and his 8 from 2013, and the defense should have more than 11.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #74 (MILD)
Matt Rhule erased some of the bad memories of 2013's 2-10 with a 6-6 year, and was rewarded with a 4-year contract extension.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #81          2014 Recruiting Rank: #43
Temple can't have a good recruiting class every year. Mostly their ranking depends on the size of the class, and last year's had more 3-star level players among its 30+ recruits. This year's class is still about par for the American Athletic Conference.

2014 Recap 
Temple established early that they were a better team, blasting Vanderbilt 37-7, almost beating Navy, then winning three straight to start 4-1. They fell to Houston and UCF, but beat East Carolina 20-10 when the Pirates were ranked. They lost three in a row to some pretty good teams (Memphis, Penn State, Cincy) and beat Tulane at the end to go 6-6. They were skipped over for a bowl (ECU was their only 'good' win) but 6-6 sure beats 2-10.

Last year's prediction: We thought the Owls would be better, and improve their record, but only to 4-8 not 6-6 (we gave a 24% chance of bowl eligibility). Game-by-game we didn't think they'd beat Vandy, East Carolina, or Tulane, but we got the other games right at least.

2015 Outlook

Temple 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Penn State	56%	W
9/12	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	53%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Massachusetts	69%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Charlotte	88%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	94%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	93%	W
10/22	Thu	@	*East Carolina	74%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	41%	L
11/6	Fri	@	*SMU	94%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*South Florida	88%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	72%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	96%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.6%

If the Owls can win a couple of tough early games and get a key upset later on, they have a legitimate shot at running the table this year.

Penn State and Cincinnati were two teams the Owls lost to last year, but if they're really as good as we think they should be at least competitive in both. By the nearly 50/50 odds for each game, they should split them. They get the Lions at home and the Bearcats on the road this time around.

If they managed to start 2-0 then they should win their next five games, too. UMass could be a challenge, especially on the road, but Charlotte and especially Tulane and UCF at home should be wins. East Carolina on the road is no pushover but the Owls beat them last year.

Then comes the one game where we have the Owls a certain underdog—Notre Dame. But it's not really that bad as the Irish have to come to Philadelphia.

If they get the upset win to keep their winning streak going, Temple just needs to take care of business in the last four AAC games to finish 12-0. Their odds of doing so are about 3%, and that's assuming they've improved as much as we think, not small assumption.

Temple is our top-ranked team in the AAC and even if they lose to Notre Dame, by winning the conference they're in great position for the Power of Five's New Year's Day Bowl. Failing that, they should at least be selected for post-season play this time around.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #36 Nebraska Cornhuskers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Nebraska Cornhuskers  (Big Ten #5; West #1)

#36	2014 Results	AP #28 USA #26	Strength:#26  Success:#35  Overall:#26
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Lost to USC 45-42 (Holiday)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #34 | USA #32 | Lindy's #30 | Athlon #29 | Steele #34 | ESPN #41
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 95%   Playoff odds: 1%

We don't think the Cornhuskers will go 12-0 this year; in fact by our estimation that's about a 1 in 200 chance. But looking at their schedule game-by-game there are not many roadblocks.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #14 (raw) #15 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #28 (adjusted)

Mike Riley has installed an Oregon State-like pro-style offense which should feature a lot more passing.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #82 (raw) #72 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #41
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #33 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #90

Tommy Armstrong (2,695 yards, 22 TDs, 12 int), with his 53% completion rate, might not seem the ideal candidate to run a pass-heavy offense. Last year the team passed 38% of the time while Oregon State passed 56% of the time; that would mean 160 more passing attemps! That's probably not going to happen quite so fast, but you get the idea. Of Nebraska's two main targets, #2 Jordan Westerkamp (747 yards) remains while #1 Kenny Bell (788 departs). Only three others had receptions in the double-digits and two are back. The offensive line loses three starters and with the added reps protection would be an issue. Riley will have to make due with the hand he's been dealt, but regardless, when you change the offensive focus, yardage follows and we see the passing game making a big leap forward—but not nearly as much as it would if the talent was there.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #19 (raw) #12 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #64 (adj.)

Nebraska's running game was very strong with Ameer Abdullah (1,611 yards, 19 touchdowns) in the backfield. He's gone, and Tommy Armstrong (#2 with 705 yards) won't be running nearly as much. Imani Cross (384) returns for his senior year but Terrell Newby (297) seemingly has the starting job sewed up. The offensive line loses three starters, with seniors Alex Lewis and Zach Sterup back to hold down the fort. Add in the shift to a passing offense and all indicators are pointing to much lower rushing totals.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #53    Pass Defense  per-game: #50   Per-attempt: #19
Defense 5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #59 (raw) #47 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #56	'14 picks: #53
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #58 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #61	'15 picks: #52

The Cornhusker defensive line loses Randy Gregory (7 sacks) but three starters return including Maliek Collins (9.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker #1 tackler Zaire Anderson (103 tackles, 11 tackles for loss) is gone, and David Santos was the only starter returning until he was dismissed this summer. But they get Michael Rose-Ivey back from a knee injury that kept him out last year. The secondary returns 2 of 4 starters; Nate Gerry (5 interceptions) is back while Josh Mitchell (13 pass breakups) is gone. All of that sounds pretty reasonable but overall five of the top six tacklers from last year are gone and some slippage will probably occur.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Sam Foltz (42.2 average on punts) and Drew Brown (14 of 21 field goals) are both back.
• Return Game:  Ameer Abdullah and his 28.0 average on kickoff returns is gone, but DeMornay Pierson-El, who had a 17.5 yard average and three touchdown returns last year on punts, is back. He'll miss the first 4-6 games, however, recovering from a fall camp injury.
• Turnovers projection:  We hardly see any difference in fumbles or interceptions this year. Armstrong should cut down on his pick rate, but he'll be throwing a lot more, too.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #90 (COOL)
Like most 1st-year coaches, Mike Riley starts in a 'honeymoon' phase. But Nebraska is coming off a 9-win season, and has a long-term expectation of almost 10 wins per year. This puts a bit of initial pressure on the new coach; after all, they fired Bo Pelini who had 9 or 10 wins all seven years of his tenure. Riley was also viewed skeptically after his 5-7 season at Oregon State. And a pass-first coach at Nebraska—didn't they already try that with Bill Callahan? You can see why the honeymoon will be very short unless Riley has a 10+ win season, pronto.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #41          2014 Recruiting Rank: #45
This year's class is pretty good for a transition year; it makes one wonder what Riley will do with his first actual class (so far the 2016 group is looking quite good). This year's class ranks in the upper half of the Big Ten.

2014 Recap
Nebraska went 9-3 in the regular season so they fired their coach,but all three of Nebraska's losses came to teams in the final College Football Committee top 25. The first, to Michigan State, was a blowout until the Cornhuskers mounted a late comeback to make it look respectible at 27-22. The Minnesota game was tight, too (28-24), but Wisconsin (59-24) was a blowout and Melvin Gordon made their defense look stoopid with 408 rushing yards. As for wins, the team started 5-0 with dominant wins over Fresno State, Miami, and Illinois, and they beat Rutgers and Iowa, too. That's five bowl teams, but their records were 6-8, 6-7, 6-7, 8-5, and 7-6. The teams they lost to were 11-2, 11-3, and 8-5. They lost one final game, 45-42 to 9-4 USC in the Holiday Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We seem to habitually underrank Nebraska; last year we put them at #50 and predicted a 7-5 finish. Game-by-game we missed wins over Fresno State, Northwestern, and Iowa, while we mistakenly gave them Minnesota.

2015 Outlook

Nebraska 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Brigham Young	79%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	South Alabama	95%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Miami FL	38%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	91%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Illinois	65%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	60%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Minnesota	42%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	76%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Purdue	69%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	40%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Rutgers	65%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Iowa	77%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

There's boring news and good news for the Cornhuskers this year. First the boring news—it will probably be another 9-win season for the Cornhuskers. Given that we favor them in 9 games, and the expected value is for an 8-4 season, after the bowl game the team could very easily end up with 9 wins for the 3rd straight year. Or perhaps 10 wins, for the 4th time in 7 years.

The good news is that in the three games where they are underdogs, they are not heavy underdogs. All three games—at Miami, at Minnesota, and vs. Michigan State—are winnable games. And therein lies hope that Nebraska could run the table and have their first undefeated regular season since 1997.

Of course, they have to also win all the games in which we favor them. And that's only a 7% chance in and of itself. The opener vs. Brigham Young—called the "Suspension Bowl" by so many—is a game the 'Huskers should win. We figure the suspensions, etc. roughly offset each other. It's a question mark, however, since we don't know all of the suspended players for either team.

South Alabama and Southern Miss should be wins unless something is very wrong. Illinois and Wisconsin will be much tougher, and since the Badgers have pretty much had their way with Nebraska over the last four years, a win is no foregone conclusion. But the last time they played in Lincoln the 'Huskers won.

Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, and Iowa are not pushovers, but if Nebraska is to have another great year they have to beat these teams routinely. And there you have it, a 12-0 season, without the Cornhuskers having to be much better than a top 25 team.

The problem is, even if they do go 12-0 they'd have to face Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, and that would not be considered a close one at all—unless the Cornhuskers are wayyyy better than we think. But that's getting ahead of ourselves. The point is, looking at just the regular season from the current vantage point, the hope for a 12-0 season is much more realistic than it's been in quite some time.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #38 Minnesota Golden Gophers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Minnesota Golden Gophers  (Big Ten #7; West #3)

#38	2014 Results	AP #34 USA #31	Strength:#36  Success:#47  Overall:#40
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Missouri 33-17 (Citrus)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #34 | Lindy's #50 | Athlon #45 | Steele #39 | ESPN #54
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 85%   Playoff odds: <1%

Minnesota has been 8-5 the last two years; they have a good chance to top that this season as they have a pretty favorable schedule...apart from playing TCU and Ohio State, that is.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #67 (raw) #50 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #46 (adjusted)

Two things will be very different about Minnesota's offense. One, David Cobb is gone. Two, they move to a no-huddle offense which could actually bring them up to an average tempo, which is a significant change. In the end the loss from one and the gain from the other might be about equal.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #121 (raw) #114 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #35
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #111 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #37

Mitch Leidner (1,798 yards, 11 TDs, 8 int) led the minimalism Gopher passing attack; he returns but without leading receiver Maxx Williams (569 yards, 8 TDs). #2 KJ Maye (298) is back, but he's the only one of the top 5 returning. Despite losing most of what little they had, the passing game can only get better one way or another.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #31 (raw) #21 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #21 (adj.)

Minnesota was obviously a running team last year, like most years. David Cobb ran for 1,626 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2014 but he's gone. QB Mitch Leidner was #2 with 452 (10 TDs). Four others also topped 100 yards including Rodrick Williams (114) who had 332 in 2013 and is the projected starter. The offensive line returns a combined three starters between full-timer Josh Campion and four half-timers. One of those, Ben Lauer, started full-time in 2013, while Jon Christenson was nearly full-time in 2013 too. All in all the line should be stronger, and with the added reps from the no-huddle offense maybe they can match last year's production in toto.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #47    Pass Defense  per-game: #16   Per-attempt: #33
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #37 (raw) #32 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #69	'14 picks: #28
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #42 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #71	'15 picks: #15

Senior Theiren Cochran is one of two starters back on the Gopher defensive line (4-3) and he co-led the team in sacks last year. The other co-leader, Damien Wilson (119 tackles) is gone from the linebacking corps. The secondary is in good shape however as Briean Boddy-Calhoun (5 interceptions) is back. OVerall things look pretty good; the top two tacklers are gone, but the next five return. The move on offense to a faster pace, however, will inevitably drag the defense down a bit as opposing teams have more plays and drives themselves.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Ryan Santoso (12 of 18 FG) and punter Peter Mortell (45.1 average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Craig James (8.7 average on punts) and Jalen Myrick (28.2 on kickoffs, one touchdown return) are both back.
• Turnovers projection:  Not much change seen here.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #79 (COOL)
Jerry Kill seems to have his seizure problem more under control these days, as he didn't miss any games last season. He's also had two back-to-back 8-5 seasons, the most wins the Gophers have had since 2003.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #39          2014 Recruiting Rank: #51
Kill's health problems never seemed to adversely affect recruiting, which would be bad since Minnesota has never had many 4- and 5-star players typically. This year's class is pretty decent—all are consensus 3-stars—ranking firmly in the top half of the Big Ten.

2014 Recap
Minnesota didn't impress for most of the year. Two-thirds of the way through the season they had no decent wins and had just lost to Illinois. Their game performances were less than stellar, and in their one game against an truly good opponent (TCU) they were thrashed 30-7. But then came the Iowa game, and with a 51-14 blitz Minnesota found new life. They played well against Ohio State in a 31-24 loss then beat Nebraska 28-24 to stay alive in the Big Ten West. It didn't last; they fell to Wisconsin 34-24 and in the Citrus Bowl they lost to Missouri 33-17.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Minnesota #47 and projected a 7-5 season; both were a bit low as the Gophers ended up 8-4 in the regular season. Game-by-game we only favored them six times; we had them as underdogs vs. Eastern Illinois (at 49%, and we disowned this in the comments), Michigan, and Nebraska, while favoring them vs. Illinois.

2015 Outlook

Minnesota 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	TCU	15%	L
9/12	Sat	@	Colorado State	73%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Kent State	90%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Ohio	81%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Northwestern	60%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Purdue	68%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	58%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	54%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Ohio State	2%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Iowa	61%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	80%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	59%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 85%

Minnesota picked the wrong two years to play TCU. This time they get them in the opener, and at least it's at home. Maybe they'll be rusty and the Gophers can surprise them? Or maybe not. The good news is, unless they are demoralized from a beatdown in game one, the next seven games could be wins.

First Colorado State on the road. Again, unless the TCU hangover is bad this should be a win. MAC teams Kent State and Ohio at home should be wins, too. Into the Big Ten season, Northwestern and Purdue on the road will be tough but Minnesota can take them. The difficulty increases with Michigan and Nebraska but these games are at home.

All of that leads up to the Ohio State game in Columbus which is, from a pre-season vantage point, a near-impossible task. But the last three games should be wins, too. They play at Iowa, and the beatdown/letdown rule is in effect here especially: if the Gophers really just won 7 straight then got destroyed by the Buckeyes, they might have a carryover letdown in Iowa City. Illinois at home is a safe bet, and Wisconsin at home is a reasonable bet.

Game-by-game that's 10 wins against 2 very certain losses. In cumulative terms that's just a 7-5 season due to the many uncertain games. But as a risk/reward situation, taking two quite certain losses vs. 10 possible wins is a good tradeoff.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #41 South Carolina Gamecocks

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

South Carolina Gamecocks  (SEC #13; East #6)

#41	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#37  Success:#37  Overall:#38
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Miami 24-21 (Independence)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #36 | Lindy's #49 | Athlon #37 | Steele #56 | ESPN #40
		Record: 6-6	Bowl odds: 53%   Playoff odds: <1%

Four tossup games—two right at the beginning of the season, two at the end—will determine whether South Carolina goes bowling this year.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #43 (raw) #26 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #62 (adjusted)

The Gamecocks lose quarterback Dylan Thomas and running back Mike Davis, leaving the source of offensive production a question mark.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #21 (raw) #14 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #72
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #62 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #76

The Gamecock passing game is in a big of trouble, it would seem. Dylan Thompson (3,564 yards, 26 TDs, 11 int) is gone and sophomore Connor Mitch (19 yards, 0:0) replaces him. The one thing Mitch has going for him is receiver Pharoh Cooper (1,136 yards, 9 TDs) as a target. That's almost literal, because the next four pass catchers depart including #2 Nick Jones (504 yards). The fun fact here is that WR Cooper had more passing yards (78) and touchdown passes (2) last year than the new QB. Mitch will do all right but we see a large drop in passing unless Cooper has a way to throw to himself.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #67 (raw) #51 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #71 (adj.)

Mike Davis (982 yards) leaves Columbia, SC without quite living up to his Heisman potential due to injuries last season. Because of those injuries Brandon Wilds (570 yards) was able to get more reps, and this year he and sophomore David Williams (256 yards) will carry the load. The offensive line loses two starters; Brandon Shell, Will Sport, and Alan Knott are back, while part-time starter Clayton Stadnik lost so much weight due to strep throat that he had to move to tight end. Though both Wilds and Williams had a better ypc than Davis, they probably can't match the yardage of Davis and themselves combined.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #96    Pass Defense  per-game: #45   Per-attempt: #66
Defense 8 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #89 (raw) #57 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #120	'14 picks: #80
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #46 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #120	'15 picks: #79

Forget the analysis, we're just going to start by pointing out that the Gamecock defensive line has starters name Gerald Dixon and Gerald Dixon Jr. Gerald Dixon is a junior, while Gerald Dixon Jr is a senior and won't have to hear anyone point this fact out next year. At linebacker top tackler Skai Moore is back, and among the starters returning to the secondary is TJ Gurley, who is apparently moving to nickelback even though the defense moves from a 4-2-5 to 4-3. In any case, 6 of the top 7 tacklers are back and they pick up grad transfer Isaiah Johnson who started at Kansas; we look for a stronger defense, even as big plays (sacks and picks) remain elusive.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Elliot Fry (18 of 25 FG) is back but punter Tyler Hull (41.5 ave) departs; they do have Florida Atlantic transfer Sean Kelly (42.7 ave in 2013) as a replacement.
• Return Game:  Pharoh Cooper averaged 5.0 yards per punt return last year while Shon Carson had 20.4 per kickoff. Both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  The main worry here is interceptions from the inexperienced quarterback; Dylan Thompson threw 11 in 451 attempts, a very low rate (<2.5%) that Connor Mitch is sure to exceed.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #62 (MILD)
After three 11-2 seasons South Carolina fell to 7-6 last year. Steve Spurrier has hinted at retirement at times then backed off, saying he would hang around at least a few more years.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #7          2014 Recruiting Rank: #34
Any worries about Steve Spurrier's retirement talk hurting recruiting should be thrown out the door with the arrival of this class. With 30 high-quality signees, it's basically double the size of last year's class. Amazingly, it rates close to the middle of the pack for the SEC, which holds down 5 of the top 6 in our 2015 rankings.

2014 Recap
South Carolina had high expectations after going 11-2 the last three years, but the first game—a 52-28 loss to Texas A&M at home—was like a cold bucket of ice water. Things improved quickly with the 33-23 win over East Carolina and especially the 38-35 upset of Georgia, and it looked like the team was on the right track. But Missouri edged the Gamecocks at home, 21-20, then Kentucky beat them for only the 2nd time this century. Furman provided some relief, but SC lost close games to Auburn and Tennessee and stood 4-5 with three games left. They beat Florida in overtime and topped South Alabama, but were manhandled 35-17 by rival Clemson to finish 6-6. The Independence Bowl vs. Miami was a clash of two very disappointed 6-6 teams and the Gamecocks managed a 24-21 win.

Last year's prediction: We ranked South Carolina way too high at #14; our only defense is that everyone else across the board had them in the top ten. We projected a 9-3 finish, and on the game-by-game chart we missed more games than we got right (5 right vs. 7 wrong), possibly the only team that happened with.

2015 Outlook

South Carolina 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	N	North Carolina	53%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	54%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Georgia	6%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	91%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Missouri	33%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*LSU	23%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	79%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	22%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Tennessee	10%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Florida	49%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	The Citadel	98%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Clemson	46%	L
Straight up: 5-7  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 53%

Our game-by-game chart was off last year, so maybe it's appropriate that this year there are so many tossup games. SC kicks off with two games that could go either way, but if they go 0-2 vs. North Carolina (in Charlotte) and Kentucky they might have trouble reaching a bowl game.

That's because there are five fairly solid losses on the schedule: Georgia on the road, Missouri (road), LSU at home, and Texas A&M and Tennessee both on the road. That leaves room for seven wins, and if the first two games are losses, then 5-7 is the best they can do.

We call Central Florida, Vanderbilt and of course, The Citadel wins, but Florida and Clemson, both at home, are tossups in our book. If the Gamecocks went 2-0 early on they'll need another win here; if they went 1-1 they'll have to win both to reach 6-6. This is why our bowl odds for the team are just above 50/50.

If South Carolina is a bit worse than we think—or if they have bad luck with injuries—they could lose all the tossup games and go a dreadful 3-9. Even if they're quite a bit better than we expect and can win all the close ones, that's only 7-5. Doing better than that will take getting some upsets, and everything there (Missouri on the road? LSU at home?) looks pretty tough.

Of course, last year the team randomly won and lost games one week to the next, so maybe every game is in play!

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #37 Wisconsin Badgers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Wisconsin Badgers  (Big Ten #6; West #2)

#37	2014 Results	AP #13 USA #13	Strength:#16  Success:#21  Overall:#19
		Record: 11-3	Bowl: Beat Auburn 34-31ot (Outback)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #20 | USA #18 | Lindy's #16 | Athlon #19 | Steele #17 | ESPN #39
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 97%   Playoff odds: 1%

Of all the prognostications, only ESPN's analysis agrees with ours. Not coincidentally they also start with a power rating and modify that by players lost/returning.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #31 (raw) #24 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #43 (adjusted)

Losing Melvin Gordon is certain to have a big effect on the rushing offense, and they aren't about to make up for it via passing.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #118 (raw) #117 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #8
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #112 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #16

Make no mistake, the days of Russell Wilson are long gone. In 2014 Joel Stave (1,350 yards, 9 TDs, 10 int) and Tanner McEvoy (709, 5:6) had less than half the touchdowns and quadruple the interceptions Wilson had just 3 seasons ago. McEvoy is going back to playing safety (and maybe wide receiver) while Stave, who had 2,494 yards (22:13) in his last full season (2013) hopes for a more productive senior year. Leading receiver Alex Erickson (772 yards) is back along with 3 of the 6 others who topped 100 yards and McEvoy moves to receiver, too. The offensive line only gave up 13 sacks, but then they didn't throw very much—and probably won't again. Still, the numbers should be a little less sad.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #8 (adj.)

Melvin Gordon (2,587 yards, 29 touchdowns, 7.5 yard average) is going to be hard to replace, even as Wisconsin always seems to produce another monster runner. Gordon set the single-game rushing record against Nebraska (408 yards), only to see it topped next week (against Kansas, not nearly so impressive). The Badgers will lean on Corey Clement (949 yards, 9 TDs, 6.5 average) and he'll do just fine. The offensive line does lose three starters, with Tyler Marz and Dan Voltz returning. And the team won't have as much production from the QB slot as Tanner McEvoy's 574 last year. Despite all of this we see Wisconsin remaining in the top ten in adjusted rushing yardage; they can have a big drop in production and still remain there.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #11    Pass Defense  per-game: #6   Per-attempt: #42
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #19 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #30	'14 picks: #120
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #17 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #34	'15 picks: #111

Wisconsin wasn't just about production in the running game, they could stop it pretty well, too. With two of three starters gone from the defensive line, though, the rush defense might slip a bit. Wisconsin's linebacker situation is mixed: they lose Marcus Trotter (8.5 tackles for loss) and Derek Landisch (9 sacks) but Joe Schobert (10.5 tackles for loss) and Vince Biegel (7.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) are back. The secondary loses just one starter and gains Tanner McEvoy; top tackler Michael Caputo (106 tackles) also returns to the unit. Overall the defense looks to be very good once again.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Drew Meyer (37.4 ave) and kicker Rafael Gaglianone, who hit 19 of 22 field goals as a freshman, are both back.
• Return Game:  Kenzel Doe handled both punts (10.5 average) and kickoffs (22.2) for the Badgers and he is gone.
• Turnovers projection:  As good as the defense was they only had 6 interception, and that shouldn't be hard to beat.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #91 (COOL)
Paul Chryst takes over for Gary Anderson who flew the coop after just two years. Most 1st-year coaches are in the COLD category, but Wisconsin is coming off an 11-win season and has a longer-term expectation of 7 or more victories per season. Chryst has strong ties to the area and played here in the 80s, so he'll have the benefit of those intangibles when being evaluated by fans.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #64          2014 Recruiting Rank: #39
Wisconsin rarely ranks high in the ratings, and with a coaching transition year the Badgers naturally drop to near the bottom of the Big Ten.

2014 Recap
In the opener Wisconsin led LSU at the half but then forgot that they have Melvin Gordon on their team and lost, 28-24. The Badgers played well in the next two games before a three-game stretch where they didn't look good at all: beating USF by 17, losing to Northwestern, and beating Illinois by 10. They finally came to life against Maryland, pounding the Terps 52-7, and went on to shut out Rutgers 37-0, beat Purdue 34-16, and ran all over Nebraska 59-24. They edged Iowa then beat Minnesota for the right to play Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. They were doing so well at this point that they were actually favored over a JT Barett-less Buckeye squad. But everything that could go wrong against Ohio State did and they lost 59-0. Somewhat surprisingly, they recovered for the bowl game and beat Auburn in overtime to finish 11-3.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Wisconsin #20, which wasn't too far off, projecting a 9-3 record (they went 10-2 in the regular season). In the game-by-game listings we had them as underdogs only to LSU. Their next-hardest games? Northwestern, at 61% to win (they lost 20-14) and Iowa, also 61% (they won 26-24).

2015 Outlook

Wisconsin 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Alabama	15%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Miami OH	96%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Troy	98%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	92%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	76%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Nebraska	40%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	81%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Illinois	65%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	79%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Maryland	63%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	75%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Minnesota	41%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 97%

Apparently playing LSU in Arlington wasn't enough of a challenge for Wisconsin—they needed to play Alabama, too. It would be a great win for the Big Ten if it could happen, but since we've downgraded Wisconsin a lot more than the Tide we don't see it happening. They next three games should provide some solace, as all should be very easy wins. If the Badgers beat Alabama, or lose any of the next three games to Miami Ohio, Troy, or Hawaii, our projection is very off one way or the other.

They have their fourth home game in a row when they face Iowa, and they ought to beat the Hawkeyes, too. Then they travel to Nebraska and that could be their first Big Ten loss.

The next five games should be wins, too. Three are at home (note that they play seven home games, and only four true road games? Smart thing to do when you have Alabama on the pre-conference slate) and only Maryland looks like a challenge. They finish at Minnesota which is another difficult test.

That comes out to about 9 wins, only 8-4 by the cumulative odds, but neither of their Big Ten losses is so big of a hill to climb that an 11-1 year is impossible. In fact, if the Badgers are still a top 25 team like everyone else expects, they should be favored to run the table in conference play. Then their only obstacle to a Big Ten title is the fact that they'd have to play Ohio State, and we know how that ended up last time.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #44 Texas Longhorns

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Texas Longhorns  (Big Twelve #7)

#44	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#45  Success:#67  Overall:#44
		Record: 6-7	Bowl: Lost to Arkansas 31-7
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #38 | USA #38 | Lindy's #34 | Athlon #33 | Steele #28 | ESPN #30
		Record: 6-6	Bowl odds: 51%   Playoff odds: <1%

Just like last year, we put Texas lower than anyone else. Unfortunately for those who expect a Longhorn resurgence this season, we were right last time.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #109 (raw) #87 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #71 (adjusted)

The offense doesn't necessarily look much better, but going up-tempo should spark scoring.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #90 (raw) #81 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #79
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #65 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #61

Tyrone Swoopes (2,409 yards, 13 TDs, 11 int) was thrust into action before he was really ready following David Ash's career-ending injury. He'll have to win the position again this year but current indications are that he remains the starter. Unfortunately he'll be without leading receiver John Harris (1,051 yards, 7 TDs) and perennial #2 Jaxon Shipley (577). Senior Marcus Johnson (313) leads the 3 returnees who had 100+ yards. Protection was terrible last year for Swoopes (29 sacks allowed) but should be better this year as almost the entire O-Line returns intact. Swoopes should be a lot more prepared this year, and even though his targets are depleted he'll have more time and the new offense is better suited to him.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #101 (raw) #89 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #76 (adj.)

Malcolm Brown (708 yards) is gone but #2 Johnathan Gray (637) is back for his senior year. He'll be running behind a much more experienced offensive line since almost everyone is back. Sedrick Flowers, Taylor Doyle, Marcus Hutchins, and Kent Perkins are back with one half-time starter (another, Camrhon Hughes, left the team right before the season). QB Swoopes (262 yards) should be able to run more in the new offense, which will have more reps due to the higher tempo.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #60    Pass Defense  per-game: #1   Per-attempt: #1
Defense 5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #34 (raw) #12 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #11	'14 picks: #27
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #41 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #26	'15 picks: #40

Counting Texas' defensive line as a 4-man unit, two starters are back including Hassan Ridgeway (6 sacks) while Cedric Reed (5.5 sacks) and Malcolm Brown (6.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss) are both gone. Both linebackers in 4-2-5 formation are gone, however, and they were the team's two top tacklers, Jordan Hicks (147 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss) and Steve Edmond (131 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss). They still have Dalton Santos, who started in 2013 and had 10 tackles for loss that year. Last year's pass defense was the best in the country both per-game and per-attempt in limiting yardage, and three starters are back in the secondary including Duke Thomas (10 pass breakups). Losing the two top linebackers hurts, and overall 6 of the top 7 tacklers are gone; speeding up the offense just makes it harder.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Texas loses both punters they used last year (42.2 average) but kicker Nick Rose (14 of 21 FG) is back.
• Return Game:  Texas returns their two main kickoff returners (18.5 average), but Jaxon Shipley (9.3 ave on punts) is gone. They still have Daje Johnson, who had a touchdown return in 2013.
• Turnovers projection:  Texas had a -7 fumble margin last year which probably won't happen again this year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #30 (WARM)
After just one season, Charlie Strong is nearing the hot seat. That's life at Texas, where losing seasons are not tolerated. Strong's 6-7 was worse than 15 of Mack Brown's 16 seasons, but he'll have a few more years to get the team heading in his direction. After that, judgement falls.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #8          2014 Recruiting Rank: #20
This year's fantastic recruiting class is the best in the Big Twelve and includes consensus 5-star linebacker Malik Jefferson from Mesquite, TX. 4-star tight end Devonaire Clarington is re-taking the ACT as we speak in an attempt to qualify.

2014 Recap
Texas started the year with a solid 38-7 win over North Texas but they lost David Ash and were embarrassed at home in game 2 by BYU, 41-7. They played UCLA a lot tighter, losing 20-17 and the Kansas shutout gave them three respectable games out of four. They lost to Baylor but held them to 28 and they almost upset Oklahoma losing 31-26. It didn't matter to fans, of course, that they'd only played one bad game—they were 2-4 at the midpoint. Worse, they struggled with Iowa State (48-45) and lost to Kansas State by the same score they'd beaten the Jayhawks, 23-0. The tide only turned with a 34-13 win over Texas Tech, and a 33-16 upset of West Virginia. They controlled Oklahoma State 28-7 to become bowl eligible—but they weren't up to snuff against TCU, who beat them even worse than BYU had (48-10). The season ended on another down note as Arkansas thumped them 31-7 in the Texas Bowl.

Last year's prediction: Almost everyone had Texas fever last year, putting the Longhorns in the top 25. We didn't fall for it, keeping them outside at #30 (still too high) and projecting a 7-5 record which was a win too optimistic. We got the improvement in the defense just about right but not the decline in the offense, which was largely due to David Ash's injury. Game-by-game we picked every game correctly until the final two, which we flipped (had them losing to OK State and beating TCU).

2015 Outlook

Texas 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Notre Dame	19%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Rice	92%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	California	43%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	56%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*TCU	6%	L
10/10	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	18%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	62%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Iowa State	65%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	98%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*West Virginia	30%	L
11/26	Thu	vs.	*Texas Tech	58%	W
12/5	Sat	@	*Baylor	8%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 51%

It's not a rebuilding year per se, but another 'building' year for Texas the way we see it. The 9-game Big Twelve schedule isn't very forgiving, however, and not only that, the Longhorns play a tough non-conference slate. It starts with Notre Dame on the first weekend, on the road. Rice at home should help them get over the probable loss to the Irish, but they might be surprised at how good California is. It's an excellent litmus test for both teams, but fans may be really pissed if the Longhorns start out 1-2.

They should win the Big Twelve opener as they host Oklahoma State, but they'll probably lose the next two: TCU on the road and Oklahoma in Dallas. It would be the second 2-4 start in a row if they don't beat Cal.

Then they hit the easiest stretch on the schedule: Kansas State at home, Iowa State, and Kansas. Even if they drop the West Virginia and Baylor road games, they can probably beat Texas Tech at home to make it to 6-6 again. The odds aren't overwhelmingly in their favor but they have some leeway. Again, beating Cal would be a big plus. So would winning a bowl game and avoiding another losing season.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #42 Miami Hurricanes

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Miami Hurricanes  (ACC #6; Coastal #4)

#42	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#38  Success:#48  Overall:#36
		Record: 6-7	Bowl: Lost to South Carolina 24-21 (Independence)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #37 | Lindy's #54 | Athlon #43 | Steele #25 | ESPN #29
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 75%   Playoff odds: <1%

If Miami is just a little better than we project—or if they win all the close games—it could be the difference between 4-8 and 11-1.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #61 (raw) #56 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #86 (adjusted)

With Duke Johnson gone, Brad Kaaya becomes the star of the offense; he just needs a little help from his friends.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #49 (raw) #47 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #37
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #54 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #65

Brad Kaaya (3,198 yards, 26 TDs, 12 int) was an unquestionable bright spot for the team last year as a freshman, and hopes are high going into his sophomore year. Will he be even better, or fall victim to the dreaded 'sophomore slump'? We think a bit of the latter might happen, but through no real fault of his own. The team's top three pass catchers from last year are gone, including Phillip Dorsett (871 yards, 10 TDs) and Clive Walford (676 yards). Herb Waters (277) is the leading returnee. Protection wasn't bad last year (21 sacks) but could get worse with a weaker offensive line. Six players are back who had 100+ receiving yards so some will need to step up, such as Stacy Coley and Rashwan Scott who have topped 500 yards in years past.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #50 (raw) #42 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #101 (adj.)

Duke Johnson is gone, and with him his 1,652 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Joe Yearby (509 yards) was pretty darn good as a freshman and he'll take over but the offensive line clearly looks weaker this year with 3+ starters gone. Daniel Isadora is the only full-time starter back, while sophs Nick Linder and Trevor Darling started part-time. So did Taylor Gadbois but he was dismissed. Miami is starting three sophomores so the line should improve over the next two years but for now, things look questionable. They also recently lost #3 rusher Gus Edwards (349 yards).

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #16    Pass Defense  per-game: #13   Per-attempt: #12
Defense 5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #39 (raw) #27 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #67	'14 picks: #90
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #27 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #73	'15 picks: #62

Miami's defense was good across the board last year; though lacking in big plays they kept the yardage and points down. The defensive line is a question mark this year, though, with just one starter back—two are gone and another, Tyriq McCord, moves to linebacker. At linebacker they lose two starters—top tackler Denzel Perryman (110 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) and Thurston Armbrister (5 sacks)—but gain McCord and #2 tackler Jermaine Grace moves in as a starter. The secondary is in decent shape with two starters back, and they get the return of Rayshawn Jenkins who started in 2013. When all is said and done we see the scoring defense being roughly the same as last year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Justin Vogel (42.8 average) is back along with kicker Michael Badgley (14 of 18 field goals).
• Return Game:  Stacy Coley is back after averaging 7.0 yards per punt return and 22.5 on kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  Miami's turnover situation should be better in 2015, with more picks by the defense.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #3 (HOT)
Al Golden was snakebit from the start here, with sanctions immediately hobbling his early progress. Just when things were looking better in 2013 at 7-0, Duke Johnson was lost for the year and the 'Canes finished 9-4. But for fans, the excuses have run out and last year's finish is one example. Miami was 6-3 and on their way to beating Florida State but couldn't hold on—no shame there. But losing the next two games as favorites was emblematic of the Golden era. For a program that expects over 9 wins a year Golden's 7-win average isn't cutting it, and unless this season is very good the job will be open.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #31          2014 Recruiting Rank: #10
Last year's recruiting class was great but 2015's is only average for the ACC. If Golden's job is a 50-50 proposition at the end of the season, he won't necessarily be able to claim great recruiting as a plus, since there are presumably many who could do just as well or better in south Florida.

2014 Recap
Miami's first game was a good test to see how far the they'd advanced since the bowl loss to Louisville, and the answer after a 31-13 loss to the Cardinals was: not very far. But they grew quite a bit over the next few months. At 3-3 they had road losses to Nebraska (41-31) and Georgia Tech (28-17)but good home wins over Arkansas State (41-20) and Duke (22-10). The real progress was apparent when they beat Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina back-to-back-to-back. Peaking at the right time, they took on undefeated Florida State and led by 16. They couldn't sustain it and lost 30-26—and with it, their season collapsed. It just seemed they gave up, losing badly to Virginia (30-13) and Pitt (35-23), two teams they should have beaten easily. The defense played well in the Independence Bowl but they lost to South Carolina 24-21 to finish 6-7.

Last year's prediction: We put Miami at #40 pre-season, and since they finished #38 in Strength that was about right. Our projection was for a 7-5 season and they didn't quite get there. Game-by-game we had the 'Canes favored in 8 games, missing losses to Louisville, Virginia, and Pitt, and the win over Virginia Tech.

2015 Outlook

Miami 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Bethune-Cookman	99%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Florida Atlantic	85%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Nebraska	60%	W
10/1	Thu	@	Cincinnati	47%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Florida State	26%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	41%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	45%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Duke	55%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	74%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*North Carolina	41%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	39%	L
11/27	Fri	@	*Pittsburgh	46%	L
Straight up: 5-7  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 75%

There is good news and bad news on the schedule. First the bad news: the 'Canes are only clear favorites in four games this year. The good news? They are only clear underdogs in one game. That makes anything from 4-8 to 11-1 a reasonable outcome.

Two of the obvious wins are at the beginning of the season when the Hurricanes face Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic. They host Nebraska, and though that game is marked as pretty close, for our purposes it's another win. It's also a sign-post game; if Miami loses, then they probably end up closer to 4-8 than 11-1.

Cincinnati on the road is a true tossup game, then they travel to Florida State which we mark as their only clear-cut loss; even that one doesn't look like a blowout at all.

The next three games are a perfect example of Miami's ACC schedule, as they get Virginia Tech and Clemson both at home, making those games very competitive, and face Duke on the road which makes that game closer, too. Virginia at home should be a win, then it's North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh, more games where we have the 'Canes a slight underdog.

This is a perfect example of the usefulness of the cumulative projection, as most of these games could go either way. Add up the games where we favor Miami and it looks like a bad season. Use the overall odds and it looks like another typical 7-win year for Golden. But looking at each game's odds, it's clear that Miami has the potential for a very good year, too.

This season, winning close games would make for a memorable year. But so far Al Golden's Miami teams haven't shown the ability to rise to the occasion. If they can do it, he deserves to stay. If they can't, they need to find someone who can inspire the team to greater heights.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #39 Oklahoma State Cowboys

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Oklahoma State Cowboys  (Big Twelve #5)

#39	2014 Results	AP NR USA #39	Strength:#55  Success:#60  Overall:#46
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Washington 30-22 (Cactus)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #28 | USA #28 | Lindy's #18 | Athlon #28 | Steele #23 | ESPN #32
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 86%   Playoff odds: 1%

Improvement on both sides of the ball should keep Mike Gundy in T. Boone Pickens' good graces.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #76 (raw) #53 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #38 (adjusted)

The Cowboys lose Daxx Garman but have two experienced QBs to take his place.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #54 (raw) #40 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #116
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #28 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #102

Daxx Garman (2,041 yards, 12 TDs, 12 int) started most of the year for Oklahoma State but after his injury Mason Rudolph (853 yards, 6:4) took over and was impressive enough to keep the job for 2015. Garman transferred, but senior JW Walsh (233, 1:1 last year) started much of 2012 (1,564 yards, 13:3) and 2013 (1,333, 9:5) is present as backup. Seven of the top eight receivers are back, too, led by Brandon Sheperd (737 yards) and David Glidden (598). Protection was terrible last year (40 sacks allowed) but things should be a bit better this year on that front with a better O-Line.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #102 (raw) #99 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #110 (adj.)

OK State didn't have a strong running game last year and this year is probably no exception. Gone are Desmond Roland (#1 with 770 yards, 10 TDs) and expelled all-purpose talent Tyreek Hill (534). Rennie Childs (294) is the top returnee and JUCO Chris Carson could take the feature spot, too. The offensive line has better news. Three starters return in Paul Lewis, Michael Wilson, and Zachary Crabtree. They also add UAB starter Victor Saleko, so essentially they have four starting players in the lineup, while Zac Veatch is just next door at tight end now. It's not enough to convince us that the running game is improving, though.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #70    Pass Defense  per-game: #52   Per-attempt: #61
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #97 (raw) #58 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #34	'14 picks: #68
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #43 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #38	'15 picks: #24

OK State's defensive line is a mixed bag this year. Two starters are back including Emmanuel Ogbah (11 sacks) but two are gone and projected replacement starter Vili Leveni is out with an Achilles injury. At linebacker two starters return including Ryan Simmons (10 tackles for loss) while Josh Furman (7 sacks) is gone. The secondary is bound to improve as top tackler Jordan Sterns (103 tackles) is back with Kevin Peterson (11 pass breakups). They add Indiana transfer Michael Hunter, too. The defense should make  good progress this season.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Ben Grogan (22 of 28 field goals) is back while punter Kip Smith (41.8 average) departs.
• Return Game:  Tyreek Hill was an electrifying player, and he returned three kicks for touchdowns last year (2 kickoffs, 1 punt). Unfortunately he was also a domestic abuser and was dismissed from the team.
• Turnovers projection:  Across the board, turnovers should be a bit kinder to the 'Pokes in 2015.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #40 (WARM)
Mike Gundy is a somewhat polarizing coach, which means that even after his success at Oklahoma State there's the feeling that if it ever ends, he's in trouble regardless of his accomplishments. Last year when OK State was on a 5-game skid there was a lot of discontent in Stillwater, but the miracle win over Oklahoma and the bowl win helped it die down. There's also the matter of T. Boone Pickens who lords over the program like Mr. Burns; it seems that at any time he could pull the plug on Gundy, or keep him around forever.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #45          2014 Recruiting Rank: #23
This year's class was a step down but is still in the top half of the Big Twelve.

2014 Recap
Oklahoma State made waves right away with their closer-than-anyone-expected, 37-31 loss to Florida State. From there they won five straight games which would be noteworthy if any of those teams had a winning record. They managed to schedule all of the conference's losing teams in a trio at the beginning of the Big Twelve season, and the other five right after. So they were pretty much set up for failure and went 1-5 after starting 5-1. And their performance got worse and worse, losing to TCU by 33, West Virginia by 24, Kansas State by 34, and Texas by 21, and Baylor by 21. Then they shocked everyone by beating rival Oklahoma in overtime to get the 6th win needed for bowl eligibility. They carried that momentum into the bowl at beat Washington 30-22.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Oklahoma State too high at #37 but our 6-6 prediction hit the mark. Given their schedule it wasn't hard to see they would have a loss followed by 5 wins in the first 6 games. For the 2nd half of the season we picked the West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma games wrong.

2015 Outlook

Oklahoma State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	@	Central Michigan	90%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Central Arkansas	96%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	UTSA	99%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Texas	44%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	64%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*West Virginia	32%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	98%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	44%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*TCU	15%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Iowa State	68%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	18%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	26%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 86%

This time around Mike Gundy got his wish (he wants three easy games to precede the conference schedule). Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, and Texas-San Antonio should be easy victims to put Oklahoma State half-way to bowl eligibility.

After that things get harder, and tougher to predict. They might split Texas and Kansas State, but which one is the win? West Virginia on the road will be a challenge, but Kansas at home shouldn't be. Texas Tech could be a close loss and Iowa State a close win, while TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma are their toughest games of the season.

If the 'Pokes start 3-0 they should be able to find three more wins over the next nine games. Even ruling out TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma they need to win half of the others. With KU almost a gimme, that's 2 wins out of 5 games. You start to see why these odds add up to over 80% chance of bowl eligibility. The cumulative projection is for a 7-5 record, so this year they shouldn't need a miracle win over their rival; that would just be cake.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #40 North Carolina Tar Heels

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

North Carolina Tar Heels  (ACC #5; Coastal #3)

#40	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#65  Success:#40  Overall:#64
		Record: 6-7	Bowl: Lost to Rutgers 41-20 (Quick Lane)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #48 | Lindy's #37 | Athlon #42 | Steele #48 | ESPN #34
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 78%   Playoff odds: 1%

North Carolina's defense won't be quite as bad this year, while the offense should be very good indeed. They're going to win quite a few games this year; they might be shootouts, but a win's a win.

Offense 10 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #37 (raw) #25 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #7 (adjusted)

Last year's offense was in the top 25 in the nation in adjusted scoring. With nearly everyone back, this year they might make the top ten.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #27 (raw) #24 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #78
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #9 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #44

Marquis Williams (3,068 yards, 21 TDs, 9 int) had a solid sophomore year even if you just consider his passing contribution. The top four targets from last year are back including Ryan Switzer (757 yards) and Mack Hollins (613). And protection should be less of an issue as nearly the entire offensive line returns intact and should reduce last year's 28 sacks. All of this adds up to the potential for a top ten passing game from the Tar Heels.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #83 (raw) #49 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #21 (adj.)

Marquis Williams led the team in rushing, too, with 788 yards and 13 touchdowns. Hopefully he'll have to carry less of the load this year. In all, the top four ground gainers are back including #2 TJ Logan (582 yards) and #4 Elijah Hood who ran for 259 as a freshman last year. The offensive line has all five starters back, and four are juniors (Lucas Crowley, Caleb Peterson, Jon Heck, and John Ferranto) so next year's line will be something to see. But for now, the running game could be very good.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #111    Pass Defense  per-game: #100   Per-attempt: #113
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #122 (raw) #112 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #94	'14 picks: #63
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #100 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #100	'15 picks: #43

North Carolina's defense was pretty terrible across the board last year. Two starters are back on the defensive line, while two depart including sacks leader Nokeithus Otis. At linebacker they expand from 2 to 3 positions, moving to a 4-3 and only Jeff Schoettmer returns. The secondary is loaded even after losing top tackler Tim Scott, as they lose a position. Des Lawrence was the team's #3 tackler and he is among the many starters back that hope to plug up UNC's porous pass D. We don't hold out much hope for a stronger pass rush (22 sacks last year) but overall the defense should be better. Or perhaps, less bad.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Tommy Hibbard (41.1 average) is gone while main placekicker Nick Weiler (5 of 8 FG) is back.
• Return Game:  Ryan Switzer (4.6 average on punts) and TJ Logan (25.3 on kickoffs) are both back. Neither had a touchdown return last year but in 2013 Logan had 2 and Switzer had 5, so the threat is always there.
• Turnovers projection:  North Carolina had a lot of luck on fumbles last year that can't continue, but that might be offset by interceptions. Specifically, Marquis Williams should cut down on the QB unit's 13 picks, as 4 were due to backup Mitch Trubisky in 78 attempts. The defense should also get more.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #26 (WARM)
Amidst the seemingly endless investigation into academics at North Carolina, the coaches just keep plugging away. Larry Fedora is in year four and has slipped a win each year, from 8 to 7 to 6-7 last year. If things get worse this year there will be some big pressure, but if they keep going to bowl games he's probably safe. Who would want to step in right now, not knowing whether some new investigation is going to impose sanctions like scholarship reductions and bowl bans?
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #48          2014 Recruiting Rank: #36
Players aren't completely shying away from UNC in the face of some uncertainty from investigations, but it's true that this year's class ranks near the bottom of the ACC.

2014 Recap
North Carolina played great offense all year, racking up 40+ points six times. It's hard to say what was their offensive peak: 56 on Liberty, 35 on Clemson's tough D, 43 on Notre Dame, 48 in beating Georgia Tech, or maybe 45 in beating Duke? They needed that offense to make up for their awful D, which gave up 40+ points 5 times. The offense was good enough to offset the D half the time, and when they lost it was usually the defense's fault (example: 70 points by East Carolina). So the puzzling thing is—what happened against North Carolina State where they scored just 7 points? They were nearly shut out, scoring with minutes left to play. That poor offense carried over to the bowl game against Rutgers, where they scored just 21 and gave up 40 points yet again.

Last year's prediction: We ranked UNC #41 last year, failing to see how bad the defense was going to become (they had 6.5 starters back, and the 0.5 ended up playing anyway). Of course the offense exceeded our expectations so it almost evened out; we projected 7-5 and they ended up 6-6. Game-by-game however we listed 9 wins, with East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and NC State the ones they didn't get.

2015 Outlook

North Carolina 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	N	South Carolina	47%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	North Carolina A&T	98%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Illinois	86%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Delaware	100%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	24%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	86%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	74%	W
10/29	Thu	@	*Pittsburgh	46%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Duke	71%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Miami FL	59%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	26%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*NC State	43%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 78%

North Carolina opens against South Carolina on a neutral field on day one of the college football season, and it should be a good one, possibly down to the wire. Following that are three almost certain wins: a near-freebie vs. North Carolina A&T, a probable win vs. Illinois, and a certain freebie vs. Delaware. Note that with two FCS teams on the schedule UNC needs to get seven wins for bowl eligibility (assuming they beat both FCS teams).

They'll go into Georgia Tech 3-1 or even 4-0, and probably come out with another loss. Home games vs. Wake Forest and Virginia should give them another two wins, then they have their 2nd tossup game, facing Pittsburgh on the road. Duke and Miami look like wins this year; Virginia Tech and NC State are more likely losses.

Interestingly North Carolina's cumulative projection exceeds their "straight up" win total; UNC's seven wins are pretty clear, and they come up slightly on the short end of two or three tossup games which they should split. If North Carolina wins the close games then the sky's the limit; they only have a couple of games where they are decided underdogs, and even those aren't prohibitive.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #43 Texas Tech Red Raiders

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Texas Tech Red Raiders  (Big Twelve #6)

#43	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#71  Success:#95  Overall:#68
		Record: 4-8	Bowl: None
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #47 | Athlon #48 | Steele #50 | ESPN #45
		Record: 6-6	Bowl odds: 68%   Playoff odds: <1%

The offense and defense both look better this year, and it should be enough to get the Raiders back to a bowl game.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #53 (raw) #35 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #17 (adjusted)

With two good quarterbacks, a host of good receivers, and a strong offensive line, the offense ought to thrive this year.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #5 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #14
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #3 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #11

Davis Webb (2,539 yards, 24 TDs, 13 int) started the last two years but sophomore Patrick Mahomes (1,547 yards, 16 TDs, 4 int) took over after Webb was injured and has presumably kept the job. As usual Tech is loaded with receivers, with six of the top seven back. They lose only #2 Bradley Marquez (821 yards, 10 TDs) while #1 Jakeem Grant (938 yards, 7 TDs) returns with #3 Devin Lauderdale (589, 7). The O-Line allowed a remarkable 13 sacks vs. 559 attempts (quick release QBs help) and should be every bit as good this season. With both Mahomes and Webb back look for a great passing attack to be even greater.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #82 (raw) #71 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #45 (adj.)

The ground game for Tech is often considered an afterthought but DeAndre Washington gained 1,103 yards last year, hardly an afterthought. The top four ground gainers are back and that includes QB Patrick Mahomes (104 yards, 2.3 average). The offensive line loses just one starter, with Jared Kaster, Alfredo Morales, LeRaven Clark, and Baylen Brown all back. We see a more productive year with Mahomes, a better runner than Webb, at QB.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #123    Pass Defense  per-game: #44   Per-attempt: #72
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #126 (raw) #111 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #80	'14 picks: #115
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #77 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #50	'15 picks: #45

The Raider rush defense was pathetic last year, near the worst in the nation. Will it get better this year? There should be improved D-Line play as Branden Jackson (5 sacks) is back and linebacker Pete Robertson (#1 tackler, 12 sacks) moves up front. But where does that leave the linebacking corps as they also lose #2 tackler Sam Eguavoen as they move to a 4-3 (from 4-2-5). The secondary is in the best shape with everyone back including Justis Nelson (16 pass breakups). The Raiders had so many pass breakups and so few interceptions (6) that something has to give; we think the # of picks will probably double this year. Sacks should be up, too, as almost everyone responsible returns. Overall the defense can only get better than #126th in the nation (raw scoring) and #111 when adjusted.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Taylor Symmank (42.6 average) is back while kicker Ryan Bustin (10 of 14 FG) moves on.
• Return Game:  Cameron Batson (3.6 average on punts) is back, and for kickoffs Jakeem Grant (22.4) is back while fellow WR Reginald Davis returned one for a touchdown in 2013.
• Turnovers projection:  While it seems that starting Patrick Mahomes (4 int) at QB should lead to fewer picks than Davis Webb's 13, the real improvement in the turnover situation might come from the defense where the full secondary returns.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #12 (HOT)
The fact that Kliff Kingsbury shows up at #12 on our Hot Seat formula makes plain the fact that our Hot Seat formula only accounts for wins and losses, not intangibles such as how respected or accepted or beloved a coach is at a certain school. Kingsbury is a hero to most fans and was the all-time leading passer for the team when he left in 2002. As a player he helped create the high expectations that now put him on our formula's hot seat; Tech averages almost 7 wins a year long-term, and dropping from 8-5 to 4-8 doesn't sit well most of the time. Kingsbury will still be here next year no matter what happens, but if he were anyone else, there would be doubt about that.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #70          2014 Recruiting Rank: #33
This year's class is a step down from last year, which isn't that surprising following a 4-8 season. It's also a lot smaller than the previous class, and ranks near-last in the Big Twelve.

2014 Recap 
Texas Tech seemed to be in trouble early on, beating Central Arkansas just 42-35 and UTEP 30-26. The defense didn't show up any better in losses to Arkansas (49-28), Oklahoma State (45-35), Kansas State (45-13) or West Virginia (37-34). Finally they beat Kansas to get another win, but they lost three more including an embarrassing 82-27 loss to TCU. The Raiders beat Iowa State 34-31 for their 4th win and lost a shootout to Baylor 48-46. Yes, the problem last year was defense.

Last year's prediction: We put Texas Tech #46 and projected a 7-5 season. The main thing we got wrong was the drop in the defense was much worse than expected. We picked 6 wins on the game-by-game chart, giving them Arkansas and West Virginia.

2015 Outlook

Texas Tech 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston State	93%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	UTEP	95%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Arkansas	15%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*TCU	14%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	16%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	80%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Kansas	95%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	13%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	56%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*West Virginia	30%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	62%	W
11/26	Thu	@	*Texas	42%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 68%

Like last year, Texas Tech plays an FBS team and then UTEP. This time the games shouldn't be competitive—though that's what we thought last season. They follow the early games with one of the toughest three-game stretches that any team has this year: Arkansas on the road, then TCU and Baylor back-to-back at home. They've got a slim chance in all three.

Iowa State at home should even their record, and after Kansas they should be up a game at 4-3. Then they just need two wins in five games to reach bowl eligibility. Oklahoma on the road doesn't look good, but Oklahoma State at home is a ripe opportunity. Two of the last three games are road games and the home game, Kansas State, looks like the best chance of the three to get to six.

With four games that look just plain too tough to win, going 8-4 is probably the best the Red Raiders can expect this year. A repeat of 4-8 is a worst-case scenario, and for that to happen the defense would have to not improve at all. It still looks like there will be shootouts as the D won't suddenly be world-class, but instead of shootouts with FCS teams they might be with Big Twelve teams. And TCU won't score 82 on them again, we're pretty certain.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #45 North Carolina State Wolfpack

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

North Carolina State Wolfpack  (ACC #7; Atlantic #3)

#45	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#56  Success:#46  Overall:#55
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat UCF 34-27 (St. Petersburg)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #36 | USA #45 | Lindy's #33 | Athlon #39 | Steele #47 | ESPN #42
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 97%   Playoff odds: 2%

NC State improved from 3-9 to 7-5 (regular season) last year, and they hope to make another leap this year.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #56 (raw) #52 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #37 (adjusted)

The primary focus (running game) should improve, but so should the secondary focus (passing game).

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #84 (raw) #84 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #84
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #70 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #84

On a run-first team, you can't expect much better in terms of passing stats than Jacoby Brissett delivered: a decent 60% completion rate, a modest 2,606 yards of production, a healthy 23 touchdown passes, and just 5 interceptions. This year five of the top seven receivers are back; they're without #1 Bo Hines (616 yards) but #2, tight end David Grinnage (358) returns. Though protection will remain an issue (29 sacks last year), Brissett's senior year should be more productive, even if it will be hard to improve on last year's excellent ratio.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #39 (raw) #30 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #22 (adj.)

Shadrach Thornton (907 yards, 9 TDs) returns with Matt Dayes (573 yards, 8 TDs) and of course, QB Jacoby Brissett (529), and that is the core of the ground team. The offensive line loses two starters, with four players taking up the other three spots: Quinton Schooley is the only full-time starter back while Joe Thuney, Alex Barr, and Tony Adams each started 8 or 9 games. The Wolfpack running game should be top 25 level this year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #58    Pass Defense  per-game: #65   Per-attempt: #40
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #71 (raw) #64 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #47	'14 picks: #88
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #62 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #77	'15 picks: #53

The defensive line is the weakest area in the Wolfpack D this year; Mike Rose (5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) is back but they lose Art Norman (6.5 sacks). At linebacker in the 4-2-5 Rodman Noel (11 tackles for loss) is gone. But all five starters return to the secondary, including Jack Tocho (11 pass breakups). Weaker up front, but stronger against the pass, the scoring defense might be basically unchanged.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Wolfpack loses both kicker Niklas Sade (12 of 17 FGs) and punter Wil Baumann (45.4 average).
• Return Game:  Most of NC State's return team is back, including Bra'Lon Cherry (5.8 on punts) and Matt Dayes (18.3 on kickoffs). .
• Turnovers projection:  With five starters back in the secondary we figure interceptions will be up; at QB it will be hard to do much better than last year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #66 (MILD)
Dave Doeren is going into his 3rd year here. In his first he went 3-9, the Wolfpack's worst since 2006. But last year's 8-5 season took him off the hot seat and put him in limbo, with most fans waiting to see where the team goes from here.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #35          2014 Recruiting Rank: #15
This year's class isn't quite as strong as last year's top 25 class, but it loses more in quantity rather than quality. It still ranks in the middle of the ACC pack.

2014 Recap
NC State opened with wins over two teams that would have been bowl-eligible—if they'd been eligible to be bowl eligible. Georgia Southern went 9-3 and Old Dominion 6-6 but this was the first year in the FBS for both. The Wolfpack were 4-0 as expected but then the real games started. They actually led Florida State (who didn't?) before losing by 15 points, but had no luck at all against Clemson, getting shut out 41-0. After losses to Boston College and Louisville the 'pack were 4-4. True to form, they beat two more bad teams while losing big to Georgia Tech. But then they beat their first actual bowl-bound team, rival North Carolina 35-7 to finish 7-5, following it with a solid win over Central Florida in the St. Petersberg Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We were wrong, and everyone else was right. We ranked the Wolfpack at #82, much lower than consensus. We did project a modest improvement to 5-7 from 3-9. And in the game-by-game picks we gave them 6 wins, correctly picking wins for the first four games. We missed the Boston College loss (called it a win), the Syracuse win, and the North Carolina win.

2015 Outlook

North Carolina State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Troy	98%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Eastern Kentucky	97%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Old Dominion	90%	W
9/26	Sat	@	South Alabama	88%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	68%	W
10/9	Fri	@	*Virginia Tech	22%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	73%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	44%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Boston College	58%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Florida State	28%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	87%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	56%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 97%

Once again the Wolfpack's first four games look like solid win. Troy and Eastern Kentucky are nearly guarantees, and Old Dominion and South Alabama on the road shouldn't be that much more difficult.

In fact they should be 5-0 after taking on Louisville at home. Likewise Wake Forest and Syracuse should be wins, and we favor NC State against Boston College on the road and against rival North Carolina at home.

Unfortunately they face both Virginia Tech and Florida State on the road, making for a difficult ACC schedule. Clemson is a home game but will be a tough one to win. Between those games and the other close games, the cumulative projection calls for an 8-4 record. It's easy to see how 9 or even 10 wins is a defensible prospect, so this might be a very good year for the Wolfpack.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #47 Pittsburgh Panthers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Pittsburgh Panthers  (ACC #8; Coastal #5)

#47	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#47  Success:#66  Overall:#52
		Record: 6-7	Bowl: Lost to Houston 35-34 (Armed Forces)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #53 | Athlon #41 | Steele #42 | ESPN #43
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 77%   Playoff odds: <1%

Pat Narduzzi will try to help Pitt break out of the 6-6 doldrums.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #50 (raw) #40 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #28 (adjusted)

As long as James Connor and Tyler Boyd remain injury-free, the Pitt offense should be top 25 level.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #104 (raw) #85 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #34
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #75 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #39

Chad Voytik (2,233 yards, 16 TDs, 7 int) had a reasonable sophomore year of the low-production-but-protect-the-ball variety, and this year things should pick up a bit. Mainly because he has Tyler Boyd (1,261 yards, 8 TDs) back. Many teams have a key receiver, none are quite so key as Boyd; he had 57 more receptions than the 2nd best in receptions, and 1,060 more yards than the #2 in yardage. So even though only 2 of the top 6 pass catchers are back, Boyd accounts for over 40% of the team's catches and 50% of the yardage by himself. The upshot? The passing game should improve along with Voytik, but if Boyd gets hurt then all bets are off.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #16 (raw) #14 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #7 (adj.)

James Connor (1,765 yards, 26 touchdowns) is the real workhorse of the offense, and with him back—along with two others who topped 400 yards, including QB Chad Voytik (466)—the running game could be among the top ten in the nation. The offensive line returns starters Dorian Johnson, Adam Bisnowaty, and Alex Officer, and 2013 starter Artie Rowell returns at center. They did lose projected starter Jared Jones-Smith to a knee injury this summer.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #57    Pass Defense  per-game: #75   Per-attempt: #93
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #50 (raw) #56 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #105	'14 picks: #89
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #52 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #97	'15 picks: #67

The Pitt defensive line should be in better shape this year, as in addition to last year's returnees they get back Ejuan Price who started part-time in 2011 and 2013, and add Mark Scarpinato from Michigan State. Sacks leader Rory Blair (5 sacks) also returns, either as a starter or remaining at backup. The linebacking corps are where the questions are for Pitt as they lose the team's two top tacklers, Anthony Gonzales and Todd Thomas. But the secondary should be better than last year's group, and with Narduzzi's emphasis on defense things should improve at least somewhat in his first year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Ryan Winslow (40.1 ave) and kicker Chris Blewitt (16 of 21 FG) are both back.
• Return Game:  Tyler Boyd was also the team's top return man, averaging 10.1 yards per punt return and 27.6 on kickoffs...another reason why he has to stay healthy for the team (and not get any more DUIs).
• Turnovers projection:  Pitt might have a little better luck on fumbles this year, and the defense probably will have more interceptions.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #104 (COLD)
As a 1st-year head coach Pat Narduzzi (formerly the defensive coordinator at Michigan State) is in a honeymoon period. Pitt has been 6-6 the last four years so even 7-5 would be a relief.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #95          2014 Recruiting Rank: #46
This year's weaker recruiting class is largely due to Paul Chryst leaving to go back to Wisconsin, and also due to only recruiting about 14 players. It ranks last in the ACC, but next year we'll see how well Narduzzi can really do.

2014 Recap
Pittsburgh started with a bang and fizzled fast. They beat Delaware 62-0, and beat Boston College and FIU to start 3-0. They came home and lost to Iowa, and followed that with a 21-10 loss to Akron. That was probably the rock-bottom, but they lost four of the next five, beating only Virginia Tech somehow. But remarkably, they came out of it and had two of their best games of the year. They needed to beat both Syracuse and Miami to become bowl-eligible; they trounced the Orange 30-7, then beat the Hurricanes on the road, 35-23 to finish 6-6 for the 4th straight time. Of course, just when they were getting a little big of momentum, Paul Chryst was hired away by Wisconsin. In the bowl game their momentum carried forward and they were up 34-13 late in the 4th, but they still managed to lose 35-34.

Last year's prediction: We had Pitt #54, which was pretty close, but we projected a 7-5 finish instead of the obvious 6-6. Our game-by-game picks were correct through game 4 (Iowa) and went awry at Akron; from there we got four in a row wrong as Pitt collapsed but beat Virginia Tech. In all our picks were 6-6, much like the team.

2015 Outlook

Pittsburgh 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Youngstown State	85%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Akron	85%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Iowa	55%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	22%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	71%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	21%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Syracuse	74%	W
10/29	Thu	vs.	*North Carolina	54%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	32%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Duke	50%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	65%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Miami FL	53%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 77%

Youngstown State wasn't bad last year (7-5 FCS, #116 all-Division Strength) and due to a couple of Pitt suspensions including leading receiver/return man Tyler Boyd, that game looks roughly as difficult as beating Akron on the road. Both should be wins as long as nothing is amiss with the Panthers.

The next two games are when we really find out what Pitt is made of as they travel to Iowa and then Virginia Tech. If they can beat Iowa then they're pretty good; if they can handle the Hokies on the road, they might be much better than we expected.

The ACC season is up and down from there, with expected wins over Virginia, Syracuse, and Louisville, close calls against North Carolina, Duke, and Miami, and an expected loss at Georgia Tech. The Panthers also take on Notre Dame at home but we give the Irish the edge there.

That adds up to 5 games where we clearly favor the Panthers and four close games that could go either way, which is basically how you get the cumulative estimate of a 7-5 season. While that would be nice—it's not 6-6 for a change—it means Pitt could either slip to 5-7 pretty easily, or make the jump to 9-3 too. The former would be largely forgiven in a coaching transition year whereas the latter would make Narduzzi a popular man in Pittsburgh.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #49 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs  (C-USA #2; West #1)

#49	2014 Results	AP NR USA #40	Strength:#35  Success:#49  Overall:#34
		Record: 9-5	Bowl: Beat Illinois 35-18 (Heart of Dallas)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #41 | Lindy's #83 | Athlon #86 | Steele #53 | ESPN #57
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.8%   Playoff odds: <1%

Like conference-mate Marshall, there's a split between Lindy's/Athlon and Steele/ESPN on how to rate Louisiana Tech. The former both have the Bulldogs in the 80s, the latter in the 50s. We rank them the highest of all (not counting the coaches' poll, where they were #41 due to picking up a few random votes).

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #15 (raw) #33 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #30 (adjusted)

Transfer Jeff Driskel might finally hit his stride at Louisiana Tech.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #47 (raw) #55 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #20
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #53 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #23

With Cody Sokol (3,436 yards, 30 TDs, 13 int) gone, the consensus is that Florida grad transfer Jeff Driskel will get the nod at QB. Driskel had 1,140 yards, 9 TDs, and 10 picks last year for the Gators while completing 54%; his best year was 2012 (1,646 yds, 12:5, 64%). Backup Ryan Higgins also returns; he had 1,715 yards in 2013 (6:13 ratio) as starter. Four of the top six receivers are back including #1 Trent Taylor (834 yards, 9 TDs), #2 Carlos Henderson (569 yards), and #3 Paul Turner (514). Protection should again be solid. Driskel was the top-rated QB out of high school and he's never remotely lived up to that, but he could shine here and match Sokol's numbers from last year.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #88 (raw) #95 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #79 (adj.)

La Tech returns all their top rushers from a year ago, most importantly Kenneth Dixon (1,299 yards, 22 TDs) though #4 Tevin King (101 in '14) was dismissed. The offensive line returns three starters: Kirby Wixson, Darrell Brown, and Joseph Brunson. With Dixon back and Jeff Driskel a reasonable running threat (180 yards, 2.6 ave) the ground game should move forward.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #15    Pass Defense  per-game: #91   Per-attempt: #17
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #40 (raw) #44 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #23	'14 picks: #3
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #57 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #47	'15 picks: #2

Louisiana Tech's defense was pretty solid last year, stopping the run well and sound against the pass on a per-attempt basis, plus lots of sacks and interceptions. This year the defensive line should remain sound; they lose Houston Bates (10 sacks) but return three starters including Vernon Butler (12.5 tackles for loss). The secondary also returns three starters including Xavier Woods (6 interceptions) and Adairius Barnes (5 interceptions). The linebacker corps is the big concern as all three starters are gone, and that's enough to figure that the defense as a whole will give up more points. We also see the pass rush being less effective and, even though they should rank near the top again, fewer interceptions.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Main punter Logan McPherson (36.8 average) and primary placekicker Jonathan Barnes (12 of 17 FG) are both back.
• Return Game:  #1 WR Trent Taylor averaged 7.6 yards per punt return and #2 WR Carlos Henderson had 25.0 yards per kickoff return with one touchdown. Both are back.
• Turnovers projection:  Biggest concern: interceptions. Jeff Driskel was pick-prone last year (10 picks in 212 attempts), and if he gets hurt then Ryan Higgins (13 picks in 281 attempt) offers no relief there. 2nd biggest concern: interceptions. The defense had 26 last year and we see them remaining strong in that area...but not 26 strong.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #81 (COOL)
Falling from 9-3 to 4-8 will put you on or near the hot seat, even after your first year as Skip Holtz found out. Going 9-5 the next year will take you off the hot seat, too. Yes, it's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world in college football today.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #85          2014 Recruiting Rank: #105
Recruiting was better this time around, perhaps due to the rebound from 4-8 to 9-5? This year's class ranks in the upper middle of the conference.

2014 Recap
On average, Louisiana Tech was a middling to decent team but was wildly unpredictable. At least four times in 2014 they decided to play like a top ten team—usually following that with a faceplant. We can excuse the opening 48-16 loss to Oklahoma, but how do you follow beating 9-4 ULL 48-20 and North Texas 42-21 by losing to FCS Northwestern State at home? Again, losing to Auburn 45-17 on the road is not terrible, but then how do you beat 7-6 UTEP 55-3, then edge 4-8 UTSA by just a touchdown, and escape 31-20 from 3-9 Southern Miss? They blew out 8-5 Western Kentucky 59-10, but two games later lost to Old Dominion in overtime. True to form, the Bulldogs then beat Rice 76-31, and gave a valiant effort against Marshall but came up just short, 26-23. Finally, against Illinois in the Heart of Dallas Bowl they played about how they should, winning 35-18.

Last year's prediction: Though we correctly foresaw the fall from 9-3 to 4-8 the previous year, we completely missed the recovery back to 8-4, projecting a repeat at 4-8 for the Bulldogs whom we ranked a dismal #114. We missed both the big boost in the passing game as well as the defense's improvement. Needless to say, the game-by-game predictions chart is riddled with errors—and to top it off they didn't even beat Northwestern State, one of the few games where we had them as favorites!

2015 Outlook

Louisiana Tech 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Southern U.	100%	W
9/12	Sat	@	*Western Kentucky	48%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Kansas State	40%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Florida International	88%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	92%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*UTSA	95%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Mississippi State	15%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Middle Tennessee	78%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Rice	81%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*North Texas	96%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*UTEP	86%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	89%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.8%

This year's FCS team should not be a problem. Even though Southern was 9-4 last year that is tremendously misleading; they lost to Louisiana-Lafayette 45-6 and we expect a similar result in the opener.

The next two games will determine a lot about Louisiana Tech's season—will it be merely good, or can it be great? To achieve the latter, they'll have to beat Western Kentucky and Kansas State on the road. For the C-USA race the former is very important of course. Though the Bulldogs won 59-10 last year it's certainly going to be a closer game this year. Winning that one, then beating the Wildcats on the road would do wonders for the Bulldogs' chances to make the Group of Five New Year's Day bowl game.

After two more C-USA games which should be wins, plus Louisiana-Lafayette from the Sun Belt, they face Mississippi State on the road in their toughest test. Unlike the K-State game we don't see a win being much of a possibility here. It's this game that knocks their odds of going 12-0 down to around 1%.

They close with five games that should all be wins, and we put them at 9-3 whichever way you slice it. Of course two of those losses are pretty close games while all of the wins are pretty solid, so the chance for a really great season exists. The Bulldogs are our top-rated team in the West, though they need to beat Western Kentucky early on. Like we said, Louisiana Tech's season should either be good or great, and much of that will be determined in September.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #48 Marshall Thundering Herd

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Marshall Thundering Herd  (C-USA #1; East #1)

#48	2014 Results	AP #23 USA #22	Strength:#27  Success:#16  Overall:#20
		Record: 13-1	Bowl: Beat Northern Illinois 52-23 (Boca Raton)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA #43 | Lindy's #81 | Athlon #70 | Steele #45 | ESPN #48
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.8%   Playoff odds: <1%

Quite an interesting schizm in the pre-season rankings for Marshall. Lindy's and Athlon rate the Herd at the level of a decent Group of Five team, while Phil Steele and ESPN rank them as a competitive Power Five squad. We're with the latter, which is still a large downgrade from the quality of last year's team.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #4 (raw) #13 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #36 (adjusted)

Marshall's offense was firmly in the top 25, and almost top 10 (we're correcting for their weak schedule) in 2014. Losing their star QB and a couple a key receivers will be enough to knock them down a peg, we suspect.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #18 (raw) #32 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #30
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #83 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #38

Here, obviously, is the big loss on the offensive side: Rakeem Cato (3,903 yards, 40 TDs, 13 int). His replacement will probably be Michael Birdsong, who had 2,728 yards, 22 TDs, and 15 interceptions at James Madison in 2013. How comparable is it playing for JMU and Marshall? We'll find out, but Cato isn't the offense's only big loss—top receiver Tommy Shuler (1,138 yards, 9 TDs) departs and #3 Angelo Jean-Louis (490 yards) was recently kicked off the team. They still have 4 of last year's top 8 including #2 Devonte Allen (544 yards), but losing their star QB and top receiver is a double blow, and the offensive line loses 4-year starting center Chris Jasperse.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #8 (raw) #18 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #14 (adj.)

Lost in Cato's passing stats is the fact that Marshall runs the ball more often and quite well. Devon Johnson had 1,767 yards and 17 TDs last year and he's back. They lose Stewart Butler (798 yards) but #3 Remi Watson (546) returns. Rakeem Cato was next with 482, but Michael Birdsong had 310 yards in his last season at JMU. The offensive line returns three starters, Clint Van Horn, Sebastian Johnson, and Michael Selby. The ground game could be even better this year, and pick up some of the slack if the passing game falters.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #88    Pass Defense  per-game: #23   Per-attempt: #22
Defense 5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #17 (raw) #51 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #24	'14 picks: #58
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #59 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #40	'15 picks: #44

Marshall loses the majority of their defensive starters but the reality isn't quite so harsh. The defensive line does take a hit, losing three of four starters including James Rouse (8 tackles for loss) and Arnold Blackmon (8 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker the news sounds terrible with the loss of the team's two top tacklers, Neville Hewitt (123 tackles, 5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss) and Jermaine Holmes (104 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss). But they have DJ Hunter (5.5 sacks) back and 2013 starter Evan McKelvey is back from injury, and they bring in Maryland transfer Shawn Petty. The secondary has three starters back; they lose Darryl Roberts (17 pass breakups) but Corey Tindal (12 pass breakups) returns. Overall the unit looks down but not significantly, though the rush defense is a concern.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Herd return punter Tyler Williams (44.1 average) but lose kicker Justin Haig (17 of 21 field goals).
• Return Game:  Tommy Shuler is no longer available to return punts (9.5 ave) but Deandre Reeves (29.1 average on kickoffs, 1 touchdown) is back.
• Turnovers projection:  Probably the biggest concern is interceptions from the QB position, as Birdsong threw more at JMU in '13 than Cato did last year even though Birdsong had 75 fewer attempts.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #122 (COLD)
Doc Holliday is safely ensconsed at Marshall after back-to-back double-digit winning seasons. His first three years were a bit rocky (5-7, 7-6, 5-7) for a program that expects 7 or 8 wins per season, but all is good now.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #66          2014 Recruiting Rank: #56
This year's group isn't quite as strong as last year's, but it still ranks among the top few in Conference USA.

2014 Recap
Marshall didn't get any respect for going undefeated most of the season. It's understandable when you consider their schedule—the C-USA is pretty weak really, and their non-conference schedule consisted of 3 MAC teams and an FCS squad. But they dominated their games so completely that they should have been considered worthy of a top 25 ranking by the Committee far earlier than they got it. At 11-0 they had defeated 5 bowl teams (counting ineligible Old Dominion). But they lost an overtime shootout with Western Kentucky 67-66 when their normally stingy pass defense collapsed. In the C-USA championship game they struggled with Louisiana Tech but held the Bulldogs—averaging 268 passing yards—to 72 yards through the air and won 26-23. Facing Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Marshall dominated, 52-23 to finish 13-1.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Marshall #35, which didn't quite capture how good they were but came close, and projected an 11-1 season which ended up being right. We actually got their adjusted passing rank (#13) right on the dot, though we thought the ground game would slip. Our projection for the defense—jumping from #81 to #46—was very close, too (they finished #51). On the game-by-game picks we made Marshall a big favorite in every game, with a 36% chance of going undefeated, and they almost made it there. Perhaps where we were off the most is our estimate for Marshall's odds of going to the College Football Playoff (16%); it turns out that with their schedule, even 13-0 wouldn't have helped.

2015 Outlook

Marshall 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Purdue	78%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Ohio	61%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Norfolk State	100%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Kent State	75%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Old Dominion	95%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	89%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Florida Atlantic	82%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*North Texas	96%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Charlotte	82%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Middle Tennessee	63%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Florida International	88%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Western Kentucky	46%	L
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99.8%

Despite our downgrade of Marshall's ranking, things might not go all that differently this year. Just viewing the game-by-game results, it looks like last season all over again—11 wins, then a close loss to Western Kentucky.

Marshall's new look will be put to the test early against Purdue, and then at Ohio; those two games will tell a lot about how good the team is. Norfolk State will be a chance to regroup, if necessary, or take a breather before the rest of the season.

After Kent State, the first seven conference games should all be wins as the Herd face some of C-USA's weaker teams. Middle Tennessee on the road is the biggest challenge in the stretch and their only real test if they remain as good as we think they will.

Then comes the final game, Western Kentucky once again, and this time it's on the road. Like last year's game turned out to be, we rate it as basically a tossup but home field gives the Hilltoppers the edge. We rank Marshall the top team in the East but they might need to win this game for the East title.

In any case, it looks like a very successful season for the Thundering Herd, with the cumulative projection right on the line between 9 and 10 wins; for now, we say 10-2 since it's the "mode" result (top chart) and more than 50% likely they get 10+ wins (bottom chart). Their odds of going 12-0 are about 5% but sadly, their chance of going to the College Football Playoff with this schedule are slim to none. Going 13-0 would very likely get them in the Group of Five New Year's Day "Access Bowl" however.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #46 Kansas State Wildcats

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Kansas State Wildcats  (Big Twelve #8)

#46	2014 Results	AP #18 USA #18	Strength:#13  Success:#33  Overall:#15
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Lost to UCLA 40-35 (Alamo)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #35 | USA #31 | Lindy's #43 | Athlon #44 | Steele #41 | ESPN #38
		Record: 6-6	Bowl odds: 71%   Playoff odds: <1%

Everyone is dumping Kansas State out of the Top 25 and into the mediocre zone. Since we are too, it's easy for us to see why—while at the same time harboring suspicions that Bill Snyder will somehow exceed expectations again.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #25 (raw) #20 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #66 (adjusted)

The Wildcats lose the cream of the crop from their passing game, which was their bread and butter.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #17 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #86
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #80 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #70

Jake Waters (3,501 yards, 22 TDs, 7 int) is gone, but a change in QB is not enough to downgrade a team's passing this much, no matter if his replacement is a true freshman (Alex Delton) or a backup who threw just 17 passes last year (Joe Hubener). But when a team also loses two star receivers like Tyler Lockett (1,515 yards, 11 TDs) and Curry Sexton (1,059 yards), and #4 Kody Cook (251) is one of only two returnees to top 100 yards, then it looks like a down year. The one bright spot is QB protection which shouldn't be as bad as last year (31 sacks). Undoubtedly Snyder will surprise everyone with a great new quarterback and personnel to replace their other stars, somehow.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #104 (raw) #107 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #112 (adj.)

Charles Jones (540) led the team but is the only one of the top three ground gainers who is back; QB Jake Waters had 484 and Demarcus Robinson had 437. QB Joe Hubener is a good runner, too (142 yards, 5.3 average). The offensive line returns 4 senior starters: Luke Hayes, Boston Stiverson, Matt Kleinsgorge, and Cody Whitehair. If they find some good running backs then there is great potential, otherwise it looks a lot like last year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #28    Pass Defense  per-game: #11   Per-attempt: #13
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #29 (raw) #14 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #75	'14 picks: #29
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #22 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #62	'15 picks: #46

The Wildcat defensive line loses sacks leader Ryan Mueller (6 sacks) but two starters are back and the pass rush should actually be stronger. Both Jonathan Truman (128 tackles) and Dakorey Johnson (9 tackles for loss) are gone at linebacker, however. The secondary returns three starters but loses Randall Evans (10 pass breakups). It looks like another strong defense, maybe not as strong as last year's though.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Nick Walsh (41.3 average) is back along with kicker Matthew McCrane who made 18 of 19 field goals as a freshman.
• Return Game:  Tyler Lockett was the team's main return threat, with 2 punt return touchdowns juicing a 19.1 yard average. He's gone but Morgan Burns, who had a touchdown on a kickoff return (30.7 average) is back.
• Turnovers projection:  The obvious worry is interceptions from the QB unit, where the Wildcats go from a senior who threw 7 interceptions to a true freshman or a junior who threw 1 pick in 17 attempts.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #69 (MILD)
Obviously Bill Snyder can coach here as long as he wants so our ranking is meaningless. The issue is, how long is he going to stay, and what happens to the program once he leaves? K-State had no legitimate football to speak of before he arrived and they floundered when he tried to leave before.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #65          2014 Recruiting Rank: #49
This year's class ranks pretty low in the Big Twelve, but Kansas State has never really had many high-ranking classes, the point being that the staff gets the most out of their limited talent and uses the magical mojo of JUCOs somehow to make up the difference. The issue of how long Snyder is going to remain head coach comes up from time to time when discussing K-State's recruiting situation.

2014 Recap
Kansas State's worst game was their near-loss to Iowa State (32-28) in game two, and after that they didn't really play a bad one. They lost to Auburn at home but by a touchdown, 20-14, and following that they rattled off five impressive wins: UTEP by 30, Texas Tech by 32, Oklahoma on the road, Texas in a shutout, and Oklahoma State 48-14. They were peaking just as TCU came to town and, unfortunately the Horned Frogs were peaking, too and won 41-20. They won two more games before having to travel to Baylor and they fell to the Bears by 11 points, 38-27. In the bowl against UCLA they came out amazingly flat and fell behind 31-6 at the half, but battled back to lose 40-35. Not a win, but again, not a bad effort in the end.

Last year's prediction: Since it's been our theme, of course the Wildcats exceeded our expectations. We downgraded them from #23 in Strength to #36, and they ended up #13 instead. We projected a 7-5 finish and they finished 9-3. Game-by-game we did have the Wildcats getting 8 wins, and the only pick we got wrong was Oklahoma, so ultimately our review wasn't all that bad.

2015 Outlook

Kansas State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	South Dakota	98%	W
9/12	Sat	@	UTSA	96%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	60%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	36%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*TCU	12%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	21%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Texas	38%	L
11/5	Thu	vs.	*Baylor	14%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	38%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	77%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Kansas	94%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	43%	L
Straight up: 5-7  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 71%

The Wildcats are almost guaranteed to start 2-0 with an opener vs. South Dakota and a visit to a woeful UTSA squad. The next three games get progressively harder, with Louisiana Tech providing a stiff challenge, then Oklahoma State on the road and TCU at home the first of five games where we find the Wildcats the underdog.

The easiest Big Twelve games come at the end vs. Iowa State and Kansas, then West Virginia is another tough but winnable game. Ultimately we give them 3 wins at the beginning and 2 more at the end, which isn't enough for a bowl game but with all the upset possibilities there is a very strong chance they make it to 6-6.

Or you can ignore all that and assume Bill Snyder will have his team at top 25 level and competing for the Big Twelve title again.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #50 Cincinnati Bearcats

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Cincinnati Bearcats  (American #2; East #2)

#50	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#54  Success:#45  Overall:#54
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Lost to Virginia Tech 33-17 (Military)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #33 | USA #51 | Lindy's #42 | Athlon #40 | Steele #55 | ESPN #50
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: <1%

Another year, another 9- or 10-win season for the Bearcats.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #32 (raw) #32 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #18 (adjusted)

Gunner Kiel lived up to his name last year and the passing attack should be stronger due to impressive depth at the receiver position.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #13 (raw) #12 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #27
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #8 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #27

Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel (3,254 yards, 31 TDs, 13 int) got off to a rousing start as Cincy's QB last year, with great backup work by Munchie Legaux (574 yards, 3:1) who departs after a solid career here. The team's top six receivers are all back led by Shaq Washington (761 yards), Mekale McKay (725 yards), and Chris Moore (673). Protection was great last year (18 sacks) considering the nearly 500 attempts. Cincy's passing game will again be strong under Kiel, maybe even in the top 10.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #74 (raw) #73 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #72 (adj.)

The passing game dominated last year but the ground game wasn't non-existent. Carries were split between Mike Boone (650 yards) and Rod Moore (618). The offensive line returns three starters, Parker Ehinger, Justin Murray, and Dayshawn Bond. With Boone (6.4 average to Moore's 4.3) back and Hosey Williams (140 yards; 655 in '13) and Tion Green (118; 412 in '13) both back from injuries, they should easily cover for Moore's lost production.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #100    Pass Defense  per-game: #107   Per-attempt: #105
Defense 5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #73 (raw) #87 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #26	'14 picks: #106
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #87 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #66	'15 picks: #73

Cincy's defense gets weaker up front, but the pass defense should improve, leaving the entire thing basically a wash. Three of four starters depart from the defensive line including Terrell Hartsfield (9 sacks), and along with the loss of two starting linebackers—Jeff Luc (#1 tackler w/134, 6.5 sacks) and Nick Temple (#3 w/113 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) that spells trouble for their pass rush. The secondary returns three starters including Zach Edwards (121 tackles) plus they get 2013 starter Adrian Witty back for a 6th year. Look for teams to run on the Bearcats a lot unless they can prove themselves in the trenches.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Sam Geraci (39.4 average) is back with Andrew Gantz who made 16 of 20 field goals last year.
• Return Game:  Receivers Shaq Washington (6.1 average on punts) and Johnny Holton (20.6 on kickoffs) are both back.
• Turnovers projection:  Cincy's defense should have more interceptions this year with a reloaded secondary. They may have less luck on fumbles, however. We see Keil throwing about the same amount of interceptions, as his ratio got worse after a great start, and since his pick rate was pretty low anyway.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #89 (COOL)
Tommy Tuberville is a pretty impulsive coach (quit Auburn, go to Texas Tech, switch to Cincinnati...) but he may have found home here. After back-to-back 9-win seasons he's pretty safe and sound, though Cincy did have 10-win seasons 5 of the 6 previous years.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #55          2014 Recruiting Rank: #50
This year's class is similar to last year's in ranking, and in the American Athletic Conference is 2nd only to Memphis.

2014 Recap
The short summary is, Cincinnati was 2-3 then won 7 straight games. The Bearcats started with two wins over MAC teams Toledo and Miami, then got crushed badly by much better competition—first Ohio State, 50-28, then a surprising 10-3 Memphis team crushed them 41-14. Their defense folded at Miami, too, and they lost 55-34. Playing hapless SMU couldn't have come at a better time for the Bearcats, who took advantage to the tune of 41-3. 4-8 USF and 3-9 Tulane were a step up, and that made them ready to take on East Carolina; Cincy won 54-46. UConn was another blowout win and Cincinnati completed the sweep by edging Temple and Houston. Going back to stronger competition, they lost to Virginia Tech 33-17 in the Military Bowl to end up 9-4.

Last year's prediction: By our own measure, our ranking for Cincinnati—#55—was spot on, as they ended up #54 in Strength. We projected an 8-4 record so were off by one win. Game-by-game, though, we had 9 wins for the Bearcats, and missed only the Memphis loss and the Houston win.

2015 Outlook

Cincinnati 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Alabama A&M	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Temple	47%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Miami OH	86%	W
9/24	Thu	@	*Memphis	43%	L
10/1	Thu	vs.	Miami FL	51%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Brigham Young	58%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	92%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	87%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Houston	63%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	90%	W
11/20	Fri	@	*South Florida	80%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*East Carolina	64%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

Cincinnati should be just as good this year and their schedule without major pitfalls, meaning that a very good year could be in store if they take care of business (and have a little luck).

The early part of the schedule is critical. Alabama A&M and, in a less literal sense, Miami of Ohio should be guarantees. But Temple at home and Memphis on the road are close calls that could determine just how good the season is. Similarly, Miami (Florida) at home looks like a tossup and BYU on the road could be trouble, but they need those wins to have a breakthrough season.

The second half of the season gets much easier and is composed of many of the less-threatening members of the AAC. Houston and East Carolina will provide a challenge, the others should not. Thus, even if they start out a disappointing 2-4, things should finish up much like they did last year.

In the end we have Cincinnati around 9-3 again, assuming they split on some of the closer games. But if you notice that the toughest challenge on their schedule is close to a 50/50 game, there's no reason why the Bearcats couldn't run the table. It would take a lot of consistency so we give them only about a 1% chance of doing so, but it should be a goal going into the season. If they make it to 6-0, their odds go up to about 25% but the downside is, no one on their schedule gives them much clout to get into the Playoff regardless of how well they finish. The Group of Five's "Access Bowl" spot on New Year's Day is likely the best they can do.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #51 Memphis Tigers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Memphis Tigers  (American #3; West #1)

#51	2014 Results	AP #25 USA #25	Strength:#41  Success:#36  Overall:#42
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat BYU 55-48ot (Miami Beach)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP NR | USA NR | Lindy's #40 | Athlon #59 | Steele #64 | ESPN #7
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: <1%

Memphis' offense should be even better but losses on defense hurt the Tigers.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #27 (raw) #42 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #22 (adjusted)

The Tigers could have a top 25 level offense in 2015.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #58 (raw) #60 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #19
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #40 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #10

Paxton Lynch (3,031 yards, 22 TDs, 9 int) is back and has all of his top six targets with him—except  Keiwone Malone (#1 w/555 yards). Fortunately the ball was spread around pretty evenly, and Mose Frazier (506 yards, #1 in receptions) is back and the field is deep. Protection was great last year—16 sacks—and might be even better as they lose just one starter. Lynch should easily top 3,000 yards again.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #40 (raw) #64 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #60 (adj.)

Memphis has four players who gained 200+ yards back this year but Brandon Hayes (949 yards) is not one of them. With Hayes gone the job is up in the air. Will it be #5 Doroland Dorceus (237 yards)? Or #3 Sam Craft (331)? Why not #2 Jarvis Cooper (378)? (QB Lynch was #4 with 321 net). Sure looks like a running-back-by-committee year, but production might be better behind an offensive line that returns all but one starter. Two are seniors—Tyler Uselton and Taylor Fallin—and they also add grad transfer Ryan Mack who started half-time at Louisville last year (full-time in 2013).

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #44    Pass Defense  per-game: #92   Per-attempt: #31
Defense 3 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #48 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #49	'14 picks: #14
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #86 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #55	'15 picks: #75

As good as the offense looks the defense is its opposite. Only one starter is back in the D-Line (3-4), and at linebacker they lose three starters including top tackler Tank Jakes (6 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss). Interestingly of their sack leaders is LB Genard Avery (5 sacks) who doesn't even start. The secondary loses Bobby McCain (5 interceptions) and Bakari Hollier (10 pass breakups); last year's 17 interceptions will be hard to match. Overall 7 of the top 8 tacklers are gone from 2014, and the defense is going to be a big question mark entering 2015. They have a new defensive coordinator and he has his work cut out for him.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Tigers return both kicker Jake Elliot (21 of 32 FG last year) and punter Spencer Smith (40.3 average).
• Return Game:  The Tigers lose all of their top return men from 2014 including main kickoff returner Joe Craig (22.4 average) and punt returner Keiwone Malone (7.7 average).
• Turnovers projection:  As mentioned, we don't think Memphis will manage close to 17 interceptions on defense this year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #114 (COLD)
Justin Fuente is riding high at Memphis following a 10-win season. Even his first two years—4-8 and 3-9—were successes compared to they previous three seasons of 2, 1, and 2 wins.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #36          2014 Recruiting Rank: #83
Justin Fuente brings in a fantastic recruiting class that ranks #1 in the American Athletic Conference. Part of its quality is quantity—over 30 recruits—but there are lots of consensus 3-stars that will pay dividends for years to come. No doubt a 10-win season helped spur interest in the program.

2014 Recap 
Early in the 2014 campaign, the Tigers blanked Austin Peay 63-., hung with UCLA for the whole game before losing 42-35, beat MTSU soundly 36-17, and lost respectably to Ole Miss 24-3. Their best moment was beating Cincinnati on the road 41-14, and their worst was in the next game, losing to Houston at home 28-24. After that the schedule was easy and the results predictable, and they won 6 straight. The wild win over BYU was marred by the even wilder brawl that followed, and resulted in a reported 12 suspensions for the first games this year.

Last year's prediction: We thought we were getting pretty crazy with our Memphis prediction: From 3-9 to 7-5, and jumping from #92 to #70 nationally. But the Tigers blew that away finishing #41 and 9-3 in the regular season. In the game-by-game picks though we were pretty darn close, missing only the Cincy win.

2015 Outlook

Memphis 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Missouri State	88%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Kansas	93%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Bowling Green	83%	W
9/24	Thu	vs.	*Cincinnati	57%	W
10/2	Fri	@	*South Florida	79%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	Mississippi	17%	L
10/23	Fri	@	*Tulsa	79%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	88%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Navy	80%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Houston	61%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Temple	28%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*SMU	95%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

We have the Tigers projected to dip to 8-4, but matching 9-3 or even jumping to 10-2 isn't far-fetched at all as Memphis plays a somewhat easier schedule this year.

Even though they were just 4-8 in the FCS, Missouri State at home might be a bigger challenge than Kansas on the road, mainly because 6 suspended players will miss the first half of the game and most will be back for the 2nd. We think the Tigers can take Bowling Green, too, and this time we favor them over Cincinnati, though just slightly.

After South Florida the Tigers host Mississippi and that is their toughest challenge. Ole Miss won 24-3 last year, and we expect more scoring this time but roughly the same result. The last six games are mostly easier ones but this time around we don't predict a 6-game sweep to end the season. Temple is probably good enough to beat Memphis this year after losing 16-13 in 2014.

Still, that's only two games where Memphis is a clear underdog, and the cumulative projection is right between 8 and 9 wins. How the defense plays will probably determine whether or not Memphis can match/surpass last season's success, or take a small step back.

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