We're revisiting our College Football Playoff odds chart mid-week to take into account the Playoff Committee's rankings from Tuesday evening. We projected their rankings and of course got a few things wrong, including where they'd put Florida State and TCU. We actually figured it would be a close race for #3 but didn't believe the Committee would move TCU up to #3. Now that they have, it says a lot.
For one, Baylor is not going to pass TCU unless the Horned Frogs lose. At three positions apart, a win over Kansas State—no matter how dominant—is not going to move the Bears up enough to dislodge TCU. The Big Twelve gave the Committee a way out of its promise to give mucho credit to conference champs—by declaring that the Committee could decide who the conference champ is. They've decided it's TCU.
The move also says that there are not going to be two teams from the same conference in the top four. TCU and Baylor were the only real chance left for it to happen, and by keeping Ohio State ahead of Baylor, and Arizona just one spot back, it means that if FSU and Oregon both lose, Ohio State and Arizona could be the replacements.
It also sends a message to Florida State: lose and you're out. From the #3 position this isn't so certain, but from #4 it doesn't look like FSU can afford a loss. Sure, they'll be 12-1 like everyone else, and Ohio State and Baylor have losses to worse teams than Georgia Tech, but there won't be much questioning of the #4 team falling to #5 after a loss.
Did the Committee do this in case Jameis Winston's hearing goes badly and he's suspended by the school? It's possible. More likely, they are just trying to honor their "strength of schedule" pledge, wherein winning games isn't as important. Also, by noting FSU's weak win margins, they're showing that they're trying to pick the "best" teams, not the "most deserving," the former being another part of their charter...I think. It's hard to keep track of what their actual charter was and what was just thrown around in discussion. But here's one for conspiracy theorists: the Committee could have placed FSU at #4 to prepare them to be excluded if Winston plays vs. Georgia Tech but is suspended later.
The teams at #5 and #6 have quarterback issues, too, but both moved up a spot. Ohio State won't have JT Barrett; the Committee has already decided that losing to Virginia Tech isn't so bad, and some have said they shouldn't be punished for that loss since Barrett was so green. By that logic, if they lose to Wisconsin they should make the Playoff anyway, since they were without their starter. Baylor might not have Bryce Petty either.
In any case, this puts TCU ahead of Florida State in our projections, which now pretty closely align with the Committee's rankings. Our formula doesn't get inside the Committee's heads so the percentages are based on how likely they are to win and how likely it appears they will get into the top four. Already being there is the most important consideration.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart for December 2, 2014 (post-Committee rankings)
11/30 Rank |
12/2 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
12/2 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
CFPc |
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | 90.4 | 0.0 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 80% | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oregon | 86.8 | 0.0 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 76% | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | TCU | 72.1 | +8.0 | 10-1 | 11 | 1 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 99% | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | Florida St | 63.4 | -8.0 | 12-0 | 12 | 1 | 12.5 | 0.5 | 47% | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | Ohio State | 36.4 | 0.0 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 52% | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | Baylor | 21.3 | 0.0 | 10-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 69% | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | Arizona | 8.8 | 0.0 | 10-2 | 10 | 3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 24% | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | Michigan St | 5.5 | +0.8 | 10-2 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | 2.0 | n/a | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | Mississippi St | 3.9 | -1.6 | 10-2 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | 2.0 | n/a | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | Kansas St | 3.7 | +0.8 | 9-2 | 9 | 3 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 31% | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | Georgia Tech | 3.3 | +0.8 | 10-2 | 11 | 2 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 53% | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | Wisconsin | 1.9 | -1.3 | 10-2 | 10 | 3 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 48% | 13 |
| 15 | 13 | Mississippi | 0.8 | +0.6 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 12 |
| 13 | 14 | Missouri | 0.7 | -0.3 | 10-2 | 10 | 3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 20% | 16 |
| 14 | 15 | Marshall | 0.5 | 0.0 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 66% | -- |
| 17 | 16 | Georgia | 0.2 | +0.2 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 14 |
| 16 | 17 | UCLA | 0.2 | 0.0 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 15 |
| 18 | 18 | Arizona St | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 17 |
| 19 | 19 | Clemson | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 18 |
| 22 | 20 | Auburn | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8-4 | 8 | 4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | n/a | 19 |
| 20 | 21 | Oklahoma | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8-3 | 9 | 3 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 94% | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | Louisville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 21 |
| 23 | 23 | Boise St | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10-2 | 11 | 2 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 92% | 22 |
| 24 | 24 | Utah | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8-4 | 8 | 4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | n/a | 23 |
| -- | 25 | LSU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8-4 | 8 | 4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | n/a | 24 |
Dropped out: #25 Minnesota
TCU gets a boost and Florida State falls by the same amount. Since FSU would have just one loss if they fall to Georgia Tech we give them decent odds to stay in the top four, but realistically they'd need at least Ohio State and Baylor to lose. And would they have to worry about 2-loss teams? Who knows. The Committee clearly doesn't like them, and likes TCU, so the Horned Frogs just have to beat Iowa State and they're in. Our 72% projection doesn't capture the fact that TCU is probably the biggest "lock" on the chart, even though they're most likely to end up #3.
With Michigan State ranking ahead of Mississippi State, the Committee is looking more at losses than wins. The Spartans have losses to two probably Playoff teams, Oregon and TCU. Both teams have finished play so they can't move up very much. And Michigan State probably can't finish ahead of Ohio State. So what this does is kill any hope of Mississippi State being the consecrated 2-loss team that slips in if there's total mayhem. If they'd fallen only #7, that would be more realistic.
Kansas State and Georgia Tech both ranked a spot higher than we'd figured, so they both move up a notch in our projection and that gives them hope that an upset win on Saturday might put them in the Playoff. It's a longshot for both, however. They'd probably get close, but no cigar.
Wisconsin and Missouri really had their bubbles burst. The Badgers only climbed to #13, which is not really within striking distance. Missouri figured that surely beating Alabama and winning the SEC would make them a contender, but if the Committee only ranks their current resume at #16 it appears more likely that Alabama would remain in the top four than Missouri join it, even if both are 11-2. In fact, 3-loss Mississippi remained ahead of the Tigers, which shows what the Committee thinks of the SEC West vs. the SEC East. But even Georgia, which was 2nd in the East and lost to Georgia Tech, is 2 spots ahead of Missouri in the Committee's latest judgement. Guess that loss to Indiana actually carries weight, unlike getting shut out 30-0 by 6-6 Arkansas, or blasted 38-20 by 6-5 Florida.
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