There wasn't much change at the top of this week's College Football Playoff odds chart, except for the obvious replacement of Mississippi State with Alabama at the #3 spot.The bigger moves were all outside the top 8.
Florida State remained #1 and increased their odds to their highest total yet, even higher than the 83.5% chance we gave them in the pre-season when they were forecast to be nearly unbeatable. Their odds of winning out still don't match what we gave them back then, amazingly. But with 10 wins under their belt and the Committee rankings becoming more important to our forecast, the Seminoles are in good shape. We don't know whether the Committee will put them #1 or #2 come Tuesday so we hedge, but we think in the end a 13-0 FSU would probably take the top seed. The question is whether a 1-loss FSU would get in, and that's debatable, but as the number of 1-loss teams dwindles that becomes more likely, too.
Oregon remains #2 in an idle week but increases their odds to 77%. That's mostly from the Committee's unexpected decision to jump them to #2 last Tuesday, which means they could be #1 on the 18th. Like FSU, we can safely say that if they win out, they're in. Oregon State's upset of Arizona State dinged them in three ways: 1) they won't have a 1-loss ASU to beat in the Pac-12 title game, 2) Oregon State looks a bit tougher to beat, and 3) UCLA probably wins the Pac-12 and will be tougher than ASU would have been. This adds up to very little concern, however, reducing their odds to win out from 66.1% to 65.6%.
Alabama controls their Playoff destiny, too. The Committee only had them #5 last weeks so we figure they'll be #3 on Tuesday, but with the Committee you never know. In any case they appear headed for the Playoff, but Georgia is going to be a tough obstacle assuming the Bulldogs win the East; if Missouri gets in, Alabama's life gets much easier. They still have to beat Auburn, too, of course.
TCU might only be #5 in the Committee's list this week, based on where Mississippi State landed in the AP and Coaches' polls. The Horned Frogs had trouble with Kansas (which we predicted, *pats own back*) but survived, and Minnesota's loss diminished one of their better wins. On the other hand, they beat the Gophers 30-7 while Ohio State won 31-24. We still see TCU as the most likely 4th team based mainly on their easy path ahead, though if Mississippi State wins out it they might be bumped, and there's always the loss to Baylor looming if both are 11-1. Fittingly, TCU is still under 50% likelihood.
College Football Playoff odds chart, post-week 12 (11/16/2014)
Last week |
11/16 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
11/16 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
CFPc |
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 1 | 1 | Florida St | 86.7 | +16.5 | 10-0 | 13 | 0 | 11.9 | 1.1 | 24.3% | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2 | Oregon | 76.8 | +14.0 | 9-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.6 | 1.4 | 65.6% | 1.5 |
| 5 | 3 | Alabama | 55.0 | +10.9 | 9-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 31.7% | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | TCU | 46.1 | -0.8 | 9-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 79.4% | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | Mississippi St | 35.2 | -17.5 | 9-1 | 10 | 2 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 8.3% | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | Baylor | 34.6 | +1.3 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 74.9% | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | Ohio State | 22.8 | -3.2 | 9-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 37.1% | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | Marshall | 11.6 | -1.4 | 10-0 | 13 | 0 | 12.5 | 0.5 | 55.5% | 21 |
| 17 | 9 | Georgia | 5.5 | +4.1 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 47.0% | 10.5 |
| 12 | 10 | Michigan St | 4.8 | -0.2 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 39.4% | 10.5 |
| 13 | 11 | Mississippi | 4.3 | +1.2 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | Duke | 3.5 | -9.5 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 38.6% | 25.5 |
| 21 | 13 | UCLA | 3.1 | +2.2 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 11.9% | 9 |
| 19 | 14 | Wisconsin | 3.1 | +1.9 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 33.1% | 15 |
| 14 | 15 | Colorado St | 1.8 | -0.8 | 9-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 40.2% | 24 |
| 18 | 16 | Kansas St | 1.5 | +0.2 | 7-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 11.5% | 12 |
| 11 | 17 | Nebraska | 1.4 | -4.2 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 15.3% | 23 |
| 10 | 18 | Arizona St | 0.8 | -10.5 | 8-2 | 9 | 3 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 6.8% | 14 |
| 22 | 19 | Arizona | 0.6 | +0.3 | 8-2 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 4.6% | 13 |
| 23 | 20 | Georgia Tech | 0.6 | +0.4 | 9-2 | 9 | 3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 6.4% | 16 |
| 24 | 21 | Missouri | 0.2 | +0.2 | 8-2 | 8 | 4 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.8% | 19 |
| 15 | 22 | Auburn | 0.0 | -2.4 | 7-3 | 8 | 4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 31.0% | 17 |
| -- | 23 | Utah | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7-3 | 9 | 3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 10.0% | 18 |
| -- | 24 | Southern Cal | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7-3 | 8 | 4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 7.6% | 20 |
| -- | 25 | Oklahoma | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7-3 | 9 | 3 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 93.1% | 22 |
Dropped out: #16 Clemson, #20 Notre Dame, #25 Minnesota
Mississippi State won't fall far from the #1 spot in the Committee's rankings, probably landing at #4 ahead of TCU; they have a loss to 1-loss Alabama while TCU has a loss to 1-loss Baylor, and both were very close. And then they have all those wins, which TCU lacks, right? Well, they did, but now those wins don't look so great. At the time they beat LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn, all were undefeated and in the top 10. Now they are 7-4, 7-4, and 7-3, and only Auburn is still in the top 25. TCU has two top 25 wins (Kansas State and Oklahoma). This will be an interesting placement. The Bulldogs' still have to face Ole Miss on the road, but if they win that and Alabama goes to the SEC title game, they'll be 11-1, same as TCU—and neither will have a conference championship. Who gets in then?
Maybe it's Baylor, since an 11-1 Baylor would be the Big Twelve champion. They'd have three top 25 wins by that point, better than both TCU and Mississippi State. The Bears increase their odds very slightly in the off week, mostly due to Arizona State losing which gets rid of another team that essentially controlled their destiny in staying ahead of Baylor.
Ohio State remains at #7, their odds dipping slightly despite knocking off Minnesota. The Buckeyes only beat the Gophers by 7 points (we picked the exact margin of victory, *past self on back, 2nd time*), and more importantly, Wisconsin elevated themselves with their win over Nebraska, making Ohio State's path to 12-1 tougher. It also took away a potential win over an 11-1 Cornhusker team. Now they face a Wisconsin team that already lost to LSU, an SEC West also-ran. At least Virginia Tech beat Duke, which evened the Hokies' record at 5-5, so OSU doesn't have a loss to a losing team any more.
Marshall will probably debut in the Committee rankings this week, but even as they go 10-0 with a solid win over Rice (they won 42-14; for comparison, Notre Dame won 48-17 and Texas A&M 38-10) their odds drop slightly as the Committee rankings become paramount. There are still too many 1-loss Power Five teams, and the Committee is putting 2- and even 3-loss teams ahead of the Herd. They should still be in good shape for the New Years' Day bowl reserved for Group of Five conference champs, but we'll know more on Tuesday. Colorado State is another potential New Year's Day bowl choice and they should come in at #24 this Tuesday, but they'd have to win the Mountain West and it's looking less likely that they'll make the title game; they slip to #15, down from 2.6% to 1.8%.
Now the changes start. Georgia demolished Auburn and jumps 8 spots to #9. The Bulldogs have a real chance to win the SEC title game—if they can get there. They need Missouri to lose, which is pretty likely since the Tigers play both Tennessee and Arkansas. Missouri moves up to #21 after beating Texas A&M but the road ahead is tough and that loss to Indiana might keep them out even as SEC champs!
Michigan State and Mississippi slide up as Duke falls after losing to Virginia Tech. The Spartans' chance to make the Big Ten title game are very low, and their Playoff odds dropped a bit; meanwhile Mississippi can still make the SEC title game if they beat Mississippi State and Auburn beats Alabama. Duke goes from 13% odds to 3.5% odds but only falls from #9 to #12 since the numbers are so sparse outside the top 10. Although it's about 50/50 they fall out of the Committee top 25 this week, Blue Devils still should get to the ACC title game (they have UNC and Wake Forest left, and hold the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech) and face Florida State. A win their would make them among the top 2-loss teams, but lots of 1-loss teams have to clear out first.
UCLA made a huge jump from #21 to #13, but it's not hard to move around in the lower ranks; the Bruins' odds only increased 2.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The genesis of the move was the fact that they now control their destiny in the Pac-12 South: they have yet to play USC and hold wins over Arizona State and Arizona. Their low odds of beating Oregon in a rematch—and the low odds of getting in with 2 losses—keep their Playoff Odds correspondingly low. Arizona State falls from #10 to #18 as a result of their loss to Oregon State (an upset we predicted, *pats self on back, 3rd time*) while Arizona rises to #19. Utah and USC also re-enter the rankings at #23 and #24; both can still win the South and therefore have a shot at winning the Pac-12, but the Playoff (and therefore the Rose Bowl) is out of reach.
Wisconsin gave themselves a shot in the arm by beating Nebraska 59-24 but like most 2-loss teams it's probably too little too late. They rise to #14 (3.1% odds) while the Cornhuskers fall to #17. Nebraska had a real chance as a 1-loss team but that's gone for all intents and purposes. Kansas State moves up to #16 but has the 2-loss problem, too, and in the Big Twelve it's worse. Their loss to Auburn isn't as "good" as it was a few weeks ago, either, as the Tigers lost for the 2nd straight week and fall to #22, their odds placed at exactly 0.0% with three losses.
Oklahoma moves back in at #25; the Sooners have three losses and no Playoff chance, but the top 25 will be used for bowl placements so being in it is better than being out. Speaking of being out, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Minnesota all dropped out after receiving their 3rd losses. Clemson was in decent position for the Orange Bowl if they won out, and Notre Dame would have had a good bowl game as a 2-loss team, also. Minnesota was nearly certain to lose somewhere with Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin remaining, so even last week at 7-2 their Playoff Odds were already essentially 0%.
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