Not many upsets happened over the long weekend, and the one that did was pretty much predicted by our Strength power rating. That means that the top four teams remain unchanged from last weekend, but the order switches a bit.
Alabama takes over the #1 spot for two reasons: one, they beat Auburn, and two, Missouri made it to the SEC championship. The benefits of the former are obvious, but the latter means that the Tide won't have to face Georgia in Atlanta, which was around a 50/50 proposition. Missouri is an 80% likely win for Alabama, but then again Mizzou has been bucking the odds for several weeks now.
Oregon wiped out Oregon State and improved their odds to 86% even as they drop to #2. Since that's their rank in the Committee's standings, they were destined to drop their regardless if Alabama won out. They'll rematch Arizona next week and could be the only team that has avenged its losses for the year. With Alabama playing an easier foe, there's a small chance Oregon claims the #1 seed with a win, but it's unlikely.
Florida State had its predictable challenge to overcome, and once again they did it, edging Florida 24-19. They'll play Georgia Tech in the ACC title game and our power ratings predict an upset, but it's basically 50/50 and FSU could still squeeze in with a loss if other things go their way. In fact, all of the top three still has a chance if they lose, but those scenarios are complicated and no one knows how the Committee would handle chaos.
TCU remained number 4 as the expected loss by Mississippi State cleared a path for the Horned Frogs with the Committee. They're the only team that isn't secure, however; they play Iowa State, which won't improve their standing, while the teams below them play ranked opponents. But with a (projected) solid #4 ranking and an almost certain victory next week, they move above 50% in Playoff Odds so we finally have a strong prediction for the field of four.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds charts for November 30, 2014 (through week 14)
Last week |
11/30 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
11/30 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
CFPc |
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 3 | 1 | Alabama | 90.4 | +18.5 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 80% | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | Oregon | 86.8 | +8.3 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 76% | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | Florida St | 71.4 | -5.4 | 12-0 | 12 | 1 | 12.5 | 0.5 | 47% | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | TCU | 64.1 | +20.2 | 10-1 | 11 | 1 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 99% | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | Ohio State | 36.4 | +9.8 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 52% | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | Baylor | 21.3 | -6.4 | 10-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 69% | 6 |
| 14 | 7 | Arizona | 8.8 | +7.4 | 10-2 | 10 | 3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 24% | 7 |
| 5 | 8 | Mississippi St | 5.5 | -35.0 | 10-2 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | 2.0 | n/a | 8.5 |
| 8 | 9 | Michigan St | 4.7 | -2.7 | 10-2 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | 2.0 | n/a | 8.5 |
| 12 | 10 | Wisconsin | 3.2 | +0.2 | 10-2 | 10 | 3 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 48% | 11 |
| 13 | 11 | Kansas St | 2.9 | +0.1 | 9-2 | 9 | 3 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 31% | 10 |
| 18 | 12 | Georgia Tech | 2.5 | +2.0 | 10-2 | 11 | 2 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 53% | 12 |
| 17 | 13 | Missouri | 1.0 | +0.4 | 10-2 | 10 | 3 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 20% | 13 |
| 10 | 14 | Marshall | 0.5 | -5.0 | 11-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 66% | -- |
| 22 | 15 | Mississippi | 0.2 | +0.2 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 14 |
| 11 | 16 | UCLA | 0.2 | -4.4 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 15 |
| 9 | 17 | Georgia | 0.0 | -5.9 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 16 |
| 15 | 18 | Arizona St | 0.0 | -1.1 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 17.5 |
| 24 | 19 | Clemson | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 17.5 |
| 23 | 20 | Oklahoma | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8-3 | 9 | 3 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 94% | 19 |
| 21 | 21 | Louisville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9-3 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | n/a | 20 |
| 19 | 22 | Auburn | 0.0 | -0.2 | 8-4 | 8 | 4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | n/a | 21 |
| -- | 23 | Boise St | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10-2 | 11 | 2 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 92% | 22 |
| 25 | 24 | Utah | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8-4 | 8 | 4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | n/a | 23.5 |
| 20 | 25 | Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8-4 | 8 | 4 | 8.0 | 4.0 | n/a | 23.5 |
Dropped out: Colorado State
Other major contenders: Ohio State and Baylor
Ohio State beat Michigan and as of last week was ahead of Baylor in the Committee standings. Baylor struggled against Texas Tech which doesn't help their cause and makes beating Kansas State look more doubtful. Their games next week—vs. Wisconsin and vs. Kansas State, respectively—are about equal in terms of weight, but Baylor is more likely to win their game. It's clear that Baylor's schedule has been a drag on their ranking, and that winning the Big Twelve by having the best record isn't going to be treated the same as winning a conference championship game. Nor does it appear that Baylor is catching up to TCU, despite beating the Horned Frogs earlier. Their only hope is to edge closer to TCU on Tuesday, and their near-loss to the Red Raiders makes that less likely. So for now, TCU's main competition for the 4th spot is Ohio State, not Baylor. That could change Tuesday as the Committee has been unpredictable before.
Also: What is not reflected here is the probable loss of JT Barrett for next week's game against the Badgers.
Other minor contenders
#7 Arizona is probably the best-positioned 2-loss team, in that if they beat Oregon there will be no argument against putting them above the Ducks—they will have defeated them twice on the year. Getting past the 1-loss teams would be the chore, so they'd need help.
Though Mississippi State and Michigan State rate the next highest percentage chance to sneak in as a 2-loss team, neither will be a conference champ so their odds of moving up are slim. They won't lose, though, and the teams below them probably will, so they are more likely to hold a higher rank. If all hell breaks loose and only Alabama is left standing next week, the Bulldogs' close loss would be their argument, along with SEC West dominance. It probably wouldn't hold water against the other conference champs' arguments. Michigan State, too, could argue it lost only to two Playoff teams—Oregon and Ohio State, potentially—but is that a good argument? That they already lost to Playoff teams?
If Wisconsin beats Ohio State they'll be a conference champ but they lost to Northwestern. They, too, would need a lot of 1-loss teams to lose, and even then it's questionable. They rate fairly high because their odds of upsetting Ohio State are pretty good.
Kansas State could help themselves with an upset of Baylor, but it doesn't look like there's any way for the Wildcats to be an official conference champion. A three-way tie between K-State, TCU, and Baylor would be broken by games vs. West Virginia—eliminating Baylor—and then TCU would win the conference on head-to-head vs. K-State.
Georgia Tech sails up to #12 after upsetting Georgia, but Missouri might have foiled their plans. The Yellow Jackets have better odds of beating FSU than Missouri does of Alabama which is why they're ahead, but winning the SEC would give a bigger boost than winning the ACC. If Missouri had lost to Arkansas, Georgia would have been in the SEC final, and if they'd won, Georgia Tech could claim both an ACC title and a win over the SEC champ.
The 'coulda been' contenders...
Marshall lost a wild game to Western Kentucky, 67-66, which accelerated the already downward plunge of their odds. The Committee wasn't going to care if they were 13-0 and certainly won't care if they are 12-1, but our formula still shows a token amount. Their concern now is a New Year's Day bowl which they could still get if they beat Louisiana Tech and Boise State loses to Fresno State.
Mississippi has some great wins—Alabama, Mississippi State—but their three losses won't let them near the prize. Same for UCLA, who controlled their destiny but couldn't control Stanford, losing 31-10 to finish 9-3.
Georgia was in the best position of any 2-loss team last week but lost in overtime to Georgia Tech. As it turns out that didn't matter, since they weren't going to win the SEC East in any case. But the loss really hurts their bowl standing.
Arizona State would have won the Pac-12 South had they managed to get past Arizona. Instead they fall somewhere into the Pac-12 bowl pecking order.
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