Every Playoff configuration, from 64 possible results for Alabama, Oregon, TCU, FSU, Ohio State & Baylor games

The top six teams in the College Football Playoff Committee's rankings have 1 or fewer losses. If the top four teams win, it's pretty simple to project the top four—it will remain exactly the same. A loss or two in the top four isn't hard to decipher either—the other two teams will fill the vacant slots.

But if three or more of the top six lose? It gets a bit more difficult. And if all hell breaks loose? The Committee will have a very difficult job under certain circumstances. It's hard to tell what will happen under some scenarios, but we're giving it a shot: here, we chart all 64 possible combinations of results of the games involving the top 6 teams and project an ordered Top Four for all 64 cases.

Here are the games:

• #1 Alabama vs. #16 Missouri
• #2 Oregon vs. #7 Arizona
• #3 TCU vs. Iowa State
• #4 Florida State vs. #11 Georgia Tech
• #5 Ohio State vs. #13 Wisconsin
• #6 Baylor vs. #9 Kansas State

Here are our assumptions, any of which might be wrong:

1. The Committee loves Alabama, and doesn't like Missouri. Thus even if Alabama loses they remain ahead of the Tigers and have a chance to remain in the Top Four, while Missouri has no chance. This assumption could be wrong since Missouri will be the SEC champs if they win.
2. The Committee likes Oregon and has excused their first loss to Arizona. So even if they lose a second time, they can still sneak in the Playoff behind the Wildcats. This won't happen if Arizona wins in a blowout, and might not happen anyway if the Committee doesn't want to allow the possibility of a National Champ that has won only 1 of 3 games vs. another team. The two teams definitely won't be matched up in the first round.
3. TCU is in if they win due to being #3, and out if they lose, due to playing Iowa State.
4. Florida State passes TCU with a win, and is out with a loss. They might remain #4 with another close win, and perhaps even with a loss—they would have an argument for remaining in as a 1-loss team under a chaotic scenario.
5. Ohio State and Baylor keep their relative ranking—no team passes them, and they pass every team that loses. Seems reasonable but the Committee often shakes up their rankings.
6. Kansas State and Georgia Tech can get in if they win. Kansas State has priority over the Wreck if TCU also loses, in which case the Wildcats stake a claim to a conference championship. Otherwise Georgia Tech is ahead in line after beating Georgia and FSU. Wisconsin, like Missouri, is ranked too low to make the jump into the Top Four. In actuality, it's hard to say what choices the Committee will make regarding these teams in all the trickier scenarios.
7. Michigan State (#8) can't make it because in all of the more chaotic scenarios either K-State or Georgia Tech passes them, and/or Alabama and Oregon remain in front of them. Neither can #10 Mississippi State, for similar reasons. But you never know.

Here, then, is the master matrix of projections for all 64 possible outcomes:

Alabama	Oregon	TCU	FSU	OSU	Baylor	Arizona	K-State	GATech	Playoff Teams in order:
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, TCU
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Baylor
WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, TCU, GA Tech
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, Ohio State
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, Baylor
WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Alabama, Oregon, FSU, K-State
WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Baylor
WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, K-State
WIN	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, Baylor, GA Tech
WIN	WIN	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Oregon, K-State, GA Tech
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Baylor
WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, TCU, Arizona
WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Ohio State, Baylor
WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Ohio State, Arizona
WIN	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Baylor, Arizona
WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, TCU, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, Ohio State, Baylor
WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, Ohio State, Arizona
WIN	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	Alabama, FSU, Baylor, Arizona
WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	Alabama, FSU, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona
WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Ohio State, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Alabama, Baylor, Arizona, Oregon
WIN	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Alabama, Arizona, K-State, Oregon
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Ohio State
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Baylor
L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, TCU, Alabama
L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Ohio State, Baylor
L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Ohio State, Alabama
L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Baylor, Alabama
L	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, TCU, Alabama, GA Tech
L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, Ohio State, Baylor
L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, Ohio State, Alabama
L	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	Oregon, FSU, Baylor, Alabama
L	WIN	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	Oregon, FSU, Alabama, K-State
L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, Ohio State, Baylor, Alabama
L	WIN	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, Ohio State, Alabama, K-State
L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	Oregon, Baylor, Alabama, GA Tech
L	WIN	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	Oregon, Alabama, K-State, GA Tech
L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, TCU, Ohio State, Baylor
L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, TCU, Ohio State, Arizona
L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, TCU, Baylor, Arizona
L	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, TCU, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	TCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona
L	L	WIN	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	TCU, Ohio State, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	TCU, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	WIN	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	TCU, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona
L	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, Ohio State, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	L	L	FSU, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	L	WIN	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	FSU, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama
L	L	L	L	WIN	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Ohio State, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	L	WIN	Baylor, Arizona, Alabama, Oregon
L	L	L	L	L	L	WIN	WIN	WIN	Arizona, Alabama, Oregon, K-State

As you can see, some of the outcomes seem unlikely even given the proposed scenario, but any Top Four looks bizarre under some of the crazier scenarios. About half of the scenarios are straightforward and obvious, while the other half are a bit fuzzy, and about a quarter of them should ideally have several alternative rankings listed, but we've chosen to follow the rules above. Come Sunday when the smoke has cleared, we'll assign odds to the possible foursomes the Committee might select.