Our College Football Playoff forecast looks a bit different this week, as usual. On the field, it was a play here, a play there that made a difference in several big games. But not all of the shakeup is because of what happened on the field: the Committee's first rankings tipped their hat concerning their opinion of certain teams; that gave a boost to some while weighing down others.
Florida State beat Louisville 42-31 on the road, surviving perhaps their toughest test left on their schedule (though more keep popping up—see Florida and Miami), while Mississippi State held on to beat Arkansas 17-10. Not surprisingly, the only two major undefeated teams keep their top spots in the projection, with FSU now at 78.5%, their highest certainty since week 3. The Bulldogs peek over the 50% mark, with tough tests looming at Auburn and Alabama.
Oregon moves up a notch to #3 and TCU slips in at #4. The Ducks dominated Stanford 45-16 and the rest of their path looks manageable; TCU escaped with a 31-30 win at West Virginia and their path is even easier than Oregon's, as they don't have a conference title game and they've played the hardest part of the schedule already. But despite their "easy" paths, they're still both below 50% certainty as both yet face tough conference opponents (Oregon vs. Utah, TCU vs. Kansas State this week). And at this point, winning out still doesn't guarantee either a Playoff spot; the SEC situation will affect that greatly.
We no longer have two SEC teams in our top four, but the next two at #5 and #6 are Auburn and Alabama, so depending on how the SEC shakes out two representatives is very possible. One of the Committee's main revelations is that they considered Auburn to be well ahead of Alabama, and after the Tigers' 35-31 win at Mississippi that notion should only be stronger. The two will meet in Tuscaloosa to settle things head-to-head in any case.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 10 (11/02/2014)
Last week |
11/2 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
11/2 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
CFP |
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 1 | 1 | Florida St | 78.5 | +16.8 | 8-0 | 12 | 0 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 12.7% | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | Mississippi St | 52.9 | +5.4 | 8-0 | 10 | 2 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 4.3% | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | Oregon | 47.8 | +15.1 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 41.5% | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | TCU | 42.3 | +12.2 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 59.6% | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | Auburn | 39.8 | +17.7 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 14.5% | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | Alabama | 23.8 | -23.3 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 16.3% | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | Michigan St | 23.4 | -7.4 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 27.1% | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | Marshall | 12.7 | -2.5 | 8-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.6 | 0.4 | 40.5% | -- |
| 12 | 9 | Baylor | 10.9 | -1.8 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 15.3% | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | Ohio State | 10.2 | +0.3 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 14.8% | 15 |
| 10 | 11 | Notre Dame | 9.8 | -3.9 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 13.1% | 10 |
| 18 | 12 | Kansas St | 8.1 | +4.4 | 7-1 | 9 | 3 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 7.0% | 7 |
| 16 | 13 | Duke | 8.1 | +1.6 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 10.0% | 22 |
| 15 | 14 | Oklahoma | 7.1 | +0.3 | 6-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 67.8% | 14 |
| 7 | 15 | Mississippi | 6.3 | -16.2 | 7-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 29.6% | 9 |
| 14 | 16 | Nebraska | 5.2 | -1.7 | 8-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 8.5% | 13 |
| 17 | 17 | Clemson | 4.7 | -1.0 | 6-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 29.3% | 18 |
| 19 | 18 | Colorado St | 2.5 | 0.0 | 8-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 34.0% | -- |
| 23 | 19 | Arizona St | 2.4 | +1.1 | 7-1 | 9 | 3 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5% | 12 |
| 24 | 20 | Wisconsin | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 12.6% | 25 |
| 11 | 21 | Georgia | 0.7 | -12.5 | 6-2 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 9.8% | 20 |
| -- | 22 | UCLA | 0.6 | +0.3 | 7-2 | 10 | 2 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 7.2% | 16 |
| -- | 23 | LSU | 0.5 | +0.2 | 7-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 7.1% | 17 |
| 21 | 24 | Arizona | 0.3 | -1.4 | 6-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 3.9% | 19 |
| 22 | 25 | Utah | 0.2 | -1.1 | 6-2 | 9 | 3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 2.3% | 21 |
Dropped out: #20 East Carolina, #25 West Virginia Others receiving "votes": Georgia Tech (7-2), Iowa (6-2), Missouri (7-2), West Virginia (6-3), Louisville (6-3), Minnesota (6-2)
The Committee speaks: Michigan State is behind Oregon; Marshall unranked; Notre Dame dumped
Another thing the Committee made clear is that Oregon is firmly ahead of Michigan State (whom they beat, after all, by 19 points). The Coaches' poll seems to have gotten the message, finally, as the Ducks pushed to #5 and knocked the Spartans to #6 (the same switch happened with Auburn and Alabama, in both the AP and USA polls). The polls did a lot of conforming to the Committee's rankings, including moving TCU up a number of spots—normally a 1-point win doesn't do that.
So the Spartans fall to #7 here, as their standing with the Committee turned out to be lower than polls were indicating. Another team unlucky with the Committee was Marshall, but in the case of the Herd they were just screwed; there should be a spot among the top 25 teams for a strong 8-0 team. It dings them slightly in our projection but they move up a spot due to other teams losing.
Those losing teams (Ole Miss, Georgia) helped Baylor and Ohio State move up three spots each. Both are underdogs in big games (Baylor at Oklahoma, the Buckeyes at Michigan State) this coming weekend and until they can win those their Playoff odds are just into double digits.
Notice that Notre Dame didn't take the same advantage, falling a spot instead of moving up. The Irish looked weak again at Navy, winning 49-39 but again, the main cause of their drop in the polls was that the Committee put them at #10 instead of #6 or #7. That means things aren't looking so rosy for a 1-loss Irish, and certainly not as a 2-loss squad. The idea was that the close loss to FSU might either consecrate them as worthy by itself, or put them in position to take advantage of a Seminole stumble. Now they have to win out and hope for the best—pretty much like everyone else, really.
Kansas State, Duke hope to steal conference championships
Baylor and Oklahoma were the Big Twelve favorites going into the season. TCU was the first to crash the party, now Kansas State is making its move, playing better every week. The Wildcats crushed Oklahoma State 48-14 (does it seem everyone is destroying the Cowboys except FSU?) and next week they visit the Horned Frogs. They move up to #12 this week, still weighed down by the task of facing TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor yet, but for now the Committee likes their only loss being Auburn, 20-14, as well as the win over Oklahoma, who the Wildcats passed for the first time in the projection.
Duke is moving even more quietly, looking for an ACC Coastal crown that will allow them another shot at Florida State. The way the Seminoles are looking these days the Blue Devils might have a reasonable shot. We favor Duke in every game left (prior to the title game) but the cumulative odds suggest a stumble somewhere before that is likely.
Pac-12 picture clearer, but four South teams are technically Playoff-alive
UCLA's win over Arizona doubled the Bruins' meager hopes, and knocked Arizona back to reality. The Wildcats didn't fall far on our chart (from #21 to #24) because we didn't give them a lot of chance to make the Playoff to begin with; they were expected to lose to the Bruins and will probably lose one more.
Arizona State beat Utah in overtime, pushing the Utes down to #25 while the Sun Devils move up to #19. Really, these important Pac-12 South games barely changed anything since the winner of the South has to go through Oregon, and three of the four have 2 losses which means even if they were to win out, they'd have very long Playoff odds.
Do SEC also-rans still have a shot?
Mississippi was undefeated two games ago, now they're 7-2 and ranked #15 in the projection. They still show a 6.3% to make the Playoff. To reach the SEC title game would require a lot to fall into place; the Rebels can beat Mississippi State but the Bulldogs would have to lose another one. Maybe Alabama, but the Tide would have to lose another one, and Auburn needs to lose twice...in short, the best hope for Ole Miss, as well as LSU (new at #23), is for chaos and a mess of 2-loss teams around the nation.
Georgia lost to Florida but has a much easier path to the title game, but even if they play it near home they don't look as capable as the Rebels. They will get Todd Gurley back after another game, but the 2-loss teams are in a holding pattern until most of the 1-loss teams are killed off, and right now there are a lot of them.
Comments