Arkansas beat Mississippi 30-0 last week, a result that is even more shocking than their 17-0 win over LSU last week. Before that, the Razorbacks were 4-5 and most would have considered them to be lucky to become bowl-eligible.
But there were signs that Arkansas was getting better. They lost to then-#1 Mississippi State just 17-10, and stayed with current #1 Alabama all the way, losing 14-13. Some wrote those games off as highly-favored teams getting lazy, but there were even earlier signs that Arkansas was a strong team: the much-maligned computer power rating (we have to say "computer" power rating because for some reason the term has been co-opted by anyone who wants to make a ranking of any kind).
Arkansas lost their first game of the season 45-21 to Auburn, a result that was fairly consistent with how good the two teams were last year—Auburn finishing #2 in the nation, and Arkansas ending up just 3-9. The Razorbacks beat Nicholls State 73-7, a result only slightly more impressive than losing to Auburn by 24, but something a 3-9 team couldn't do. Next they beat Texas Tech 49-28; the Red Raiders aren't great, but beating them by three touchdowns is something last year's team couldn't do. Finally, they beat a decent Northern Illinois team 52-14. They were 3-1 on September 20th, and our Strength power rating put them among the top 25 in the nation, in some pretty good company:
# Team rec rating offense defense
20. Florida St 3-0 61.44 51.54 [ 77] -9.89 [ 4]
21. West Virginia 2-2 60.56 64.88 [ 14] 4.31 [ 62]
22. Arkansas 3-1 60.34 62.22 [ 19] 1.88 [ 46]
23. Louisville 3-1 59.60 51.58 [ 76] -8.02 [ 10]
24. Southern Cal 2-1 58.88 58.39 [ 33] -0.49 [ 35]
This was an early power rating (after just four weeks) so it might have been a fluke. Having FSU just at #20 might have given one pause, too, but that turns out to be believable. In any case, when Arkansas took highly-regarded Texas A&M (then #6 in the country) into overtime before losing 35-28, it was really just proof that the Razorbacks were a good team. Following the 14-13 loss to Alabama, Arkansas ranked 14th—in other words, 2 losses moved them up 8 spots:
12. Ohio State 4-1 67.52 67.51 [ 7] -0.01 [ 47]
13. LSU 5-2 67.34 60.17 [ 25] -7.16 [ 11]
14. Arkansas 3-3 67.07 63.78 [ 14] -3.29 [ 26]
15. Oregon 5-1 66.88 64.40 [ 12] -2.48 [ 33]
16. Michigan St 5-1 65.93 67.28 [ 8] 1.35 [ 54]
This was 7 weeks into the season and there was little chance of their quality being a fluke. They proved their mettle again against Georgia—another "good" loss at 45-32—and beating UAB 45-17. A week before facing #1 Mississippi State, Arkansas was #17:
15. Clemson 6-2 66.47 57.40 [ 37] -9.06 [ 6]
16. Wisconsin 5-2 65.76 60.61 [ 26] -5.14 [ 19]
17. Arkansas 4-4 65.47 61.79 [ 21] -3.67 [ 21]
18. Notre Dame 6-1 64.71 58.78 [ 32] -5.92 [ 14]
19. Texas A&M 5-3 64.30 63.70 [ 12] -0.59 [ 44]
Following the 17-10 loss to Mississippi State and 17-0 crushing of LSU, the Razorbacks were #15, having stayed pretty steady for a few months:
13. LSU 7-4 69.60 57.12 [ 34] -12.48 [ 3]
14. Kansas St 7-2 67.64 60.60 [ 25] -7.03 [ 10]
15. Arkansas 5-5 66.60 58.87 [ 30] -7.72 [ 6]
16. Tennessee 5-5 65.22 58.87 [ 31] -6.35 [ 13]
17. UCLA 8-2 63.75 61.88 [ 19] -1.86 [ 32]
Arkansas completed their 30-0 shutout of Mississippi and rose to #12. Their offense ranks #25 and defense #5 after giving up just 10 total points to three ranked teams.
10. Oklahoma 8-3 68.96 64.64 [ 8] -4.31 [ 17]
11. Ohio State 10-1 68.29 67.23 [ 5] -1.05 [ 37]
12. Arkansas 6-5 67.75 59.11 [ 25] -8.64 [ 5]
13. LSU 7-4 67.56 56.22 [ 34] -11.33 [ 4]
14. Wisconsin 9-2 67.46 61.61 [ 15] -5.84 [ 11]
The Ole Miss win was clearly their best game of the year, and their chart below shows their performances getting better throughout the season.
So while Arkansas is getting better, the fact that they're playing well is no surprise to anyone paying attention to their close losses to quality teams, and even their early wins against mediocre competition. Power ratings were reflecting it all along, and not just ours, of course: the Razorbacks are #16 in the FPI (#8 in efficiency) on ESPN, and Sagarin has them #17 (#13 in Predictor). In our Overall power rating they're #15 after rising to #25 in Success despite being just 6-5—they have wins over LSU and Ole Miss now, and their losses are all to winning teams who were ranked in the top 10 at the time.
A few weeks ago we were going to write a post pitying Arkansas' bowl opponent, but that's no longer necessary—everyone is on alert that, come bowl season, whomever the Razorbacks are matched up against will have their hands full.
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