SportsRatings: College Football

2015 Pre-season Rankings: #1 Ohio State Buckeyes

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Ohio State Buckeyes  (Big Ten #1; East #1)

#1	2014 Results	AP #1 USA #1	Strength:#2  Success:#1  Overall:#1
		Record: 14-1	Bowl: Beat Alabama 42-35 (Sugar) Beat Oregon 42-20 (Championship)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #1 | USA #1 | Lindy's #1 | Athlon #1 | Steele #1 | ESPN #1
		Record: 12-0	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 78%

The suspense is over. Our #1 team, far and away, is Ohio State. Just like last year, when the defending national champ was the overwhelming consensus #1. That should at least give hope to other schools.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #5 (raw) #3 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #2 (adjusted)

There are at least four Heisman trophy candidates on Ohio State's offense, and one of them is going to end up being a 2nd stringer.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #53 (raw) #46 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #52
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #22 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #40

JT Barrett (2,834 yards, 34 TDs, 10 int) replaced Braxton Miller (2,094 yards, 24 TDs, 7 int in 2013) before the season started, only to be hurt himself. In came Cardale Jones (860 yards, 7 TDs, 2 int) to almost flawlessly lead them to the national title. Facing a triple quarterback controversy, Miller moved to wide receiver and no one knows whether Barrett or Jones will start this year, only that Ohio State might be the deepest at dual-threat quarterback in the history of college football. They're set at receiver, too, despite the loss of #1 Devin Smith (931 yards, 12 TDs). They have #2 Michael Thomas (799 yards, 9 TDs), #3 Jalin Marshall (499, 6) and the #4, 5, 6, and 7 pass catchers back as well as Miller joining the crew. Pass protection was a bit iffy last year (28 sacks) but with four O-Line starters back things should improve. Overall look for a stronger passing game; last year's wasn't overwhelming but this year it should rank in the top 25.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #9 (raw) #7 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #2 (adj.)

Buckeye sophomore Ezekiel Elliot (1,878 yards, 18 TDs) ran over everybody last year and those he didn't, JT Barrett ran past (938 yards, 11 TDs, 5.5 average). If Barrett doesn't start, Cardale Jones had 296 yards (4.1 average). #3 Curtis Samuel (383) is back, too, but moves to receiver, and of course Braxton Miller topped 1,000 yards rushing in 2013 and those two could be used from the line of scrimmage at times. The offensive line returns starters Jacoby Boren, Taylor Decker, Pat Elflein, and Billy Price. Ohio State should be back to where they were in 2013 when they were #2 in adjusted ground yardage.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #9    Pass Defense  per-game: #41   Per-attempt: #11
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #23 (raw) #15 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #12	'14 picks: #6
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #10 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #7	'15 picks: #4

OSU's front four returns two starters, losing Michael Bennett (7 sacks) but returning star Joey Bosa (13.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker starters Joshua Perry (124 tackles) and Darron Lee (7.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) are back. Three starter return to the secondary; they lose Doran Grant (5 interceptions) but get Vonn Bell (6 interceptions) and Eli Apple (10 pass breakups) back. Pretty straightforward, and with the team's top four tacklers returning we see the defense improving to reach the top 10.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Cameron Johnson (45.1 average) and kicker Sean Nuremberger (13 of 20 field goals) are both back.
• Return Game:  Last year's #3 receiver Jalin Marshall is back to field punts again; he had an 11.8 average and one touchdown return. #4 receiver Dontre Wilson averaged 24.0 on kickoffs and is also back.
• Turnovers projection:  We end up showing little or no change here.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #127 (COLD)
Urban Meyer is nearly our "coldest" coach, meaning of course farthest away from the hot seat. Three years of 12 or more wins per year, punctuated by winning the first College Football Playoff will do that.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #9          2014 Recruiting Rank: #5
Meyer continues to recruit well, one of the few teams outside the SEC to compete with those teams in year-to-year class ranking. This year's top recruit is linebacker Justin Hilliard from Cincinnati.

2014 Recap
Ohio State's Playoff chances took a hit before the season even began when Braxton Miller was lost for the year. JT Barrett started with a 34-17 warm up against Navy, but the Buckeyes lost at home to Virginia Tech 35-21—a real, tangible hit to their Playoff hopes. Trying to recover, they racked up blowout wins over the likes of Kent State (66-0), Cincinnati (50-28), Maryland (52-24), and Rutgers (56-17), but almost blew it all at Penn State, winning 31-24 in double overtime. The important test for the Buckeyes came at Michigan State, and they passed with flying colors, winning 49-37. Even after winning 10 straight Ohio State's odds for making the Playoff were slim, especially after limp showings against Indiana and Michigan. The Wisconsin game changed everything, though. The team lost Barrett, but even without him they beat the Badgers 59-0 in what was certainly the single most impressive win of the college football season. The Committee pushed out the pesky small-time TCU program as the Buckeyes claimed the #4 spot. And in the Sugar Bowl Ohio State again proved resilient and beat #1 seed Alabama 43-35. Ohio State continued to roll behind Cardale Jones and overwhelmed Oregon, 42-20 to win a national title that at many times during the season—and even before it started—seemed a lost dream.

Last year's prediction: Because we had the great "advantage" of revising our previews up to the week before the season started, we ranked Ohio State the lowest of anyone. They were #8 before revising after Braxton Miller's injury and #17 afterward. We projected a 9-3 season and specified losses to Maryland(?) and Michigan State. Neither happened. Instead Ohio State rode a backup quarterback through the regular season at 11-1 and then a third-stringer to the Big Ten and national titles.

2015 Outlook

Ohio State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sun	@	Virginia Tech	82%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	99%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	99%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	99%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Indiana	99%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	99%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	97%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Rutgers	98%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	98%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Illinois	99%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	93%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Michigan	93%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 12-0  Undefeated: 62%

Now this is getting ridiculous. Ohio State is so far ahead of every other team—and in particular, every other team in the Big Ten—that they end up with a greater than 50% chance of going unbeaten.

Their opener against Virginia Tech is judged their toughest game for three reasons. One, Virginia Tech is one of their highest ranked foes; two, it's a road game; and three, they'll be missing several players (DE Joey Bosa, and last year's #3, #4, and #5 receivers) which takes their rating down between 4 and 5 points. It's almost enough to make the game competitive.

But if they win in Blacksburgh it's smooth sailing for the next 9 weeks if they don't get bored and/or overconfident. Hawaii and Northern Illinois barely register a blip of a chance; Western Michigan, Indiana, and Maryland a tiny bit more; then Penn State, Rutgers, and Minnesota have some small measure of hope. Finally Illinois, who lost their coach a week before the season starts, gets their chance. That might be one of the more interesting of OSU's games, like watching a rat try to kill a lion. Who knows, it might end up being one of their closest calls.

The last two games show of modicum of competitiveness. Michigan State is the best team they'll play all year but the game is in Columbus. Then Michigan is on the road and is a rivalry game, but the Wolverines aren't going to be top 25 level yet—we don't think. So both games end up at about the same level of futility.

If Ohio State cruises through the schedule as suggested they'll be in the Big Ten championship game against the West champs (Nebraska? Wisconsin? Minnesota?) but it won't matter at all. They'll be on their way to the College Football Playoff where they'll finally face some proper competition (and by our numbers, by heavily favored to win).

Our projections last year showed Florida State, then the defending national champs, almost as much of a favorite to repeat as Ohio State is this year. The Seminoles did finish 12-0, but they had close calls in half their games and basically weren't even close to being as good as we'd projected. It's possible the same thing could happen with Ohio State; at the very least there will be a few close games to make things interesting. And even if they do cruise untouched into the Playoff, remember the 2006 Ohio State team, that started a consensus #1 and held that ranking all year—only to be blasted by Florida in the BCS title game. The interesting thing about 2015 will be finding teams #2, #3, and #4 to challenge the Buckeyes.

 

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #2 Georgia Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Georgia Bulldogs  (SEC #1; East #1)

#2	2014 Results	AP #9 USA #9	Strength:#5  Success:#13  Overall:#5
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Louisville 37-14 (Belk)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #9 | USA #9 | Lindy's #10 | Athlon #10 | Steele #7 | ESPN #6
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 27%

Does it count as a surprise pick to put Georgia #2 ? It sure seems like no one else really considers the Bulldogs a threat to break into the College Football Playoff this year, but it makes sense to pick someone from the SEC East, who emerges from the rubble after the West teams have killed each other off.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #8 (raw) #5 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #5 (adjusted)

Georgia has a new offensive coordinator, and when there are changes in key positions like coordinator or coach, we try to estimate what effect that will have on game tempo, and run/pass split. Interestingly, someone else already did that for Georgia so we just used his numbers; long story short, more passing, slightly faster tempo. Our own conclusion is that the Bulldog offense remains just as potent despite quarterback concerns.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #91 (raw) #78 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #21
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #58 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #19

Hutson Mason (2,168 yards, 21 TDs, 4 int) didn't have to be a star in the Georgia offense; his role was to be moderately productive while avoiding turnovers and handing the ball off. In other words, a game manager. To replace him, that's all they need, and it looks like they've settled on Virginia transfer Greyson Lambert (1,632 yards, 10 TDs, 11 int). His numbers don't exactly fit the Mason mold—including a 59% completion rate to Mason's 68%—but they'll take what they can get. The team's top two receivers are gone including Chris Conley (657 yards), leaving tight end Jeb Blazevich (269) the leading returnee. Justin Scott-Wesley (311 yards in '13) was coming back but has considered quitting football instead. None of this sounds terribly promising, but remember that production was low last year and they should be throwing it more often, and protection should be very good.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #12 (raw) #9 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #6 (adj.)

Nick Chubb (1,594 yards, 14 TDs) led the team as a freshman due to Todd Gurley (911 yards, 9 TDs) being suspended then injured. Chubb won't be alone now that Gurley's gone; two other backs (combined 640 yards) are back and Keith Marshall (759 yards in '12) is back. The offensive line returns starters Kolton Houston, John Theus, Greg Pyke, and Brandon Kublanow. Even if they pass the ball a bit more the run is going to be the team's offensive machine.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #37    Pass Defense  per-game: #12   Per-attempt: #6
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #16 (raw) #13 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #61	'14 picks: #21
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #18 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #33	'15 picks: #41

The problem with Georgia's defense is the line, where all three starters are gone. To help matters there linebacker Jordan Jenkins (5 sacks) will sometimes play defensive end, but he'll also play any of the linebacker positions joining Leonard Floyd (6 sacks). The corps loses top tacklers Amarlo Herrera (115 tackles) and Ramik Wilson (110 tackles) but adds UAB transfer Jake Ganus (6 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss). The secondary is in great shape with essentially all four starters returning. So while the defense should be better than ever against the pass, there is weakness up front. Overall the defense might be a bit weaker.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Marshall Morgan (16 of 21 FG) is back along with punter Collin Barber (39.3 average).
• Return Game:  Isaiah McKenzie averaged 12.1 yards per punt return and 28.1 per kickoff, with 3 touchdown returns; he's back. Departing RB Todd Gurley also had a kickoff touchdown return.
• Turnovers projection:  Georgia's turnover situation doesn't look good. They had more luck than can be expected on fumbles; Greyson Lambert is much more interception-prone than Hutson Mason was; and the defense doesn't look poised to match last year's 16 picks.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #67 (MILD)
Georgia fans continue to be lukewarm, on-balance, toward Mark Richt, even after reaching double-digits in the win column nine times out of 14. There is the sentiment that they should be even better, or just once have won a national title. It might be true that he doesn't get as much out of talent as he should; or, it just might be that he hasn't had that one great season just due to plain luck.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #3          2014 Recruiting Rank: #11
As mentioned, recruiting is a double-edged sword for Richt these days. If he doesn't do well people will ask why the hell isn't a school like Georgia recruiting well? And if he does recruit well—like this year, and last year, and the year before that—people wonder why the Bulldogs haven't won a national title. This year's top recruits are defensive tackle Trent Thompson and wide receiver Terry Godwin.

2014 Recap
Georgia was a very unpredictable, even schizophrenic team last year. Their first game, beating Clemson 45-21, was fantastic offensively, as the Tigers allowed just one other opponent over 20 points. They followed that with a pedestrian 38-35 loss to South Carolina. Beating Troy 66-0 was another offensive marvel. Two average wins followed (Tennessee by 3, Vandy 44-17). Beating Missouri 34-0 was clearly off the charts defensively, just as scoring 45 on Arkansas was offensively. Naturally the Bulldogs followed with the ugly 38-20 loss to Florida. In game 9 they score 63 on Kentucky; in game 10 they held Auburn to 7 points. But two games later, they lost to Georgia Tech 30-24 in overtime. Against Louisville the "good" Georgia came out to play and won, 37-14.

Last year's prediction: Last year we projected a 10-2 season while favoring the Bulldogs in every game. We had them #7, and considering they finished #9 in the polls that was about right. No one was very far off in predicting Georgia's season, since they have the talent to be in the top ten but usually don't enter into the national title picture.

2015 Outlook

Georgia 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	99%	W
9/12	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	95%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	94%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Southern U.	100%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	68%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Tennessee	53%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	90%	W
10/31	Sat	N	*Florida	85%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	92%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Auburn	69%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	98%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	73%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 11%

Remarkably, this is the third straight year in which we favor the Bulldogs in every game. That's not the same thing as saying "we favor them to win every game" because we don't—we expect them to go 10-2, based on the odds we show for each game above.

But yes, we favor them in each game. But even though they are our #2 team, that doesn't mean that there aren't some very close games. The month of September should be a cakewalk for the Bulldogs, as they feast on ULM, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and finally the easiest game of all, Southern University.

But come October they're thrown into the fire. They host Alabama which we see as a tough home win. Then they face Tennessee, whom we think is on par with the Tide this year, and that game is in Knoxville. It's basically a tossup as we see it. And given the chance for a letdown after the big Bama game—win or lose—the Tennessee game looks like a classic 'trap'.

They certainly can't overlook Missouri, rival Florida, or Kentucky. They should beat all of those teams, but if they are undefeated they'll get each team's best shot and if they get cocky at all it's over. They end with Auburn and Georgia Tech on the road, both tough propositions, split up be Georgia Southern at home. In some ways the Georgia Southern game is a good thing, as they can prepare for two weeks for the triple-option prior to facing Georgia Tech.

If Georgia wins the SEC East, they'll face someone like Alabama in the conference championship game. It doesn't really matter—every team from the West is great this year. That fact, and the several tough games in their own conference, keep Georgia's Playoff hopes muted even as our #2 team in the nation. To get there you need to be consistent, and if this year's team is like last year's it's going to be tough. Still, there is going to be an SEC representative, and our pick for that, one way or another, is Georgia. The fact that the SEC championship is played in Atlanta doesn't exactly hurt.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #3 TCU Horned Frogs

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

TCU Horned Frogs  (Big Twelve #1)

#3	2014 Results	AP #3 USA #3	Strength:#1  Success:#5  Overall:#3
		Record: 12-1	Bowl: Beat Mississippi 42-3 (Peach)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #2 | USA #2 | Lindy's #2 | Athlon #5 | Steele #2 | ESPN #4
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 37%

Last year TCU ended the season at #1 in Strength, suggesting they were the true best team in the country, but they couldn't prove it: a 3-point loss to Baylor kept them out of the College Football Playoff. This year they'll try to get there with a team that's almost as good.

Offense 10 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #1 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #1 (adjusted)

TCU had the #1 offense when adjusted for their schedule; with 10 starters returning we show it getting even better.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #7 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #45
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #2 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #28

Trevone Boykin (3,901 yards, 33 TDs, 10 interceptions) was phenomenal last year and if it's possible for him to do better this year he will with 8 of his top 10 targets back. Josh Doctson (1,018 yards, 11 TDs), Kolby Listenbee (753 yards), and Deante Gray (582 yards) all return. With four starters returning to the offensive line QB protection should be even better. Boykin will be a Heisman frontrunner from the start and he has a great chance of winning it.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #36 (raw) #33 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #16 (adj.)

Leading rusher Aaron Green (922 yards, 8 TDs) is back, and of course QB Trevone Boykin had 707 net yards himself (8 TDs). They do lose #3 rusher BJ Catalon, who had 493 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. The offensive line should be even better this year as only one starter is gone. Back are Brady Foltz, Jamelle Naff, Joey Hunt, and Halapoulivaati Vaitai—all seniors—as well as Aviante Collins who started most of 2013. The Horned Frogs should be very hard to stop on the ground.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #18    Pass Defense  per-game: #31   Per-attempt: #16
Defense 5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #9 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #16	'14 picks: #1
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #29 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #10	'15 picks: #6

Three defensive line starters are back for the Frogs including James McFarland (7 sacks) and Terrell Lathan (5.5 sacks), and along with backup Mike Tuaua (5 sacks) they should help form an even stronger pass rush. They also get Nebraska transfer Aaron Curry. The problems start at linebacker, however, where both starters—the teams two top tacklers—are gone: Paul Dawson (136 tackles, 6 sacks, 14 tackles for loss) and Marcus Mallet (100 tackles, 10 tackles for loss). The secondary loses three starters including Chris Hackett (7 interceptions) and Kevin White (11 pass breakups); we can't see the Frogs matching their nation-leading 26 interceptions. Overall they lose 6 of last year's 7 top tacklers and we expect a marked decrease in the quality of the defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both punter Ethan Perry (39.2 average) and kicker Jaden Oberkrom (22 of 27 field goals) are back for their senior years.
• Return Game:  Both Cameron Echols-Luper and BJ Catalon had kick return touchdowns last year, but both are gone this year.
• Turnovers projection:  As we mentioned in defense, we don't see TCU coming close to their 26 interceptions from last year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #109 (COLD)
Gary Patterson stumbled in 2012 at 7-6 then fell to 4-8, but he brought the team back last year to 12-1 and with that, everything is right as far as he's concerned. They had a major drug scandal a few years ago that seems to have completely blown over by now. Patterson showed some courage in hiring offensive coordinators Doug Meachem and Sonny Cumbie to drastically change the offense last year. It worked.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #51          2014 Recruiting Rank: #44
What's amazing about TCU's continued success is that it comes from players who are, for the most part, just above average for the FBS. They aren't getting the 5-star players and normally, not even the 4-stars. When the team was going 11-1 in the C-USA or Mountain West that was one thing, but doing it in the Big Twelve is pretty amazing.

2014 Recap
TCU played very well in its first three games, but it was hard to gauge whether they were much improved from last year's 4-8, or whether Samford (48-14), Minnesota (30-7), and SMU (56-0) just sucked. It turned out that yes, TCU was far, far better than last year. The 37-33 Oklahoma win put them on the map, but then in the last 11 minutes of the Baylor game they coughed away a 21 point lead and lost, 61-58, in one of the wildest games ever. Remarkably, instead of feeling sorry for themselves they took it to Oklahoma State 42-9 and then scored 82 on Texas Tech. West Virginia gave them all they could handle, but they blasted Kansas State 41-20. Against Kansas they needed every one of the points they got to win 34-30, but next week they bombed Texas 48-10. They beat Iowa State 55-3 and fell from #3 to #6 in the Committee's rankings. Perhaps motivated by this snub, they obliterated Mississippi 42-3 in the Peach Bowl. Their average performance ranked higher than anyone else's in the end, but they weren't able to prove they were the best team.

Last year's prediction: We really thought we were going out on a limb for TCU, projected a rise in Strength from #43 to #28 and an improvement from 4-8 to 8-4. After all, that doesn't happen very often. In the game-by-game chart we favored the Horned Frogs in 9 games.  But TCU blew away our projection and finished 11-1 in the regular season. The big reason was the offense; we'd predicted a jump from #67 to #38—and they jumped to #1 instead.

2015 Outlook

TCU 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	@	Minnesota	83%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Stephen F. Austin	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	SMU	99%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	86%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Texas	93%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Kansas State	88%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Iowa State	96%	W
10/29	Thu	vs.	*West Virginia	89%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	85%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	99%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	57%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Baylor	63%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 15%

As one of our top-rated teams, it's not a surprise that we favor the Horned Frogs in every game. Some of the relative percentages might seem curious, however.

For one, the game at Minnesota ranks as perhaps their toughest game until late November. It's almost matched by games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, and Kansas State and West Virginia aren't far behind.

The easiest games are of course, Stephen F. Austin, SMU, Iowa State, and Kansas. Those four are essentially gimmes. Even Texas looks like a walk in the park since it's at home.

That leaves the two toughest games, and a bit surprisingly Baylor doesn't look like their biggest roadblock—that would be Oklahoma in Norman. The Sooners will be fired up to ruin TCU's season, and note the turnaround: only 6 days later they face Baylor, who is coming off playing at Oklahoma State.

TCU may be one of the nation's best teams, but beating two top-10-level opponents in a 6-day span is not easy. If they mess up even once and go 11-1, there is of course no guaranteed entry to the Playoff, though at 12-0 it's pretty inconceivable they'd be left out. Going 10-2 in a conference with no championship game probably doesn't get you in.

We're pretty confident TCU will be 10-0 going into Oklahoma, and that there will be two great games played over the next (almost) week.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #4 Baylor Bears

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Baylor Bears  (Big Twelve #2)

#4	2014 Results	AP #7 USA #8	Strength:#6  Success:#11  Overall:#6
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Lost to Michigan State 42-41 (Cotton)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #4 | USA #4 | Lindy's #5 | Athlon #3 | Steele #5 | ESPN #3
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 35%

Baylor knows they have to go undefeated to be assured of a Playoff berth; the big problem is that they play TCU on the road this year.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #1 (raw) #2 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #3 (adjusted)

The Bears return almost all the pieces of their high-powered offense except for Bryce Petty. With an already-trained replacement the transition should be smooth and the offense almost as good.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #4 (raw) #2 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #51
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #6 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #32

Some people wonder whether Baylor can replace Bryce Petty (3,885 yards, 29 TDs, 7 int), but it wasn't long ago that people wondered if Baylor could survive post-RGIII. Seth Russell (804 yards, 8 TDs, 1 int) has already proven himself running this offense, and he has two 1,000 yard receivers coming back. Corey Coleman (1,119 yards, 11 touchdowns) is back with KD Cannon (1,030 yards, 8 TDs). #3 Antwan Goodley (830 yards) departs but Jay Lee (633) returns. The offensive line returns almost everyone and protections should be even better than last year. Russell is familiar with the offense and has a great supporting cast; the passing game should remain near the top.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #30 (raw) #31 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #12 (adj.)

Baylor's top three rushers return, including Shock Linwood (1,252 yards, 16 TDs) and Johnny Jefferson (524 yards). The offensive line returns starters Spencer Drango, Blake Muir, and Kyle Fuller, with half-time starters Jarrell Broxton and Pat Colbert, plus 2013 starter Desmine Hilliard. The ground game should be very good this season, and Seth Russell (185 yards, 5.8 ave) adds more than Bryce Petty (101, 1.2 ave) did.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #25    Pass Defense  per-game: #73   Per-attempt: #65
Defense 9 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #51 (raw) #38 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #17	'14 picks: #45
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #12 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #5	'15 picks: #19

Baylor's defensive line returns all four starters including Shawn Oakman (11 tacks, 8.5 tackles for loss), KJ Smith (5 sacks), and Andrew Billings (9.5 tackles for loss). They do lose linebacker Bryce Hager (114 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) in the 4-2-5, but four of five starters in the secondary are back. Xavien Howard (13 pass breakups) and Ryan Reid (12 pass breakups) should help the Bears exceed last year's 13 picks. Overall 17 of the top 19 tacklers are back; we expect the defense to improve quite a bit.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Chris Callahan (18 of 26 FG) is back but punter Spencer Roth (43.4 average) is gone.
• Return Game:  Levi Norwood departs after averaging 5.8 yards per punt return and 19.7 on kickoffs. Corey Coleman is back, and he had a touchdown return on a kickoff in 2013.
• Turnovers projection:  We see the defense getting more picks, but that might be more than offset by increased QB interceptions. Bryce Petty threw just 7 last season; Seth Russell has thrown 4 in 128 attempts, though just 1 last year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #119 (COLD)
Art Briles has certainly earned his keep at Baylor, building the program from a football afterthought into a powerhouse. The recent controversy over Sam Ukwuachu, who was convicted of rape after transferring from Boise State, might raise questions, but it seems that if anyone was in the wrong it was the Baylor review board that initially cleared Ukwuachu of wrongdoing.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #61          2014 Recruiting Rank: #13
This year's class is surprisingly low-ranked compared to last year's, despite following a very successful season. To be fair the class is quite a bit smaller than last year's. And the program isn't quite Oregon yet; it took the Ducks a while to become a consistent recruiting power.

2014 Recap
Baylor did its typical tiptoe through the cupcakes in the early season, scoring 45 or more points until Texas, who finished with the nation's #1 pass defense, held them to 28 (Texas scored 7). The next game was one for the ages, as TCU and Baylor combined fror 119 points and the Bears overcame a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to win 61-58. They lost the very next game to West Virginia, 41-27, however, and that—and their weak non-conference schedule—would ultimately hold them out of the Playoff. For a long time it looked like they'd remain ranked below TCU, but their final wins included three bowl teams including #11 Kansas State, as well as a 48-14 blowout of Oklahoma. They beat Kansas much more easily than TCU did, but had much more trouble with Texas Tech (48-46) when Bryce Petty was knocked out of the game and their big lead almost vanished. The 38-27 K-State win was enough to put them ahead of TCU but not enough to make the top four. They were more angry with their own conference for promoting TCU as a co-champion than they ultimately were with the Committee. Instead of the Playoff they went to the Cotton Bowl and led Michigan State by 20 points in the 4th quarter. The Spartans did to them what they'd done to TCU, and the Bears lost 42-41.

Last year's prediction: We had the Bears #5 and projected a 10-2 record. Sound familiar? We're happy with last year's pick just because everyone else put Baylor #10 or so. In the game-by-game picks we favored the Bears in every game, and they were one of our four favorites to make the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately they were #5.

2015 Outlook

Baylor 2015 schedule & forecast
9/4	Fri	@	SMU	99%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Lamar	100%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Rice	99%	W
10/3	Sat	N	*Texas Tech	89%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Kansas	99%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	87%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	98%	W
11/5	Thu	@	*Kansas State	86%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	69%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	82%	W
11/27	Fri	@	*TCU	37%	L
12/5	Sat	vs.	*Texas	92%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 12%

Yes, this year's prediction is much the same as last year's—nearly the same spot, same 10-2 cumulative projection. The main difference is that this year there is a game in which we do not favor the Bears to win.

Obviously it's not a non-conference game, as Baylor has made an art of scheduling the easiest possible teams outside the Big Twelve. This year is no exception as SMU, Lamar, and Rice will offer no resistance.

Another trend with Baylor's recent schedules has been that the easier teams in the Big Twelve are faced earlier, and this year it's true as well. Their first four opponents include cellar dwellers Iowa State and Kansas, as well as Texas Tech on a neutral field and West Virginia at home. Playing at Kansas State looks only marginally harder this year.

Finally in mid-November they face Oklahoma which should be a high-profile game. And after Oklahoma State on the road they have the big one: Baylor vs. TCU, the rematch, in Fort Worth this time. It's the one game we expect them to lose.

They finish against Texas and then their fate is again in the hands of the College Football Playoff Committee. If they've gone 10-2 as our odds say, they don't have much chance. If they're undefeated, they're in. At 11-1? Then it depends, like it did last year, on how many other 1-loss teams there are and whether those teams won their conference championship games. But after last year Baylor knows there's only one certain way to make it, and that's to beat everybody.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #5 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Oregon Ducks  (Pac-12 #1; North #1)

#5	2014 Results	AP #2 USA #2	Strength:#4  Success:#2  Overall:#2
		Record: 13-2	Bowl: Beat Florida State 59-20 (Rose) Lost to Ohio State 42-20 (Championship)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #7 | USA #5 | Lindy's #4 | Athlon #8 | Steele #6 | ESPN #7
		Record: 10-2	Bowl odds: 99.9%   Playoff odds: 26%

Can Oregon repeat with a trip to the College Football Playoff? At our projected 10-2 it would be tough, but we favor the Ducks to win every game and if that happens, of course they're in.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #3 (raw) #4 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #4 (adjusted)

The Oregon offensive machine is ready to take off again; they just need a pilot. Vernon Adams should be a perfect fit.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #10 (raw) #15 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #68
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #12 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #67

Marcus Mariota (4,454 yards, 42 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) added the Heisman trophy to his list of accomplishments and his departure leaves an obvious hole. But Oregon has had this problem before and every time they come up with a solution. This time it's Vernon Adams, grad transfer from FCS school Eastern Washington. Adams lit up Oregon State for 411 yards (4 TDs) in a 49-46 upset in 2013 and Washington for 475 yards (7 TDs) in a 59-52 loss last year. So what can he do with the full power of the Oregon offense behind him? The Duck receiver corps is even more insane than usual with—eventually—the top four back: Byron Marshall (1,003 yards), Darren Carrington (704 yards), Devon Allen (684), and Dwayne Stanford (639). #5 Pharoah Brown (402) is probably out for the year, Allen will miss at least some early games and Carrington is probably suspended the first five, but they get Bralon Addison (890 yards in '13) back from injury. Adams threw for 3,483 yards last year (35 TDs, 8 int) and for 4,994 yards (55 TDs, 15 int) in 2013 and he's proven himself against the very defenses he'll be facing this year.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #22 (raw) #15 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #9 (adj.)

Royce Freeman (1,365 yards, 18 TDs) is back for the Ducks, but they'll miss Marcus Mariota (770 yards) and Thomas Tyner (573) who is out with a shoulder injury. There are options; Byron Marshall (#4 w/392) could be used more here (he topped 1,000 yards in 2013). The offensive line returns just two starters, Cameron Hunt and Tyrell Crosby, but 2013 starter Tyler Johnstone is back and they get grad transfer Matt Hegarty who started last year at Notre Dame. Vernon Adams had 285 yards last year and 605 in '13 so while he's no Mariota he will contribute, and Oregon will have another strong (stronger?) ground game this year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #54    Pass Defense  per-game: #66   Per-attempt: #32
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #33 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #36	'14 picks: #77
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #26 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #25	'15 picks: #95

Two of three starters return to Oregon's defensive line including DeForest Buckner (9 tackles for loss). At linebacker Tony Washington (6 sacks) is gone but Torrodney Prevot (5 sacks) is back along with Christian French (6.5 sacks), and the Duck pass rush should be great. The secondary is an issue with just one starter back. The Ducks lose top tackler Eric Dargan (7 interceptions) and Troy Hill (18 pass breakups), and that alone puts a dent in plans for future takeaways. The defense looks weaker, but shouldn't fall far out of the top 25 (in adjusted scoring figures).

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Oregon used two placekickers last year and both are back (combined 18 of 21 field goals) along with punter Ian Wheeler (39.1 average).
• Return Game:  Charles Nelson was Oregon's #7 receiver last year (327 yards) and had 17 tackles on kick coverage. He also returned punts (15.5 average, 2 touchdowns) and kickoffs (19.0 average) himself. He's back, and so is Bralon Addison who had 2 touchdown punt returns in 2013.
• Turnovers projection:  Oregon's turnover situation is not pretty. First, they were very lucky on fumbles in 2014, both in avoiding them and in recoveries, and that's not likely to continue into 2015. In terms of interceptions, the defense had 13 and lose two players who combined for 24 pass breakups and 8 of those picks. And while Vernon Adams might match Mariota's production, he's almost certain to greatly exceed his 4 interceptions, probably by 10 or so. All of this adds up to probably the worse turnover penalty of any team compared to last year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #125 (COLD)
24 wins in two years will definitely avoid the hot seat, and Mark Helfrich has gone 11-2 and 13-2 in his two seasons here.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #19          2014 Recruiting Rank: #29
Oregon's recruiting has been picking up lately and this year is a very good one, a top 25 class that ranks right up there with a few other teams for 2nd place in the Pac-12. Defensive end Canton Kaumatule from Honolulu is the top recruit.

2014 Recap
Oregon had an early peak with the 46-27 Michigan State win and it seemed to make them complacent; they struggled at Washington State 38-31 and then lost to Arizona 31-24. The loss seemed to make them serious, and it led to a resurgence: they plowed through their schedule, saving the best for last with a 51-13 beatdown of the same Arizona team that beat them earlier in the season and a dominant 59-20 win over Florida State in the Rose Bowl. Along the way they won by an average of 27 points including a key 45-16 drubbing of Stanford. But they ran out of gas against Ohio State, with early mistakes and poor protection of Marcus Mariota leading to a 42-20 loss to end their 13-2 season.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Oregon #4 and projected a 10-2 record by cumulative odds. Game-by-game we picked the Ducks to go 11-1, losing to UCLA (they beat the Bruins 42-30, one game after losing to Arizona).

2015 Outlook

Oregon 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	98%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Michigan State	59%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Georgia State	99%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Utah	83%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Colorado	86%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	95%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Washington	95%	W
10/29	Thu	@	*Arizona State	71%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*California	83%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Stanford	67%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*USC	68%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Oregon State	99%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 10%

Oregon awkwardly starts the season against the very team Vernon Adams defected from to join the Ducks, Eastern Washington. Since they stole the team's best player it's not likely to be the same kind of shootout the other Pac-12 teams had with the Eagles. Then a week later Michigan State tries for revenge for last year's loss in Eugene, but we still favor the Ducks slightly. It will be one of the very best games of the early season for determining team rankings. Georgia State is another throwaway game before the Pac-12 starts.

The Pac-12 season looks easier than it usually does. Utah at home and Colorado on the road present roughly the same low-level threat, while Washington State and Washington probably represent even less. Arizona State will be a tough road test, and while California is good this year Oregon gets them at home. The two toughest challenges, as usual, will be Stanford and USC, but we favor the Ducks moderately in both cases. The Civil War shouldn't be a contest this year with Oregon State coming to Eugene.

Well, that doesn't sound too bad does it? While the cumulative projection is for 10 wins, Oregon is the first (i.e. lowest ranked) Power Five team we favor in all their games, and that puts them in prime position for another trip to the College Football Playoff. They'd likely face UCLA in Santa Clara for the honor. If they have a loss (or even two) it would depend a lot on who it was, of course, but three Playoff teams had a loss last year (including Oregon). We currently have their odds at 1 in 4 to make the Playoff but we may be adjusting those before the September 3 kickoff.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #6 Alabama Crimson Tide

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Alabama Crimson Tide  (SEC #2; West #1)

#6	2014 Results	AP #4 USA #4	Strength:#3  Success:#4  Overall:#4
		Record: 12-2	Bowl: Lost to Ohio State 42-35 (Sugar)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #3 | USA #3 | Lindy's #3 | Athlon #2 | Steele #3 | ESPN #2
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 4%

Could Alabama really lose 4 games for the first time since 2007? Even our projection isn't really sure, as it teeters between predicting 3 or 4 losses, and we favor the Tide in 11 of their 12 games.

Offense 2 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #19 (raw) #8 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #45 (adjusted)

Basically, this is where we would rate Alabama's offense if they were dependent on returning players only. They get lots of consideration for recruiting, which is how they end up in the top ten overall. Still, it underscores how much talent the offense loses.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #28 (raw) #18 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #17
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #82 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #22

With Blake Sims (3,487 yards, 28 TDs, 10 interceptions) gone, the guy he beat for the job last year, Jake Coker (403 yards, 4 TDs, 0 int) takes the mantle. Last pre-season he struggled learning the offense, and unlike Sims he won't have WR Amari Cooper (124 receptions, 1,727 yards, 16 TDs) to make him look good. That's not a knock on Sims—Cooper would make any QB look good. He also won't have DeAndrew White (504 yards). TE OJ Howard (#4 with 260 yards) is the leading returnee. We show a passing game cratering that's not realistic, but reflects Cooper's insane importance to the offense: he had three times as many receptions as the #2 receiver, and over 7x as many as leading returnee Howard. One big positive here is Oregon State grad transfer Richard Mullaney, who had 788 yards in 2013.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #37 (raw) #25 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #46 (adj.)

Derrick Henry (990 yards, 11 TDs) is back but TJ Yeldon (979 yards, 11 TDs) is not, and neither are the next 3 rushers including QB Blake Sims who had 350. Kenyan Drake had just 112 before breaking his leg, but he had 694 yards in 2013. The offensive line loses three starters, with Senior Ryan Kelly and sophomore Cam Robinson returning; three starters are sophomores or redshirt freshmen.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #3    Pass Defense  per-game: #27   Per-attempt: #8
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #7 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #59	'14 picks: #87
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #3 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #44	'15 picks: #64

All three starters return to Alabama's defensive line including Jonathan Allen (5.5 sacks) and we look for an improved pass rush despite the loss of "jack" linebacker Xzavier Dickson (9 sacks). Reggie Ragland (9 tackles for loss) is one of two returning linebackers. The secondary loses top tackler Landon Collins (103 tackles) but Cyrus Jones (13 pass breakups) is back. Alabama's defense is again a candidate for top scoring defense in the land, though we have them coming up just short.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  JK Scott had an incredible 48.0 punting average as a freshman; he's back, but we're not sure how he's going to top that. Kicker Adam Griffith hit 12 of 19 field goal attempts and he's back as well.
• Return Game:  Christion Jones was the team's #3 receiver and return ace; last year he averaged 8.0 and 23.0 on punts and kickoffs respectively, but he's gone.
• Turnovers projection:  Things pretty much cancel each other out here.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #117 (COLD)
Some people like to claim Nick Saban is always on the hot seat, since expectations are so high now. But whatever. When you have 7 double-digit winning seasons in a row, you will be given some leeway to rebuild if you stumble. He might be faster to fall onto the hot seat for a losing season, but he's as far away as possible right now.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #2          2014 Recruiting Rank: #2
Alabama perpetuates their dynasty through recruiting. Though we've ranked a team above them both of the last two years, they're the clear #1 over the past two seasons combined. This year's list of 5-star recruits is insane: On offense, QB Blake Barnett, RB Damien Harris, and WR Calvin Ridley. On defense, DT Daron Payne, CB Kendall Sheffield, and CB Minkah Fitzpatrick. We also count Bo Scarbrough in this class, as he greyshirted last year.

2014 Recap
Alabama struggled with West Virginia (4-8 last year) in the opener, 33-23, and had a quarterback controversy early in the season, but recovered to beat FAU and Southern Miss by 93-12 combined. They sturggled a bit with Florida before winning 42-21, then lost at Mississippi 23-17. When they only beat Arkansas 14-13 there were many who were writing them off. Maybe they heard, since they responded with a 59-0 beatdown of Texas A&M. They needed overtime to beat LSU, but got past Mississippi State and Auburn and were back in the SEC title game, where they crushed Missouri 42-13. In the Sugar Bowl they ran into an Ohio State team playing their best and lost 42-35, which was a lot better than Oregon (and certainly Wisconsin) did.

Last year's prediction: Like everyone else we ranked Alabama #2 last year, projecting an 11-1 record. They actually ended up ranked #4 in the polls and #3 in our Strength rating, so by that we were off. And we didn't show Alabama as the underdog in any given game—though at 69%, Mississippi was their least likely win according to our numbers.

2015 Outlook

Alabama 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Wisconsin	85%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Middle Tennessee	98%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	63%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	99%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Georgia	32%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	69%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	61%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	61%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*LSU	63%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	57%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	100%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Auburn	59%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

The notion that Alabama will lose 4 games seems to be debunked by the very numbers that compute the cumulative projection. After all, the most common outcome isn't even 8-4, it's 9-3 (top chart). And Alabama is of course favored in 11 of 12 games.

The one game where they are not favored? Georgia in Athens. That's significant because if Alabama reaches the SEC title game—as they usually do—they might have to face Georgia in Atlanta, which is not much different.

So that's one loss, maybe. Looking at the chart, there are actually quite a few games where the winning percentage is not all that high. In fact, there are fully six wins in the high-50s to low 60s percentile: Mississippi, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. Even though they're favored in each game, none are guaranteed wins. It's easy to see Alabama losing two of those.

That makes three possible losses. The rest of the schedule is not nearly as threatening. The opener vs. Wisconsin, you say? Wisconsin loses every bit as much as Alabama this year, and they lost to Ohio State 59-0 compared to 42-35. Maybe Arkansas? It was a 1-point game last year in Fayetteville, and while it still might be close in Tuscaloosa, that upset seems less likely. It won't be MTSU, ULM, or Charleston Southern.

So we're willing to believe 9-3, maybe—but not 8-4. Even so, that would be a poor season for the Tide relative to the last 7 years. But the problem isn't with Alabama—it's with their conference, and specifically the SEC West. When your entire division is in the top 26 of both pre-season polls, the odds of any given team having a great year are diminished.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #7 Tennessee Volunteers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Tennessee Volunteers  (SEC #3; East #2)

#7	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#24  Success:#51  Overall:#33
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Iowa 45-28 (TaxSlayer)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #25 | USA #25 | Lindy's #17 | Athlon #22 | Steele #19 | ESPN #13
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.7%   Playoff odds: 9%

Tennessee is a trendy pick this year, even making the top 25 in both polls. But that's how good they were last year. We're taking it farther than anyone else and putting Tennessee firmly in the top ten, despite some recent injuries (they were top five before that!).

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #63 (raw) #31 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #12 (adjusted)

A solid dual-threat QB, the top rusher, and every receiver under the sun return to the Tennessee offense.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #72 (raw) #52 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #120
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #31 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #116

Justin Worley (1,579 yards, 12 TDs, 8 int) started most of the season before Joshua Dobbs (1,206 yards, 9:6) took over. Worley is gone but Dobbs is back and with every relevant receiver back, things look very good. Alton 'Pig' Howard led with 618 yards, and 8 others topped 100 yards and all of them return. QB protection was a huge problem last year (43) and it won't just go away, but the large majority of those were on Worley so while Dobbs may be hurried, he is less often sacked. With all the targets available we see solid improvement.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #92 (raw) #59 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #38 (adj.)

Two of Tennessee's three main ground gainers are back: #1 Jalen Hurd (899 yards) and QB Joshua Dobbs who finished #2 with 469 net yards and 8 touchdowns. To replace #3 Marlin Lane (300 yards) they have Cincinnati grad transfer Ralph David Abernathy who had 518 yards in 2013. The offensive line returns seniors Mack Crowder and Kyler Kerbyson and sophomore Jashon Robertson, as well as a few part-time starters. They had senior Marcus Jackson back, too, until a bicep tear took him out early in fall camp. We see improvement here as well.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #52    Pass Defense  per-game: #20   Per-attempt: #29
Defense 7.5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #38 (raw) #22 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #27	'14 picks: #22
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #19 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #14	'15 picks: #30

Tennessee's pass rush should be healthy with the return of Derek Barnett (10 sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss) and Curt Maggitt (11 sacks). The Vols had two linebackers tie for top tackler honors at 101, and AJ Johnson is gone while Jalen Reeves-Maybin (9 tackles for loss) returns. Cameron Sutton (13 pass breakups) is among those back in the secondary, which is where we get the half-starter: safety LaDarrell McNeil is injured and might not return; we figure he's out for the year but list 7.5 starters because it's not official. The defense should be at least as good as it was last year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Placekicker Aaron Medley (20 of 26 field goals) is back while punter Matt Darr (42.2 average) departs. They do bring in grad transfer Nathan Renfro (41.5 ave) from Maryland.
• Return Game:  Corner Cameron Sutton averaged 11.3 yards per punt return last year and had one touchdown return. He's back along with Evan Berry (29.5 average on kickoffs). Transfer Ralph David Abernathy is a return specialist as well; he had a touchdown return in 2011.
• Turnovers projection:  We project almost no difference in turnovers this year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #38 (WARM)
Butch Jones finally got Tennessee out of 5-7 hell, but it still wasn't quite up to par for the program (almost 9 wins per year). It's enough to take him off the hot seat, but with expectations high, who knows how many wins he needs to quell the negative voices. Last year's bowl win helped a lot, though.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #5          2014 Recruiting Rank: #1
Another accomplishment Jones can point to: incredible recruiting. He may not get the very best players but he gets the most 4-star talent of anyone around, and he's had back-to-back top five classes. This year's top recruit is DT Kahlil McKenzie from California, a rare consensus 5-star for the program. All together, there are 55 3-star and above players who have joined Tennessee in the last two years. That's a lot of young talent. And it may sound like oversigning, but Jones follow the rules, or the loopholes, take your pick. “If we can find a way to sign 35, we’ll sign 35,” he has said.

2014 Recap
Tennessee started with a couple of underrated wins, beating 9-4 Utah State 38-7 and handling Arkansas State by 15. They ran into a full-strength Oklahoma team and were trounced 34-10, but played a lot better against Georgia on the road, falling 35-32. The Florida loss was even closer, 10-9. After a break against Chattanooga (45-10) it was back to losing, 34-3 to Ole Miss and 34-20 to Alabama, the latter with QB Dobbs after Worley was hurt against Mississippi. Then 3-5, a week later they finally got an SEC win over South Carolina in overtime, then blasted Kentucky 50-16. They fell to Missouri 29-21 but beat Vandy—barely—to reach bowl eligibility. Glad to finally be back at a bowl game after 3 seasons off, they blasted Iowa 45-28 in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We know a pattern when we see one, so we projected a fourth consecutive 5-7 season from the Vols. Then they had to go and break the pattern! We only ranked them #62, but we got every game on the chart correct except for South Carolina (a win that we called a loss).

2015 Outlook

Tennessee 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	99%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	63%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	100%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Florida	70%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	67%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	47%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Alabama	39%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Kentucky	74%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	89%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	North Texas	99%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Missouri	71%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	96%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.7%

Unlike most Power Five teams, the tough part of Tennessee's schedule comes in the first half of the season. No, not Bowling Green and certainly not Western Carolina. But right in the middle, games 6 and 7, when they face Georgia and Alabama back-to-back.

Those look like the only losses on Tennessee's slate. There are other early challenges, though. The Vols host Oklahoma who beat them 34-10 last year. Florida in the Swamp is always tough. Arkansas is going to be very good this year.

But all of those should fall to Tennessee if the Vols are as improved as we think. And after the two probable losses, they take on an improved Kentucky on the road, along with South Carolina and Missouri, but none are the threat of the top SEC teams. They also face North Texas and Vanderbilt, which should be near-gimmes.

The problem happens if Tennessee gets big-headed at 5-0, maybe defeats Georgia to go 6-0, and then falls to Alabama. Will a first loss of the season leave them vulnerable to disappointment and letdown losses to teams later on? Tennessee is a good team, but a young team. What happens if things don't live up to the hype they're hearing this year?

And if they're really good, to win the SEC they might have to play Alabama twice—once on the road and once in Atlanta for the championship. Which is a better problem to have than being stuck at 5 wins.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #8 LSU Tigers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

LSU Tigers  (SEC #4; West #2)

#8	2014 Results	AP #31 USA #33	Strength:#12  Success:#24  Overall:#18
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Notre Dame 31-28 (Music City)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #14 | USA #13 | Lindy's #13 | Athlon #15 | Steele #10 | ESPN #5
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.1%   Playoff odds: 5%

LSU might have the best defense in all of college football this year. But is the offense up to snuff?

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #74 (raw) #43 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #34 (adjusted)

LSU is still deciding who should play quarterback, meaning, the guy who hands the ball off to Leonard Fournette.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #116 (raw) #109 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #57
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #87 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #69

Anthony Jennings (1,611 yards, 11 TDs, 7 int) and Brandon Harris (452 yards, 6:2) battled for the QB position all last season and it's still not settled. But one way or another the passing game should at least creep out of the cellar as 5 of the top 6 in receiving yards are back including #1 Travin Dural (758 yards, 7 TDs).

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #25 (raw) #20 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #19 (adj.)

If Leonard Fournette (1,034 yards, 10 TDs) didn't quite live up to his 5-star promise last year then blame LSU's committee approach. The next two committee members, Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard, combined for 1,018 yards and both are gone, leaving Fournette more of the focus. The offensive line returns three starters, Vadal Alexander, Jerald Hawkins, and Ethan Pocic. Fournette should shine this year but may have less help, leaving production about the same.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #30    Pass Defense  per-game: #2   Per-attempt: #3
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #106	'14 picks: #92
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #1 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #112	'15 picks: #72

LSU's defense returns two starters on the defensive line including Davon Godchaux—one of three sophomores that will start this year—though they lose Danielle Hunter (11.5 tackles for loss). The linebacking corps also has two starters back; they lose top tackler Kiwon Alexander while #2 tackler Kendell Beckwith returns. The secondary is in pretty good shape though returning starter Jalen Mills needed surgery in the summer and will miss up to half the season. If none of this sounds overwhelmingly great, just remember that LSU finished #3 in scoring defense last year and, while we show them giving up a little more this year, the former #1 and #2 teams (Stanford, Ole Miss) drop off a bit more and that moves LSU to #1. Granted, it doesn't help that the Tigers also lose their defensive coordinator, so it's a prediction without a lot of confidence behind it, but there you have it.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Jamie Keehn (44.9 average) and kicker Cody Delahoussaye (11 of 15 FG) are both back.
• Return Game:  Both Tre'Davious White (10.9 average on punt returns) and Leonard Fournette (26.0 on kickoffs) had a touchdown return last year.
• Turnovers projection:  LSU's fumble luck was too good last year to probably last, but the defense should have more interceptions to balance it out.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #31 (WARM)
It must suck to coach at LSU, where if you have an 8-win season people start talking about the hot seat. Our formula reflects that mainly because of the dropoff from two 10-win seasons, and 8 wins only matches the program's long-term expectations...which have been rising. Miles always seems to have a really good year whenever the "hot seat" talk gets too hot, so watch out.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #13          2014 Recruiting Rank: #4
This year's class wasn't in the top 5 like last year's but it's still firmly in the top 25. Corner Kevin Toliver from Florida and WR Tyron Johnson from New Orleans are both consensus 5-star recruits.

2014 Recap
LSU came back to beat Wisconsin 28-24 in the opener and two shutouts later (97-0 total) it looked like the Tigers might make another NCAA championship run. But Mississippi State rained on that dream 34-29, and two games later Auburn stomped it to death 41-7. Faced with salvaging their season, the Tigers went into Florida and pulled out an unlikely 30-27 win, and two games later they did the same at home vs. Ole Miss, beating the previously undefeated Rebels 10-7. They had one last shot at greatness but fell short of Alabama in overtime. They had their own hangover loss at Arkansas, 17-0. The Tigers finished with a gut-check 23-17 road win at Texas A&M, but in the bowl game they lost to Notre Dame 31-28.

Last year's prediction: We had LSU #13, pretty much in line with everyone else, but projected only an 8-4 record due to a tough schedule. It turned out to be right, even if we didn't pick losses to Mississippi State or Arkansas on the game-by-game chart. We also gave Florida the tossup game (49%), which really was a tossup. And even though it seemed a little crazy to think LSU's passing game would fall from #41 to #110, it did fall to #109.

2015 Outlook

LSU 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	McNeese State	100%	W
9/12	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	50%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	69%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Syracuse	95%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	99%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*South Carolina	75%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Florida	82%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	92%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Alabama	37%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	65%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Mississippi	42%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	73%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.1%

LSU has a gimme game against McNeese State, then they have to travel to Mississippi State for a tossup game. Back home, they take on Auburn and we favor them despite the 41-7 loss last year. Two more easy games and the Tigers will be 5-0 if everything goes right; 4-1 if the coin flip went awry; and 3-2 if they have bad luck.

The next three games aren't that bad, though; they should be able to handle South Carolina, Florida, and Western Kentucky, a team that will certainly test their incredible pass defense. Then comes the tough finish: Games at both Alabama and Mississippi, and home stands vs. Arkansas and Texas A&M.

We figure LSU can come out of this with 9 wins, and 10 is not unlikely either. 11 or more is going to take some great play from the offense, in addition to the great play we expect from the defense. That's the one problem with expecting an SEC title and/or Playoff spot for LSU—is the offense going to be good enough?

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #9 Mississippi Rebels

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Mississippi Rebels  (SEC #5; West #3)

#9	2014 Results	AP #17 USA #19	Strength:#8  Success:#10  Overall:#9
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Lost to TCU 42-3
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #17 | USA #15 | Lindy's #28 | Athlon #11 | Steele #15 | ESPN #9
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.3%   Playoff odds: 5%

Mississippi started last year like the best team in the country, then fell apart near the end. They gear up for another try at the SEC West title, which would put them in line for the College Football Playoff.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #69 (raw) #37 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #25 (adjusted)

The Rebels lose QB Bo Wallace but most of the rest of the offense is back and could be top 25 level.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #39 (raw) #26 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #89
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #36 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #41

Bo Wallace (3,194 yards, 22 TDs, 14 int) is gone as is top receiver Vince Sanders (696 yards) but Wallace spread the ball around pretty well; six other players topped 150 receiving yards and all of them are back including TE Evan Engram (662), Laquon Treadwell (632), and Cody Core (558). Backup QB Ryan Buchanan (75 yards, 0:1) was the starter in spring ball but ex-Clemson juco Chad Kelly is the presumed starter in the fall. The offensive line should greatly improve pass protection over last year's 31 sacks as all five starters return. The passing game should remain pretty decent.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #76 (raw) #58 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.)

The Ole Miss running back Committee had several members and the top two return, led by Jaylen Walton's 586 yards. In all, they lose 3 of the 6 players who topped 100 rushing yards. But the offensive line should boost the rushing totals this year as all five starters return. Seniors Ben Still, Justin Bell, Aaron Morris, and Fahn Cooper are joined by junior Laremy Tunsil. QB Chad Kelly can run the ball well (117 yards at Clemson, 7.1 ave), so if he gets the job he should easily pass Bo Wallace's production (#5 w/199).

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #14    Pass Defense  per-game: #10   Per-attempt: #5
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #2 (raw) #2 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #62	'14 picks: #4
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #2 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #53	'15 picks: #26

Last year Ole Miss's defense was #2 in the nation in scoring defense. Can they push to #1 with 7 starters back? The defensive line has three starters back including Marquise Haynes (7.5 sacks) and Robert Nkimdiche, while CJ Johnson moves to linebacker in the 4-2-5. The secondary has three starters back; they lose Senquez Golson who had 10 interceptions(!) but Tony Connor (8 tackles for loss) is back along with top tackler Mike Hilton. The loss of Golson forces us to dock Ole Miss' projection for interceptions quite a bit, naturally, but overall the defense is almost as good as last year's and still ranks in our #2 spot.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Will Gleason (42.9 punting average) is back along with Gary Wunderlich who shared punting and kicking duties last year (6 of 8 FG).
• Return Game:  Markell Pack (5.3 punt return average) is back as is RB Jaylen Walton (21.3 average on kickoffs).
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see much difference in fumbles nor in QB picks, but the defense will have a hard time matching last year's 22 interceptions without Senquez Golson, who had 10 of those.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #78 (COOL)
Hugh Freeze's 3rd year at Ole Miss was almost magical but fell apart somewhat at the end, the only thing keeping him out of the Cold quadrant where his namesake belongs. He's added a win each year, going 7-6, 8-5, and 9-4 after taking over following after a 2-10 year.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #22          2014 Recruiting Rank: #18
Recruiting continues to go well and Ole Miss stays inside the top 25 which is definitely a requirement in the SEC West these days.

2014 Recap
Mississipp started out like gangbusters and kept getting better. They crushed Boise State 35-13 and demolished Vanderbilt 41-3 on the road. They beat 9-4 ULL 56-15 and 10-3 Memphis 24-3. Still, it took beating Alabama 23-17 for people to realize how good they were. They handled Texas A&M 35-20 and wiped out Tennessee 34-3; at 7-0, they were #3 but were certainly playing like #1. Every game had been excellent. It only took a small step down to lose to LSU 10-7, and that affected the team. They lost at home to Auburn 35-31 the next week with the defense looking human for the first time. After crushing Presbyterian, they hit bottom against Arkansas in a 30-0 loss. The rivalry game brought out the best in Ole Miss and they trounced Mississippi State 31-17 at home, playing the way they did before things fell apart. But that was a temporary aberration; they lost to TCU 42-3 in the Peach Bowl to finish 9-4 after an amazing 7-0 start.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Ole Miss #10 last year, and despite the drop-off at the end that's not far from where they deserved to be ranked. We projected a 9-3 season with losses to Alabama, LSU, and Auburn (two out of three ain't bad). We also predicted that the defense would improve dramatically from #20 to #3, and they ended up #2. All in all not too shabby.

2015 Outlook

Mississippi 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	99%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Alabama	37%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	96%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Florida	67%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	99%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Memphis	83%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	73%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Auburn	54%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	65%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*LSU	58%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	52%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.3%

There's only one game in which we call Ole Miss a definite underdog—at Alabama, not surprisingly. But near the end of the season there are three very tough games that are either close calls or tossups: Auburn, LSU, and Mississippi State.

All four of those teams are in the SEC West along with the Rebels, so there's no way they can escape the killer parts of their schedule. But to counter that, they've scheduled in at trio of cupcakes in the early part of the season. Tennessee-Martin, Fresno State, and New Mexico State are all in Oxford and are all basically gimmes.

They also play Memphis on the road, and the Tigers are no pushover—that will certainly be a tougher game than facing Vanderbilt at home.

That leaves SEC games against Florida, Texas A&M, and Arkansas, and those are tough teams. Taken as a trio by the odds we'd expect the Rebels to win 2 and lose 1. But taken game-by-game, each one on its own should be a win for Ole Miss.

That gets down to the difference between the Straight Up and Cumulative projections. In the former, Mississippi is 11-1, or 10-2 if the tossup Egg Bowl flips to the Bulldogs. The cumulative projection is pretty firmly set at 9-3, without specifying which games are won or lost. In this case we like using the latter, since pretty much anything can happen in Mississippi's last four games.

If everything goes right for the Rebels this year (they upset Alabama, cruise through the rest of the schedule) they still have to win the SEC championship game to guarantee a Playoff spot. But coming from the SEC West having 1 loss is not a death sentence, nor in some cases even two. But finishing with just 1 or 2 losses is the hard part!

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #10 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Oklahoma Sooners  (Big Twelve #3)

#10	2014 Results	AP #35 USA #37	Strength:#14  Success:#43  Overall:#17
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Clemson 40-6 (Russell Athletic)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #19 | USA #19 | Lindy's #21 | Athlon #17 | Steele #16 | ESPN #15
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.7%   Playoff odds: 12%

Last year we were the most pessimistic on Oklahoma; this year we look like the most optimistic.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #20 (raw) #12 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #8 (adjusted)

The Air Raid is coming to Norman, Oklahoma. But that doesn't mean they won't also have a killer ground game courtesy of Samaje Perine.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #85 (raw) #65 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #2
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #10 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #14

Trevor Knight (2,300 yards, 14 TDs, 12 int) wasn't the QB solution that Oklahoma had hoped for; once again, a single performance (in this case, the 2013-season Sugar Bowl) didn't point toward a better year ahead. He's back but Baker Mayfield (2,315 yards, 12:9 at Texas Tech in '13) was named starter for 2015. The passing game won't remain in a rut as new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley (from East Carolina) is installing an Air Raid offense. With last year's top three receivers back including Sterling Shepard (970 yards) and Durron Neil (513) and of course a lot more passing attempts in a faster offense, look for production to rocket. The one question mark is pass protection, but that was so incredibly good last year (9 sacks allowed) that things can get a lot worse and not even be close to bad.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #13 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #17 (adj.)

Samaje Perine (1,713 yards, 21 TDs) had an insane freshman year, punctuated by setting the all-time FBS single-game rushing record against Kansas (427 yards). He's back and they also have Alex Ross (595 yards). What will the new Air Raid offense mean for their numbers? Probably down, especially considering the offensive line returns just one full-time starter in center Ty Darlington. They also have Nila Kasitati who started half-time. The reason we don't see production dropping that much is due to the offense probably being faster—East Carolina ran 10 more plays per game than Oklahoma last year, and while the Sooners probably won't match that, it will be faster and that helps replace some of the rushing reps that the passing game "steals." It does mean that Perine won't top 2,000 yards this year, something that might have happened if last year's offensive scheme remained.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #24    Pass Defense  per-game: #43   Per-attempt: #30
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #55 (raw) #28 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #39	'14 picks: #66
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #32 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #35	'15 picks: #43

The Sooner defensive line has just one starter back and switches to a 4-man front, making it a question mark as they lose Jordan Phillips to the NFL. The linebacker corps is looking good, however, with top tackler Dominique Alexander (107 tackles) back along with Eric Striker (9 sacks, 8 tackles for loss), plus the return of 2013 starter Frank Shannon. The secondary has two starters back including Zach Sanchez (6 interceptions). The defense looks stronger but with the sped-up offense we rate it down a notch.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Michael Hunnicutt (13 of 18 field goals) and punter Jed Barnett (41.9 ave) are gone.
• Return Game:  Punt returner Sterling Shepard (6.6 ave) is back as is Alex Ross (31.2 ave) who had 2 touchdowns on kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  This area looks good for Oklahoma compared to last season. They should have better luck on fumbles, and the defense should have a few more interceptions than last year's 12. The QB position should reduce last year's 16 picks, too, mainly because with Mayfield and Knight both available they won't play Cody Thomas (4 interceptions in 66 attempts).

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #25 (HOT)
Bob Stoops makes the edge of the "hot" quadrant in our Hot Seat formula, mainly because he slipped to 8 wins from 11 the previous year, and the 2nd half of the season was less successful. He shouldn't be this high (seat is not so "hot"), of course, but it does reflect the high standards of Oklahoma football (9 win average over 30 years). And Stoops did make some unusual changes this year, changing offensive coordinators and even marginalizing Mike Stoops' role as defensive coordinator.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #11          2014 Recruiting Rank: #12
Recruiting continues to be excellent at Oklahoma, maybe not top ten nationally but close, and in the Big Twelve competing with Texas for the top spot (no other team is close).

2014 Recap
Pegged as a possible national champ, Oklahoma was great in its first five games: the 48-16 blowout of underrated Louisiana Tech, blasting Tulsa 52-7, beating Tennessee 34-10, and defeating West Virginia 45-33 on the road. Even the narrow 37-33 loss at TCU was a top ten performance. But after the loss they started to slip, and it happened on defense. Texas scored 26, then Kansas State scored 31 in the upset. The Sooners blasted Iowa State 59-14 and looked like their former selves but then got blasted by Baylor 48-14 as Trevor Knight was hurt. After that the offense shifted to run mode and didn't miss too much, but the defensive drop was particularly apparent against Oklahoma State (38-35). Everything fell apart against Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl, a bad finish to an ultimately disappointing season.

Last year's prediction: Oklahoma was in everyone's top 5: AP #4, Coaches #3, Lindy's #3, Athlon #4, Phil Steele #5. We had the Sooners #12 and projected a 9-3 season, and they didn't even quite get there. Of Trevor Knight we wrote "after his Sugar Bowl performance everyone is expecting great things from Knight; we're still skeptical since over 250 of his bowl yards were to receivers no longer here."

2015 Outlook

Oklahoma 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Akron	99%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Tennessee	37%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	99%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	80%	W
10/10	Sat	N	*Texas	81%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Kansas State	79%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	87%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Kansas	99%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	96%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Baylor	31%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*TCU	43%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	74%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.7%

This year Oklahoma has three games against teams we rank above them in the top ten: Baylor, TCU, and Tennessee.

Last year the Sooners blasted Tennessee at home, 34-10; now they're playing in Knoxville and the Volunteers are a much better team. That game is sandwiched between cupcake foes Akron and Tulsa, but starting 3-0 is unlikely.

Oklahoma is strong enough to beat West Virginia, Texas, and Kansas State, and the three games that follow—Texas Tech, Kansas, and Iowa State—should be even easier. That makes for a 7-game stretch where any loss would be considered a pretty big upset in our book.

But then they have Baylor and TCU back-to-back, and winning either of them would be a bonus. They have more chance with the Horned Frogs since that one is at home. Then the Sooners travel to Oklahoma State and should win there, though with that rivalry nothing is easy to predict.

Both the game-by-game and cumulative estimates reflect the lower odds of beating their toughest opponents, and if—a big "if"—they don't fall victim to a big upset, 9-3 is the worst they should expect to do. How well might they do? 12-0 gets them to the College Football Playoff, easy, and 11-1 might, too. It's probably most important that they beat Tennessee, as losing that one would put them behind who knows how many SEC teams in the pecking order.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #11 USC Trojans

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

USC Trojans  (Pac-12 #2; South #1)

#11	2014 Results	AP #20 USA #21	Strength:#17  Success:#19  Overall:#16
		Record: 9-4	Bowl: Beat Nebraska 45-42 (Holiday)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #8 | USA #10 | Lindy's #11 | Athlon #6 | Steele #4 | ESPN #12
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99%   Playoff odds: 6%

Ever since the NCAA sanctions against the program, USC has been somewhat schizophrenic. At times they played like national champs; at others, they fell flat. Most people have attributed this to the scholarship reductions. With the sanctions over the program is getting closer to having a full roster, but when will we see the USC look like USC? That is, when will they be both good and consistent?

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #24 (raw) #21 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #13 (adjusted)

We paradoxically show the passing game dropping in rank, the running game dropping in rank, but the offense going up in rank. In actual numbers they all stay about the same, but vary against other teams' estimates. In other words, the USC offense should be as good as it was last year or even a bit better.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #15 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #96
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #30 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #52

Cody Kessler (3,826 yards, 36 TDs, 5 interceptions) had a Heisman-like year on a non-Heisman team, so he didn't get notice for it—until after the season, when everyone started to mention it. Kessler is back but most of his receivers are not. In fact, 5 of the top 8 are gone including #1 Nelson Agholor (104 receptions, 1,313 yards, 12 TDs). #2 Juju Smith (724 yards) is back along with the #5 and #8 pass catchers. This might put a crimp in Kessler's Heisman hopes but at least he'll have much better protection as the entire offensive line is back. They should greatly reduce last year's 32 sacks. As mentioned on Offense above, we project a miniscule decline that somehow translates into 10 rungs (it's a very crowded area I suppose, that 20-30 zone).

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #68 (raw) #47 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #56 (adj.)

Javorius Allen (1,489 yards, 11 TDs) is gone, but Justin Davis (595 yards) is back and so is Tre Madden who had 703 yards in 2013. Those two, running behind a line that returns all its starters, should be able to nearly make up all of last year's production (even if it looks like another 10+ rung decline). The O-Line returns senior Max Tuerk, juniors Zach Banner and Chad Wheeler, and sophomores Viane Talamaivao and Toa Lobendahn. Note that a big decrease in sack yardage also 'contributes' to rushing totals in college ball.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #20    Pass Defense  per-game: #85   Per-attempt: #24
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #47 (raw) #24 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #33	'14 picks: #36
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #32	'15 picks: #7

The D-Line will miss Leonard Williams (7 sacks) but two senior starters are back in the front of the 3-4. At linebacker the "rush" LB JR Tavai (7 sacks) is gone, but with Su'a Cravens (5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss) back—plus Lamar Dawson and Jabari Ruffin coming back from injury—the corps is in good shape. The secondary returns Kevon Seymour (13 pass breakups) and Adoree Jackson (10 pass breakups) who started both at cornerback and wide receiver (#8 w/138 yards). We expect a stronger defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Kris Albarado (41.4 average) is back but kicker Andre Heidari (9 of 11 FG) departs.
• Return Game:  USC had 4 touchdown returns last year. Two were by Nelson Agholor (10.4 ave) on punts; the other two were by WR/corner Adoree Jackson on kickoffs (29.7 ave). Jackson is back, Agholor is not.
• Turnovers projection:  We think the defense is ripe to get more than last year's 14 picks.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #68 (MILD)
This is a perfect case to explain that our Hot Seat formula does not take anything into account other than wins and losses. This ranking, in the 'mild' quadrant, meaning not Hot (in danger) nor Cold (very safe) shows Steve Sarkisian, after completing one season at 9-4, to not be on the hot seat but still not having reached the point where everyone is saying "he's our guy!" 9-4 was a step down from the previous year, actually, but it was a fair result and it was only his first season.
That ranking made sense until about a week ago when Sarkisian drunkenly berated other teams in the Pac-12 and generally embarrassed himself, needing to be pulled offstage by AD Pat Haden. That will make your coaching seat a whole lot hotter a whole lot faster, and it had nothing to do with wins and losses.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #4          2014 Recruiting Rank: #25
Sarkisian's first "real" class (the other was in the coaching transition year and was still limited by NCAA sanctions) is pretty impressive, ranking among the top SEC teams at the top of the FBS. Three of the four consensus 5-star players in the class are on defense: Iman Marshall (corner, Long Beach CA), Rasheem Green (tackle, Gardena CA), and Osa Masina (LB, Salt Lake City UT). Chuma Edoga is an offensive lineman from Georgia who will have to wait his turn as this year's O-Line is stacked.

2014 Recap
USC impressed early with a 52-13 win over Fresno State and a 13-10 victory at Stanford, but they hit a pothole with the 37-31 loss to Boston College. They fell to Arizona State on a last-second hail Mary, but then beat Arizona when the Wildcats missed a last-second field goal. From there they beat the weak teams and lost to the good ones, including Utah and UCLA, until the final game where they toasted Notre Dame 49-14. That set up a great bowl game against Nebraska that lived up to the hype as USC edged the Cornhuskers 45-42. It wasn't everything that USC fans wanted, but it was acceptable for a first-year head coach.

Last year's prediction: We put USC #9 with the caveat that the scholarship reductions were still hurting the team and that they'd be inconsistent. That certainly was true. We projected an 8-4 record and that's what they ended up with, just not the way you'd expect it. We picked losses to Stanford and UCLA; instead they beat Stanford and lost to Boston College, ASU, and Utah. The Utah loss wasn't completely unexpected as we'd given the Utes a 47% chance, but we gave B.C. only a 15% chance for the upset. Overall we were pretty close on the offense and defensive projections, and as for Cody Kessler we wrote "his efficiency suggests that pushing the pace will be a good thing."

2015 Outlook

USC 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	95%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Idaho	99%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	74%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Arizona State	61%	W
10/8	Thu	vs.	*Washington	96%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Notre Dame	52%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Utah	80%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*California	61%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	76%	W
11/13	Fri	@	*Colorado	83%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Oregon	32%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	68%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

It looks like there are just a few key games separating USC from an undefeated season—assuming they can get the whole "consistency" thing under control.

The first two games (Arkansas State, Idaho) are warmups for game three when they host Stanford. We think the Cardinal are going to come up short again. Traveling to Arizona State will make for an even tougher challenge, but not so for Washington at home. Can USC be 5-0 at this point? Yes, if they play consistently.

Their first big challenge is Notre Dame at South Bend, and the Irish will be out for revenge. Have things changed enough that last year's 49-14 is moot? Probably, since Notre Dame was reeling at the time and very unmotivated. This should be a very close game.

The Trojans can certainly beat Utah, Arizona, and Colorado, and should be able to beat Cal and UCLA. But the big question is, can they beat Oregon on the road? We think they've come pretty far but they're not quite at that level yet. Still, it should be a good game, not a runaway win for the Ducks.

Even if they do beat the Ducks once, they might have to do it again in the Pac-12 Championship game, which will probably lead to a College Football Playoff berth for the winner. If USC plays consistently enough to win the games they should, then they essentially have 2 tries at beating the Ducks to get there.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #12 Arkansas Razorbacks

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Arkansas Razorbacks  (SEC #6; West #4)

#12	2014 Results	AP #33 USA #32	Strength:#11  Success:#29  Overall:#13
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Texas 31-7 (Texas Bowl)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #18 | USA #20 | Lindy's #27 | Athlon #16 | Steele #18 | ESPN #10
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 95%   Playoff odds: 1%

Last year Arkansas finished #11 in Strength despite a 7-6 record. In other words, even though we rank them higher than almost anyone, we're really only projecting them to be about as good as they were last year—but with a little more success in the W column.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #44 (raw) #27 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #21 (adjusted)

Before the running game lost Johnathan Williams, we really had the Razorback offense due for a jump. We still see it improving with better passing.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #102 (raw) #77 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #15
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #50 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #15

Brandon Allen (2,285 yards, 20 TDs, 5 interceptions) has made the Arkansas QB position important again, something that was lost in Brett Bielema's first year. With top receiver Keon Hatcher (558 yards) and tight end Hunter Henry (513) back, it could be even more important to their success in 2015. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos has talked about adding more screen passes to the mix. Two years ago Arkansas ranked #118 in passing yards; this season we think they'll be above average (adjusted for opposition, of course).

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #27 (raw) #26 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #53 (adj.)

Just as Bret Bielema was building a running game juggernaut, one of the twin pillars came crashing down. Leading rusher Johnathan Williams (1,190 yards, 12 TDs) was injured and required foot surgery that will keep him out this year. They still have Alex Collins (1,100 yards, 12 TDs) who will bear more of the load, but some of the backfield's rushing total will be converted to short pass situations. So while we show a decline, some of that is simply transfer to the passing game. Some of it, too, is due to Williams' loss. The offensive line should be in good shape, with center Mitch Smothers, Sebastian Tretola, Dan Skipper, and Denver Kirkland back. Could the offense actually be balanced this year? It could be, unless the coaches call off the extra passing plays. In any case, look for Collins to have an excellent year 'Hogging' all the carries.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #2    Pass Defense  per-game: #17   Per-attempt: #28
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #8 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #85	'14 picks: #61
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #6 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #96	'15 picks: #51

The unsung hero of last year's team was the defense, which locked down the run and ranked in the top ten in scoring defense. This year's unit should be just as good, too. Two of the front four are gone including Trey Flowers (6 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker top tackler Martrell Spaight (128 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss) is gone while Brooks Ellis is back. The secondary loses Alan Turner but Jared Collins (13 pass breakups) is back. The defense made a huge leap last year and they should remain solid. We also think OC Enos might slow the offense down a bit, which helps the defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Adam McFain (7 of 10 FG) is back while punter Sam Irwin-Hill (40.1 ave) moves on.
• Return Game:  DJ Dean led the punt fielding unit with an 11.0 average, while Korliss Marshall, who departs, had a 30.1 average and one touchdown on kickoff duty.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see much change here.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #54 (MILD)
Bret Bielema must have been a hard pill to swallow for some Arkansas fans, given his run-based, slower-paced philosophies. A 3-9 first season didn't help, but last year's 7-6 turnaround has to have pleased knowledgeable fans, who saw how tough their schedule was and how much they had really improved. He has to follow through, of course. Bielema managed to hire away Central Michigan head coach Dan Enos to be offensive coordinator, and his previous hire at defensive coordinator (Robb Smith) really paid dividends last year.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #17          2014 Recruiting Rank: #31
This year's class is up to par in the SEC, which is to say, firmly in the top 25 nationally. It's another good argument for Bielema's continued success here.

2014 Recap
Arkansas was a very good team stuck in a great conference, and an insane division of that conference. The Razorbacks played 7 games against year-end top 25 teams, 5 of them in the SEC West and two from the East. Not only did they beat two top 25 teams, they shut them out by a combined 47-0. That's when people finally started considering the Razorbacks a good team, but there were signs all year long. Maybe not with the 45-21 loss to Auburn, and 73-7 over Nicholls State isn't going to impress. But the 21 point Texas Tech win and especially, beating Northern Illinois 52-14 were impressive. The overtime loss to Texas A&M and the 1-point loss to Alabama showed they could compete with anyone, and they made Georgia and Mississippi State (17-10) work for their wins, too. At 4-5 they were one of the best teams in the country but no one knew it; they had 5 losses to top ten teams! But Bret Bielema still didn't have a conference win. Finally with the 17-0 LSU and 30-0 Mississippi wins they got over the hump, but couldn't sustain it on the road against Missouri. They came back to life against Texas, blasting the Longhorns 31-7 in the Texas Bowl, the best 7-6 team we've seen in a long time.

Last year's prediction: We projected a big year of improvement for the Razorbacks, from #74 all the way up to #51, and a 5-7 season. They blew past the first projection, ending up at #11, but the 2nd one was harder to top. They did make it to 6-6, which was actually 3 games more than we designated on the game-by-game chart. We gave them the obvious ones—Nicholls, Northern Illinois, and UAB—but not Texas Tech, and certainly not LSU and Ole Miss.

2015 Outlook

Arkansas 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	UTEP	99%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Toledo	90%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Texas Tech	85%	W
9/26	Sat	N	*Texas A&M	59%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Tennessee	33%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Alabama	31%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	65%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	100%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Mississippi	36%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*LSU	35%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	63%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	78%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

Arkansas starts with three home games that only get a bit harder going from UTEP to Toledo to Texas Tech. The neutral field game vs. Texas A&M is going to be a lot tougher than any of those, but we favor the Razorbacks.

Then they face Tennessee and Alabama both on the road; if they win either one then they're ahead of the curve.

The Hogs should recover to beat Auburn at home; again, not easy but we think that's a win this year, and we pretty much know Tennessee-Martin is a win.

Then it's another road stand, this time against the two teams they embarrassed last year by a combined 47-0. First it's Mississippi (30-0), then LSU (17-0). Both teams will want revenge, and we assume they will have figured out how to score on the Razorbacks. Can they win one or both of them this year? Maybe, but we make them the dog in both.

The season closes with Mississippi State and Missouri, two teams that beat Arkansas last season. We think these outcomes could turn around, too.

That leaves the 'Hogs 8-4 on the year, with a lot of results flip-flopping from last year's outcomes. To win all four of the games we think they'll lose? That would take a lot. And if they somehow did it, they'd have to face the East champ in the SEC title game. This makes us very skeptical of their Playoff chances, just like pretty much every team trapped in the SEC West.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #14 Auburn Tigers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Auburn Tigers  (SEC #8; West #6)

#14	2014 Results	AP #22 USA #23	Strength:#9  Success:#22  Overall:#10
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Lost to Wisconsin 34-31ot (Outback)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #6 | USA #7 | Lindy's #8 | Athlon #4 | Steele #14 | ESPN #17
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 88%   Playoff odds: <1%

Auburn has 5 teams above them in the SEC West and they play Georgia from the East. If they win their division they might have to face Georgia a 2nd time in Atlanta. That's why we give a team ranked this high so little chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #28 (raw) #7 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #41 (adjusted)

The Tigers lose their star quarterback and star running back and one of two top receivers. This looks like a big downgrade but the way Auburn has been recruiting, the drop won't be so pronounced.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #68 (raw) #39 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #18
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #57 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #20

Nick Marshall (2,532 yards, 20 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) threw the ball well enough for a dual-threat QB and didn't turn it over much. Jeremy Johnson (436 yards, 3:0) will take over and he should do nearly as well, but only one of last year's two go-to targets is back. Sammie Coates (#1 in yardage w/741) is gone while D'haquille Williams (#1 w/45 rec, 730 yards) is back. In all, just 3 of the top 7 return, but Johnson is good enough that if production drops it won't be by much, and if they throw the ball more he'll pass Marshall's numbers.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #14 (raw) #8 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #39 (adj.)

Auburn loses their top three rushers from last year including Cameron Artis-Payne (1,608 yards, 123 TDs) and of course QB Nick Marshall (798, 11). WR Ricardo Lewis (220 yards) is the leading returnee, but the projected starter is long-awaited juco Jovon Robinson. The offensive line returns starters Avery Young and Shon Coleman, while Devonte Danzey started half-time and Alex Kozan started in 2013. Artis-Payne's numbers will be hard to match, but moreso the ground production from the QB position is likely to be down a lot.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #38    Pass Defense  per-game: #47   Per-attempt: #27
Defense 8 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #65 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #98	'14 picks: #5
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #24 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #93	'15 picks: #5

Will Muschamp arrives from Florida to take over as Auburn's defensive coordinator. The Tiger defensive line is bolstered by the return of '13 starter Carl Lawson at the 'Buck' position but we don't foresee a huge improvement in the pass rush. Two starting linebackers return including Cassanova McKinzy (9.5 tackles for loss). In the secondary they lose Jermaine Whitehead (6 interceptions) but have Johnathan Jones (11 pass breakups, 6 interceptions) back. They also have Georgia transfer Tray Matthews and Michigan grad transfer Blake Countess (6 int in 2013). In raw figures Auburn's total defense was #67 and the scoring defense #65, but they faced great offenses (SEC schedule plus Kansas State and Louisiana Tech). We see the defense remaining about the same across the board—at a top 25 level. Muschamp always did have great defenses at Florida, so we'll see how much effect he has this fall.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter/kicker Daniel Carlson is back; he averaged 42.0 on punts and made 18 of 24 field goals.
• Return Game:  Quan Bray had 2 touchdown returns last year on punts and an 18.2 average. Cory Grant averaged 22.4 yards per kickoff return. Both are gone.
• Turnovers projection:  Auburn's turnover situation is pretty extreme. First, we don't expect them to match last year's 22 interceptions, and although Jeremy Johnson has a good track record so far he might surpass Nick Marshall's 7 from last year if he throws the ball more than Marshall. This is somewhat offset by the fact that Auburn had the nation's worst luck on fumble recoveries last year. Their opponents coughed up the ball 4 more times than they did, but they ended up with a -8 fumble margin. That should even out this year. Overall, it's roughly a wash.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #72 (MILD)
Gus Malzahn almost took Auburn to the top in his first year, improving the team from 3-9 to 12-2. But in doing so he created an unrealistic expectation and 8-5 doesn't look good in comparison, especially when the team started 5-0 and finished 3-5 last year. Fans recall that Gene Chizik fell from 14-0 to 8-5...then to 3-9 and was fired. Fortunes can change quickly at Auburn, but right now Malzahn is in no trouble—as long as he doesn't go 3-9 this year.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #1          2014 Recruiting Rank: #6
Auburn's recruiting continues to be among the best in the nation and this year their class gets our #1 ranking...by a nose. Malzahn brough in nearly 30 recruits including 5-star defensive lineman Byron Cowart from Seffner, FL. Also, RB Jovon Robinson finally makes it to Auburn after failing to qualify in 2012, 2013, and 2014, spending a year off and two years in junior college. The class has an amazing 20 consensus 4-star recruits.

2014 Recap
Auburn was the best team in the country after five games, no question about it. Then they dropped to a lower level and stayed there the rest of the season, losing 5 of their last 8 games. The 45-21 win over Arkansas didn't look impressive at the time but it was. The Tigers crushed San Jose State 59-13, got a tough road win at Kansas State (20-14), blasted an underrated Louisiana Tech 45-17, and then absolutely demolished LSU 41-7. But everything went wrong after the 38-23 loss to Mississippi State. It seems that with Auburn's dream to get back to the championship game in question, they lost confidence. In 2013 every break went their way, from miracle catches to insane field goal returns, and their first loss brought them back to reality. In the aftermath they beat South Carolina, barely, and managed to hold on—literally, in the case of the goal-line tackle—for their last big win at Ole Miss, 35-31. But after that they lost to Texas A&M 41-38—ending the national title dream for sure—which led to Georgia blasting them 34-7. They gave it a good try against Alabama but lost 55-44, and fell in overtime to Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl.

Last year's prediction: We don't consider our ranking of Auburn at #6 to be too far off; it's pretty much the average of where they were for the first half of the season and where they ended up. It's also where everyone ranked them (either #5 or #6). We projected a 9-3 finish for the Tigers, specifying losses only to Georgia and Alabama. 

2015 Outlook

Auburn 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Louisville	82%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	96%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*LSU	31%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	56%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	97%	W
10/15	Thu	@	*Kentucky	59%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Arkansas	35%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	46%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	44%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	31%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	Idaho	100%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	41%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 88%

Auburn kicks off against Louisville in Atlanta and we favor the Tigers over the Cards on a neutral field. Note that Auburn's other three non-conference games are gimmes and rather severe ones: Jacksonville State of the FCS in game 2, San José State (beat them 59-13 last year) in October, and Idaho in November.

But their other eight games are against SEC foes, with six of those from the deadly SEC West, and one of their East opponents is Georgia. That game, along with LSU on the road, are their toughest hurdles, but there are plenty more: Arkansas in Fayetteville, Alabama at home, and Texas A&M in College Station. Mississippi at home is more of a tossup situation but it's still a hurdle.

Some of the games we favor them in aren't too friendly, either. Mississippi State at home and Kentucky on the road are probably games they should win, but they won't be easy.

In some ways the season is shaping up to look a lot like last season. The first six games are a lot easier than the last six, and the Tigers could go 5-1 followed by 1-5 without it being much of a shock.

Last season Auburn had very little luck down the stretch. In 2014 they had all the luck in the world. This year things will probably even out and we'll see the Tigers as they really are. Unfortunately in the SEC West that might not be a very good result!

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #17 UCLA Bruins

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

UCLA Bruins  (Pac-12 #3; South #2)

#17	2014 Results	AP #10 USA #10	Strength:#19  Success:#8  Overall:#14
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Kansas State 40-35 (Alamo)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #13 | USA #14 | Lindy's #20 | Athlon #23 | Steele #12 | ESPN #11
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99%   Playoff odds: 4%

UCLA loses their star quarterback but the pollsters only drop them a couple of spots because most of the rest of the team returns.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #39 (raw) #18 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #15 (adjusted)

The Bruins lose Brett Hundley but with nearly everyone else back the offense could improve.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #44 (raw) #33 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #115
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #37 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #105

Brett Hundley (3,155 yards, 22 TDs, 5 int) had a fine junior year, after which everyone knew he would leave. He hands the reigns over to true freshman Josh Rosen; how will the passing game fare going from a 3-year starter to one who has never played college football? Well, Rosen is a rare talent by all reports and he's coming into a good situation receiver-wise. The top five pass catchers are back led by #1 Jordan Payton (954 yards, 7 TDs) and #2 Thomas Duarte (540). Pass protection has been a problem for UCLA for years now and they seemed resigned to allowing 40 or so sacks each year. Not the way you want to break in a freshman QB but the O-Line should be at least a little better in that department. All in all, we look for roughly the same production but with the usual growing pains.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #34 (raw) #19 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #10 (adj.)

Paul Perkins (1,575 yards, 9 TDs) is back but Brett Hundley (644 yards, 10 TDs) is not; Josh Rosen can run but won't run the way Hundley did. Luckily the offensive line should be stronger this year. Jake Brendel, Caleb Benenoch, and Alex Redmond return, while Conor McDermott started half-time. 2012 starter Simon Goines is back from a redshirt year, just as they lose Scott Quessenberry to a redshirt for his summer injuries. Perkins should have another stellar year and get more non-QB support behind a line that will try to stay healthy for once. How much the ground game produces depends on how quickly the passing game comes along, but Perkins averaged 6.3 yards per carry despite being called on a lot last year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #42    Pass Defense  per-game: #60   Per-attempt: #15
Defense 7.5 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #76 (raw) #33 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #57	'14 picks: #79
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #32 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #67	'15 picks: #70

UCLA's 3-man front returns two starters, though that means overcoming the loss of Owamagbe Odighizuwa (6 sacks). At linebacker they lose top tackler Eric Kendricks (149 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss) but 2-way phenomenon Myles Jack (8 tackles for loss, also #5 rusher last year) is still around along with sacks leader Deon Hollins (9 sacks). The secondary has at least three starters back, so it's in fine shape regardless of the departure of backup Priest Willis; they also get 2013 starter Randall Goforth back from injury. There aren't many losses but those they have are significant (3 of top 4 tacklers) so while we see improvement it might not be huge. In fact, once we dock 1/2 of corner Ishmael Adams (out indefinitely due to robbery charges) it's pretty much a wash.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Matt Mengel (40.2 average) is back with kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn (18 of 22 field goals).
• Return Game:  Ishmael Adams starts in the secondary and is also the team's return ace, averaging 9.2 yards per punt return and 22.7 on kickoffs, with 1 touchdown.
• Turnovers projection:  Brett Hundley threw just 5 picks last year, and it's not easy to tell how many Josh Rosen will have but odds are it will be more, probably quite a few more.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #82 (COOL)
Jim Mora is pretty well accepted here now, thanks to 9-, 10-, and 10-win seasons (the best predecessor Rick Neuheisel did was 7 wins). His biggest problem is dealing with the sons of famous rappers: P. Diddy attacked UCLA strength coach Sal Alosi with a kettle bell over a dispute involving his linebacker son, Justin Combs, and Snoop Dogg's son Cordell Broadus, a 4-star recruit this year, quit football.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #18          2014 Recruiting Rank: #37
This year's class, even minus Snoop Dogg Jr, is pretty good, vying with several others for 2nd best in the Pac-12 behind USC. Of course QB Josh Rosen from Bellflower, CA was the big catch and he'll be starting in the fall. On defense Keisean Lucier-South is the top recruit, while RB Soso Jamabo from Plano, TX might see time in the backfield immediately, as long as there is no fallout from a spring incident where he fled from police.

2014 Recap
Can a 10-win season with a top 10 finish in the polls feel like a disappointment? With expectations sky-high, UCLA started the season on a bum note, beating Virginia 28-20, but it would be their high-water mark for a few more games. They escaped with a 7-point home win over Memphis then beat Texas by just a field goal, 20-17. Then they exploded for 62 points against Arizona State. But it didn't last—the lost to Utah 30-28, to Oregon 42-30, beat Cal by 2 and Colorado in double overtime. Just when it looked bleakest, they beat Arizona, Washington, and USC. And then, just when it looked like they'd figured it out, they played their worst game of the season at home against Stanford, losing 31-10. From another low point, the bowl game was a microcosm of the season, as they took a 31-6 lead over Kansas State but played a terrible 2nd half, winning 40-35. It was a success that felt a bit disappointing in the end.

Last year's prediction: We didn't just drink the Kool Aid, we were mixing it up and serving it out! We put UCLA #3 in the nation and projected a 10-2 season, favoring the Bruins in every game. But the passing game didn't improve like we expected and with it, the offense wasn't any better. The defense went the opposite direction. The team showed only the occasional flashes of the kind of quality we'd foreseen for them.

2015 Outlook

UCLA 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Virginia	89%	W
9/12	Sat	@	UNLV	99%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Brigham Young	90%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Arizona	47%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	64%	W
10/15	Thu	@	*Stanford	44%	L
10/22	Thu	vs.	*California	66%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	86%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Oregon State	95%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	89%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Utah	54%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*USC	30%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

UCLA's first trio of games shouldn't be a challenge: Virginia and BYU are decent teams but the Bruins are at home, and UNLV is not good this year. The next four games are a different story. Arizona and Stanford on the road are up in the air, while Arizona State and California, even in Los Angeles, are going to be tough games.

Then the Bruins have another trio of games that should be relatively easy: Colorado, Oregon State, and Washington State. Combine those with the opening trio and you can see why we give UCLA a 99% chance of going to a bowl game.

The final two games are tough road games at Utah and USC, the latter being the only game in which we make UCLA a very clear underdog. So an 11-1 season is not an unrealistic goal, and the 9-3 cumulative projection will come true if they drop the two tossup games along with USC. There is a slight chance to Bruins make it through at 12-0, and in any case if they manage to win the South they'd probably have to play Oregon for the Pac-12 title. We give them about a 5% chance of making the College Football Playoff—much smaller than the chance we gave them last year when we ranked them in the top 4, of course. But when you lose a 3-year starting QB and are still ranked just as high by the pollsters, the program is in pretty good shape.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Notre Dame Fighting Irish  (Independent #1)

#15	2014 Results	AP #26 USA #28	Strength:#33  Success:#32  Overall:#35
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat LSU 31-28 (Music City)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #11 | USA #11 | Lindy's #7 | Athlon #12 | Steele #13 | ESPN #18
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 9%

If the Irish can win three tossup games—and avoid falling into a couple of trap games—they could go 12-0 and be Playoff bound. They're gonna need their "luck" back in order to do it.

Offense 7 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #38 (raw) #23 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #26 (adjusted)

Goodbye Everett Golson, hello Malik Zaire. Ultimately we don't see the offense getting any better nor too much worse for the switch.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #19 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #76
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #25 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #79

Everett Golson (3,445 yards, 29 TDs, 14 int) had a great year for the Irish in 2014—at least, a great half-year. In the 2nd half of the season the turnovers increased to the point where he was replaced by Malik Zaire (266 yards, 1:0) and that's how it stood until Golson transferred to Florida State. Zaire will have all the top targets back: Will Fuller (1,094 yards, 15 TDs), Chris Brown (548 yards), Corey Robinson (539) and CJ Prosise (516). We're not quite sold on the idea that Zaire is a better passer than Golson; he's probably more efficient but a bit less productive.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #70 (raw) #41 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #54 (adj.)

The Irish have leading rusher Tarean Folston (889 yards) back but lose the next three in line, all of whom topped 250 yards. #2 Greg Bryant (289) is academically ineligible and Everett Golson was #3 with 283 yards. The offensive line should be about the same as Nick Martin, Ronnie Stanley, and Steve Elmer are back. The surprise loss of Bryant dings our prediction but Malik Zaire averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year (187 total) and should prevent the totals from falling too far—or boost them, if they let him run like he did against LSU (96 yards).

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #55    Pass Defense  per-game: #84   Per-attempt: #73
Defense 9 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #84 (raw) #53 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #71	'14 picks: #24
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #28 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #48	'15 picks: #12

Notre Dame's defense looks to be much tougher this year. Three starters return to the defensive line—it was four until Jarron Jones' MCL tear this summer—and we look for a stronger pass rush. At linebacker all three starters return including top tackler Jaylon Smith (112 tackles). The secondary has three starters back from last year including Cole Luke (11 pass breakups) and they get 2013 starter KeiVarae Russell back from academic suspension. They also bring in grad transfer Avery Sebastian who started for Cal last year. The D goes from being the team's weakness to probably being a good match for the offense, and staying healthier this year wouldn't hurt.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kyle Brindza was the team's punter (41.5 average) and placekicker (14 of 24 field goals); he's gone.
• Return Game:  Main punt fielder Cody Riggs (7.3 average) is gone but Amir Carlisle (21.7 on kickoff returns) is back.
• Turnovers projection:  We see almost no change here. You'd think that getting rid of Everett Golson, who became a turnover machine, might have an effect, but Notre Dame's fumbling overall wasn't too out of whack, and however many fewer interceptions Zaire throws could be recouped by the defense increasing theirs a bit.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #49 (WARM)
Brian Kelly had established himself at one point, when Notre Dame had a 12-0 season in 2012. But since then they've gone 9-4 and 8-5, and the worst part was going 1-5 in the 2nd half of last season. So now he's edged just barely into "warm" territory on our scale, though if you ask some fans he should have been fired by now. There are always "those" fans. If the drop in wins continues, however, "those" fans may be a majority.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #15          2014 Recruiting Rank: #8
Another year, another top 25 recruiting class for Notre Dame. Like last year, they load up on consensus 4-star players but don't get the 5-stars.

2014 Recap
Notre Dame's season started with a lot of promise and ended with a thud—before redeeming themselves somewhat with a big bowl victory. The 48-17 win over bowl-bound Rice was one of their best performances—2nd only to beating Michigan 31-0. The Irish were 5-0 after beating Stanford 17-14 and touted as a Playoff contender, but after struggling with North Carolina (50-43) they were only a borderline top 25 team in Strength at 6-0. The close loss to Florida State (31-27) further fooled people into thinking the Irish were a top team; they weren't. That was revealed plainly a few games later as Arizona State pulled away 55-31, then Northwestern stunned the Irish in overtime. Louisville added to the hurt (31-28) and after USC put the 49-14 bomb on them, the Irish had lost 5 of their last 6 games. Almost as stunning as that collapse was their recovery against LSU in the Music City Bowl, where they edged the Tigers 31-28.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Notre Dame #33 and projected a 7-5 record; they finished #33 in Strength with a 7-5 record. Not sure how much better than that you want. Ok, the game-by-game picks. We had Notre Dame starting 5-1, and they won all 6 (Stanford we gave a 57% chance to win). That was the only game we had wrong through ASU (game nine) but then Notre Dame lost to Northwestern and Louisville.

2015 Outlook

Notre Dame 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Texas	81%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Virginia	80%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	62%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	92%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Clemson	51%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	Navy	95%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	USC	48%	L
10/31	Sat	@	Temple	59%	W
11/7	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	68%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	Wake Forest	95%	W
11/21	Sat	@	Boston College	79%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Stanford	47%	L
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

Notre Dame's schedule looks like this: 7 solid wins, 2 tough wins, and 3 tossups. Depending on how those pan out the Irish could repeat last year's mediocrity or be on their way to the College Football Playoff.

The seven solid wins include the opener against Texas and the first road game against Virginia. UMass, Navy, and Wake Forest are the easiest of the easier games. And we'll put Pittsburgh in here, too, despite Notre Dame's constant trouble with the Panthers.

The tough wins are Georgia Tech at home and Temple on the road. The Yellow Jackets arrive playing the triple-option and the Irish don't have an extra week to prepare. Playing Navy every year helps, but it would have been nice to schedule the Midshipmen before Georgia Tech. Temple is a classic trap game, following USC, with 2 weeks off before it, and on Halloween. Both these games could be trouble.

The three tossup games are Clemson on the road, USC at home, and Stanford on the road. These should be self-explanatory. It's a tall task to beat all these teams but it has to be a good sign that your worst game is a 50/50 proposition.

It's hard to imagine Notre Dame becoming consistent enough to win all 12 of these games. If they manage to do it, it will probably look a lot like 2012 where they lucked their way to several wins throughout the season. But then, isn't luck what the Irish are supposed to be all about?

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #16 Texas A&M Aggies

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Texas A&M Aggies  (SEC #9; West #7)

#16	2014 Results	AP #35 USA #35	Strength:#23  Success:#26  Overall:#32
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat West Virginia 45-37 (Liberty)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #27 | USA #27 | Lindy's #23 | Athlon #20 | Steele #32 | ESPN #8
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 94%   Playoff odds: 1%

The Aggies only play three road games this year, which should probably be against the law.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #29 (raw) #11 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #19 (adjusted)

Is Kyle Allen really better than Kenny Hill was? We'll find out as Allen will be full-time starter—as long as he holds off the true freshman breathing down his neck.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #12 (raw) #9 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #64
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #17 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #81

Kenny Hill (2,649 yards, 23 TDs, 8 int) started with a bang against South Carolina and the "Kenny Trill" hype was born. Ultimately, however, he was replaced by Kyle Allen (1,322 yards, 16:7) and Hill transferred. Most of last year's top targets are back other than #2 Malcome Kennedy (611 yards). #1 Josh Reynolds (842 yards, 13 TDs) returns with #3 Speedy Noil (583), and Ricky Seals-Jones and Edward Pope who both topped 450 yards. The offensive line looks a bit weaker so pass protection may be more of an issue. Despite replacing him, Allen wasn't significantly better than Hill who had a better completion rate (67% to 61%) and yards-per-attempt. We look for good numbers but maybe not quite as good as the two had combined. Allen had to battle true freshman Kyler Murray before being named starter; if he ever stumbles against the killer SEC schedule, he'd better watch his back, too.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #84 (raw) #62 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #87 (adj.)

The Aggies had two top rushers in 2014. Tra Carson (581 yards) is back while Tray Williams (560) is not. Meanwhile #3 Brandon Williams (379) is moving to the defense, and #4 was Kenny Hill (156 yards). The offensive line had six main starters and three are back: Senior center Mike Matthews, Joseph Cheek, and Germain Ifedi. Losing 1st round draft pick Cedric Ogbuehi is what makes the line weaker, and along with the losses at running back rushing yardage may drop. Kyle Allen isn't the runner than Hill was, either.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #105    Pass Defense  per-game: #48   Per-attempt: #46
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #80 (raw) #46 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #28	'14 picks: #123
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #40 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #13	'15 picks: #115

Rush defense is where the Aggies need help, and at least in the front four things should get better. Myles Garrett (11.5 sacks) is among those back and the team's pass rush should be even stronger than last year (36 sacks). At linebacker they lose pretty much every starter including Justin Bass, but reserve Shaan Washington had the stats of a starter, and he is the team's leading returning tackler. The secondary loses the team's two top tacklers, Howard Matthews and Deshazor Everett. Despite this, we think the defense will be a little better this year, and the secondary has to have more than last year's 5 interceptions. Kevin Sumlin hired away LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis and that should help, too.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Drew Kaser (44.1 average) is back but kicker Josh Lambo (13 of 15 FG) departs.
• Return Game:  Speedy Noil is the team's main return man; he averaged 23.9 yards per kickoff return and 12.0 per punt return as a freshman.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see a lot of difference here.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #47 (WARM)
Kevin Sumlin started his tenure here with an 11-2 record, slipped to 9-4 in '13, then to 8-5 last year, which just barely edges him into 'warm' territory. If he'd had those seasons in the opposite order he'd probably be inside the 'cool' quadrant by now.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #6          2014 Recruiting Rank: #7
Sumlin's latest class is fantastic, as was the previous one. In SEC, you need to sprint just to stay up with everyone else when it comes to recruiting; the class ranks 5th in the conference. The top recruits this year are defensive lineman Daylon Mack, wide receiver Christian Kirk from Arizona, and dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray, who turned down the MLB to battle for the starting position in fall camp.

2014 Recap
Texas A&M's season started off like gangbusters with a 52-28 road upset of South Carolina, followed by a 73-3 beatdown of Lamar. The next three wins were impressive, too. During the 5-0 run Kenny "Trill" Hill was a Heisman hopeful and heir to Johnny Football's mantle. But then they faced three teams in a row that finished in the top 10 in the Committee's final rankings. The Aggies lost to Mississippi State by 18 and to Ole Miss by 15 and were bombed 59-0 at Alabama. Suddenly Kenny Hill was out of favor as quarterback and replaced by freshman Kyle Allen; Hill was suspended for 2 games and never got his job back or even took another snap. Allen was pretty awful against Louisiana-Monroe in a tight 21-16 game but led them to a huge 41-38 upset of Auburn. They lost to Missouri and LSU by about a touchdown each. In the Liberty Bowl they won a 45-37 shootout win over West Virginia.

Last year's prediction: We ranked the Aggies #26, and you can argue as to whether that was too high or too low but we got their 7-5 record correct. On the schedule chart we picked them as favorites in 6 games; we didn't have them beating South Carolina or Auburn, but gave them Missouri instead. We predicted a drop in the passing game for losing Johnny Manziel and Mike Adams, but it was the running game that suffered instead.

2015 Outlook

aTm 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Arizona State	67%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Ball State	97%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Nevada	96%	W
9/26	Sat	N	*Arkansas	41%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	54%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	39%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Mississippi	27%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	78%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	57%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	100%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	81%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*LSU	27%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 94%

The Aggie schedule starts with a high-profile Power Five matchup with Arizona State in Houston, Texas where we give A&M the home field advantage. They should prevail there and of course in the next two vs. Ball State and Nevada.

The Arkansas game in Arlington, Texas is one of those that is "traditionally recognized" as a neutral field game (like Oklahoma-Texas in Dallas, or Georgia-Florida in Jacksonville) so we classify it as such. It's a tough game, as is the next one (Mississippi State at home) and the one after that (Alabama at home).

The numbers on those games aren't that bad, and the reason is that A&M is not playing any of them on the road. In fact, they don't play a real road game until half the season is over.

The Aggies finally leave the state of Texas to play Mississippi on October 24th. It's their toughest game along with the trip to LSU at the end of the season. They also travel to Vanderbilt for a grand total of three road games in 2015. But they still have a 3-game home stand in November where they face South Carolina, Auburn, and Western Carolina.

Getting to six wins should be easy, but beyond that it's hard to say; there are a lot of questionable outcomes. The cumulative estimate of 8-4 seems to be about right, though they're definitely not counted out of any of these contests. At the high end of their range of potential they could end up in the SEC title game, but there they'd probably have to face Georgia in Atlanta; that would be called a 'neutral field' too.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #18 Michigan State Spartans

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Michigan State Spartans  (Big Ten #2; East #2)

#18	2014 Results	AP #5 USA #5	Strength:#7  Success:#12  Overall:#7
		Record: 11-2	Bowl: Beat Baylor 42-41 (Cotton)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #5 | USA #6 | Lindy's #6 | Athlon #7 | Steele #11 | ESPN #14
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.2%   Playoff odds: 6%

Michigan State has a pretty clear path to an undefeated season—if you take away those pesky games against Oregon and Ohio State, last year's two national championship contenders.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #6 (raw) #6 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #11 (adjusted)

A depleted backfield might cause a dip in ground offense, but the passing game will keep rolling along.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #37 (raw) #45 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #5
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #45 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #5

Connor Cook (3,214 yards, 24 TDs, 8 int) heads into his senior season with quite a bit of momentum from a successful 2014. The trouble this year is that his top two receivers, Tony Lippett (1,198 yards, 11 TDs) and Keith Mumphery (495 yards) are gone. He does have Macgarrett Kings (404 yards) and four others who topped 100 yards back. It all balances out and we see another solid year, but perhaps no better than the previous one.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #21 (raw) #16 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #35 (adj.)

Jeremy Langford led the team with 1,522 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns, and Nick Hill added 622 and 9. Both are gone, as is the #3 rusher leaving #4 RJ Shelton (148 yards), a WR, the leading returnee. The starter this year will be either redshirt freshman Madre London or Gerald Holmes who had 44 yards in 2014. The offensive line isn't in bad shape, with starters Jack Allen, Donavon Clark, and Jack Conklin back, while Kodi Kieler started more than half time. With unproven talent at running back we see a decline.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #1    Pass Defense  per-game: #64   Per-attempt: #21
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #24 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #8	'14 picks: #10
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #31 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #15	'15 picks: #47

Three starters return to the defensive line to try to keep the Spartan rushing defense at #1. Gone is Marcus Rush (7.5 sacks) while Shilique Calhoun (8 sacks) is back. At linebacker Taiwan Jones (8.5 tackles for loss) departs and Ed Davis (7 sacks) was lost over the summer to a knee injury. The secondary has two starters back but top tackler Kurtis Drummond (11 pass breakups) is gone. With 3 of the 4 top tacklers gone the defense looks a bit weaker.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Michael Geiger (14 of 22 field goals) is back but punter Mike Sadler (41.2 average) is gone.
• Return Game:  Macgarrett Kings (6.1 average) is back to return punts, and kickoff returner RJ Shelton (25.6 average, 1 touchdown return) is back, too.
• Turnovers projection:  The Spartans were very lucky with fumbles last year and ended up with a +10 margin, which probably won't happen again. The defense also appears unlikely to match last year's 18 interceptions.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #120 (COLD)
Mark Dantonio had a few rough moments early in his Michigan State tenure but he's had 11 or more wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons, making his job one of the safest in the country bar none.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #34          2014 Recruiting Rank: #30
Recruiting this year went about the same as it normally does, with a good but not great class. It's one of the best in the Big Ten as the conference didn't really excel at recruiting this year, with only Ohio State and Penn State making the top 25.

2014 Recap
Michigan State only had one win over a bowl team after 9 games; most of their 'street cred' came from losing only to Oregon (46-27), and Ohio State (49-37), the two teams that ended up playing for the national title. The Spartans were dominant in their cupcake games, and were beating Nebraska 27-3 but the Cornhuskers came back and almost had a shot near the end. At 7-1 it was assumed they'd beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten, but the Buckeyes had other ideas. The Spartans' last three wins were very good games, beating Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State by 22, 42, and 24. In the Cotton Bowl they fell behind Baylor 41-21 but rallied for a 42-41 win.

Last year's prediction: We had the Spartans a relatively low #15 last year, and they outperformed that as well as our 9-3 projection. But in our game-by-game picks we had the Spartans losing just twice, to Oregon...and Indiana(!)

2015 Outlook

Michigan State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/4	Fri	@	Western Michigan	77%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Oregon	39%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Air Force	97%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	98%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	92%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Rutgers	81%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Michigan	58%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	94%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Nebraska	60%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	90%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Ohio State	7%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	71%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.2%

Michigan State has the same problem this year as they did last year: they play two of the best teams in the country amidst the rest of their reasonable schedule.

After playing Western Michigan on the road (which is good, so that they don't look past the Broncos), they get Oregon at home this year and they will be pumped to get revenge. We still favor the Ducks but there's no reason why the Spartans can't win it this year in East Lansing.

Whatever the outcome, they have a trio of very easy home games following: Air Force, Central Michigan, even Purdue counts. Rutgers on the road is a bit tougher but should put them 5-1 if not 6-0.

Michigan is a wild card this year, and with the game at Ann Arbor it might be tough. Same thing with the game at Nebraska. The Spartans are the better team but either game could be an upset loss. We definitely take MSU over Indiana this year, though.

After Maryland the Spartans travel to Ohio State to take on the Buckeyes, an almost impossible task according to our rating. So even if they manage to beat the Ducks, this one will bite them—or so our numbers say right now. By late November things might look very different.

Given the several tough games on the slate the cumulative projection calls for a 9-3 season, with 10-2 looking pretty good if you take it game-by-game, and 11-1 not out of the question. Likewise, upset losses could pull them down to 8-4 which almost looks like a worst-case assuming nothing goes terribly wrong with injuries, etc. The Spartans have opportunity to be a Playoff contender, for sure: even if they lose to Oregon early they can get back in the race later by beating the Buckeyes.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #19 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets  (ACC #1; Coastal #1)

#19	2014 Results	AP #8 USA #7	Strength:#15  Success:#7  Overall:#12
		Record: 11-3	Bowl: Beat Mississippi State 49-34 (Orange)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #16 | USA #17 | Lindy's #15 | Athlon #18 | Steele #24 | ESPN #22
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 95%   Playoff odds: 3%

Georgia Tech is a team that defies prediction. Usually when they're ranked low in the pre-season they outperform expectations (see last year). This year everyone has them in the top 25. Should they be worried?

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #12 (raw) #9 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #20 (adjusted)

As goes the running game, so goes the Georgia Tech offense, and the running game is liable to take a dip with the loss of 9 of its top 12 rushers.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #123 (raw) #123 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #3
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #124 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #2

Justin Thomas (1,719 yards, 18 TDs, 6 int) was about as successful of a passer as Georgia Tech could ask for. He completed 51% of his attempts, which in and of itself is remarkable for a 'Wreck QB, and his 18:6 ratio was phenomenal. There's bad news and good news, though. The bad news is that his top targets, DeAndre Smelter (715 yards, 7 TDs) and Darren Waller (442 yards, 6 TDs) are gone, with senior Broderick Snoddy (#5 w/100 yards) the top returnee. The good news is, who cares? Georgia Tech is not a passing team anyway.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #2 (raw) #1 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #3 (adj.)

Justin Thomas also led the team in rushing with 1,086 yards and 8 touchdowns. But of the dozen (yes, 12) players who topped 100 rushing yards for Tech only three are back: Thomas, Broderick Snoddy (#6 with 283 yards) and backup QB Tim Byerly (#8 w/204). Gone are Synjyn Days (924 yards), Zach Laskey (851) and the #4, #5, #7, and #9 through #12 from last season. This probably means the Yellow Jackets won't be the #1 rushing team in the nation this year, but they always reload and with the offensive line stronger the dip won't be huge. The line returns senior starters Trey Braun and Bryan Chamberlain, junior Freddie Burden, and Errin Joe and Chris Griffin who both started half-time last year. The new "A" backs in the triple-option will be Snoddy and some newcomer (since Dennis Andrews was dismissed), with "B" back between junior Marcus Allen and Stanford grad transfer Patrick Skov.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #23    Pass Defense  per-game: #103   Per-attempt: #78
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #54 (raw) #37 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #108	'14 picks: #15
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #26 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #99	'15 picks: #20

The 'Wreck defensive line will be bolstered by the return of senior Jabari Hunt-Days who started at linebacker full-time in 2012 (ineligible 2014) and sacks leader KeShun Freeman. At linebacker PJ Davis (#1 with 119 tackles) is back but the other starter in the 4-2-5, Quayshawn Nealy, is gone and his replacement, Anthony Harrell, transferred after being suspended. The best news is in the secondary where four of five starters return. Pass defense is where help is needed, and despite the problems at linebacker the defense as a whole should be better this year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Harrison Butler (11 of 18 field goals) and punter Ryan Rodwell (40.2 yards per punt).
• Return Game:  Jamal Golden is back; he averaged 4.1 yards on punts and 23.7 yards on kickoff returns.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see much change here.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #94 (COOL)
Paul Johnson is a tough sell as a head coach, given that he is going to change the style of play more than just about anyone else in the business. But after 7 seasons Georgia Tech fans are with him...as long as he's winning. He's taken them to a bowl game every year and competed well in the ACC. After two 7-win years there were some questions but last year's 11-3 mark erased most of them. For now.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #24          2014 Recruiting Rank: #62
This year's recruiting class is quite a change from Tech's usual classes, and lately they haven't been so good. It made us wonder whether, in an era of up-tempo passing, whether recruits didn't bother looking at a triple-option school. But guess what? An 11-3 season solves all of those issues.

2014 Recap
Georgia Tech started out 5-0, playing a bit better each week. But the Yellow Jackets were nothing special, as was shown pretty definitively by losses to Duke (31-25) and North Carolina (48-43). But then something happened and Georgia Tech decided to start playing like one of the nation's very best teams. This stretch lasted for five games. Wins over Pitt, Virginia, and North Carolina State weren't about to convince anyone that the Wreck were for real, but beating Clemson 28-6 turned some heads, and beating Georgia 30-24 in overtime showed they were for real. The Yellow Jackets were the last in a line of teams who had their chance to beat Florida State and couldn't quite do it, losing 37-35 in the ACC championship game. But they turned in one last great performance in beating Mississippi State 49-34 in the Orange Bowl to finish 11-3.

Last year's prediction: We predicted that Georgia Tech's ground game would get weaker, which is pretty much a prediction that the team will get weaker. Instead it got stronger and so did the team. We put the Yellow Jackets at #53 and projected a 7-5 season. We got 5 of the game picks wrong, too, including of course the Clemson and Georgia wins at the end. There is some solace in the fact that Lindy's, Athlon, and Phil Steele all ranked the Yellow Jackets at #46 or #47 last year.

2015 Outlook

Georgia Tech 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Tulane	97%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Notre Dame	38%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Duke	75%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	76%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Clemson	48%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	79%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	61%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Virginia	76%	W
11/12	Thu	vs.	*Virginia Tech	61%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Miami FL	59%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Georgia	27%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

Georgia Tech plays two very tough non-conference teams and their toughest ACC game is against an Atlantic opponent. So it's very possible for the Wreck to finish 9-3 or 10-2 and win the ACC Coastal.

Alcorn State and Tulane are just home warmups for the first road game, Notre Dame. Then they play the ACC schedule, then finish with Georgia at home, and that's probably their toughest contest, period. The Yellow Jackets probably go 2-2 outside of the ACC, but don't count them out of any game this year.

In the ACC they should beat Duke, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Virginia for sure. The tighter games are Florida State and Virginia Tech at home, and Miami on the road, but we favor them in all three (note that Virginia Tech has two weeks to prepare for the Yellow Jackets). And Clemson from the Atlantic division is a tossup game.

With all these close-call games, the cumulative projection ends up at 8-4, though game-by-game they get 9 or 10 wins. Either way they have a great chance of getting back to the ACC championship game—for that, Virginia Tech and Miami are more important than even Notre Dame and Georgia.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #20 Virginia Tech Hokies

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Virginia Tech Hokies  (ACC #2; Coastal #2)

#20	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#40  Success:#23  Overall:#37
		Record: 7-6	Bowl: Beat Cincinnati 33-17 (Military)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #29 | USA #29 | Lindy's #24 | Athlon #35 | Steele #20 | ESPN #24
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 4%

Virginia Tech had eight years of double-digit win seasons in a row, but that hasn't happened for the last three years. Is it time for them to start a new streak?

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #96 (raw) #81 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #63 (adjusted)

One way or another the Hokie offense should be a lot more competent this year. We show it coming from an improved passing game, but if the ground game gets its act together then it might happen there instead.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #77 (raw) #83 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #102
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #48 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #111

Michael Brewer's first year as a full-time starter was a bit rocky; he finished with 2,692 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. With five of last year's six top targets back he should do a lot better. The top trio of Isaiah Ford (709 yards), Bucky Hodges (526), and Cam Phillips (498) returns, and they still have Demitri Knowles who had 641 yards in '13, and TE Kalvin Cline is back from medical redshirt. Protection was a big issue last year (34 sacks) and one that probably won't go away with three O-Line starters gone, but with all the targets available Brewer will feel more like he did at Texas Tech when he completed 71%, not last year's 59%.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #89 (raw) #72 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #69 (adj.)

The Hokies return almost their full complement of running backs from last year, but the question is, which ones will play? JC Coleman (#1 with 533 yards) seems to be the top option, but #2 Marshawn Williams (475) is still recovering from an ACL tear and will probably have to redshirt. #3 Shai McKenzie (269) is in the same boat but is more likely to play this year. Trey Edmunds (#5 w/97 yards last year, 675 in '13) is back at full strength now. In any case the problem is not lack of options in the backfield but the offensive line where three starters are gone. Augie Conte is back with Johnathan McLaughlin, and Wyatt Teller started half-time as a freshman. Can the running backs stay injury-free this year? It's possible that the Hokies could be a strong running team this year but we project mild improvement.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #19    Pass Defense  per-game: #21   Per-attempt: #25
Defense 8 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #13 (raw) #9 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #3	'14 picks: #64
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #5 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #2	'15 picks: #34

As good as Virginia Tech was up front on defense last year, they should be even better in 2015. All four starters return to the defensive line and with Dadi Nicolas (9 sacks plus 9.5 tackles for loss) and Ken Ekanem (9.5 sacks) back, as well as the return of 2013 starter Luther Maddy (6.5 sacks in '13) the pass rush could be even better than last year. Only one starter is back at linebacker—Deon Clarke (5 sacks)—but three return to the secondary including Chuck Clarke (11 pass breakups) and Kendall Fuller (15 pass breakups); further, corner Brandon Facyson (5 interceptions) returns from redshirting last season. All of this makes Virginia Tech probably one of the best defenses in the nation.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter AJ Hughes (39.9 average) is back along with kicker Joey Slye (20 of 28 FG).
• Return Game:  Greg Stroman (6.9 average on punt returns) and Demitri Knowles (18.0 on kickoffs) are both back. Knowles had a touchdown return as a freshman (2012).
• Turnovers projection:  Michael Brewer should cut down on the interceptions a bit, while the defense probably picks up a few more than last year's 12.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #15 (HOT)
According to our formula, Frank Beamer is on the hot seat. What it doesn't take into account is that he's Frank Beamer—sure, there are many Hokie fans who think it's time for him to move on, but putting him #15 definitely overestimates that. The key to this ranking is expectation, which Beamer himself has created. Over a 3 decade span Virginia Tech has averaged almost 8 1/2 wins, and had 8 straight years of double-digit wins from 2004 to 2011. The last three years of 7, 8, and 7 fall short of that. But even in this what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, Beamer isn't going to be sent packing. He's set to coach through 2016 and he will.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #23          2014 Recruiting Rank: #21
Any worries about recruits not signing because Beamer is getting old and won't be coaching much longer? They're not showing up in the actual recruiting results, which again has Beamer bringing in a strong class that ranks among the best in the ACC.

2014 Recap
Virginia Tech was an up and down team, but before people knew that, they looked like a national title contender. That was all because of the Ohio State upset. A 35-21 road win, no less. By the next weekend it was still a hot topic, so much so that when the Hokies lost to East Carolina 28-21, people wondered if the Pirates might be a contender, too. But when Virginia Tech lost to Georgia Tech 27-24, the national title talk stopped, and as the losses—to Pitt, Miami, Boston College—mounted, giving the Hokies a 4-5 record, the script was flipped to: how did Ohio State lose to them? The only logical conclusion is that the Ohio State game itself was a fluke. It's an outlier on Virginia Tech's chart as well as Ohio State's chart. The Hokies went on to upset Duke, who led the ACC Coastal at the time, but followed that with a double overtime loss to lowly Wake Forest—a game that ended in a zero to zero tie in regulation. They bounced back to beat rival Virginia 24-20 to achieve bowl eligibility. The Hokies went on to top Cincy 33-17 in the Military Bowl to avoid having their first losing season since 1992.

Last year's prediction: We got their ranking roughly correct, as the Hokies ended #40 and we had put them #38. We projected too good of a record (8-4), and we made the Hokies favorites in 10 games. The other two? Ohio State and North Carolina, both games that they won. Add their six actual losses and our game-by-game picks for Virginia Tech were dismal: 4 correct, 8 incorrect. But then again, few were good at predicting what the Hokies were going to do in real time, let alone before the season started.

2015 Outlook

Virginia Tech 2015 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sun	vs.	Ohio State	18%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Furman	100%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Purdue	80%	W
9/26	Sat	@	East Carolina	83%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	78%	W
10/9	Fri	vs.	*NC State	76%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Miami FL	57%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Duke	84%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Boston College	75%	W
11/12	Thu	@	*Georgia Tech	40%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	74%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Virginia	74%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

After Labor Day weekend it's smooth sailing for the Hokies. They have a breather vs. Furman, then travel to Purdue and East Carolina for what should be mildy-challenging wins. Back at home Pittsburgh and North Carolina State will be tougher opponents but should be wins, too.

The game in Miami will be tough but it's winnable, and then Duke and Boston College could make it eight wins in a row for Virginia Tech. But let's go back to the beginning of the season, for the game that will be more important than all of those: Ohio State.

Last year when Virginia Tech upset Ohio State in the Horseshoe it rocked the college football world. A win by Virginia Tech this year at home would be an even bigger shock given that the Buckeyes are the first-ever unanimous #1 in the AP pre-season poll. We give the Hokies about a 1 in 5 chance to make it happen. Last year we said 1 in 4.

So assuming a loss there, an 8-game winning streak would be just what the doctor ordered. We show it probably coming to an end at Georgia Tech, but a 10-2 regular season is a solid possibility.

Of course, given how unpredictable and injury-prone the team was, counting on the Hokies to be consistent might be unwarranted; the cumulative estimate for an 8-4 season might be more reliable though the most likely outcome by our own numbers is 9-3. In any case, between regular-season wins, a possible ACC title game appearance, and a bowl game, it's clear that Virginia Tech has a good chance to get back to double-digits in the win column again.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #21 Stanford Cardinal

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Stanford Cardinal  (Pac-12 #4; North #2)

#21	2014 Results	AP #27 USA #30	Strength:#20  Success:#27  Overall:#25
		Record: 8-5	Bowl: Beat Maryland 45-21 (Foster Farms)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #21 | USA #21 | Lindy's #26 | Athlon #24 | Steele #8 | ESPN #16
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 95%   Playoff odds: 3%

Stanford has about 8 wins on their schedule, but two tossup games—against Notre Dame and UCLA—could turn a good season great. If they can beat USC and Oregon then the season will really be special.

Offense 9 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #85 (raw) #72 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #58 (adjusted)

We see incremental improvements in both the running and passing game, bringing the offense back up to par for the FBS.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #67 (raw) #87 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #47
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #70 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #36

Kevin Hogan (2,792 yards, 19 TDs, 8 int) heads into his senior year looking for his best stats yet. Though he loses top receiver Ty Montgomery (604 yards) the next 7 targets down the line are back including Devon Cajuste (557 yards) and TE Austin Hooper (499 as a freshman).

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #72 (raw) #56 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #42 (adj.)

Remound Wright led the team with 601 yards and 11 touchdowns but the committee was in full effect as three other backs had 300+ yards. Two return including #4 Christian McCaffrey (300 yards) who may get the starting job and of course Barry Sanders Jr (#3 with 315) the guy everyone in the nation wants to see have a breakout year. The offensive line returns four starters; they lose first-round draft pick Andreus Peat but Kyle Murphy, Joshua Garnett, Graham Shuler, and Johnny Caspers are all back. With a great line and talented backfield plus a running quarterback (Kevin Hogan netted 295 last year) production should be up.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #7    Pass Defense  per-game: #4   Per-attempt: #2
Defense 4 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #1 (raw) #1 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #4	'14 picks: #75
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #4 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #9	'15 picks: #103

Last year we predicted Stanford's defense would fall to #2 but when the dust settled they were #1 for a 2nd straight year. This time around, with just four starters back, it's going to be tough to hold onto the top spot. All three starters are gone from the defensive line including Henry Anderson (8.5 sacks) but they bring in grad transfer Brennan Scarlett from Cal. At linebacker top tackler Blake Martinez (102 tackles) and Kevin Anderson (5.5 sacks) are back while two starters depart including James Vaughters (6.5 sacks). Reserve Peter Kalambayi (6.5 sacks) will take a starting job as a sophomore. The secondary loses two starters as well from Stanford's lockdown pass defense. There are a lot of losses so staying #1 doesn't look feasible, but it should be a short drop.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Cardinal lose both punter Ben Rhyne (39.8 average) and Jordan Williamson (15 of 22 FGs).
• Return Game:  Ty Montgomery was Stanford's return ace, with 2 touchdowns on punts (19.8 average) last year and 25.2 yards per kickoff return. Alas, he departs.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense loses most of their pass breakups from last year which points to fewer interceptions; they only had 12 last year so it can't drop too far.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #86 (COOL)
David Shaw has kept the ball rolling since Jim Harbaugh's departure and the only thing that keeps him out of the "Cold" quadrant is that last year's 8 win season was the first lower than 11 wins since 2009. It's still much higher than long-term expectations at Stanford which run around 5 1/2 wins per year.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #27          2014 Recruiting Rank: #27
Shaw continues to recruit at a high level, especially for Stanford historically, with another borderline top 25 class.

2014 Recap
It was clear early on that the Stanford offense wasn't up to the task of competing for the Pac-12 crown.  They could hold USC to 13 points, but only scored 10 themselves. They shut out Army, but only scored 35 points. They beat Washington 20-13, then lost to Notre Dame 17-14 and already their national title hopes were gone. The defense was good enough to beat the bad Pac-12 teams but the offense wasn't strong enough to score more than 10, 16, or 17 against the good ones. Finally, though, they put things together against UCLA for their best performance of the season—on the road, even, beating the Bruins 31-10 to finish 7-5 in the regular season, and a 45-21 spanking of Maryland gave them an 8th win.

Last year's prediction: Like everyone else we put Stanford just outside the top ten (at #11). We projected an 8-4 record which nearly came true. The game-by-game chart was a mess—we picked Stanford to beat USC, Notre Dame, and Utah, and lose to Washington and UCLA. So they were 7-5, and in picking their games, so were we.

2015 Outlook

Stanford 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Northwestern	77%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	96%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*USC	26%	L
9/25	Fri	@	*Oregon State	93%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	62%	W
10/15	Thu	vs.	*UCLA	52%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Washington	92%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Washington State	75%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Colorado	71%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	33%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*California	62%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	53%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

Stanford has the usual big hurdles to clear if they want to have a great season as well as a couple of key close games but overall, they should be very solid and matching last year's 8 wins should be a minimum goal.

Kicking off with a road game vs. Northwestern should help them prepare for the rest of the season; Central Florida at home is more of a breather before going to USC for their first major roadblock. They should rebound vs. Oregon State and probably even beat Arizona at home and should be around 4-1 at this point.

UCLA is the first of the games that separate a good season from a great one. They get the Bruins at home and we call it basically a pick'em. The Cardinal should beat Washington, Washington State, and Colorado before facing Oregon, another probable loss though Stanford has managed some close wins lately in the series.

Cal will be tough but we pick a win at home for Stanford. Then they host Notre Dame and that should be a close one, too. The cumulative estimate yields an 8-4 finish but again, that should be a minimum goal; if they take care of business they'll have 8 wins with 10-2 being a couple of coin flips away.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #22 Florida State Seminoles

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Florida State Seminoles  (ACC #3; Atlantic #1)

#22	2014 Results	AP #5 USA #6	Strength:#25  Success:#3  Overall:#8
		Record: 13-1	Bowl: Lost to Oregon 59-20 (Rose)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #10 | USA #8 | Lindy's #12 | Athlon #9 | Steele #9 | ESPN #21
		Record: 9-3	Bowl odds: 99.5%   Playoff odds: 8%

Last year's FSU team was the luckiest in recent memory, 7-0 in close games en route to another undefeated regular season. They didn't even compare to 2013's dominant team and this year without Jameis Winston's magic to bail them out they might have a season more fitting for their actual Strength. They also might end up in the Playoff again, as their schedule is not exactly terrifying.

Offense 4 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #35 (raw) #22 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #44 (adjusted)

Losing Jameis Winston isn't a good thing for the offense but it's not what hurts them the most, as Everett Golson should do a pretty good job of replacing him. They lose key receivers and most of their offensive line, and that's why the offense looks much less effective this year.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #14 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #40
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #29 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #83

Jameis Winston (3,907 yards, 25 TDs, 18 interceptions) wasn't the same player that won the Heisman trophy (40:10 ratio last year) which will make last year's stats a little easier to replace. Sean Maguire (339 yards, 1:2) is next in line but Notre Dame grad transfer Everett Golson (3,445 yards, 29:14) is the better talent. The bigger problem is the loss of Rashad Greene (1,365 rec yards, 7 TDs) and Nick O'Leary (618 yards, 6 TDs). They still have Travis Rudolph (555 yards) and Jesus Wilson (527 yards). The offensive line is a concern too, with four starters gone and protection will be an issue for the new QB. Maguire knows the offense but struggled last year, while Golson had his problems but would do about as good a job replacing Winston as anyone. It's the loss of receivers as much as than anything that downgrades the passing game, but there are several reasons to think things won't run as smoothly this year.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #98 (raw) #61 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #99 (adj.)

Dalvin Cook (1,008 yards, 8 TDs) turned it up at the end of last year as a freshman and he's back, after some mid-summer questions as to his availability were resolved. #2 Karlos Williams (689 yards, 11 TDs) is gone, however, and the bigger concern is the offensive line. Four starters are gone including first-round draft choice Cameron Erving. Sophomore Roderick Johnson is the only one back, and Cook's late-season momentum might be disrupted. Assuming Everett Golson wins the QB job he could contribute here, too, as he had 283 rushing yards (8 TDs) at Notre Dame.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #39    Pass Defense  per-game: #90   Per-attempt: #53
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #52 (raw) #43 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #118	'14 picks: #51
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #34 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #118	'15 picks: #36

For years Florida State had one of the most fearsome pass rushes in college football; last year they averaged just over 1 sack per game. It doesn't look like things will get better this year; the defensive line returns two starters but Mario Edwards (8 tackles for loss) departs. Both starting linebackers return to the 4-2-5 including Reggie Northrup (122 tackles) but key reserve Matthew Thomas is out for the year. The secondary has 3 starters back; they lose PJ Williams (10 pass breakups) but Jalen Ramsey (12 pass breakups) returns. Overall the four top tacklers are back and the defense will rebound a bit but not match 2013's heights when it was among the very best in the nation.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  FSU has superstar kicker Robert Aguayo (27 of 30 FG last year) back again, along with punter Cason Beatty (41.0 average).
• Return Game:  Kermit Whitfield is back to return kickoffs (20.8 average); he had a touchdown return in 2013. But Rashad Greene (10.7 on punts) is gone.
• Turnovers projection:  As good as Jameis Winston was last year he threw a lot of interceptions (18) and with Sean Maguire's 2 that's 20 total. Everett Golson threw 14 last year and fumbled 8 times, but the fumbles probably won't happen again. It's possible that FSU has fewer turnovers with Golson at the helm, but either way it doesn't get worse compared to last year.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #126 (COLD)
Jimbo Fisher has lived up to Bobby Bowden's legacy in the W column; in the last three years he's won 12, 14, and 13 games. That puts him at the very top of the list in terms of safest coaching positions in the land. There's a bit of controversy with his unyielding support of Winston, and several other FSU players have been in trouble recently. If he weren't winning he might be in warm water, especially at FSU where expectations are very, very high. So far he's exceeding them, though.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #14          2014 Recruiting Rank: #3
FSU chugs along in recruiting, one of the few non-SEC teams that consistently ranks at or near the top ten. In this year's smaller group Fisher still brought in four more consensus 5-star players: wide receiver George Campbell, corner Tavarus McFadden, safety Derwin James (all from Florida) and defensive end Josh Sweat from Virginia who may start the first game due to injury issues the defense has been having.

2014 Recap
Compared to 2013's Seminoles, 2014's model didn't impress. But they did win. And win, and win, and win. Not since Ohio State of 2002 was there a team that looked so bad while winning, but kept winning no matter what. From the first game against Oklahoma State (37-31) something looked wrong. But we ignored it, thinking that one game doesn't mean anything. The win over The Citadel was extremely weak—but they didn't take the game seriously, right? They almost lost to Clemson (23-17 OT), but they didn't have Jameis Winston (still, compare it to 2013's 51-14 road win). They were behind at NC State big time but rallied. By the Notre Dame game they were 6-0 and it was still hard to tell if they were any good. The narrow win (31-27) over a questionable Notre Dame team didn't answer anything. Nor did the comeback win against Louisville, the narrow B.C. win, the Miami comeback...eventually it became clear that this was going to happen to any team that wasn't overwhelmingly better than the Seminoles. They escaped Florida and Georgia Tech, and looking back, it's quite an accomplishment. Nine wins over bowl teams, three wins over Committee top 25 teams. Still, they beat a lot of good teams, but no great ones. And they barely beat the good ones. It took a game against a great team to finally expose the Seminoles as a pale imitation of the 2013 national championship team as Oregon pasted FSU 59-20. It also showed the real problem with FSU in 2014: the defense, formerly a top five unit, just wasn't very good in 2014.

Last year's prediction: Of course we put FSU #1—how could we not? They were so dominant in 2013 and Jameis Winston was back along with enough defensive starters to keep the team a clear #1. We downgraded their rating quite a bit but they were still so far ahead of the rest of the field that we predicted a 12-0 finish. We were right about that but not the way it happened—with close calls nearly every week. Even before the Oregon debacle they obviously weren't the best team in the country, and it was mainly the fault of the defense, which fell from #4 to #43 in adjusted scoring allowed. We predicted the D would fall, but only to #8.

2015 Outlook

Florida State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Texas State	97%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	South Florida	98%	W
9/18	Fri	@	*Boston College	74%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	86%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Miami FL	73%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	83%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	39%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	95%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Clemson	45%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*NC State	75%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Chattanooga	92%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Florida	47%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.5%

Florida State is good enough that they can win all their games again and go 12-0 in the regular season for a third straight year. The question is whether they'll have last year's luck. They'll need it to win close road games against Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Florida.

Apart from that, the season should be smooth sailing. Texas State and South Florida are near-gimmes at home, with Boston College and Wake Forest the easiest ACC road games of the year. They get Miami at home this year as well as Louisville. They had trouble with 3 out of the 4 of those ACC foes last year but with a little luck they'll be 6-0 at mid-season.

We rate Georgia Tech as the hardest game on their slate; they beat the Yellow Jackets by 2 points last year on a neutral field, now they face them on the road. Survive that, and two games later they travel to Clemson to face a team they needed overtime to beat last year at home. And they end the season at Florida; they beat the Gators by 5 at home last year.

The pitfalls are spaced out over the 2nd half of the season, and as we said with luck the Seminoles could go undefeated again, and another trip to the College Football Playoff is not out of the question at all. But last year's luck—seven games won by a touchdown or less?—isn't going to happen again. We think they'll lose somewhere along the way and maybe even get upset this year, winning 9, 10, or 11 games, but not 12-0 again.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #23 Arizona Wildcats

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Arizona Wildcats  (Pac-12 #5; South #3)

#23	2014 Results	AP #19 USA #17	Strength:#30  Success:#6  Overall:#22
		Record: 10-4	Bowl: Lost to Boise State 38-30
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #22 | USA #22 | Lindy's #19 | Athlon #30 | Steele #33 | ESPN #27
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 98%   Playoff odds: 2%

This may look like a downgrade but we actually consider Arizona to be a better team this year. They probably won't match the success they had last year though, as they greatly outperformed their Strength.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #30 (raw) #29 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #24 (adjusted)

Anu Solomon had a great freshman year and we don't expect a sophomore slump.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #22 (raw) #36 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #108
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #24 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #119

Anu Solomon (3,793 yards, 28 TDs, 9 interceptions) was enough of a talent to force Rich Rodriguez to abandon his usual run-first bias in favor of throwing the ball 50% of the time. This year with receivers Cayleb Jones (1,109 yards, 9 TDs) and Samajie Grant (718 yards, 6 TDs) back things look even better. #3 Austin Hill (635 yards) is gone but he's the only one missing out of the top five. The O-Line allowed 40 sacks last year and with three starters gone that could get worse, but passing production should be top 25 level.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #47 (raw) #39 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #50 (adj.)

Nick Wilson (1,375 yards, 16 touchdowns) is back while #2 Terris Jones-Grigsby (567 yards) departs. Anu Solomon (291) was the #3 rusher. The offensive line returns just two starters, however, senior Cayman Bundage and sophomore Jacob Alsadek, though transfer Freddie Tagaloa started 7 games for Cal in 2013.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #61    Pass Defense  per-game: #88   Per-attempt: #64
Defense 6 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #81 (raw) #36 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #25	'14 picks: #59
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #45 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #18	'15 picks: #90

Two of three starters return to the Wildcat defensive line. Last year's solid pass rush could be even better as Scooby Wright (#1 tackler with 163, 14 sacks, 15 tackles for loss) returns at linebacker, but key reserve Cody Ippolito was recently lost to an ACL injury. The 5-man secondary is hit hard with three lost starters as Jared Tevis (120 tackles) is gone along with Jonathan McKnight (13 pass breakups) but Will Parks (12 tackles for loss) returns. The defense isn't quite as good as last year's model as five of the top seven tacklers are good but Scooby Wright will keep things under control and should again be the nation's top defensive player.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Casey Skowron (20 of 28 field goals) is back along with punter Drew Riggleman (46.1 average).
• Return Game:  DaVonte Neal, the team's #6 pass catcher last year (now at cornerback) averaged 11.1 yards per punt return with one touchdown. Tyrell Johnson (23.7 on kickoffs) is also back though he may miss a few early games.
• Turnovers projection:  The factors here basically cancel each other out.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #85 (COOL)
Rich Rodriguez' Arizona experience has been very different from his Michigan one. Here he immediately turned the program to winning and has kept it up, with 8-5, 8-5, and 10-4 records in three years. He's about as safe as you can be outside of first-year coaches and those with Top 25 teams each year.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #29          2014 Recruiting Rank: #22
This year's class is quite good, and right in the thick of the Pac-12 in rank.

2014 Recap
The early knock on Arizona was that they were beating subpar competition and barely escaping with the win, which was true vs. UTSA (26-23) and Nevada (35-28). That talk stopped after they beat Oregon 31-24. But once Arizona had a loss of their own (28-26 to USC), that win was excused as the result of Oregon missing a few offensive linemen. It was clear that if they wanted to get in the Playoff they'd need to beat Oregon twice, a pretty heady task. Arizona's loss to USC was excusable, too, coming on a missed field goal after an amazing comeback, but UCLA beat them 17-7 and seemingly ended their Pac-12 title hopes. The Wildcats pressed on, beating Washington by a point, clubbing Utah senseless 42-10, and edging rival ASU 42-35 to get a rematch with Oregon. It wasn't close this time—51-13—but at least they'd earned the right to try. The Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State was a good game but they came up short, 38-30.

Last year's prediction: Just like in our Arizona State review, we got Arizona's rank pretty much correct as they finished just #30 in Strength. But they were #6 in Success so something was definitely off in our 6-6 projection. Arizona went 10-2 during the regular season, and our game-by-game chart only showed 5 wins! True, it also showed close losses to Washington State (50%), Washington (47%), and Arizona State (50%) that could easily have led to an 8-4 prediction. Then, the only games we would have gotten wrong were the Oregon and Utah wins. Which is why we wrote "this year's record is not so easy to predict."

2015 Outlook

Arizona 2015 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	UTSA	99%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Nevada	85%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Northern Arizona	99%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	53%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Stanford	38%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	97%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Colorado	68%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	85%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Washington	80%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*USC	24%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Utah	63%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Arizona State	42%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

This year we expect another very good year from the Wildcats, but closer to the 8-win totals they had the first two seasons under Rodriguez. However, if the ball bounces their way again it could be another memorable year.

The early schedule is forgiving. The first three games should all be wins despite a number of players who may be missing due to injuries; these should be over by the time the UCLA game rolls around and that's good because they'll need everyone to be at the best in that tossup game.

Then they travel to Stanford and that will be even harder. But after that the Wildcats should embark on a 4-game win streak to put them anywhere from 7-2 to 9-0. If it's the latter then the game at USC will be huge. The Trojans probably win that one at home and the Wildcats likely split Utah and Arizona State, with a win more likely in Salt Lake City and a loss in Tempe.

We opened the review by saying Arizona overachieved last year and probably won't do as well this year. But looking at the percentages we assign, there's definitely a path to a very good season. No game is less than a 1 in 4 chance, and most of the "losses" above are tossups or very closely-contested. So a repeat of 10-2 isn't far-fetched; in fact, the bottom chart shows an 18% chance of 10 or more wins.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #24 California Golden Bears

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California Golden Bears  (Pac-12 #6; North #3)

#24	2014 Results	AP NR USA NR	Strength:#51  Success:#78  Overall:#53
		Record: 5-7	Bowl: None
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #42 | USA NR | Lindy's #44 | Athlon #47 | Steele #36 | ESPN #35
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 91%   Playoff odds: 1%

Last year we called for a quantum leap in Cal's Strength rating; it happened, and now we think they're going for round two.

Offense 8 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #13 (raw) #17 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #6 (adjusted)

Last year's powerful offense should get even better as the key players all return.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #6 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #85
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #5 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #85

Jared Goff (3,973 yards, 35 TDs, 7 interceptions) threw the ball a lot, got good results, and turned it over very little. The only thing you could ask for is a better completion percentage (62% last year) and it could happen with 7 receivers who topped 250 yards back in 2015 including #1 Kevin Lawler (701 yards, 9 TDs), Stephen Anderson (661 yards), and #4 Bryce Treggs (583). Only #3 Chris Harper (634 yards) is gone. We see Goff topping 4,000 yards rather easily.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #87 (raw) #67 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #44 (adj.)

Daniel Lasco (1,115 yards, 12 TDs) is back along with a trio of backups who combined for over 600 yards including last year's leader Khalid Muhammed (215 in '14, 445 in '13). The offensive line returns starters Chris Barrayo, Steven Moore, and Jordan Rigsbee. With a loaded backfield the running game should at least be above average this year.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #41    Pass Defense  per-game: #127   Per-attempt: #115
Defense 7 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #124 (raw) #105 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #112	'14 picks: #56
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #73 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #98	'15 picks: #39

Cal's defense was poor last year and the culprit was clearly the pass defense. Though they lose Michael Lowe from the secondary things should improve with more big plays (sacks and interceptions). The defensive line is led by Mustafa Jalil, and linebackers Michael Barton, Hardy Nickerson, and Jalen Jefferson are back. Though they're pretty far down and it will be hard to even reach "average" level for the FBS, the defense should definitely climb out of the Bottom 25.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker James Langford (11 of 17 FG) is gone but punter Cole Leininger (39.8 yards) is back.
• Return Game:  WR and punt fielder Chris Harper (7.7 ave) is gone but #5 WR Trevor Davis, who averaged 32.6 yards on kickoffs thanks to two touchdown returns, is back.
• Turnovers projection:  Cal might improve a little bit in each area, but turnovers are random enough that it might not pan out.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #27 (WARM)
Sonny Dykes helped erase bad memories of his 1-11 debut with a 5-7 year, but it's time for a winning season at Cal.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #26          2014 Recruiting Rank: #66
Dykes' latest class is very good and helps establish that the program is going in the right direction. That argument could come in handy if Cal doesn't reach a bowl game this year.

2014 Recap 
Cal started with a good road win at Northwestern, 31-24 and crushed Sacramento State before falling to Arizona 49-45. They won two more Pac-12 shootouts with Colorado (59-56 2OT) and Washington State (60-59) to start 4-1. They won only once more, defeating Oregon State 45-31, but in the end the seven teams that beat them all had 8 or more wins.

Last year's prediction: We suggested that Cal could improve greatly from 1-11, jumping from #96 in our power rating in 2013 to a projected #59. They ended up at #51. We projected a 4-8 record and they made it to 5-7. On the schedule chart we only had Cal a favorite in 2 games, however (this is why the cumulative projection is our official pick) and they won both those games, plus three more.

2015 Outlook

California 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Grambling State	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	89%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Texas	55%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Washington	80%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	85%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Utah	46%	L
10/22	Thu	@	*UCLA	32%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*USC	39%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Oregon	17%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	97%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Stanford	38%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	59%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 91%

Cal's season once again might start with a bang and end with a bit of a fizzle, but this time it should end with the Golden Bears eligible for the post-season.

Grambling is not good competition for a strong FBS team, and that's what Cal should be this year. San Diego State probably won't be much tougher, but Texas definitely will be, and that game is in Austin. We give the Bears a very good shot at winning it.

Then the Bears take on both Washington teams back to back, and we like Cal in both. That means a 5-0 start is very possible, or at least a repeat of last year's 4-1 beginning. If the former, then they might be able to extend their run with a win at Utah, but that may be pushing it.

UCLA and USC are both possible wins, but it will be very tough to pull off one let alone two. And Oregon on the road is their hardest game of the year, but they still have a decent shot at getting an upset (in shoot-out fashion, of course). They finish with Oregon State (should be a win), Stanford on the road (probably a tough loss) and Arizona State at home (tough win).

Add them up and we see the Bears in the post-season. It might not be pretty—there will still be a lot of crazy-high numbers on both sides of the scoreboard—but if the defense makes the gains it should, then this year's shootouts should be against a higher caliber of opponent.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #25 Arizona State Sun Devils

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Arizona State Sun Devils  (Pac-12 #7; South #4)

#25	2014 Results	AP #12 USA #14	Strength:#29  Success:#14  Overall:#24
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Duke 36-31
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #15 | USA #16 | Lindy's #14 | Athlon #13 | Steele #27 | ESPN #20
		Record: 7-5	Bowl odds: 87%   Playoff odds: 1%

ASU has become a trendy pick to challenge for a Pac-12 crown—even a Playoff spot, as Kirk Herbstreit recently predicted for the Sun Devils—but we think last year's team overachieved a bit and this one may come back down to earth.

Offense 6 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #18 (raw) #19 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #29 (adjusted)

The offense will miss the Kelly-Strong connection, but should be just fine anyway.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #33 (raw) #28 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #117
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #61 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #117

Taylor Kelly (2,114 yards, 22 TDs, 5 int) played hurt much of his final year and his skills will be missed; Mike Bercovici (1,445 yards, 12 TDs, 4 int) did a good job filling in as needed and he'll take the reigns this season. The problem is at receiver where Jaelen Strong (1,165 yards, 10 TDs) is gone. Despite returning six players who topped 100 yards including DJ Foster (#2 w/688) who moves to receiver from running back, the loss of Strong and #3 Cameron Smith (596 yards) will be felt. Protection was pretty bad, too, at 39 sacks and pressure is likely to remain a problem—thought Bercovici was sacked just 9 times to Kelly's 29. We're probably downgrading the passing game too much, but in each area of consideration things were stronger last year.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #58 (raw) #57 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #59 (adj.)

DJ Foster had 1,081 yards last year but #2 Demario Richard (478) will be the main tailback this year as Foster moves to wide receiver. The offensive line should be decent enough with three starters back: Nick Kelly, Vi Teofilo, and Christian Westerman. The main thing they'll miss is Taylor Kelly's running (256 yards last year) as Mike Bercovici (16 yds) doesn't do that.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #46    Pass Defense  per-game: #96   Per-attempt: #80
Defense 9 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #78 (raw) #49 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #13	'14 picks: #32
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #36 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #12	'15 picks: #54

Last year ASU almost had a top 10 pass rush (in raw sacks, with 39) and despite the loss of Marcus Hardison (10 sacks) from the defensive line we see it remaining just as strong. The linebacker corps returns three of four starters including Laiu Moeakiola (5 sacks) and Salamo Fiso (7.5 tackles for loss) while the secondary also has three starters returning. They lose top tackler Damarious Randall (106 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss) but #2 Jordan Simmons (100 tackles) is back. The defense should take a solid step up.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Matt Haack (43.3 average) and placekicker Zane Gonzalez (22 of 27 field goals) are both back.
• Return Game:  Kyle Middlebrooks was the team's main return man, averaging 6.1 on punts and 22.2 on kickoffs; he's gone.
• Turnovers projection:  Overall it looks like turnovers will be worse for ASU this year. They were lucky on fumbles (+9 margin) and interception situation (QB and defense) looks a bit worse.

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #87 (COOL)
Todd Graham has improved the program since he got here, going 8-5, 10-4, and 10-3. This puts him in very safe territory—as long as he doesn't break any rules like his son Bo did, which led to his resignation as running backs coach.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #20          2014 Recruiting Rank: #16
Back-to-back top 25 recruiting class give hope that ASU's current run will continue. It's among the best in the Pac-12 this year.

2014 Recap
Arizona State was 3-0 against cupcake competition before getting destroyed by UCLA 62-27. Remarkably, from there the Sun Devils turned around and beat USC on a hail Mary—then went on a 5-game winning streak, beating 5 bowl teams. Unfortunately after crushing Notre Dame 55-31 they changed gears again and fell in overtime to Oregon State. They beat Washington State before losing a shootout with Arizona 42-35. In the Sun Bowl they denied Duke a bowl victory again, 36-31.

Last year's prediction: We ranked ASU #22 last year, and we think we got it basically correct. Sure, they finished 10-3 and in the top 15 in the polls, but with an final Strength of #29 and Overall power rating of #24, we're happy with our prediction. Of course, we projected a 7-5 season and the Sun Devils went 9-3, and in the end it's wins and losses that matter. In the game-by-game picks we missed the wins over USC and Washington, while giving them the Arizona game (50% by our odds).

2015 Outlook

Arizona State 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Texas A&M	33%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Cal Poly	98%	W
9/18	Fri	vs.	New Mexico	96%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*USC	39%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*UCLA	32%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	81%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Utah	45%	L
10/29	Thu	vs.	*Oregon	30%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Washington State	72%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Washington	90%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	57%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*California	41%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 85%

This year's projection is almost a carbon-copy of last year's, except there are fewer pure tossups games and we give the Sun Devils fewer wins outright in the game-by-game picks.

We count the Texas A&M game as a home game for the Aggies, which is part of the reason why ASU is an underdog. The next two games are practically freebies for the Sun Devils before they face USC and UCLA back-to-back. If ASU can come out of the first five games at 3-2 or better, they are doing ok.

Colorado at home should be a win, then Utah is perhaps the closest-contested game on the schedule. Oregon looks like a loss (doesn't it always?) but then Washington and Washington State are ripe for the picking (insert Apple Cup joke here). The Sun Devils get the all-important home field edge against Arizona this season, but they travel to California and that may be a very tough game this year.

As usual there is a lot of parity in the Pac-12 and Arizona State is caught in the middle of it. With a 9-game schedule and the added burden of a tough non-conference opponent (ASU has one every year, it seems), only a top ten team could carve out a superlative season. We don't think the Sun Devils are quite there.

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2015 Pre-season Rankings: #26 Clemson Tigers

SportsRatings 2015 College Football Pre-season Top 128

Clemson Tigers  (ACC #4; Atlantic #2)

#26	2014 Results	AP #15 USA #15	Strength:#18  Success:#17  Overall:#21
		Record: 10-3	Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 40-6 (Russell Athletic)
	2015 Outlook	Picks: AP #12 | USA #12 | Lindy's #9 | Athlon #14 | Steele #22 | ESPN #19
		Record: 8-4	Bowl odds: 96%   Playoff odds: 4%

The lockdown Clemson defense loses all but 2 starters but the team's ACC title hopes are still alive as their toughest games are still 50/50 propositions. Trouble is, they have about six of those.

Offense 5 ret. starters	2014 Scoring Offense: #52 (raw) #51 (adjusted for opposition)
	2015 Projected Scoring Offense: #50 (adjusted)

If Deshaun Watson comes back 100% and stays injury-free the whole season Clemson's offense could be very good. But with the offensive line depleted, his odds of staying healthy decrease.

Passing Game	2014 Passing Rank: #40 (raw) #49 (adjusted)	2014 Sacks Allowed (raw): #70
	2015 Projected Passing Rank: #43 (adjusted)	2015 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #98

Cole Stoudt (1,892 yards, 9 TDs, 10 interceptions) started at the beginning of the season and then later on whenever Deshaun Watson (1,466 yards, 14 TDs, 2 int) was hurt. Watson was clearly better but rarely healthy, but he's back while Stoudt moves on. Top receivers Mike Williams (1,030 yards) and Artavis Scott (965 yards) are both back along with five of six others who topped 100 yards. The offensive line returns just one starter which is a problem, particularly when it comes to keeping Watson healthy. And that's the 64K question; hurt twice during the 2014 season, will Watson really make it the whole way in '15? We still call for production to increase, but not by much.

Rushing

2014 Rushing Rank: #91 (raw) #87 (adjusted)

2015 Projected Rushing Rank: #95 (adj.)

The situation at running back for Clemson is very good: #1 rusher Wayne Gallman (769 yards) is back along with three others who had 200+ yards, including QB Deshaun Watson (#4 w/200). The problem lies in the offensive line which loses four starters. Senior center Ryan Norton is back and Isaiah Battle returned but left for the NFL supplemental draft in the summer. With much weaker O-Line play the ground game may have trouble getting traction.

2014 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #4    Pass Defense  per-game: #5   Per-attempt: #4
Defense 2 ret. starters	'14 Scoring Defense: #3 (raw) #5 (adjusted)	'14 sacks: #6	'14 picks: #65
	'15 Projected Scoring Defense: #18 (adjusted)	'15 sacks: #21	'15 picks: #97

Clemson plays a 4-3 and a 4-2-5, but whether they're in a 7-man or 6-man front they'll have no returning starters back there. The defensive line loses all four starters including Grady Jarrett (8.5 tackles for loss) and Vic Beasley (12 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss). Reserve Shaq Lawson (7.5 tackles for loss) will move into the starting lineup and the pass rush should remain strong but not terrifying like it was last year (45 sacks). Another reserve set to join the starting D-Line, DJ Reader, recently left the team for personal reasons though he may come back at some point. At linebacker #1 tackler Stephone Anthony (8 tackles for loss) is gone and with the attrition up front Clemson's top 5 rush defense is almost certainly a thing of the past. Behind that things are only a bit better. Nickelback Korrin Wiggins tore his ACL and is out for the year, though 2013 starter Travis Blanks returns. But two more starters are gone in the secondary including Garry Peters (12 pass breakups). In short, the personnel losses are deep and while great defenses tend to persist regardless, last year's great Tiger defense will probably become merely a good one.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Brady Pinion (42.6 average) is gone, while kicker Ammon Lakip (21 of 28 field goals) is back but is suspended for the first three games of the season due to cocaine possession and DUI.
• Return Game:  Punt fielder Adam Humphries (5.7 average, 1 touchdown) is gone while kickoff returner TJ Green (21.2 ave) is back.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see too much change here. The defense is likely to have fewer interceptions, but Deshaun Watson will probably throw fewer as well (14:2 ratio last year).

Coaching      Hot Seat Ranking: #80 (COOL)
Four straight years of 10 or more wins will secure any coach's job, and beating LSU, Ohio State, and Oklahoma in consecutive bowl games seals the deal for Dabo Swinney.
Recruiting    2015 Recruiting Rank: #8          2014 Recruiting Rank: #26
Swinney's latest recruiting class is probably his best, ranking among the elite SEC programs and #1 in the ACC by our rankings. Three players are consensus 5-star recruits. Offensive lineman Mitch Hyatt from Georgia arrives at the right time to help the team immediately, as does defensive lineman Christian Wilkins from Connecticut. Deon Cain, a receiver from Tampa, may have to wait his turn to start but still should see the field a lot this year.

2014 Recap
Clemson lost to Georgia 45-21 but demolished South Carolina State 73-7 with Cliff Stoudt starting. Deshaun Watson threw 13 passes in those games and had 4 touchdowns. He replaced Stoudt early in the FSU game but it was just a bit too late and they lost in overtime, 23-17. Watson led them to 91 points in wins over the Carolinas but was hurt; the Tigers beat Louisville and Boston College with Stoudt but they scored just 40 points total. The offense continued to dwindle until it hit rock bottom vs. Georgia Tech (a 28-6 loss). Watson returned on a bad ACL to lead in the 35-17 win over South Carolina, but he had surgery before the bowl game. Stoudt ended his career on a high note, leading the Tigers to a 40-6 crushing of the depressed Sooners.

Last year's prediction: We ranked Clemson at #31 last year which ended up being too low. We felt that the offense would take a big hit and we were right: We downgraded the scoring offense from #8 to #56 (it fell to #51), the passing game from #10 to #48 (it fell to #49), and the running game from #32 to #81 (fell to #87). With that astounding accuracy, where did we go wrong? We projected the defense would improve from #28 to #20—instead it improved all the way to #5. In any case, we forecast an 8-4 season, and picked 9 games where Clemson was the favorite (3 underdog). We picked the Georgia loss, and the FSU loss, but had the Tigers losing to South Carolina instead of Georgia Tech.

2015 Outlook

Clemson 2015 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Wofford	99%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	77%	W
9/17	Thu	@	*Louisville	63%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	49%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	53%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	84%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Miami FL	53%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*NC State	56%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	55%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Syracuse	86%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	92%	W
11/28	Sat	@	South Carolina	54%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

Clemson's schedule consists of six games they should win, and six games that are more or less coin flips. In other words, every single game on their schedule is winnable, but they could rack up quite a few losses, too.

The first three games increase in difficulty in steps until the game at Louisville is a bit of a test, then the next game—hosting Notre Dame—ranks as perhaps their toughest test of the year. Hosting Georgia Tech isn't really any easier, and Clemson could be 5-0 or 3-2 at this point.

Boston College should be a win, but then it's right back to the closely-contested games, three in a row in fact starting with Miami on the road, travelling to NC State, and then hosting Florida State. The Tigers might have the edge in each of these but winning all three is going to take some amazing focus.

Syracuse and Wake Forest are the easiest ACC contests on the slate, but they finish at South Carolina for rivalry week. Adding everything up it comes out 8-4. If the Tigers split the close games and win the others that's 9-3 just like last year. But really nothing between 6-6 and 12-0 should be a surprise.

To accomplish the latter, the defense will have to keep it together and Deshaun Watson has to be healthy. If he misses any of the 50/50 games they'll probably lose. An ACC title and even a place in the College Football Playoff are possibilities if everything goes right for the Tigers.

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