The Pac-12 and the Big Twelve came out of the weekend in better shape in the aggregate, though for the latter conference there is a big controversy brewing. The Big Ten and SEC were hurt by upsets that knocked some of their tops teams down to 2-loss status.
First, the winners. Arizona State's defeat of Notre Dame made the Sun Devils a bona fide alternative to Oregon should the Ducks lose along the way. The 55-31 win almost made up for ASU's earlier 62-27 loss to UCLA, though it would help if Oregon is 11-1 going into the Pac-12 title game; if ASU can finish 12-1 with wins over Notre Dame and Oregon they will have a strong argument for Playoff inclusion.
The Big Twelve is in stronger position for a Playoff bid after Saturday, as TCU handled Kansas State easily, 41-20, and more importantly, Baylor beat Oklahoma (soundly, 48-14). Now the conference has two possibilities to pick from and a controversy brewing as a) there is no conference championship game, b) Baylor already beat TCU, and c) TCU is ranked ahead in last week's Committee ranking and probably will remain ahead this Tuesday. Still, the conference as a whole was helped, even if the Committee would have had it a lot better with a TCU loss; that way, the regular-season-ending Baylor-Kansas State game could have been a Playoff entry game.
The Big Ten was a partial loser, however. Michigan State was the conference's best hope and they were beaten soundly by Ohio State. The Spartans already had the "Oregon problem" but they could have slipped in along with the Ducks, or in place of them if Oregon lost again. Ohio State, however, has a much bigger "Virginia Tech problem" as the Hokies are 4-5 and beat the Buckeyes in Columbus; if OSU wins the Big Ten and there are an abundance of 1-loss teams they could easily be the odd man out. On the other hand, the Ohio State "brand" name is probably worth something, given that the Committee has already shown some name bias, and if they want the Buckeyes in they can rationalize the loss as "early in the season."
The SEC took a slight hit and it was almost worse. Auburn suffered their 2nd loss which cuts the number of 1-loss or better SEC teams to two, and Alabama nearly lost that distinction, too. The SEC's bid to get two teams in the Playoff is getting complicated; though they're probably the only conference where a 2-loss team will have a chance, that won't happen if there are enough viable 1-loss teams.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds charts for 11/9/2014 (post-week 11)
Last week |
11/9 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
11/9 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
CFP |
|||
Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
W | L | W | L | ||||||||
1 | 1 | Florida St | 70.2 | -8.3 | 9-0 | 11 | 1 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 12.3% | 2 |
3 | 2 | Oregon | 62.8 | +15.0 | 9-1 | 12 | 1 | 11.6 | 1.4 | 66.1% | 3 |
2 | 3 | Mississippi St | 52.7 | -0.2 | 9-0 | 10 | 2 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 2.2% | 1 |
4 | 4 | TCU | 46.9 | +4.7 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 86.2% | 5 |
6 | 5 | Alabama | 44.1 | +20.3 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 27.1% | 4 |
9 | 6 | Baylor | 33.3 | +22.4 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 73.0% | 7 |
10 | 7 | Ohio State | 26.0 | +15.8 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 41.3% | 8 |
8 | 8 | Marshall | 13.0 | +0.4 | 9-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.7 | 0.3 | 50.9% | -- |
13 | 9 | Duke | 13.0 | +4.9 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 26.5% | 19 |
19 | 10 | Arizona St | 11.3 | +8.9 | 8-1 | 10 | 2 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 7.7% | 6 |
16 | 11 | Nebraska | 5.6 | +0.4 | 8-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 8.4% | 11 |
7 | 12 | Michigan St | 5.0 | -18.4 | 7-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 36.1% | 13 |
15 | 13 | Mississippi | 3.1 | -3.3 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 25.0% | 10 |
18 | 14 | Colorado St | 2.6 | +0.1 | 9-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 41.3% | 24 |
5 | 15 | Auburn | 2.4 | -37.5 | 7-2 | 8 | 4 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 8.6% | 9 |
17 | 16 | Clemson | 1.5 | -3.2 | 7-2 | 9 | 3 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 20.8% | 18 |
21 | 17 | Georgia | 1.4 | +0.7 | 7-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 19.5% | 16 |
12 | 18 | Kansas St | 1.3 | -6.8 | 7-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 13.2% | 12 |
20 | 19 | Wisconsin | 1.2 | +0.2 | 7-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 16.5% | 21 |
11 | 20 | Notre Dame | 1.1 | -8.7 | 7-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 16.5% | 17 |
22 | 21 | UCLA | 0.9 | +0.4 | 8-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 11.7% | 14 |
24 | 22 | Arizona | 0.3 | 0.0 | 7-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 3.7% | 15 |
-- | 23 | Georgia Tech | 0.2 | +0.2 | 8-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 3.4% | 20 |
-- | 24 | Missouri | < 0.1 | 0.0 | 7-2 | 7 | 5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 0.5% | -- |
-- | 25 | Minnesota | < 0.1 | 0.0 | 7-2 | 7 | 5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 0.2% | -- |
Dropped out: #14 Oklahoma, #23 LSU, #25 Utah
Florida State won another lackluster game, defeating Virginia 34-20, and they remain the most likely team to get a bid even as the Miami game looks dicey. We have to assume they'll make it out of there alive, though. Their odds dip to 70% but they keep the "top seed."
Oregon pushes past Mississippi State as their path gets clearer: they've clinched the North berth in the Pac-12 title game and are likely to finish 12-1, and they'll be firmly entrenched in the Committee's top 4 come Tuesday.
Mississippi State remained undefeated but have two tough games left against Alabama and Mississippi. With Alabama likely the Committee's #4 team come Tuesday, the Bulldogs can't afford a loss to the Tide if they want to win the SEC West. They can, however, get away with losing to rival Mississippi and with an SEC title at 12-1 would be assured a bid. The path to a 2-bid SEC probably has to be: Alabama beats Mississippi State, and both 1-loss teams make it.
That became questionable due to TCU's win over Kansas State, coupled with Baylor's win over Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs will probably stay #5 on Tuesday—though they might jump Alabama, who needed overtime to beat LSU—and they remain our #4 most likely bid at just under 50%. Baylor will close some of the gap with the Committee, probably to #7, and they move up to #6 on our Odds Chart with a solid 1 in 3 chance. TCU's schedule from here is easy, hence the 86% chance to win out, and Baylor is likely to finish 11-1 as well though they play Kansas State on December 6. The Committee will have to decide how it wants to weigh Baylor's 61-58 home head-to-head win, but it's pretty certain one team or the other will make it if both are 11-1.
Ohio State replaced Michigan State, essentially, in the rankings at #7. A Spartan win would have moved Michigan State into the next level, but Ohio State is about where MSU was last week. Even if they win out and beat an 11-1 Nebraska, they'll need help. Nebraska might actually be the more viable of the two at 12-1, but they too would need several 1-loss teams to clear out (and they have to play Wisconsin yet).
Marshall hangs out at #8 and we still don't think they'll get recognition from the Committee on Tuesday, though they might come in at #24 or #25. There's been carnage but not enough for the Thundering Herd to look like an alternative given the Committee's pronouncements so far. So, too, for 9-1 Colorado State, who moves up to #14 with just a 2.6% chance as other teams' odds slide toward oblivion. Odds for losing teams are falling so fast that Clemson, who drops from 4.7% to 1.5%, actually moves up a spot at #16.
Duke and Arizona State are the "alternate" teams in the ACC and Pac-12, and will have to upset the big favorites that sit at #1 and #2 in our Odds Chart this week. Duke is at #9 and ASU #10; the Committee will probably rank them #19 and #6 this Tuesday, but Duke's chance to win out and upset FSU are far greater than Arizona State's chance to win out and upset Oregon. Note that neither is guaranteed a spot under these scenarios, of course. ASU's profile is better right now but we have them losing to Arizona on the road, while Duke should go 11-1 (we'll see).
Three-time losers Oklahoma, LSU, and Utah drop off the chart, leaving us with 25 teams with one or two losses, and no one else to consider. Georgia Tech re-enters as they look like the best team in the ACC Coastal (they trail Duke) while Missouri and Minnesota fill in the last spots. Both are 7-2 currently but are underdogs in their last three games (the Tigers to Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Arkansas, the Gophers to Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin), while still controlling their destiny to win the SEC and Big Ten. Both teams' odds barely register above absolute zero, but we need 25 teams so here there are. There is still hope!
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