View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here
GoDaddy Bowl in Mobile, Alabama
Time: Sunday, January 4 at 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5)
A rare Sunday college football game, and the last regular bowl of the season.
Vegas line/spread: Toledo by 3 1/2 (over/under 70)
The Rockets were a 3 point favorite several weeks before the game, and by game day that was largely unchanged. The over/under moved from 67 to 70.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -3 Spread |
| Toledo | 45% | 39% |
| Arkansas State | 55% | 61% |
Here's a very rare case (2nd one in the bowl season, I believe) where the Strength power rating disagrees with the oddsmakers. Arkansas State is #70 in Strength while Toledo is just #83; most of the game comparisons go to the Red Wolves, and of course that amount increases when a 3-point spread is considered.
Strength power rating: #70 Arkansas State 36, #83 Toledo 34
Median power rating: Arkansas State 38-31 Offense-limited power rating: Toledo 35-34
Adjusted scoring rankings
Toledo Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense: #63 vs. #108
Arkansas State Offense vs. Toledo Defense: #51 vs. #116
Arkansas State is a 2 point favorite according to the Strength power rating. Using median game scores, that expands to a 7-point lead, but interestingly the offense-limited power rating, which cuts off game scores to create an even balance between offense and defense, favors the Rockets by about 1/2 of a point. We'll look at the charts and game scores below to explain all that.
Both of these teams have terrible defenses and moderately good offense. Arkansas State ranks slightly better in both, hence they are the favorite.
Yardage analysis: #61 Arkansas State 38, #71 Toledo 35
using yards per point: Arkansas State 36, Toledo 33
Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Toledo total Offense vs. Arkansas State total Defense: #44 vs. #98
Arkansas State total Offense vs. Toledo total Defense: #32 vs. #94
The Red Wolves are still ahead of the Rockets when it comes to yardage, #61 to #71, so the spread is about the same—three points in this case. And the breakdowns tell the same story: decent offenses, bad defenses. We expect both teams to top 450 yards, with Arkansas State approaching 500 yards of total offense.
Using yards-per-point tendencies of both teams we end up with a very similar estimate, just a bit lower-scoring is all.
Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Arkansas State 36, Toledo 34
Neither team has very good special effects according to ESPN's FPI; they rank #85 and #97. It does give the Rockets about 1/2 point and pares the margin down to 2 points, so...back where the Strength power rating had it after all.
When Toledo has the ball
| Toledo rushing offense: #25 |
Arkansas State rushing defense: #115 |
The Rockets are a running team and they have a good one-two punch in Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson, who together have over 2,000 yards. Hunt has 1,360 of those and 11 TDs, and what's more impressive is that he did that in nine games. Arkansas State's rushing defense is a sieve, and we expect Hunt and company to rack up around 275 yards.
| Toledo passing offense: #88 | Arkansas State passing defense: #55 per att: #93 |
Logan Woodside (2,096 yards) isn't going to make people forget Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin from recent years, but he is careful with the ball and has a 19:7 ratio. Corey Jones and Alonzo Russell are the top receivers with over 1,500 yards between them. Arkansas State's D is better here and should hold them under 200 yards most likely.
Further, the Red Wolves have some opportunity for big plays—they have 15 picks and 35 sacks on the year. Toledo responds by not throwing many interceptions, and giving up only 16 sacks all year.
When Arkansas State has the ball
| Arkansas State rushing offense: #35 |
Toledo rushing defense: #51 |
Michael Gordon is the Wolves' main ball carrier and he has 1,064 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. QB Fredi Knighten isn't bad either, with 775 yards and 11 scores. Toledo's rush defense is pretty average after correction for schedule (it's #19 in raw figures) and they'll probably yield around 185 yards on the ground.
| Arkansas State passing offense: #44 | Toledo passing defense: #121 per att: #107 |
Fredi Knighten is a pretty good passer for a running quarterback. Knighten has 2,874 yards and 19 touchdowns vs. 7 interceptions. Targets Dijon Pascal, Tres Houston, and JD McKissic all have over 500 receiving yards. Toledo's pass defense is atrocious and we expect Knighten to throw for over 300 yards.
Toledo doesn't get many interceptions, and their pass rush isn't particularly strong. But the Red Wolves have allowed 29 sacks this year so they'll give it a shot—they need to try something since their coverage doesn't work well.
Toledo's season (8-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)
- New Hampshire 54-20
- #16 Missouri 24-49
- @Cincinnati 34-58
- Ball St 34-23
- Central Mich 42-28
- @Western Mich 20-19 ot
- @Iowa St 30-37
- Massachusetts 42-35
- @Kent St 30-20
- @Northern Ill 24-27
- Bowling Green 27-20
- @Eastern Mich 52-16
Toledo's season opening 54-20 win over New Hampshire was actually an incredibly impressive accomplishment that no one heralded at the time. The Wildcats sit at #99 in the All-Division Strength power rating behind UTEP and ahead of Central Michigan after finishing 12-1 this season. They're still alive in the FCS Playoff. In other words, so far Toledo is the only team to beat them, and they won by 34 points. This game is the reason that Toledo's median score is so much lower than its mean—it increases the mean by a fair amount.
The rest of Toledo's year was pretty unimpressive. Losses to Missouri and Cincy rated really low; the next three wins (Ball State and E/W Michigans) constituted their best run; the loss to Iowa State was about the same as beating UMass or Kent State; they played NIU close, beat Bowling Green, and crushed Eastern Michigan, and through it all had the same subdued game ratings. Except for that first game standing out like a beacon.
Arkansas State's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- Montana St 37-10
- @Tennessee 19-34
- @Miami FL 20-41
- Utah St 21-14 ot
- UL-Monroe 28-14
- @Georgia St 52-10
- @UL-Lafayette 40-55
- @Idaho 44-28
- South Alabama 45-10
- Appalachian St 32-37
- @Texas St 27-45
- New Mexico St 68-35
Arkansas State had a good first six games, then things went a bit rocky. At 4-2, they had beaten Montana State 37-10, Utah State in overtime, and ULM and Georgia State handily. Their losses were to Tennessee and Miami. Nothing wrong with that.
Then they lost to ULL 55-40, the first of three bad losses. The others were to Appalachian State and Texas State, and came back to back. The defense died in all three games and the offense did poorly considering who they were playing. The late wins, especially beating South Alabama 45-10, were pretty good. And they closed with a 68-point crushing of New Mexico State. They don't get full credit for that win under the Offense-Limiting power rating, so it docks their rating a bit in the comparisons in the section at the top. At the same time the offense excelled, the defense gave up 35 to a very poor offense.
So while it appears the offense keep reaching new heights, the defense is tunneling down to new lows.
Key Injuries
Arkansas State is getting D-back Charleston Girley back for the bowl game; he hasn't played since the first month of the season. Toledo starting D-back Jordan Haden has missed the last few games and won't be back for the bowl.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Toledo's season: +1 win; Arkansas State's season: +0 wins
- Toledo's momentum: +0 wins; Arkansas State's momentum: -1 win
- Toledo won final game: yes; Arkansas State won final game: yes
- Toledo glad to be here? sure; Arkansas State glad to be here: why not
- Toledo time zones from home: 1; Arkansas State time zones from home: 0;
- Toledo coaching situation: no change; Arkansas State coaching situation: no change
Neither team changed their record much, or had much momentum shift during the season. They both won their final game in solid fashion, and both should be okay with the bowl game—especially Arkansas State, as they saw several Sun Belt comrades go without despite qualifying.
You could argue Arkansas State is playing closer to home in the south, but it's not that close and Toledo isn't the entire country away. Perhaps the most shocking thing in this whole review is that there is "no change" in the status of Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson. If he makes it to the bowl game still coaching the Red Wolves he's bucking recent historical precedent.
Final analysis
Instances where the Vegas oddsmakers and the Strength power rating disagree are few and far between come bowl season. Usually they're within a few points, so if one team is favored by a field goal, it might be a 1 point favorite or a 5-point favorite in Strength. If that's not the case, there's usually something going on, like a major player getting suspended. In this case the difference isn't that great—5 points—so it's probably just an outlier rather than the case where Vegas "knows" something (they know everything anyway).
Another interesting thing is Toledo's big first win skewing their rating. If anything, that makes me wonder more about why Toledo is favored. They haven't approached that game's quality since, and it was against an FCS team and therefore probably less reliable as a comparison, especially when it's so out of line with everything else the team did. If that game is removed from Toledo's calculation, it makes Arkansas State around a 4 1/2 point favorite by Strength.
We could also adjust Arkansas State based on their split season. The first half was consistent and higher quality than the fragmented last 6 games. Using the last six, we'd dock almost 4 points from the total...and we'd favor Toledo by 2, by the original estimate...or Arkansas State would be a 1/2 point favorite when we exclude Toledo's outlier game.
We can play a lot of games with the numbers but the matchups on offense and defense say that Toledo is going to run the ball down Arkansas State's throats with lots of success, and the Red Wolves are going to pass all over the Rockets. The last team to score is going to win, we say. We could add even more points since it seems Arkansas State is scoring more and defending even less, but we'll keep the score that matched between points and yardage a predict a Red Wolves win in a shootout.
Prediction: Arkansas State 36, Toledo 34
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.
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