View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here
Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas
Time: Thursday, January 1 at 12:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#8 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) vs. #5 Baylor Bears (11-1)
Baylor wanted a chance to test itself against the Playoff teams; Michigan State has already lost to two of them.
Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 3 (over/under 70)
Baylor is a narrow favorite playing near home in Arlington, and the line has bounced around 3 points for weeks. Given the offenses involved, it's natural that a high score is projected by the oddsmakers, but after peaking at 71.5 the over/under has declined to 70 by game day.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3 Spread |
| Michigan State | 41% | 47% |
| Baylor | 59% | 53% |
Both of these teams are in the top ten of the Strength power rating; Baylor is slightly higher at #7 than #10 Michigan State. We also give the Bears partial home field advantage for playing in-state and close to home while East Lansing is over 1,000 miles away. Thus Baylor wins the majority of game comparisons even against a 3 point spread.
Strength power rating: #7 Baylor 41, #10 Michigan State 37
Median power rating: Baylor 42-37 Offense-limited power rating: Baylor 39-36
Adjusted scoring rankings
Michigan State Offense vs. Baylor Defense: #6 vs. #39
Baylor Offense vs. Michigan State Defense: #1 vs. #20
The offenses involved here are so potent that the Strength power rating calls for a whopping 78 points (closer to 79 actually, as each score is rounded down). Michigan State's adjusted scoring offense is #6 while Baylor's is #1 in the nation (these figures use the All-Division Strength power rating, not the FBS-only version). The defenses aren't bad but generally they shouldn't be able to get the best of the offenses in either case. Michigan State's D is down a few notches at #20 this season.
In any case, it's about a 4-point spread for the Bears. 5 points if we use median game ratings for each team, and 3 points if we constrain high scores to balance out offense and defense a bit more. In the latter case it affects Baylor a bit more, but not by much as the Spartans have high-scoring games, too.
Yardage analysis: #2 Baylor 38, #4 Michigan State 31
using yards per point: Baylor 37, Michigan State 31
Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Michigan State total Offense vs. Baylor total Defense: #16 vs. #30
Baylor total Offense vs. Michigan State total Defense: #1 vs. #8
Baylor and Michigan State rank even higher—#2 and #4—in yardage differential, the difference between yards gained on offense and yards yielded on defense, adjusted for opposition of course. Here Baylor again has the #1 most productive offense and a reasonably good defense. Michigan State's offense is in the top 25, and their defense is in the top ten. From this we expect Baylor to gain nearly 500 yards while Michigan State has almost 450; this translates to a 7-point margin and a score total that, while it's still high, isn't outrageously so.
Converting the yardage to a score based on each team's yards-per-point tendencies doesn't change the estimate very much at all; both teams score points on very little yardage, relatively, while their defenses demand more yards per point of their opponent.
Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Baylor 37, Michigan State 32
Michigan State's special teams help them while Baylor's hurt them a bit, on average. It's around a 1.25 point swing toward the Spartans and the yardage estimate margin ends up at around 5 point.
When Michigan State has the ball
| Michigan State rushing offense: #16 |
Baylor rushing defense: #19 |
Jeremy Langford (1,360 yards, 19 TDs) is the Spartans' main running back, and Nick Hill (596, 9 TDs) is a good changeup back. The Spartans run the ball well and the Bears defend the run well; Michigan State should have almost, but not quite, 200 yards.
| Michigan State passing offense: #49 | Baylor passing defense: #68 per att: #67 |
Connor Cook is having almost a carbon copy of his 2013 season, with 2,900 yards to last year's 2,755. His completion rate (58%), touchdowns (22), and interceptions (6) are the same as last year's stats. The difference is that he's achieved those stats in 57 fewer attempts, and he still has a game to go. His yards/attempt are up from 7.25 to 9.0. Tony Lippett is his go-to receiver with 1,124 yards and 11 TDs. Baylor's pass defense is its vulnerability and the Spartans could have nearly 250 yards for the afternoon.
Baylor is only average at intercepting the ball but they have a top 25 pass rush in raw numbers (36 on the year; Shawn Oakman leads with 10). But the Spartans protect the passer well and have allowed only 10 sacks this season.
When Baylor has the ball
| Baylor rushing offense: #23 |
Michigan State rushing defense: #2 |
Baylor has their own 1-2 punch at running back: Shock Linwood leads with 1,226 yards (16 TDs) while Johnny Jefferson adds 526 and 6. Michigan State's rushing defense is, as usual, one of the best in the country; we rank it #2, up from a raw-figures #7 after adjusting for the offenses they've faced. Baylor probably won't reach 150 yards against it.
| Baylor passing offense: #4 | Michigan State passing defense: #40 per att: #12 |
Another year, another uber-productive Baylor quarterback. Bryce Petty's numbers (3,305 yards, 26 TDs, 6 int) might not be quite up to last year's figures but if you add in backup Seth Russell's 804 yards, 8 TDs and 1 pick, it's pretty close. This year Corey Coleman is the top pass-catcher with 969 yards and 10 TDs, while KD Cannon (833), Antwan Goodley (737), and Jay Lee (596) all contribute heavily. Michigan State's pass defense has been their weakness, and Baylor should have around 350 passing yards.
With their rush defense so strong, what are you going to do except throw the ball on the Spartans? So Michigan State up a lot of yards, but on a per-attempt basis they're pretty good. They also get a lot of interceptions—17 so far this year—and have 37 sacks. The Spartan sack brigade is led by the aptly-named Marcus Rush (7 sacks), with Shilique Calhoun (6.5) and Ed Davis (6.0) heavily involved. Baylor has yielded 19 sacks, not bad for almost 500 attempts, but there will be ample opportunity for the Spartan D to try to make big plays.
Michigan State's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- Jacksonville St 45-7
- @#2 Oregon 27-46
- E Michigan 73-14
- Wyoming 56-14
- Nebraska 27-22
- @Purdue 45-31
- @Indiana 56-17
- Michigan 35-11
- #4 Ohio State 37-49
- @Maryland 37-15
- Rutgers 45-3
- @Penn State 34-10
For as much hype as Michigan State's season got, they only had one win over a bowl team after 9 games—most of their 'street cred' came from losing only to Oregon, and later, only to Oregon and Ohio State.
It's true, when your only losses come to Playoff teams, you might be really good, but by that logic Marshall should have been in the top ten; the Spartans were dominant in their cupcake games, but so were the Thundering Herd. MSU was beating Nebraska 27-3 but the Cornhuskers came back and almost had a shot near the end. At 7-1 it was assumed they'd beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten, but the Buckeyes had other ideas. The Spartans' last three wins were all vs. bowl teams, i.e. bowl team wins #2, 3, and 4. Though they dropped from #7 to #8, and therefore out of the Orange Bowl on a week where they didn't play (nor did the team that passed them), they made the Cotton Bowl which is pretty snazzy, and more importantly they played very well after the Ohio State loss, a good sign going forward.
Baylor's season (11-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- SMU 45-0
- Northwestern St 70-6
- @Buffalo 63-21
- @Iowa St 49-28
- @Texas 28-7
- #6 TCU 61-58
- @West Virginia 27-41
- Kansas 60-14
- @Oklahoma 48-14
- Oklahoma St 49-28
- =Texas Tech 48-46
- #11 Kansas St 38-27
Baylor did it's typical tiptoe through the cupcakes in the early season, scoring 45 or more points until Texas, who finished with the #1 pass defense, held them to 28. The next game was one for the ages, as TCU and Baylor combined fror 119 points and the Bears overcame a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to win.
They lost the very next game to West Virginia, however, and that—and their weak non-conference schedule—would hold them out of the Playoff. For a long time it looked like they'd remain ranked below TCU, but their final wins included three bowl teams including #11 Kansas State, as well as a 48-14 blowout of Oklahoma that probably replaced Auburn's 41-7 win over LSU as the most impressive of the year (and held it until Ohio State-Wisconsin). They beat Kansas much more easily than TCU did, but had much more trouble with Texas Tech when Bryce Petty was knocked out of the game and their big lead almost vanished. The K-State win was enough to put them ahead of TCU but not enough to make the top four, but once there were no upsets it was pretty clear they wouldn't make it. They were more angry with their own conference for promoting TCU as a co-champion than they ultimately were with the Committee.
Key Injuries
Baylor might be missing #3 running back Devin Chafin. For Michigan State, senior offensive lineman Travis Jackson might still be out; he missed the season finale as well. Update: Jackson is now listed as probable.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Michigan State's season: -1 win; Baylor's season: +1 win
- Michigan State's momentum: +0 wins; Baylor's momentum: -1 win
- Michigan State won final game: YES; Baylor won final game: YES
- Michigan State glad to be there? yes; Baylor glad to be there: yes
- Michigan State time zones from home: 1; Baylor time zones from home: 0;
- Michigan State coaching situation: stable; Baylor coaching situation: stable
Both teams had great seasons last year, and both had great 2014 campaigns. Though Baylor added a win and MSU dipped by 1, these programs are not so used to going 11-1 or 10-2 that they are disappointed with one over the other. They both ended the season playing very well. They're both glad to be playing in a great bowl game, while at the same time holding a bit of disappointment about what could have been. There's more of that for Baylor, who should have been able to beat West Virginia; you can't fault Michigan State for losing to two Playoff teams—they got their shot at them.
Final analysis
Compared to Baylor, Michigan State is a serene lake in terms of its volatility, or lack thereof. The Spartans always play well, and at roughly the same high level. Baylor is all over the place, mostly due to their defense: some weeks it can't cope with the breakneck pace the offense sets and the opponent tires it out. When both units are "on" you get things like the Oklahoma game. When the defense is off you might have the Texas Tech near-loss, the TCU game, or the West Virginia game. Baylor's best games are better than Michigan State's, but its poorest games are worse.
So Baylor largely determines the course of the game. Michigan State is going to do their thing. They won't ever play a bad game, but if Baylor is firing on all cylinders even the Spartans can't stop them. Under normal circumstances Michigan State's defense is a good match for Baylor: they can slow down the run game considerably; their per-attempt pass defense is sound; they can make big plays with interceptions and sacks. They've given up 300+ passing yards only twice: to Oregon and Ohio State. We're projecting 350 yards from Baylor.
But Oregon and Ohio State also had 173 and 268 rushing yards respectively, and Baylor probably won't come close to that. The Spartans just need a few big plays on defense and they can win the game. The way they've been playing recently is a really good sign. After the Oregon loss they didn't miss a beat, as they still had hope for a Big Ten title. That pretty much died with the Ohio State loss, but they didn't wilt like some other teams whose title hopes died—they played even better in thrashing three bowl teams in a row.
That's probably due to coaching. Mark Dantonio seems to be able to get the best out of his players, and this is an example of a team that didn't give up, and plays good, consistent football week in and week out. That consistency means they shouldn't let the game get out of hand, and with their defense able to stop the run better than they could against Oregon or Ohio State, they can focus more on stopping the pass. Meanwhile, their own potent offense has a chance to do damage, tire out Baylor's defense, and score points. The Spartans failed twice before to beat a top five team but maybe three's a charm.
Prediction: Michigan State 38, Baylor 35
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.
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