SportsRatings: College Football

Playoff Odds, week 14: One weekend left, 3 teams are locks if they win

Not many upsets happened over the long weekend, and the one that did was pretty much predicted by our Strength power rating. That means that the top four teams remain unchanged from last weekend, but the order switches a bit.

Alabama takes over the #1 spot for two reasons: one, they beat Auburn, and two, Missouri made it to the SEC championship. The benefits of the former are obvious, but the latter means that the Tide won't have to face Georgia in Atlanta, which was around a 50/50 proposition. Missouri is an 80% likely win for Alabama, but then again Mizzou has been bucking the odds for several weeks now.

Oregon wiped out Oregon State and improved their odds to 86% even as they drop to #2. Since that's their rank in the Committee's standings, they were destined to drop their regardless if Alabama won out. They'll rematch Arizona next week and could be the only team that has avenged its losses for the year. With Alabama playing an easier foe, there's a small chance Oregon claims the #1 seed with a win, but it's unlikely.

Florida State had its predictable challenge to overcome, and once again they did it, edging Florida 24-19. They'll play Georgia Tech in the ACC title game and our power ratings predict an upset, but it's basically 50/50 and FSU could still squeeze in with a loss if other things go their way. In fact, all of the top three still has a chance if they lose, but those scenarios are complicated and no one knows how the Committee would handle chaos.

TCU remained number 4 as the expected loss by Mississippi State cleared a path for the Horned Frogs with the Committee. They're the only team that isn't secure, however; they play Iowa State, which won't improve their standing, while the teams below them play ranked opponents. But with a (projected) solid #4 ranking and an almost certain victory next week, they move above 50% in Playoff Odds so we finally have a strong prediction for the field of four.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds charts for November 30, 2014 (through week 14)

Last week	11/30 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/30 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 12/2 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
3	1	Alabama	90.4	+18.5	11-1	12	1	11.8	1.2	80%	1
1	2	Oregon	86.8	+8.3	11-1	12	1	11.8	1.2	76%	2
2	3	Florida St	71.4	-5.4	12-0	12	1	12.5	0.5	47%	3
4	4	TCU	64.1	+20.2	10-1	11	1	11.0	1.0	99%	4
7	5	Ohio State	36.4	+9.8	11-1	12	1	11.5	1.5	52%	5
6	6	Baylor	21.3	-6.4	10-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	69%	6
14	7	Arizona	8.8	+7.4	10-2	10	3	10.2	2.8	24%	7
5	8	Mississippi St	5.5	-35.0	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	8.5
8	9	Michigan St	4.7	-2.7	10-2	10	2	10.0	2.0	n/a	8.5
12	10	Wisconsin	3.2	+0.2	10-2	10	3	10.5	2.5	48%	11
13	11	Kansas St	2.9	+0.1	9-2	9	3	9.3	2.7	31%	10
18	12	Georgia Tech	2.5	+2.0	10-2	11	2	10.5	2.5	53%	12
17	13	Missouri	1.0	+0.4	10-2	10	3	10.2	2.8	20%	13
10	14	Marshall	0.5	-5.0	11-1	12	1	11.7	1.3	66%	--
22	15	Mississippi	0.2	+0.2	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	14
11	16	UCLA	0.2	-4.4	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	15
9	17	Georgia	0.0	-5.9	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	16
15	18	Arizona St	0.0	-1.1	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	17.5
24	19	Clemson	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	17.5
23	20	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	8.9	3.1	94%	19
21	21	Louisville	0.0	0.0	9-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	n/a	20
19	22	Auburn	0.0	-0.2	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	21
--	23	Boise St	0.0	0.0	10-2	11	2	10.9	1.1	92%	22
25	24	Utah	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	23.5
20	25	Minnesota	0.0	0.0	8-4	8	4	8.0	4.0	n/a	23.5

Dropped out: Colorado State

Other major contenders: Ohio State and Baylor

Ohio State beat Michigan and as of last week was ahead of Baylor in the Committee standings. Baylor struggled against Texas Tech which doesn't help their cause and makes beating Kansas State look more doubtful. Their games next week—vs. Wisconsin and vs. Kansas State, respectively—are about equal in terms of weight, but Baylor is more likely to win their game. It's clear that Baylor's schedule has been a drag on their ranking, and that winning the Big Twelve by having the best record isn't going to be treated the same as winning a conference championship game. Nor does it appear that Baylor is catching up to TCU, despite beating the Horned Frogs earlier. Their only hope is to edge closer to TCU on Tuesday, and their near-loss to the Red Raiders makes that less likely. So for now, TCU's main competition for the 4th spot is Ohio State, not Baylor. That could change Tuesday as the Committee has been unpredictable before.

Also: What is not reflected here is the probable loss of JT Barrett for next week's game against the Badgers.

Other minor contenders

#7 Arizona is probably the best-positioned 2-loss team, in that if they beat Oregon there will be no argument against putting them above the Ducks—they will have defeated them twice on the year. Getting past the 1-loss teams would be the chore, so they'd need help.

Though Mississippi State and Michigan State rate the next highest percentage chance to sneak in as a 2-loss team, neither will be a conference champ so their odds of moving up are slim. They won't lose, though, and the teams below them probably will, so they are more likely to hold a higher rank. If all hell breaks loose and only Alabama is left standing next week, the Bulldogs' close loss would be their argument, along with SEC West dominance. It probably wouldn't hold water against the other conference champs' arguments. Michigan State, too, could argue it lost only to two Playoff teams—Oregon and Ohio State, potentially—but is that a good argument? That they already lost to Playoff teams?

If Wisconsin beats Ohio State they'll be a conference champ but they lost to Northwestern. They, too, would need a lot of 1-loss teams to lose, and even then it's questionable. They rate fairly high because their odds of upsetting Ohio State are pretty good.

Kansas State could help themselves with an upset of Baylor, but it doesn't look like there's any way for the Wildcats to be an official conference champion. A three-way tie between K-State, TCU, and Baylor would be broken by games vs. West Virginia—eliminating Baylor—and then TCU would win the conference on head-to-head vs. K-State.

Georgia Tech sails up to #12 after upsetting Georgia, but Missouri might have foiled their plans. The Yellow Jackets have better odds of beating FSU than Missouri does of Alabama which is why they're ahead, but winning the SEC would give a bigger boost than winning the ACC. If Missouri had lost to Arkansas, Georgia would have been in the SEC final, and if they'd won, Georgia Tech could claim both an ACC title and a win over the SEC champ.

The 'coulda been' contenders...

Marshall lost a wild game to Western Kentucky, 67-66, which accelerated the already downward plunge of their odds. The Committee wasn't going to care if they were 13-0 and certainly won't care if they are 12-1, but our formula still shows a token amount. Their concern now is a New Year's Day bowl which they could still get if they beat Louisiana Tech and Boise State loses to Fresno State.

Mississippi has some great wins—Alabama, Mississippi State—but their three losses won't let them near the prize. Same for UCLA, who controlled their destiny but couldn't control Stanford, losing 31-10 to finish 9-3.

Georgia was in the best position of any 2-loss team last week but lost in overtime to Georgia Tech. As it turns out that didn't matter, since they weren't going to win the SEC East in any case. But the loss really hurts their bowl standing.

Arizona State would have won the Pac-12 South had they managed to get past Arizona. Instead they fall somewhere into the Pac-12 bowl pecking order.

Western Kentucky ends Marshall's perfect season in overtime, 67-66

67-66  might look like a basketball score, but it's still football season, and Western Kentucky's victory today is far more significant on the gridiron. Though Marshall took their first lead of the game in overtime at 66-59, the Hilltoppers scored immediately and went for the 2-point conversion and the win, ending Marshall's bid for a perfect season. It also quashed any debate over whether an undefeated team with a weak schedule deserves more love from the Playoff Committee than they were getting (Marshall was just #24 at 11-0).

There were 15 touchdown passes thrown in the game including two in overtime. Rakeem Cato threw 7 for Marshall and Brandon Doughty threw 8 for WKU, and Doughty led in passing yards 491 to 417. Cato was intercepted 4 times to Doughty's 2 picks. Appropriately, both teams had two receivers topping 100 yards: Taywan Taylor and Jared Dangerfield for Western Kentucky, and Davonte Allen and Tommy Shuler for the Herd. Tyler Higbee for the Hilltoppers was just shy at 99 yards, but he had three touchdown grabs.

Amazingly, in addition to all the passing both teams had a running back who topped 200 yards: Leon Allen had 237 for WKU and Steward Butler 233 for the Thundering Herd. The total offense figures were astounding: 738 yards for Western Kentucky, 708 for Marshall, for a grand total of 1,446.

Western Kentucky held leads of 7 to 14 points throughout the first half until Marshall tied the game at 49-all in the third. The Hilltoppers built the lead back to 10 points, but Marshall again rallied to put it in overtime.

Western Kentucky is 7-5 and the win should ensure a bowl bid as the C-USA has many tie-in games. Marshall is 11-1 and will play in the C-USA championship game against Louisiana Tech. Though they weren't in position to have a chance at the 4-team national championship Playoff, they were the 2nd highest-rated Group of Five conference team and had a good chance at playing on a New Year's Day bowl if they finished 13-0; now they'll likely go to the Liberty Bowl, assuming they can overcome their disappointment and win next week.

 

Heisman Watch, pre-week 14: Gordon, Mariota are #1 and #1a

We're going into the long weekend of week 14, which means there are just one or two games left for the Heisman hopefuls. Our top candidate might have just one game and that could be the difference in who wins the trophy.

Melvin Gordon started slow but finished with 200 yards against Iowa, enough to hold a tenous lead over Marcus Mariota, who added 4 more total touchdowns. Mariota now has a crazy 33:2 ratio with 9 rushing TDs, while Gordon has 2,109 rushing yards and 27 total touchdowns. Mariota has two games left—Oregon State and the Pac-12 title game—while Gordon faces Minnesota and, if Wisconsin wins that game, Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. If they lose, Gordon has just one more game to add to his stats, and that hurts, but a win plus a big game against the Buckeyes could bring home the trophy. So in a way it's fitting: Gordon needs to lead the Badgers to a win this Saturday to strengthen his Heisman chances.

If Wisconsin loses this weekend, Mariota will probably take home the Heisman if the Ducks win out—at least in our estimation. Our third-place candidate, Amari Cooper, is well behind the others but like Gordon has a must-win game Saturday—vs. Auburn—to get to the SEC championship game. The problem is that Cooper was hurt against Western Carolina and is questionable for the game against the Tigers.

Just behind Cooper are Dak Prescott and JT Barrett. Prescott also needs a win—vs. rival Ole Miss—to get to the SEC championship game, but also needs Alabama to lose. Meanwhile Barrett is already guaranteed an appearance in week 15 vs. either Wisconsin or Minnesota, which means he should be able to pass either Cooper or Prescott—whichever one doesn't play in the SEC title game.

SportsRatings week 13 Heisman leaders: Gordon vs. Mariota down to the wire

1. Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (9-2) beat Iowa 16-14; 200 yards
2. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (10-1) beat Colorado 44-10; 3 pass TDs, 1 rush
3. Amari Cooper, WR Alabama (10-1) beat W Carolina 48-14; 46 rec yards, inj.
4. [up 1] Dak Prescott, QB Miss. State (10-1) beat Vandy 51-0; 3 pass TDs, 1 rush
5. [up 1] JT Barrett, QB Ohio State (10-1) beat Indiana 42-27; 4 TDs, 2 int, 78 rush
6. [dn 2] Jameis Winston, QB FSU (11-0) beat Boston College 20-17; 1 TD, 1 int
7. Trevone Boykin, QB TCU (10-1) idle
8. Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (9-1) beat OK State 49-28; 2 TD, 2 int
9. Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska (8-3) lost to Minn. 28-24; 98 yards
   
   out:

• Kevin White, WR West Virginia (6-5) lost to K-State 26-20; 63 rec, 1 TD
• Todd Gurley, RB Georgia (9-2) beat Ch. Southern 55-9; DNP out for season
• Everett Golson, QB Notre Dame (7-4) lost to Lou 31-28; 2 TD, 1 int
• Kenny Hill, QB Texas A&M

Both Prescott and Barrett push past Jameis Winston, who had another tight win last week over Boston College. He did reasonably well, too, but added another interception, making his ratio a pedstrian 19:13 this season. Even being undefeated and engineering comeback wins doesn't overcome poor stats, and to some extent his picks (and other poor decisions) have been putting his team in the bad situations to start with.

Trevone Boykin and Bryce Petty will both play the final two weeks of the season, giving them time to work their way into a New York appearance possibly. TCU faces Texas and Iowa State while Baylor takes on Texas Tech and Kansas State.

Ameer Abdullah had 98 yards in Nebraska's loss to Minnesota and narrowly made the cut down to 9 candidates this week. Luckily for him three others had worse luck: Kevin White had just an okay game as West Virginia lost again; Todd Gurley is out for the season; and Everett Golson played well enough but Notre Dame lost their 4th game of the season. Those three join Kenny Hill in the also-ran pile.

Week 14 Schedule: Here are the teams the leaders face the rest of the way.

• Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin: Minnesota Sat; if they win, Ohio State
• Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon: Oregon State Sat; then UCLA/Arizona/ASU
• Amari Cooper, WR Alabama: Auburn Sat; if they win or Miss St loses, Georgia/Missouri
• Dak Prescott, QB Miss. State: Mississippi Sat; if they win & Alabama loses, Georgia/Missouri
• JT Barrett, QB Ohio State: Michigan Sat; then Wisconsin/Minnesota
• Jameis Winston, QB FSU: Florida Sat; then Georgia Tech
• Trevone Boykin, QB TCU: Texas Thurs; then Iowa State
• Bryce Petty, QB Baylor: Texas Tech Sat; then Kansas State
• Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska: Iowa Friday

So in all, six of the nine candidates will play two more games for sure: Mariota, Cooper OR Prescott, Barrett, Winston, Boykin, and Petty. Gordon might play one or two more; either Cooper or Prescott will play just one more; and Abdullah has just one game left for sure.

 

Week 14 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Clutch time for Alabama, Mississippi State, TCU

The top seven teams in the College Football Playoff Committee's ratings are all in action between Thursday and Saturday, and though they're all favored in their games, odds are they won't all emerge unscathed. In fact, we're guessing that the majority will lose between now and December 7th when the Playoff pairings are announced. Which ones will lose? Who knows. But here's our take on this (long) weekend's games:

• #15 Auburn (8-3) at #1 Alabama (10-1) 7:45pm ET Sat ESPN
  Line/spread: Alabama by 9.5
  Strength power rating projection: Alabama 30-24
  Yardage + special teams forecast: Alabama 34-24
  Analysis: This had to be the game the Tide circled at the beginning of the season, and now that they're playing like the best team in the country, and at home, it's hard to see them letting up here. If Alabama loses it's more likely to be in the SEC championship game...unless Auburn has some crazy magic left. It looks like they're all out, though, after the close loss to Texas A&M and the blowout loss to Georgia.
  Final prediction: Alabama 34, Auburn 14
  
  
• #2 Oregon (10-1) at Oregon State (5-6) 8pm ET Sat ABC
  Line/spread: Oregon by 19.5
  Strength power rating projection: Oregon 47-21
  Yardage + special teams forecast: Oregon 42-28
  Analysis: Can Oregon State pull off another upset like they did vs. Arizona State? Sadly that win probably makes it less likely they can surprise the Ducks in the rivalry game. The Beavers need the win for bowl eligibility and they've played well at home, taking Utah into overtime in addition to the ASU win. But they also lost to Cal and Washington State at home, so while they might keep up for a while the Ducks probably pull away.
  Final prediction: Oregon 45, Oregon State 28
  
  
• Florida (6-4) at #3 Florida State (11-0) 3:30pm ET Sat ESPN
  Line/spread: Florida State by 7.5
  Strength power rating projection: FSU 28-27
  Yardage + special teams forecast: FSU 31-27
  Analysis: When is Florida State finally going to lose a close one? Once again, Florida provides a stiff test to a vulnerable Seminole team. Criticize FSU's schedule all you want but it's full of tough teams thanks to a non-conference slate of Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and now the Gators, who can be great or just plain awful. Who knows how Florida will play but both the score-based and yardage-based estimates call for another close Florida State win, and given their track record who can argue with that?
  Final prediction: Florida State 30, Florida 28
  
  
• #4 Mississippi State (10-1) at #19 Mississippi (8-3) 3:30pm ET Sat CBS
  Line/spread: Mississippi State by 2
  Strength power rating projection: Ole Miss 26-24
  Yardage + special teams forecast: Ole Miss 35-31
  Analysis: Mississippi State just needs to win this game, and if Alabama beats Auburn their regular season is over at 11-1. That's probably enough to get into the Playoff since they're at #4 right now. That might be a better scenario than having to possibly play Georgia in Atlanta in the SEC final. However, they have to beat rival Ole Miss first, and after last week's loss to Arkansas the Rebels have gone from long-shot Playoff hopefuls to "nothing to lose"—in other words, this game might be more important to them than whatever bowl game they end up in. Both our projections have the Rebels as slight favorites, and we're picking the upset. They just have to get over last week's beatdown, which might be no small task.
  Final prediction: Mississippi 27, Mississippi State 20
  
  
• #5 TCU (9-1) at Texas (6-5) 7:30pm Thu Fox Sports 1
  Line/spread: TCU by 6.5
  Strength power rating projection: TCU 34-19
  Yardage + special teams forecast: TCU 35-21
  Analysis: A thursday game that should be relatively easy for the Horned Frogs, but that was the case with Kansas, too, and Texas is a whole lot better. The Longhorns would have had a better chance at surprising TCU if Kansas hadn't woken them up, but Texas still has a chance as they've been playing a lot better recently than their power ratings and record would indicate. The Longhorns' secret weapon is their pass defense, which ranks #1 on an adjusted basis, and #1 on a per-play basis. Not that TCU can't just kill them on the ground, but it's at least grounds for an upset pick to rock the other prime contender for the #4 Playoff spot.
  Final prediction: Texas 30, TCU 23 OT
  
  
• Michigan (5-6) at #6 Ohio State (10-1) 12pm Sat ABC
  Line/spread: Ohio State by 20.5
  Strength power rating projection: OSU 37-15
  Yardage + special teams forecast: OSU 31-13
  Analysis: Here's an upset every Big Ten hater would love to see, but unlike last year's nail-biter at Ann Arbor it's hard to imagine the Wolverines even keeping this one close. Michigan does have a bowl berth to play for, but that hardly matters; they'd play their best regardless, and inevitably fall short. It would be a big surprise to see a competitive game in Columbus, and the Buckeyes were probably looking ahead once they got ahead of Indiana early. The Michigan program is in such disarray I wouldn't doubt that some players would be thankful for the season to end early. The one good thing the Wolverines can claim is rushing defense, and that should keep a relative lid on Ohio State's score.
  Final prediction: Ohio State 38, Michigan 14
  
  
• #7 Baylor (9-1) vs. Texas Tech (4-7) 3:30pm ET Sat ABC
  Line/spread: Baylor by 24.5
  Strength power rating projection: Baylor 58-26
  Yardage + special teams forecast: Baylor 60-31
  Analysis: A neutral field rivalry game with teams in different situations. Texas Tech is on the ropes with their season over following the game. Baylor needs this win to keep their Playoff hopes alive. Whether they can pass TCU, a team they beat, is questionable since they sit at #7, and they still might need Ohio State and Mississippi State to both lose. The Red Raiders have surprised before when it looked like they were dead in the water, but their defense seems way too porous to expect them to hold back Baylor, even if their offense can make it interesting for a while. Remember they scored 27 on TCU but still lost by 55.
  Final prediction: Baylor 59, Texas Tech 28
  
  Here are a few other games of interest:
  
  
• #13 Arizona State (9-2) at #11 Arizona (9-2) 3:30pm Fri Fox
  Line/spread: No line
  Strength power rating projection: Arizona 35-31
  Yardage + special teams forecast: Arizona 41-35
  Analysis: This game will decide the Pac-12 South unless UCLA beats Stanford, in which case it's moot. No line has been set yet due to the uncertain status of Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon, whose passing has become surprisingly important in a normally run-first Rich Rodriguez offense. Arizona holds a slight edge in our power rating and they're at home, so that's what we'll go with in another unpredictable Pac-12 rivalry game.
  Final prediction: Arizona 38, Arizona State 33
  
  
• #16 Georgia Tech (9-2) at #9 Georgia (9-2) 12noon Sat SEC network
  Line/spread: Georgia by 13
  Strength power rating projection: Georgia 45-29
  Yardage + special teams forecast: Georgia 38-28
  Analysis: Both of these teams are still alive in the Playoff hunt, believe it or not. It's easier to believe that Georgia has a shot; they need to win here, hope Missouri loses, then win the SEC, and hope that's enough. Georgia Tech's resume would get a huge boost from beating the Bulldogs then upsetting Florida State; even still, they would need most or all of the 1-loss teams to tank it, too. But the upshot is that this is an important game, featuring two of the best ground attacks in college football. Georgia once again lost Todd Gurley, but Nick Chubb has been fantastic in relief. The Bulldogs have the edge due to their ability to pass and the home field; the one concern is that their rush defense collapse as it did against Florida.
  Final prediction: Georgia 38, Georgia Tech 28
  
  
• Arkansas (6-5) at #17 Missouri (9-2) 2:30pm Fri CBS
  Line/spread: No line
  Strength power rating projection: Arkansas 24-18
  Yardage + special teams forecast: Arkansas 17-13
  Analysis: Arkansas is playing lights out lately, beating LSU 17-0 and Mississippi 30-0, which means there is no way Missouri will take them lightly. But will that be enough? Arkansas' defense is playing so well it doesn't matter if a team takes them seriously. The Tigers are playing great football, too, so this should be a great game but we expect the Razorbacks to continue their charge and deny Missouri the SEC East title.
  Final prediction: Arkansas 20, Missouri 17

 

Surprised at how good Arkansas is? Computer power ratings knew 2 months ago

Arkansas beat Mississippi 30-0 last week, a result that is even more shocking than their 17-0 win over LSU last week. Before that, the Razorbacks were 4-5 and most would have considered them to be lucky to become bowl-eligible.

But there were signs that Arkansas was getting better. They lost to then-#1 Mississippi State just 17-10, and stayed with current #1 Alabama all the way, losing 14-13. Some wrote those games off as highly-favored teams getting lazy, but there were even earlier signs that Arkansas was a strong team: the much-maligned computer power rating (we have to say "computer" power rating because for some reason the term has been co-opted by anyone who wants to make a ranking of any kind).

Arkansas lost their first game of the season 45-21 to Auburn, a result that was fairly consistent with how good the two teams were last year—Auburn finishing #2 in the nation, and Arkansas ending up just 3-9. The Razorbacks beat Nicholls State 73-7, a result only slightly more impressive than losing to Auburn by 24, but something a 3-9 team couldn't do. Next they beat Texas Tech 49-28; the Red Raiders aren't great, but beating them by three touchdowns is something last year's team couldn't do. Finally, they beat a decent Northern Illinois team 52-14. They were 3-1 on September 20th, and our Strength power rating put them among the top 25 in the nation, in some pretty good company:

 #   Team                        rec   rating  offense        defense
 20. Florida St                  3-0   61.44   51.54 [ 77]   -9.89 [  4]
 21. West Virginia               2-2   60.56   64.88 [ 14]    4.31 [ 62]
 22. Arkansas                    3-1   60.34   62.22 [ 19]    1.88 [ 46]
 23. Louisville                  3-1   59.60   51.58 [ 76]   -8.02 [ 10]
 24. Southern Cal                2-1   58.88   58.39 [ 33]   -0.49 [ 35]

This was an early power rating (after just four weeks) so it might have been a fluke. Having FSU just at #20 might have given one pause, too, but that turns out to be believable. In any case, when Arkansas took highly-regarded Texas A&M (then #6 in the country) into overtime before losing 35-28, it was really just proof that the Razorbacks were a good team. Following the 14-13 loss to Alabama, Arkansas ranked 14th—in other words, 2 losses moved them up 8 spots:

 12. Ohio State                  4-1   67.52   67.51 [  7]   -0.01 [ 47]
 13. LSU                         5-2   67.34   60.17 [ 25]   -7.16 [ 11]
 14. Arkansas                    3-3   67.07   63.78 [ 14]   -3.29 [ 26]
 15. Oregon                      5-1   66.88   64.40 [ 12]   -2.48 [ 33]
 16. Michigan St                 5-1   65.93   67.28 [  8]    1.35 [ 54]

This was 7 weeks into the season and there was little chance of their quality being a fluke. They proved their mettle again against Georgia—another "good" loss at 45-32—and beating UAB 45-17. A week before facing #1 Mississippi State, Arkansas was #17:

 15. Clemson                     6-2   66.47   57.40 [ 37]   -9.06 [  6]
 16. Wisconsin                   5-2   65.76   60.61 [ 26]   -5.14 [ 19]
 17. Arkansas                    4-4   65.47   61.79 [ 21]   -3.67 [ 21]
 18. Notre Dame                  6-1   64.71   58.78 [ 32]   -5.92 [ 14]
 19. Texas A&M                   5-3   64.30   63.70 [ 12]   -0.59 [ 44]

Following the 17-10 loss to Mississippi State and 17-0 crushing of LSU, the Razorbacks were #15, having stayed pretty steady for a few months:

 13. LSU                         7-4   69.60   57.12 [ 34]  -12.48 [  3]
 14. Kansas St                   7-2   67.64   60.60 [ 25]   -7.03 [ 10]
 15. Arkansas                    5-5   66.60   58.87 [ 30]   -7.72 [  6]
 16. Tennessee                   5-5   65.22   58.87 [ 31]   -6.35 [ 13]
 17. UCLA                        8-2   63.75   61.88 [ 19]   -1.86 [ 32]

Arkansas completed their 30-0 shutout of Mississippi and rose to #12. Their offense ranks #25 and defense #5 after giving up just 10 total points to three ranked teams.

 10. Oklahoma                    8-3   68.96   64.64 [  8]   -4.31 [ 17]
 11. Ohio State                 10-1   68.29   67.23 [  5]   -1.05 [ 37]
 12. Arkansas                    6-5   67.75   59.11 [ 25]   -8.64 [  5]
 13. LSU                         7-4   67.56   56.22 [ 34]  -11.33 [  4]
 14. Wisconsin                   9-2   67.46   61.61 [ 15]   -5.84 [ 11]

The Ole Miss win was clearly their best game of the year, and their chart below shows their performances getting better throughout the season.

So while Arkansas is getting better, the fact that they're playing well is no surprise to anyone paying attention to their close losses to quality teams, and even their early wins against mediocre competition. Power ratings were reflecting it all along, and not just ours, of course: the Razorbacks are #16 in the FPI (#8 in efficiency) on ESPN, and Sagarin has them #17 (#13 in Predictor). In our Overall power rating they're #15 after rising to #25 in Success despite being just 6-5—they have wins over LSU and Ole Miss now, and their losses are all to winning teams who were ranked in the top 10 at the time.

A few weeks ago we were going to write a post pitying Arkansas' bowl opponent, but that's no longer necessary—everyone is on alert that, come bowl season, whomever the Razorbacks are matched up against will have their hands full.

 

Playoff Odds, week 13: Oregon, FSU, Alabama control fate; TCU, Miss State on cusp

Three weeks left, and the picture is pretty clear for the top three in the College Football Playoff Committee's top three from last week: Win out and you're in. They all have a rivalry game at home and their conference championship game left. The rest of the field is vying for the 4th spot unless there's an upset somewhere in the top three.

Our projected top three are the top three in the Committee's rankings, but in a different order. Their #2, Oregon, is our #1, meaning they're the most likely to remain in the top four. Whether they get the "top seed" depends on what other teams do. But their path is pretty clear with Oregon State and the Pac-12 title game to go, though both could be difficult given that one is a rivalry game and the South has a number of good teams. We give them about a 2/3 chance of winning out and an almost 80% chance to stay in the top four. Does that mean they can take a loss and still make it? Not likely but stranger things have happened. A loss to Oregon State and a win in the Pac-12 title game makes them a live long shot.

Florida State is a close #2. The Seminoles are still undefeated which is pretty amazing considering how they've gone about it. They have two games left which will each be roughly as tough as any games they've had this year—Florida and Georgia Tech. In the former they host a still-dangerous rival, and in the latter they face a triple option offense that has given them trouble in the past. Like all their games, these are about 50/50 propositions which means they have about a 1 in 4 chance of remaining undefeated...but a 3 in 4 chance of making the playoff. A loss doesn't kill them off, but it puts them among the other 1-loss teams. If none of them lose, then yes, the Seminoles would probably be out given that the Committee wasn't very impressed with them at 10-0.

The Committee's #1, Alabama could have a very tough couple of games left: Auburn at home, and the SEC title game if they beat the Tigers. Our 30% figure assumes they play in the SEC title game; even if they don't, they're going to be first in line among 2-loss teams, and possibly ahead of some 1-loss teams.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart, post-week 13 (Nov. 23, 2014)

Last week	11/23 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/23 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 11/25 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
2	1	Oregon	78.5	+1.7	10-1	12	1	11.6	1.4	65.8%	2
1	2	Florida St	76.7	-10.0	11-0	12	1	12.0	1.0	26.5%	3
3	3	Alabama	71.9	+16.9	10-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	29.7%	1
4	4	TCU	43.9	-2.2	9-1	11	1	10.8	1.2	80.2%	5
5	5	Mississippi St	40.5	+5.3	10-1	10	2	10.4	1.6	13.9%	4
6	6	Baylor	27.7	-6.9	9-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	74.5%	7
7	7	Ohio State	26.6	+3.8	10-1	12	1	10.9	2.1	48.4%	6
10	8	Michigan St	7.5	+2.7	9-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	84.0%	10
9	9	Georgia	6.0	+0.5	9-2	10	2	9.9	2.1	49.0%	9
8	10	Marshall	5.5	-6.1	11-0	13	0	12.7	0.3	68.4%	--
13	11	UCLA	4.6	+1.5	9-2	10	2	9.7	2.3	21.9%	8
14	12	Wisconsin	3.0	-0.1	9-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	39.8%	15
16	13	Kansas St	2.8	+1.3	8-2	9	3	9.2	2.8	23.3%	11
19	14	Arizona	1.4	+0.8	9-2	10	2	9.6	2.4	15.4%	13
18	15	Arizona St	1.1	+0.3	9-2	9	3	9.4	2.6	7.2%	12
15	16	Colorado St	1.0	-0.8	10-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	53.3%	23
21	17	Missouri	0.6	+0.4	9-2	9	3	9.4	2.6	7.6%	18
20	18	Georgia Tech	0.5	-0.1	9-2	10	3	9.7	3.4	7.1%	16
22	19	Auburn	0.2	+0.2	8-3	8	4	8.3	3.7	31.0%	14
--	20	Minnesota	0.0	0.0	8-3	8	4	8.2	3.8	3.6%	17
--	21	Louisville	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	8.8	3.2	76.0%	19
11	22	Mississippi	0.0	-4.3	8-3	9	3	8.6	3.4	58.0%	20(t)
25	23	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	9.0	3.0	95.0%	20(t)
--	24	Clemson	0.0	0.0	8-3	9	3	8.7	3.3	66.0%	22
23	25	Utah	0.0	0.0	7-4	8	4	7.7	4.3	74.0%	24

Dropped out: #12 Duke, #17 Nebraska, #24 USC

The top trio has a clear path but the next four teams are uncertain, and once again it's TCU and Mississippi State that lead the group, and there's only one spot available for the two. The Bulldogs were #4 with the Committee last week and if they beat Mississippi—and don't get in the SEC title game—they finish 11-1 and probably stay in the top four. That might be their best hope, too, because if they have 2 games their odds of winning out are pretty low by our estimates.

TCU's situation is still complicated by their loss to Baylor. If the Bears win out, will the Horned Frogs remain in front? TCU has Texas and Iowa State left, and neither win gains them much—hence the 80% chance to win out but less than 50% chance to make the Playoff. Baylor plays Texas Tech then Kansas State, and the latter gives them a chance to impress. But they're only #7 by the Committee's rankings last Tuesday, so they'd need to pass Ohio State as well as TCU and Mississippi State—unless other teams lose, which is very possible.

Ohio State also plays a rivalry game, hosting Michigan before taking on either Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big Ten title game. The Committee has seemingly forgiven them for losing to Virginia Tech, and the Wisconsin game could give them a boost, but it's high-risk. Beating Minnesota again probably doesn't do much for them. Wisconsin might have an outside shot at the Playoff at 11-2 but Minnesota wouldn't at 10-3, hence their odds of 3% and 0% respectively.

Outside the top seven there's not much immediate hope, as every Power Five team has at least two losses. Some of the rankings, such as Michigan State, better represent their expected finish in the bowl pecking order. It would take a crazy miracle for the Spartans to make the top four but a 10-2 finish would keep them in the Committee top 10. Georgia, at #9, has an actual path to the top four: winning the SEC title game over a 1-loss Alabama or Mississippi State. The problem is that Missouri (our #17) didn't lose as expected and if the Tigers beat Arkansas they'll win the East, not the Bulldogs. Missouri's odds of beating Arkansas and Bama/Miss State are very low, and even that probably doesn't put them in the top four. But they'd be the SEC champs, and that might be hard to ignore. It would be interesting to say the least.

At #11 UCLA is another 2-loss Power Five conference hopeful and they control their destiny to winning the Pac-12. Their odds of doing so are about 20% but their Playoff odds are under 5% since the SEC is the most likely conference to have a 2-loss team in. Other Pac-12 South hopefuls still include Arizona (our #14 this week) and Arizona State (#15) who play this Friday; both will be hoping for a UCLA loss to Stanford to open the door to the title game. Utah was eliminated by Arizona on Saturday.

Georgia Tech is the least likely of the 2-loss usurpers at 0.5%. Not because they can't beat Florida State—it's clear the Seminoles are vulnerable to anyone and right now we favor the Yellow Jackets! But they face Georgia first, and that's what keeps their odds of winning out at just 7%. If they beat the Bulldogs, and then FSU? They pretty much leap to the top of the 2-loss teams. Still doesn't get them in under current circumstances, but circumstances change.

Marshall falls to #10, which is still unrepresentative of their situation. As our projection weighs the Committee's pronouncements more heavily near the end, their odds will continue to take a hit as it becomes clear they might not even make the top 25. Normally a team in their situation would end up near the top 10 in the polls, but the Committee's refusal to place the Herd in their rankings has kept them down with the voters, too, it seems. It's also making their odds of a New Year's Day bowl berth dicey. We don't think they'll be in the Committee's top 25 this week, and Boise State could be, giving the Broncos a better shot at a January 1st bowl despite their 2 losses. Boise is also playing spoiler to Colorado State, which can't be a conference champ unless the Broncos lose to Utah State. The Rams, too, lose some luster but drop back only a spot since Duke and Nebraska each suffered their third loss and fell out altogether.

The teams ranked #19 and below are jockeying for bowl position and have no shot at the Playoff given their 3+ losses. But Auburn might be an exception if all hell breaks loose. Wins over Kansas State, Ole Miss, LSU—and Alabama next week—would make them a top 10 team, and in a crazy universe where every top contender loses twice, they'd be standing near the top when the dust clears. Not terribly plausible, though.

Because the Committee's pronouncements are becoming ever more important, we'll revise these rankings Tuesday evening after they give us their current list. They always throw a few surprises down the pike.

 

One week later: Samaje Perine rushes for 427 yards, breaks Gordon's record

Oklahoma freshman Samaje Perine rushed for 427 yards against Kansas today, breaking Melvin Gordon's one-week-old FBS rushing record. Perine had 34 carries and 5 touchdowns. Gordon needed just 25 carries against Nebraska last week.

Gaining 400 yards against Kansas is quite a different thing from doing so against Nebraska, but if Gordon hadn't broken the record last week no one would question whether Perine's accomplishment was worthy of the record. Ladainian Tomlinson's 406 yards came against UTEP, not exactly a powerhouse.

As it is, there will be inevitable comparisons. Gordon's feat is probably more impressive, but that's like comparing an A to an A+. Or rather, and A+ to an A++. But the real question is: Who will break the record next week?

 

 

Heisman Trophy week 12: Melvin Gordon's 408 quakes the rankings

Going into the weekend, Wisconsin's showdown with Nebraska was a pretty big deal for the Heisman Trophy. It was going to be the return of Ameer Abdullah, facing Melvin Gordon in a showdown for the best running back in the Big Ten. It might determine which back gets an invitation to the New York ceremony, it was thought.

Gordon was #3 in our rankings and there were a number of possibilities concerning his performance. Realistically, he might:

• Rush for fewer than 50 yards in a loss to Nebraska; that might drop him out of the top five.
• Rush for fewer than 100 yards; that would hurt him but wouldn't be a knockout blow.
• Rush for over 100 yards; that might hold him at #3
• Rush for over 200 yards. A performance like that could elevate him to #2, depending on what happened with Mississippi State's Dak Prescott

With Oregon's Marcus Mariota a very solid #1 and idle this week, the top spot wasn't in contention under ordinary circumstances. But there were two possibilities we didn't really consider:

• That Gordon might top 300 yards. Something like that? Might put him in a virtual tie with Mariota.
• That Gordon might top 400 yards and break the all-time NCAA Division I-A rushing record with 408 yards.

The last option is, indeed, what happened. And because of it, we have no choice but to make Melvin Gordon our new leader in the Heisman race. Marcus Mariota is a very solid #2, and he'll still have ample opportunity to convince us he should be #1. In fact, Oregon didn't have a loss, maybe he'd still be #1. Previous #2 Dak Prescott, of course, lost to Alabama while throwing three interceptions, and he falls to #5.

Week 12: Melvin Gordon rushes to the front of the list

1. [up 2] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (8-2) beat Nebraska 59-24; 408 yards, new NCAA record
2. [dn 1] Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (9-1) idle
3. [up 2] Amari Cooper, WR Alabama (9-1) beat Miss. St 25-20; 88 rec yards
4. Jameis Winston, QB FSU (10-0)
5. [dn 3] Dak Prescott, QB Miss. State (9-1) LOST to Alabama 25-20; 3 INT
6. [up 4] JT Barrett, QB Ohio State (9-1) beat Minnesota 31-24; 3 TDs pass, 189 yds rush
7. Trevone Boykin, QB TCU (9-1) beat Kansas 34-30; 1 TD, 1 int
8. Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (8-1) idle
9. [dn 3] Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska (8-2) LOST to Wisconsin 59-24; 69 yards
10. [dn 1] Kevin White, WR West Virginia (6-4) idle
11. Todd Gurley, RB Georgia (8-2) beat Auburn 34-7; 138 yds (2nd on team)
12. Everett Golson, QB Notre Dame (7-3) lost to Northwestern 43-40ot; 4 total TDs
    
    out:

• Kenny Hill, QB Texas A&M (7-4) LOST to Missouri 34-27; did not play

Amari Cooper moves up to #3 for another solid performance against Mississippi State. He had 88 receiving yards, and while he's not regularly going over 100 he's coming close, and making a difference in Alabama's close games. Bama QB Blake Sims is #2 in QBR, and Cooper has been a big cause of Sims' success.

Cooper jumps #4 Jameis Winston, who did his usual "throw picks in the first half, save the game in the 2nd" against Miami. Winston's TD:int ratio is now a lowly 18:12, but his team is still undefeated. 1st-half Winston wouldn't be on this list; 2nd-half Winston might be the leader—if not for his off-field baggage, another reason his upside is limited.

Dak Prescott's TD:int ratio isn't that great anymore after throwing 3 picks vs. Alabama. His Mississippi State team now has one loss, just like the trio of quarterbacks that follow him: JT Barrett of Ohio State, Trevone Boykin of TCU, and Bryce Petty of Baylor.

Barrett is coming on strong late, and his 3 pass TD, 189 yard rushing performance against Minnesota is why he leaps from #10 to #6. Boykin wasn't up to Heisman par against Kansas but he holds at #7; and Petty was idle. Each of the three had a terrible game in their sole loss. How many games their team wins from here on will be a main determinant in which of the five (including Prescott and Winston) gets to New York. Winning is still a possibility for some, but a top-three finish is probably the most realistic goal. Note that TCU and Baylor won't play in a conference championship game, and the Bulldogs probably won't, while the Seminoles and Buckeyes (probably) will. TCU and Baylor both play games on the final week of consideration, however, which helps.

The line of no hope is crossed right here...

Ameer Abdullah had yet another sub-100 yard game, and the comparison between he and Gordon was just too stark. He falls to #9 and looks out of it. Kevin White of West Virginia didn't have a game this weekend, but Amari Cooper has taken over the leading wide receiver slot and that classification doesn't have room for two.

But those two are still better off than Todd Gurley and Everett Golson. Gurley came back and had over 100 yards, but was only the 2nd best back on his team as sub Nick Chubb continued to excel. Golson had a good game against Northwestern but the Irish suffered their 3rd loss, in overtime. Both will be gone next week when major culls start. For now we leave Golson steady at #12 and Gurley, who tore his ACL and won't be back this season, at #11.

This week we only remove one candidate, and it's long overdue: Kenny Hill, who missed two games due to suspension, and didn't play when eligible to return, is the first dismissal.

 

Playoff Odds, week 12: Alabama replaces Mississippi State, TCU holds on

There wasn't much change at the top of this week's College Football Playoff odds chart, except for the obvious replacement of Mississippi State with Alabama at the #3 spot.The bigger moves were all outside the top 8.

Florida State remained #1 and increased their odds to their highest total yet, even higher than the 83.5% chance we gave them in the pre-season when they were forecast to be nearly unbeatable. Their odds of winning out still don't match what we gave them back then, amazingly. But with 10 wins under their belt and the Committee rankings becoming more important to our forecast, the Seminoles are in good shape. We don't know whether the Committee will put them #1 or #2 come Tuesday so we hedge, but we think in the end a 13-0 FSU would probably take the top seed. The question is whether a 1-loss FSU would get in, and that's debatable, but as the number of 1-loss teams dwindles that becomes more likely, too.

Oregon remains #2 in an idle week but increases their odds to 77%. That's mostly from the Committee's unexpected decision to jump them to #2 last Tuesday, which means they could be #1 on the 18th. Like FSU, we can safely say that if they win out, they're in. Oregon State's upset of Arizona State dinged them in three ways: 1) they won't have a 1-loss ASU to beat in the Pac-12 title game, 2) Oregon State looks a bit tougher to beat, and 3) UCLA probably wins the Pac-12 and will be tougher than ASU would have been. This adds up to very little concern, however, reducing their odds to win out from 66.1% to 65.6%.

Alabama controls their Playoff destiny, too. The Committee only had them #5 last weeks so we figure they'll be #3 on Tuesday, but with the Committee you never know. In any case they appear headed for the Playoff, but Georgia is going to be a tough obstacle assuming the Bulldogs win the East; if Missouri gets in, Alabama's life gets much easier. They still have to beat Auburn, too, of course.

TCU might only be #5 in the Committee's list this week, based on where Mississippi State landed in the AP and Coaches' polls. The Horned Frogs had trouble with Kansas (which we predicted, *pats own back*) but survived, and Minnesota's loss diminished one of their better wins. On the other hand, they beat the Gophers 30-7 while Ohio State won 31-24. We still see TCU as the most likely 4th team based mainly on their easy path ahead, though if Mississippi State wins out it they might be bumped, and there's always the loss to Baylor looming if both are 11-1. Fittingly, TCU is still under 50% likelihood.

College Football Playoff odds chart, post-week 12 (11/16/2014)

Last week	11/16 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/16 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFPc 11/18 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	86.7	+16.5	10-0	13	0	11.9	1.1	24.3%	1.5
2	2	Oregon	76.8	+14.0	9-1	12	1	11.6	1.4	65.6%	1.5
5	3	Alabama	55.0	+10.9	9-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	31.7%	3
4	4	TCU	46.1	-0.8	9-1	11	1	10.8	1.2	79.4%	5
3	5	Mississippi St	35.2	-17.5	9-1	10	2	10.3	1.7	8.3%	4
6	6	Baylor	34.6	+1.3	8-1	11	1	10.8	1.2	74.9%	6
7	7	Ohio State	22.8	-3.2	9-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	37.1%	7
8	8	Marshall	11.6	-1.4	10-0	13	0	12.5	0.5	55.5%	21
17	9	Georgia	5.5	+4.1	8-2	10	2	9.9	2.1	47.0%	10.5
12	10	Michigan St	4.8	-0.2	8-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	39.4%	10.5
13	11	Mississippi	4.3	+1.2	8-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	18.9%	8
9	12	Duke	3.5	-9.5	8-2	10	2	9.8	2.2	38.6%	25.5
21	13	UCLA	3.1	+2.2	8-2	10	2	9.3	2.7	11.9%	9
19	14	Wisconsin	3.1	+1.9	8-2	10	2	9.7	2.3	33.1%	15
14	15	Colorado St	1.8	-0.8	9-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	40.2%	24
18	16	Kansas St	1.5	+0.2	7-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	11.5%	12
11	17	Nebraska	1.4	-4.2	8-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	15.3%	23
10	18	Arizona St	0.8	-10.5	8-2	9	3	9.3	2.7	6.8%	14
22	19	Arizona	0.6	+0.3	8-2	9	3	9.0	3.0	4.6%	13
23	20	Georgia Tech	0.6	+0.4	9-2	9	3	9.1	2.9	6.4%	16
24	21	Missouri	0.2	+0.2	8-2	8	4	8.8	3.2	1.8%	19
15	22	Auburn	0.0	-2.4	7-3	8	4	8.3	3.7	31.0%	17
--	23	Utah	0.0	0.0	7-3	9	3	8.4	3.6	10.0%	18
--	24	Southern Cal	0.0	0.0	7-3	8	4	8.1	3.9	7.6%	20
--	25	Oklahoma	0.0	0.0	7-3	9	3	8.9	3.1	93.1%	22

Dropped out: #16 Clemson, #20 Notre Dame, #25 Minnesota

Mississippi State won't fall far from the #1 spot in the Committee's rankings, probably landing at #4 ahead of TCU; they have a loss to 1-loss Alabama while TCU has a loss to 1-loss Baylor, and both were very close. And then they have all those wins, which TCU lacks, right? Well, they did, but now those wins don't look so great. At the time they beat LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn, all were undefeated and in the top 10. Now they are 7-4, 7-4, and 7-3, and only Auburn is still in the top 25. TCU has two top 25 wins (Kansas State and Oklahoma). This will be an interesting placement. The Bulldogs' still have to face Ole Miss on the road, but if they win that and Alabama goes to the SEC title game, they'll be 11-1, same as TCU—and neither will have a conference championship. Who gets in then?

Maybe it's Baylor, since an 11-1 Baylor would be the Big Twelve champion. They'd have three top 25 wins by that point, better than both TCU and Mississippi State. The Bears increase their odds very slightly in the off week, mostly due to Arizona State losing which gets rid of another team that essentially controlled their destiny in staying ahead of Baylor.

Ohio State remains at #7, their odds dipping slightly despite knocking off Minnesota. The Buckeyes only beat the Gophers by 7 points (we picked the exact margin of victory, *past self on back, 2nd time*), and more importantly, Wisconsin elevated themselves with their win over Nebraska, making Ohio State's path to 12-1 tougher. It also took away a potential win over an 11-1 Cornhusker team. Now they face a Wisconsin team that already lost to LSU, an SEC West also-ran. At least Virginia Tech beat Duke, which evened the Hokies' record at 5-5, so OSU doesn't have a loss to a losing team any more.

Marshall will probably debut in the Committee rankings this week, but even as they go 10-0 with a solid win over Rice (they won 42-14; for comparison, Notre Dame won 48-17 and Texas A&M 38-10) their odds drop slightly as the Committee rankings become paramount. There are still too many 1-loss Power Five teams, and the Committee is putting 2- and even 3-loss teams ahead of the Herd. They should still be in good shape for the New Years' Day bowl reserved for Group of Five conference champs, but we'll know more on Tuesday. Colorado State is another potential New Year's Day bowl choice and they should come in at #24 this Tuesday, but they'd have to win the Mountain West and it's looking less likely that they'll make the title game; they slip to #15, down from 2.6% to 1.8%.

Now the changes start. Georgia demolished Auburn and jumps 8 spots to #9. The Bulldogs have a real chance to win the SEC title game—if they can get there. They need Missouri to lose, which is pretty likely since the Tigers play both Tennessee and Arkansas. Missouri moves up to #21 after beating Texas A&M but the road ahead is tough and that loss to Indiana might keep them out even as SEC champs!

Michigan State and Mississippi slide up as Duke falls after losing to Virginia Tech. The Spartans' chance to make the Big Ten title game are very low, and their Playoff odds dropped a bit; meanwhile Mississippi can still make the SEC title game if they beat Mississippi State and Auburn beats Alabama. Duke goes from 13% odds to 3.5% odds but only falls from #9 to #12 since the numbers are so sparse outside the top 10. Although it's about 50/50 they fall out of the Committee top 25 this week, Blue Devils still should get to the ACC title game (they have UNC and Wake Forest left, and hold the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech) and face Florida State. A win their would make them among the top 2-loss teams, but lots of 1-loss teams have to clear out first.

UCLA made a huge jump from #21 to #13, but it's not hard to move around in the lower ranks; the Bruins' odds only increased 2.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The genesis of the move was the fact that they now control their destiny in the Pac-12 South: they have yet to play USC and hold wins over Arizona State and Arizona. Their low odds of beating Oregon in a rematch—and the low odds of getting in with 2 losses—keep their Playoff Odds correspondingly low. Arizona State falls from #10 to #18 as a result of their loss to Oregon State (an upset we predicted, *pats self on back, 3rd time*) while Arizona rises to #19. Utah and USC also re-enter the rankings at #23 and #24; both can still win the South and therefore have a shot at winning the Pac-12, but the Playoff (and therefore the Rose Bowl) is out of reach.

Wisconsin gave themselves a shot in the arm by beating Nebraska 59-24 but like most 2-loss teams it's probably too little too late. They rise to #14 (3.1% odds) while the Cornhuskers fall to #17. Nebraska had a real chance as a 1-loss team but that's gone for all intents and purposes. Kansas State moves up to #16 but has the 2-loss problem, too, and in the Big Twelve it's worse. Their loss to Auburn isn't as "good" as it was a few weeks ago, either, as the Tigers lost for the 2nd straight week and fall to #22, their odds placed at exactly 0.0% with three losses.

Oklahoma moves back in at #25; the Sooners have three losses and no Playoff chance, but the top 25 will be used for bowl placements so being in it is better than being out. Speaking of being out, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Minnesota all dropped out after receiving their 3rd losses. Clemson was in decent position for the Orange Bowl if they won out, and Notre Dame would have had a good bowl game as a 2-loss team, also. Minnesota was nearly certain to lose somewhere with Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin remaining, so even last week at 7-2 their Playoff Odds were already essentially 0%.

 

Mid-day report, week 12: Gordon nearing 300 yards (update: surpasses 400), TCU in a scare

Some interesting happenings in week 12, about half way through the college football day (which lasts well past midnight due to west coast games):

• Midway through the 3rd quarter against Nebraska, Melvin Gordon has 295 rushing yards. Ameer Abdullah has just 61. Looks like the issue of who is the Big Ten's best back is settled. Wisconsin leads 31-17 UPDATE: Gordon has 369 yards with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.
  UPDATE: He's broken the all-time NCAA Division I-A record, previously held by LaDainian Tomlinson; he has 408 yards, at the end of the 3rd quarter.
  
  
• At the start of the 4th quarter, TCU leads Kansas 31-27. We expected it might be a tight game with TCU underestimating the Jayhawks.
  
  
• Clemson got Deshaun Watson back at QB but he was hurt again in the 1st quarter; still in the red zone, Cliff Stoudt immediately threw a pick six and Clemson lost to Georgia Tech 28-6

 

 

 

Week 12 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: Mississippi State vs. Alabama and the rest

Week 12 Preview: All rankings are from our College Football Playoff odds chart.

Game of the Week: Mississippi State at Alabama has the power to either clear up or further complicate the SEC

• #3 Mississippi State (9-0) at #5 Alabama (8-1) 3:30 ET CBS
  Line/spread: Alabama by 10
  Strength power rating projection: Alabama 32-22
  Yardage+special teams forecast: Alabama 46-26
  Analysis: Alabama is probably a better team than Mississippi State, by quite a bit actually. But they were quite a bit better than LSU, and that was a very close game. The road is where they've had their problems, though—losing to Ole Miss, beating Arkansas by 1, overtime vs. LSU. At home they beat Texas A&M 59-0. I was all set to pick Mississippi State, but it's hard to go against the best team in the country when they're playing at home.
  Final Prediction: Alabama 39, Mississippi State 24

More undefeated teams in action: Florida State and Marshall are both 9-0 (remember Marshall?) They each play a 6-3 team.

• #1 Florida State (9-0) at Miami FL (6-3)
  Line/spread: FSU by 2.5
  Strength power rating projection: FSU 30-29
  Yardage+special teams forecast: Miami 34-24
  Analysis: Here's another pesky game for the Seminoles. They've faced Clemson, Notre Dame, and Louisville—all teams that are borderline top 25 quality—and barely passed each test. FSU probably can't afford a loss now that they've dropped to #3 in the Committee rankings despite being 9-0, and now they face an unexpected hurdle in Miami. Lately Duke Johnson has been giving the 'Canes the "identity" of a power running team. Florida State's rush defense has been the better part of their defense, however, and Florida State's identity is "the team that barely escapes with a win" in games against the "others receiving votes" crowd.
  Final Prediction: Florida State 31, Miami 30
  
  
  
• Rice (6-3) at #8 Marshall (9-0) 2:30 ET
  Line/spread: Marshall by 21.5
  Strength power rating projection: Marshall 44-23
  Yardage+special teams forecast: Marshall 42-24
  Analysis: Marshall is the forgotten undefeated team, so forgotten that the Committee can't be bothered to put the Herd in their top 25. I realize strength of schedule is important and Marshall doesn't have it, but they really are one of the 25 best teams in the country. There's not much difference between how they've played and how FSU has played, and it's not unreasonable that Marshall would be undefeated against FSU's slate (Mississippi State's, very doubtful). In any case, we look for Marshall to at least get on the nation's mental map before they possibly get upset in the C-USA final.
  Final Prediction: Marshall 42, Rice 24

Big Ten showdowns: All four of the teams that have any Playoff chance play in these two games. That's a bit of a technicality, because Wisconsin and Minnesota combined have about a 1.2% chance according to our odds. If the division leaders lose, it comes close to eliminating the Big Ten from the 4-team playoff.

• #7 Ohio State (8-1) at #25 Minnesota (7-2) 12:00 ET ESPNU
  Line/spread: Ohio State by 13.5
  Strength power rating projection: Ohio State 39-26
  Yardage+special teams forecast: Ohio State 30-17
  Analysis: Which teams will show up? The Ohio State that beat Michigan State 49-37, and the Minnesota that kicked Iowa's ass 51-14? Or the Buckeyes that needed two overtimes to beat Penn State and the Gophers that lost to Illinois? The average performances greatly favor Ohio State, of course, but the Gophers know this is their last stand—they go on the road against Nebraska and Wisconsin to end the season—and they'll play their hearts out. We figure the "good" Gophers can make it a game.
  Final Prediction: Ohio State 27, Minnesota 20
  
  
  
• #11 Nebraska (8-1) at #19 Wisconsin (7-2) 3:30 ET ABC
  Line/spread: Wisconsin by 6.5
  Strength power rating projection: Wisconsin 30-27
  Yardage+special teams forecast: Wisconsin 28-24
  Analysis: These are the best running teams in the conference, with the Badgers #3 in the nation in adjusted yardage and the Cornhuskers 7th. They're also both in the top 25 in rush defense. But Ameer Abdullah probably won't be 100%, and that gives Wisconsin the edge—that, and playing at home. The yardage estimate was a 9-point edge for the Badgers before adjusting for Nebraska's strong special teams play, and ends up almost exactly matching the Strength power ratings's estimate.
  Final Prediction: Wisconsin 28, Nebraska 24

Eliminators: Two more teams, at least, will be eliminated, bringing the total down to 23 or fewer.

• #16 Clemson (7-2) at #23 Georgia Tech (8-2) 12:00 ET ESPN
  Line/spread: Clemson by 2.5
  Strength power rating projection: Clemson 30-29
  Yardage+special teams forecast: tie 27-27
  Analysis: How many of these "eliminator" games has Clemson been involved in since they got their 2nd loss? Ok, looking back it's just one (Boston College) but they gave North Carolina, NC State, and Louisville their 2nd loss. Now they aim to give Georgia Tech their 3rd loss, and it looks close. It's a passing vs. rushing dual, and since Clemson's rush defense is good and Tech's pass defense is terrible you'd think the yardage numbers would fall the Tigers' way easily...but that's not the case. Mainly because the Yellow Jackets are so productive running the ball they're a test even for Clemson's #6 ground defense, and of course it's the triple option, not a standard attack. But Tech's pass defense is woeful and DeShaun Watson is back, so Clemson is our clear pick.
  Final Prediction: Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 24
  
  
  
• #15 Auburn (7-2) at #17 Georgia (7-2) 7:15 ET ESPN
  Line/spread: Georgia by 2.5
  Strength power rating projection: Auburn 38-37
  Yardage+special teams forecast: Auburn 37-35
  Analysis: Yet another close game. I suppose we should speculate on how Auburn will respond to last week's heartbreak loss, but the main thing we see is that Auburn hasn't won convincingly since they blew out LSU over a month ago. Since then they've lost to Mississippi State 38-23, beat South Carolina by 7, beat Ole Miss by 4, and lost to the Aggies. The Ole Miss win was a great performance but the others were sub-par. And how revved up with Todd Gurley be this weekend? Maybe Auburn's woes continue another week...
  Final Prediction: Georgia 42, Auburn 41

Trap games: These just feel like upsets in the making, against teams with losing records. Since we really didn't pick any upsets above, here are a few:

• LSU (7-3) at Arkansas (4-5) - Is anyone expecting Arkansas to win this game? Apparently so as the line is very tight. LSU has been involved in a lot of low-scoring games, and that will keep the Razorbacks in it. The Tigers are also without running back Kenny Hilliard. Arkansas has been close several times but they should finally bag one.
• #10 Arizona State (8-1) at Oregon State (4-5) - ASU is flying a bit too high it seems, at #6 in the Committee rankings. Are they ready to fall back to earth? It wouldn't seem Oregon State is a likely candidate but that's what they're called upsets.

Maybe trap games? These look like close calls...but they could be blowouts for the favorites. We present the case for the underdogs being surprisingly competitive.

• #12 Michigan State (7-2) at Maryland (6-3) - Michigan State, depressed from losing to Ohio State, goes into Maryland and underestimates the Terps, who clobber a Spartan team that is just going through the motions. At least, that's the narrative for a Maryland win. The Spartans could have a big rebound, too.
• #4 TCU (8-1) at Kansas (3-6) - Kansas is playing a lot better, but there's no way TCU will take them nearly as seriously as they took Kansas State. That's the story for a narrow TCU escape. On the other hand, the Frogs know they need style points and didn't hesitate to get them against Texas Tech.

 

Heisman update, post-week 11: Melvin Gordon vs. Ameer Abdullah, Dak Prescott vs. Amari Cooper

Head-to-head matches between Heisman candidates rarely have a lasting effect on the race, providing little more than fodder for commentary. In the rare case when the players actually face off against each other—think Ndamukong Suh vs. Colt McCoy—it really looks like one player personally "defeated" the other. But those cases are rare. Usually, the best we can expect is a good comparison between two similar players and a "tiebreaker" of sorts.

That's what we might get when Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin face Ameer Abdullah and Nebraska. The two are the premier running backs in the Big Ten and the nation, with Gordon leading and Abdullah 6th due to his 1-yard game vs. Purdue. Abdullah is back from that injury, but there's a question of how healthy he is. Gordon just had another 200 yard game (against Purdue) and holds at #3 on our list, while Abdullah drops to #6 on an idle week. Saturday's game could re-establish Abdullah or propel Gordon into real contention.

Just above Gordon, our #2 candidate, Dak Prescott, is going into one of his biggest games of the year, at Alabama. There he'll face #5 Amari Cooper, if "face" is the correct term for a quarterback on one team playing against a receiver on another. Here, obviously, there's less direct comparison, and the game is much more significant for Prescott than for Cooper. Quarterbacks take the blame for losses, while running backs and receivers can still get a boost from a losing game if they're responsible for keeping their team in it. And if they win, so much the better. In last week's overtime win at LSU, you could say that Cooper made the difference in a close game; without his 83 receiving yards and touchdown catch, would 'Bama have lost the game?

1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (9-1) beat Utah 51-27
2. Dak Prescott, QB Miss. State (9-0) beat UT-Martin 45-16
3. Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (7-2) beat Purdue 34-16
4. Jameis Winston, QB FSU (9-0) beat Virginia 34-20
5. [up 1] Amari Cooper, WR Alabama (8-1) beat LSU 20-13 OT
6. [dn 1] Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska (8-1) idle
7. [up 1] Trevone Boykin, QB TCU (8-1) beat Kansas State 41-20
8. [dn 1] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (8-1) beat Oklahoma 48-14
9. [up 2] Kevin White, WR West Virginia (6-4) LOST to Texas 33-16
10. [new] JT Barrett, QB Ohio State (8-1) beat Michigan St 49-37
11. [dn 2] Todd Gurley, RB Georgia (7-2) beat Kentucky 63-31 (DNP)
12. [dn 2] Everett Golson, QB Notre Dame (7-2) LOST to ASU 55-31
13. [dn 1] Kenny Hill, QB Texas A&M (7-3) beat Auburn 41-38 (DNP)

Solid leader Marcus Mariota is idle this week after engineering the win over Utah with a 4-TD performance, but the Florida State-Miami game offers another head-to-head matchup: Jameis Winston vs. Duke Johnson. Winston, though #4 and on an undefeated team, is in a holding pattern due to his behavior and his interceptions, either of which might keep him out of New York. Duke Johnson is on the periphery of the Heisman race and a good game in an upset win could put the Miami back firmly in the race as a late candidate—and late candidates often do very well.

#7 Trevone Boykin of TCU had the nation's best Heisman moment last week. Against Kansas State Boykin threw for one touchdown and ran for three more, including a head-over-heels highlight reel special at the goal line. The competition gets weaker for the Horned Frogs in the last few weeks so he'll need more of that to keep his name in the spotlight. He moves up one spot this week, pushing Bryce Petty down to #8 despite Baylor's big win over Oklahoma. Petty did well but his receiver, Corey Coleman, was the star of the show. Petty won the "head-to-head" meeting against Boykin and their passing stats are almost identical. But Boykin has over 500 yards on the ground, and he had "that touchdown" last week.

Kevin White of West Virginia is up a couple spots despite the Mountaineers' loss to Texas as he had 16 catches, and more importantly the bottom of the list is extremely weak, riddle with ex-candidates. Todd Gurley missed his 4th game—he's back this week against Auburn—while Everett Goldon imploded against Arizona State (4 interceptions and a fumble) just after we'd added him to the list. Then there's Kenny Hill, still suspended last week as his team upset Auburn.

Into the mix this week is JT Barrett, otherwise known as Braxton Miller's replacement. Like Kenny Guyton before him he has people questioning who should be the starter when Miller comes back. Even Urban Meyer said that the job is up for grabs in 2015. Barrett led the Buckeyes in their big win over Michigan State and comes in at #10.

Playoff Odds, week 11: Pac-12, Big Twelve helped; Big Ten, SEC hurt

The Pac-12 and the Big Twelve came out of the weekend in better shape in the aggregate, though for the latter conference there is a big controversy brewing. The Big Ten and SEC were hurt by upsets that knocked some of their tops teams down to 2-loss status.

First, the winners. Arizona State's defeat of Notre Dame made the Sun Devils a bona fide alternative to Oregon should the Ducks lose along the way. The 55-31 win almost made up for ASU's earlier 62-27 loss to UCLA, though it would help if Oregon is 11-1 going into the Pac-12 title game; if ASU can finish 12-1 with wins over Notre Dame and Oregon they will have a strong argument for Playoff inclusion.

The Big Twelve is in stronger position for a Playoff bid after Saturday, as TCU handled Kansas State easily, 41-20, and more importantly, Baylor beat Oklahoma (soundly, 48-14). Now the conference has two possibilities to pick from and a controversy brewing as a) there is no conference championship game, b) Baylor already beat TCU, and c) TCU is ranked ahead in last week's Committee ranking and probably will remain ahead this Tuesday. Still, the conference as a whole was helped, even if the Committee would have had it a lot better with a TCU loss; that way, the regular-season-ending Baylor-Kansas State game could have been a Playoff entry game.

The Big Ten was a partial loser, however. Michigan State was the conference's best hope and they were beaten soundly by Ohio State. The Spartans already had the "Oregon problem" but they could have slipped in along with the Ducks, or in place of them if Oregon lost again. Ohio State, however, has a much bigger "Virginia Tech problem" as the Hokies are 4-5 and beat the Buckeyes in Columbus; if OSU wins the Big Ten and there are an abundance of 1-loss teams they could easily be the odd man out. On the other hand, the Ohio State "brand" name is probably worth something, given that the Committee has already shown some name bias, and if they want the Buckeyes in they can rationalize the loss as "early in the season."

The SEC took a slight hit and it was almost worse. Auburn suffered their 2nd loss which cuts the number of 1-loss or better SEC teams to two, and Alabama nearly lost that distinction, too. The SEC's bid to get two teams in the Playoff is getting complicated; though they're probably the only conference where a 2-loss team will have a chance, that won't happen if there are enough viable 1-loss teams.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds charts for 11/9/2014 (post-week 11)

Last week	11/9 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/9 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFP 11/11 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	70.2	-8.3	9-0	11	1	10.9	1.1	12.3%	2
3	2	Oregon	62.8	+15.0	9-1	12	1	11.6	1.4	66.1%	3
2	3	Mississippi St	52.7	-0.2	9-0	10	2	10.5	1.5	2.2%	1
4	4	TCU	46.9	+4.7	8-1	11	1	10.9	1.1	86.2%	5
6	5	Alabama	44.1	+20.3	8-1	11	1	10.4	1.6	27.1%	4
9	6	Baylor	33.3	+22.4	8-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	73.0%	7
10	7	Ohio State	26.0	+15.8	8-1	11	1	10.7	1.3	41.3%	8
8	8	Marshall	13.0	+0.4	9-0	12	0	11.7	0.3	50.9%	--
13	9	Duke	13.0	+4.9	8-1	11	1	10.5	1.5	26.5%	19
19	10	Arizona St	11.3	+8.9	8-1	10	2	10.1	1.9	7.7%	6
16	11	Nebraska	5.6	+0.4	8-1	10	2	9.9	2.1	8.4%	11
7	12	Michigan St	5.0	-18.4	7-2	10	2	9.6	2.4	36.1%	13
15	13	Mississippi	3.1	-3.3	8-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	25.0%	10
18	14	Colorado St	2.6	+0.1	9-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	41.3%	24
5	15	Auburn	2.4	-37.5	7-2	8	4	8.9	3.1	8.6%	9
17	16	Clemson	1.5	-3.2	7-2	9	3	9.2	2.8	20.8%	18
21	17	Georgia	1.4	+0.7	7-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	19.5%	16
12	18	Kansas St	1.3	-6.8	7-2	9	3	8.8	3.2	13.2%	12
20	19	Wisconsin	1.2	+0.2	7-2	10	2	9.2	2.8	16.5%	21
11	20	Notre Dame	1.1	-8.7	7-2	9	3	8.8	3.2	16.5%	17
22	21	UCLA	0.9	+0.4	8-2	10	2	9.3	2.7	11.7%	14
24	22	Arizona	0.3	0.0	7-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	3.7%	15
--	23	Georgia Tech	0.2	+0.2	8-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	3.4%	20
--	24	Missouri	< 0.1	0.0	7-2	7	5	8.1	3.9	0.5%	--
--	25	Minnesota	< 0.1	0.0	7-2	7	5	7.6	4.4	0.2%	--

Dropped out: #14 Oklahoma, #23 LSU, #25 Utah

Florida State won another lackluster game, defeating Virginia 34-20, and they remain the most likely team to get a bid even as the Miami game looks dicey. We have to assume they'll make it out of there alive, though. Their odds dip to 70% but they keep the "top seed."

Oregon pushes past Mississippi State as their path gets clearer: they've clinched the North berth in the Pac-12 title game and are likely to finish 12-1, and they'll be firmly entrenched in the Committee's top 4 come Tuesday.

Mississippi State remained undefeated but have two tough games left against Alabama and Mississippi. With Alabama likely the Committee's #4 team come Tuesday, the Bulldogs can't afford a loss to the Tide if they want to win the SEC West. They can, however, get away with losing to rival Mississippi and with an SEC title at 12-1 would be assured a bid. The path to a 2-bid SEC probably has to be: Alabama beats Mississippi State, and both 1-loss teams make it.

That became questionable due to TCU's win over Kansas State, coupled with Baylor's win over Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs will probably stay #5 on Tuesday—though they might jump Alabama, who needed overtime to beat LSU—and they remain our #4 most likely bid at just under 50%. Baylor will close some of the gap with the Committee, probably to #7, and they move up to #6 on our Odds Chart with a solid 1 in 3 chance. TCU's schedule from here is easy, hence the 86% chance to win out, and Baylor is likely to finish 11-1 as well though they play Kansas State on December 6. The Committee will have to decide how it wants to weigh Baylor's 61-58 home head-to-head win, but it's pretty certain one team or the other will make it if both are 11-1.

Ohio State replaced Michigan State, essentially, in the rankings at #7. A Spartan win would have moved Michigan State into the next level, but Ohio State is about where MSU was last week. Even if they win out and beat an 11-1 Nebraska, they'll need help. Nebraska might actually be the more viable of the two at 12-1, but they too would need several 1-loss teams to clear out (and they have to play Wisconsin yet).

Marshall hangs out at #8 and we still don't think they'll get recognition from the Committee on Tuesday, though they might come in at #24 or #25. There's been carnage but not enough for the Thundering Herd to look like an alternative given the Committee's pronouncements so far. So, too, for 9-1 Colorado State, who moves up to #14 with just a 2.6% chance as other teams' odds slide toward oblivion. Odds for losing teams are falling so fast that Clemson, who drops from 4.7% to 1.5%, actually moves up a spot at #16.

Duke and Arizona State are the "alternate" teams in the ACC and Pac-12, and will have to upset the big favorites that sit at #1 and #2 in our Odds Chart this week. Duke is at #9 and ASU #10; the Committee will probably rank them #19 and #6 this Tuesday, but Duke's chance to win out and upset FSU are far greater than Arizona State's chance to win out and upset Oregon. Note that neither is guaranteed a spot under these scenarios, of course. ASU's profile is better right now but we have them losing to Arizona on the road, while Duke should go 11-1 (we'll see).

Three-time losers Oklahoma, LSU, and Utah drop off the chart, leaving us with 25 teams with one or two losses, and no one else to consider. Georgia Tech re-enters as they look like the best team in the ACC Coastal (they trail Duke) while Missouri and Minnesota fill in the last spots. Both are 7-2 currently but are underdogs in their last three games (the Tigers to Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Arkansas, the Gophers to Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin), while still controlling their destiny to win the SEC and Big Ten. Both teams' odds barely register above absolute zero, but we need 25 teams so here there are. There is still hope!

FCS: Northern Iowa upsets North Dakota State 23-3; NAIA: Carroll, Southern Oregon rematch needed

North Dakota State, who has won three Division I-AA (FCS) titles in a row and won 33 straight games, fell to Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls on Saturday. It wasn't even close as the Panthers beat the Bison 23-3.

Despite the loss, North Dakota State (9-1) holds on to the top spot in our FCS Power Rating, one spot ahead of Illinois State (8-1). Northern Iowa (6-4) is third but now holds a win over the top two teams.

  #  Team                        rec   Overall      Strength     Success
  1. North Dakota St             9-1   41.92 [  1]  33.42 [  1]   8.49 [  3]
  2. Illinois St                 8-1   41.28 [  2]  32.08 [  3]   9.20 [  2]
  3. Northern Iowa               6-4   38.71 [  3]  33.04 [  2]   5.66 [  6]
  4. Jacksonville St             8-1   33.05 [  4]  27.56 [  5]   5.49 [  7]
  5. Chattanooga                 7-3   30.58 [  5]  28.30 [  4]   2.28 [ 24]
  6. Coastal Carolina           10-0   30.47 [  6]  19.30 [ 17]  11.17 [  1]
  7. Indiana St                  6-4   29.51 [  7]  25.68 [  6]   3.83 [ 13]
  8. New Hampshire               8-1   29.42 [  8]  22.43 [ 10]   6.99 [  5]
  9. South Dakota St             6-4   28.77 [  9]  25.09 [  7]   3.67 [ 15]
 10. SE Louisiana                7-2   27.93 [ 10]  24.95 [  8]   2.97 [ 19]

The Panthers have two losses to FCS teams—at Iowa 31-23 and at Hawaii 27-24. Their other losses are to #7 Indiana State (20-19) and #9 South Dakota State (31-28). So a few touchdowns and field goals here and there and UNI would be undefeated with two wins over I-A programs. And in their last two games they've beaten #2 Illinois State (42-28) and #1 North Dakota State. Come I-AA Playoff time the Panthers have to be considered a top threat.

The Bisons' troubles are on offense, where they only rank marginally in the top 25:

FCS Strength rankings 11/8/2014:
  #  Team                        rec  rating   offense       defense
  1. North Dakota St             9-1   33.42   38.94 [ 22]    5.51 [  1]
  2. Northern Iowa               6-4   33.04   42.13 [  6]    9.08 [  2]
  3. Illinois St                 8-1   32.08   44.65 [  3]   12.57 [  5]
  4. Chattanooga                 7-3   28.30   41.40 [  9]   13.10 [  6]
  5. Jacksonville St             8-1   27.56   39.30 [ 18]   11.73 [  3]

The Panthers and Redbirds are much more balanced this year than the Bison, who do easily have the #1 defense in the country. The Chattanooga Mocs are also top 10 in both departments.

In the FCS Coaches' poll from last week, UNI is only #20 due to their poor record, and Illinois State is just #12 (with Chattanooga #11). Their #2 team, Coastal Carolina (10-0) is likely to take over as the #1 team. The Chanticleers rank #5 in our Overall power rating due to ranking just #17 in Strength. They are, however, #1 in Success:

  #  Team                        rec   Overall      Strength     Success
  1. Coastal Carolina           10-0   30.47 [  6]  19.30 [ 17]  11.17 [  1]
  2. Illinois St                 8-1   41.28 [  2]  32.08 [  3]   9.20 [  2]
  3. North Dakota St             9-1   41.92 [  1]  33.42 [  1]   8.49 [  3]
  4. Harvard                     8-0   21.68 [ 18]  14.60 [ 25]   7.08 [  4]
  5. New Hampshire               8-1   29.42 [  8]  22.43 [ 10]   6.99 [  5]
  6. Northern Iowa               6-4   38.71 [  3]  33.04 [  2]   5.66 [  6]

The Success ratings more closely match how pollsters vote, being based only on wins and losses not margin of victory. Undefeated Harvard is only #25 in Strength so the coaches only have them at #17, but it's surprising that Illinois State isn't higher than #12 with the coaches as they've backed up their strong record with convincing wins.

In any case, it should be an interesting FCS Playoff this year as North Dakota State looks vulnerable for the first time in quite a while. Since they still rank #1 in Strength we'd consider them the favorites, but Northern Iowa could be peaking at the right time.

NAIA: Morningside undefeated, but true championship game should be Carroll-Southern Oregon rubber match

  #  Team                        rec   Overall      Strength     Success
  1. Carroll MT                  8-1   50.95 [  1]  41.90 [  1]   9.04 [  3]
  2. Southern Oregon             9-1   47.97 [  2]  38.71 [  2]   9.25 [  2]
  3. Morningside                 9-0   46.52 [  3]  35.19 [  4]  11.32 [  1]
  4. Lindsey Wilson              8-2   39.38 [  4]  35.27 [  3]   4.11 [ 13]
  5. Georgetown KY               8-1   39.21 [  5]  32.73 [  5]   6.48 [  6]

Another Iowa team, Morningside, is a unanimous #1 in the current NAIA polls, but our rankings show Carroll (MT) and Southern Oregon both ahead of the Mustangs. It's understandable since they're the only undefeated NAIA team, and they do rank #1 in Success, but a closer look shows either Carroll or Southern Oregon can be defended as a perfectly logical #1 pick.

Carroll's only loss this year is to Southern Oregon, and Southern Oregon's only loss is to Carroll. The Raiders beat the Fighting Saints 38-35 at home, then Carroll returned the favor on their home field 42-40 just over a month later.

Neither win was clear-cut, both being within the traditional home field advantage leeway. And apart from those games, both teams have been dominant and rank ahead of Morningside in Strength. Carroll is 2nd in last week's NAIA poll, with Southern Oregon tied for 5th. Given these teams clashes this season, one can only hope they end up on opposite sides of the Playoff brackets so the the proper NAIA championship game might be a rubber match on a neutral field between the two teams.

Heisman update post-week 10: Mariota's to lose—just like last year

A year ago, Marcus Mariota was in great position to win the Heisman Trophy. In fact, had his team won out the award would have been his. He had a 20:0 TD:int ratio and helmed the #2 team in the nation. This year, he's again in the lead according to most prognisticators, has a stellar 26:2 ratio, his team is #4 in the polls, and the award is basically his if he can help his team win out.

A year ago, a loss to Stanford—and a later, worse loss to Arizona—derailed his chances. Amazingly, he didn't finish among the top ten in voting. What will happen this year?

Last year his biggest threats were Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston. Manziel's team would lose several games late in the season, so he wasn't a serious threat to win. And Winston got his chance to win the award only because Mariota and Oregon stumbled. This year his biggest competitor is Dak Prescott of undefeated Mississippi State. Prescott's passing stats (61%, 17:6 ratio) aren't great, but he adds 725 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and the Bulldogs are #1. They just got by Arkansas last week.

There isn't a solid #3, as Jameis Winston's performance is split between first half sloppiness and 2nd half heroics. His off-field conduct has pretty much insured that he won't win the award again, and hurts his chances of getting back to New York—unless there's no one else to fill the candidates' seats. After a 3-interception performance in the Louisville comeback he drops to #4, while Melvin Gordon's consistent production (128 yards vs. Rutgers) moves him up to #3.

Mariota had four touchdowns in beating Stanford, the team that first derailed his hopes last year, and he holds the #1 spot.

Week 10: Can Mariota finish strong this season?

1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (8-1) beat Stanford 45-16
2. Dak Prescott, QB Miss. State (8-0) beat Arkansas 17-10
3. [up 2] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (6-2) beat Rutgers 37-0
4. [dn 1] Jameis Winston, QB FSU (8-0) beat Louisville 42-31
5. [dn 1] Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska (7-1) beat Purdue 35-14
6. [up 1] Amari Cooper, WR Alabama (7-1) idle this week
7. [up 1] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (7-1) beat Kansas 60-14
8. [up 1] Trevone Boykin, QB TCU (7-1) beat West Virginia 31-30
9. [dn 3] Todd Gurley, RB Georgia (6-2) lost to Florida 38-20 (did not play)
10. [new] Everett Golson, QB Notre Dame (7-1) beat Navy 49-39
11. [dn 1] Kevin White, WR West Virginia (6-3) lost to TCU 31-30
12. [dn 1] Kenny Hill, QB Texas A&M (6-3) beat UL-Monroe 21-16 (did not play)

Gordon takes the top running back spot almost by default. Ameer Abdullah was unjured and managed just 1 yard against Purdue; he has the coming weekend off and might be back for the showdown with Gordon and Wisconsin. Todd Gurley missed his third game for Georgia—one more to go—and the Bulldogs lost big. He drops three more spots to #9 and has too much ground to recover in the 3 or 4 games he'll have left before the vote.

Three minor candidates, Amari Cooper, Bryce Petty, and Trevone Boykin, move up a bit with Gurley's drop. Cooper's Alabama was idle, while Petty was good against weak Kansas and Boykin wasn't great again a strong West Virginia.

But Boykin's team got the win, which is more than the Mountaineers' Kevin White can say. Just two weeks after having the stats of a real contender, White has had two very sub-par games including just 28 receiving yards against TCU. He slips to #11.

Still, that's not as bad as Kenny Hill. Not only was he benched, he's been suspended for two games. Hill will be the first player cut in a couple of weeks when we start culling.

For now though, new players are still joining the fray. Notre Dame's Everett Golson finally warrants consideration after a consistently good season. Against Navy he accounted for 6 touchdowns, 3 passing and 3 running. Being from Notre Dame and facing a weak crop of contenders, he has every opportunity to make it to New York with strong performances against the likes of Arizona State and USC. And if Mariota and Oregon falter again, it's anyone's guess who will be on top. In the Heisman, the last few weeks as as important as the first 10 weeks combined.

Week 11 Preview, Odds, & Predictions: A Six-Pack of Playoff Precursors

In rough order of importance, the top games this Saturday.

There are three 1-loss vs. 1-loss games, and in each case it looks like a practical elimination game. If things get crazy then a 2-loss team has a chance, but all six of the teams here have drawbacks that would make it unlikely for them to be the top 2-loss team. The winners in these games don't necessarily get a big boost, either. So it's survive and maintain, or lose and fade away.

• #12 Kansas State (7-1) at #4 TCU (7-1) 7:30pm ET Fox
  Line/spread: TCU by 6
  Strength power rating projection: TCU 36-29
  Yardage breakdown forecast: TCU 35-24
  Analysis: Kansas State is #7 by the Committee's rankings and TCU #6, but the Wildcats have yet to face Baylor so their future path is tougher. But either team that loses is in trouble in the Playoff picture, even if they end up winning the conference. Without a conference championship game, the Big Twelve champ will be either 11-1, or 10-2; there won't be discrimination against a 1-loss champ, but a 2-loss champ won't look good vs. 11-2 teams. Plus, TCU gave up 61 in the Baylor loss, and K-State will be stuck behind Auburn. So a win Saturday is paramount for both teams.
  
  Kansas State's defense is good enough (#7 adjusted) to slow down TCU's #1 offense, so it doesn't look like a shootout. But playing at home, TCU has got to be the favorite. When we adjust our yardage forecast for special teams play (where the Wildcats excel) it roughly matches the 1-touchdown difference we get from the Strength power rating. Kansas State's defense is best against the run so TCU should have some success via the air and it should be enough.
  Final prediction: TCU 35, Kansas State 28
  
  
• #10 Ohio State (7-1) at #7 Michigan State (7-1) 8pm ET ABC
  Line/spread: Michigan State by 3.5
  Strength power rating projection: Michigan State 39-35
  Yardage breakdown forecast: Michigan State 27-24
  Analysis: Like TCU and Kansas State, these teams have drawbacks that would prevent them from breaking the top four as a 2-loss team. In fact, their chances as 1-loss teams are held back for the same reason. Ohio State's home loss to Virginia Tech is hard to excuse, and Michigan State is clearly in line behind Oregon. Another loss pretty much dooms either team, especially because it would be very hard to make the Big Ten conference championship game. The winner here is almost certain to play for the Big Ten title; the national title will take some help.
  
  Michigan State and Ohio State are very even on offense, ranking within one spot in adjusted total offense, rushing, and passing. On defense the Spartans have the edge, with the #1 rushing defense in the nation, but the Buckeyes' pass defense is better. The Spartans rank just 57th in pass defense per game, but that's because teams pass more against their tough rush D; they're 23rd in per-attempt pass defense. Scoring-wise, where it really matters, the teams are pretty even again, but the Spartans have a slightly better offense and defense (#7 and #28 to #9 and #34). Also, they're playing at home and they've played strong teams this year (Oregon and Nebraska, both 8-1) which Ohio State has not done.
  Final Prediction: Michigan State 35, Ohio State 24
  
  
• #11 Notre Dame (7-1) at #19 Arizona State (7-1) 3:30pm ET ABC
  Line/spread: Arizona State by 2.5
  Strength power rating projection: Notre Dame 33-31
  Yardage breakdown forecast: 34-34 tie
  Analysis: Though Arizona State made a big jump—to #9 on the Committee's top 25, one spot ahead of Notre Dame—that 35-point loss to UCLA won't go away. That they jumped Notre Dame—who lost to FSU on a last-second penalty—also reveals the Irish's lack of good wins. Either team that loses this game is clearly in trouble. The winner still has to win out, which for ASU means beating Arizona and Oregon, and for Notre Dame means beating Louisville and USC.
  
  Both of these teams have shown a lot of weakness for 7-1 teams, ASU in the UCLA loss and Notre Dame in many of their wins, including last week's 49-39 slog over Navy. But it's in the games against weaker foes that Notre Dame has looked bad; they've done well against strong ones. Arizona State is very lucky to not be 5-3 now, needing a hail Mary to beat USC and overtime to beat Utah last week. But they dispatched Stanford much more easily (26-10) than Notre Dame (17-14); some of that had to be due to the Cardinal being disappointed at their season in the later game against ASU. Notre Dame usually surprises with how well they play after a disappointing game.
  Final Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Arizona State 33

 Three games feature 1-loss teams vs. 2-loss teams. For the latter these are true elimination games, but the 1-loss teams face a near must-win situation too.

• #9 Baylor (7-1) at #14 Oklahoma (6-2) 12noon ET Fox Sports 1
  Line/spread: Oklahoma by 5
  Strength power rating projection: Oklahoma 44-35
  Yardage breakdown forecast: Baylor 41-35
  Analysis: Is there a team getting more screwed by the Committee than Baylor? Just one loss, and a win over TCU, yet TCU is riding high at #6 and Baylor is slumming at #12—only three spots higher than 2-loss Oklahoma. A lot of that is due to losing the very week the initial Committee rating came out; supposedly the Committee is a wise group of people not affected by recency of games, but they're human, too. A win in Norman might correct some of the weak-schedule perception that keeps the Bears down, but a loss dooms them like almost any Big Twelve team. Oklahoma lost two games relatively early so they have time to "recover" just like teams that lose early in the polls. But 3 losses and they're 100% dead.
  
  So who wins on Saturday? Our numbers favor Oklahoma, but they've self-destructed twice and nearly three times in a row (they beat Texas just 31-26). Are they really "back" because they beat Iowa State 59-14? Probably no more than Baylor is "back" for beating Kansas 60-14. Our Strength power rating takes Oklahoma by more than a touchdown (once home field advantage is considered) but the yardage projection favors Baylor even if we adjust for Oklahoma's better special teams. The teams' offenses are pretty close in scoring; Baylor is #1 in yardage but Oklahoma isn't far behind at #7. On defense the Sooners are much better (#9 to #47) in adjusted scoring given up, but Baylor actually looks better in adjusted yardage (#20 to #28). In the end, we look at last year's game, a 41-12 Bear win at Baylor. Have the teams changed enough that a change in venue gives the win to Oklahoma? It should be much closer but we'll pick another upset here.
  Final Prediction: Baylor 41, Oklahoma 38
  
  
• #3 Oregon (8-1) at #25 Utah (6-2) 10pm ET ESPN
  Line/spread: Oregon by 8
  Strength power rating projection: Oregon 34-26
  Yardage breakdown forecast: Oregon 35-28
  Analysis: Utah is clearly on its last leg in Playoff terms; we rank them 25th most likely to make the 4-team playoff, but their odds are about 0.2% due to having to beat Oregon (probably twice) as well as Stanford and Arizona, and that assumes they win the South division, and then there has to be room for a 2-loss team and even then Utah has to be #1 among the 2-loss teams. Oregon's path is a lot clearer: win out and they're in.
  
  Can Utah pull off the upset and in doing so, upset the Pac-12 picture? The interesting stats for both teams come in yardage terms, where Utah's offense is terrible and so is Oregon's defense. Utah scores at a mediocre clip (50th, adjusted) but gains very few yards (89th, adjusted). Oregon's scoring defense jumps to 30th when adjusted but by yardage they're 84th. Oregon depends on a great turnover margin (#4 in nation) to limit points given up, while Utah depends on great special teams play (#1 in ESPN's FPI) to make up for their anemic offense. So the game should see Oregon gaining a lot of yards, giving up a lot of yards, and Utah getting a lot of return yards. Oregon probably won't take the ball away from Utah often because the Utes are good at keeping the ball. The big question is whether the teams' last game carries over, as Oregon rolled Stanford while Utah lost a heartbreaker in overtime. It could mean an Oregon blowout, or it could mean the Ducks take the game lightly. Since every Utah Pac-12 game has been last-minute close (1 point, 2 points, 3 points, overtime, double overtime) we can't justify a blowout prediction, so a close game it is. And since there has to be at least one game that throws things into chaos, we'll take Utah to win by a nose.
  Final Prediction: Utah 36, Oregon 35
  
  
• #6 Alabama (7-1) vs. #23 LSU (7-2) 8pm ET CBS
  Line/spread: Alabama by 6.5
  Strength power rating projection: Alabama 26-20
  Yardage breakdown forecast: Alabama 31-14
  Analysis: LSU tries to play spoiler again, and maybe with a lot of luck make the Playoff as a 2-loss team. To even win the West division they need lots of losses by other teams and tiebreaker help; it's nearly impossible but they can sure crush Alabama's hopes by beating them in Death Valley.
  
  Alabama looks like the better team, is #1 in our Strength power rating, and has been playing their best football lately. LSU is looking a lot better lately, too, with their win over Mississippi. But the narrow escape at Florida and 41-7 beatdown by Auburn wasn't that long ago; the story of the "young team" growing up is a little ridiculous for a 3-week timespan. Against Auburn LSU gave up 566 yards, and against Mississippi State earlier they gave up 570. Alabama isn't far behind those teams in offensive production, and lately the Crimson Tide offense has been running smoothly.
  Final Prediction: Alabama 31, LSU 17

Finally, for all the talk of elimination games this week there is only one game that is a true elimination game...assuming these teams aren't already eliminated, which is pretty close to the truth.

• Iowa (6-2) at Minnesota (6-2) 12noon ET ESPN2
  Line/spread: Pick'em
  Strength power rating projection: tie 21-21
  Yardage breakdown forecast: tie 14-14
  Analysis: Despite having just 2 losses each and controlling their destiny toward winning a Big Ten championship, neither team appears in the Committee's top 25 nor in our projected season-end Playoff odds chart. The former is because each team has a bad loss (Iowa to 2-6 Iowa State, Minnesota to 4-5 Illinois), and the latter is because both teams still have Wisconsin and Nebraska on the schedule (and Minnesota has Ohio State, too). The chance for either team to run the table, even if they win this game? Slim to none. So the combined odds of a Playoff berth for these teams is less than 0.1%.
  
  That still leaves a prayer for the winner, though, so who is it going to be? The oddsmakers have the game a pick'em, and by the numbers it looks like an overtime game, favoring Minnesota by a hair, in both the Strength and Yardage projections. Iowa should have more passing yards, Minnesota more rushing yards, and the result a wash in total offense. Special teams play could give the Gophers the edge, but Minnesota's last three games have been their worst performances, while Iowa is coming off by far their best game of the season, beating Northwestern 41-7. Compare that to Minnesota's 24-17 win over the Wildcats, and their most recent game, the 28-24 loss to the Illini. Iowa also handled Purdue easily compared to the Gophers' 1-point win. The Hawkeyes keep their Big Ten hopes alive, and their Playoff aspirations on life support.
  Final Prediction: Iowa 23, Minnesota 14

 

Playoff Odds Week 10: Committee, close calls shake up forecast

Our College Football Playoff forecast looks a bit different this week, as usual. On the field, it was a play here, a play there that made a difference in several big games. But not all of the shakeup is because of what happened on the field: the Committee's first rankings tipped their hat concerning their opinion of certain teams; that gave a boost to some while weighing down others.

Florida State beat Louisville 42-31 on the road, surviving perhaps their toughest test left on their schedule (though more keep popping up—see Florida and Miami), while Mississippi State held on to beat Arkansas 17-10. Not surprisingly, the only two major undefeated teams keep their top spots in the projection, with FSU now at 78.5%, their highest certainty since week 3. The Bulldogs peek over the 50% mark, with tough tests looming at Auburn and Alabama.

Oregon moves up a notch to #3 and TCU slips in at #4. The Ducks dominated Stanford 45-16 and the rest of their path looks manageable; TCU escaped with a 31-30 win at West Virginia and their path is even easier than Oregon's, as they don't have a conference title game and they've played the hardest part of the schedule already. But despite their "easy" paths, they're still both below 50% certainty as both yet face tough conference opponents (Oregon vs. Utah, TCU vs. Kansas State this week). And at this point, winning out still doesn't guarantee either a Playoff spot; the SEC situation will affect that greatly.

We no longer have two SEC teams in our top four, but the next two at #5 and #6 are Auburn and Alabama, so depending on how the SEC shakes out two representatives is very possible. One of the Committee's main revelations is that they considered Auburn to be well ahead of Alabama, and after the Tigers' 35-31 win at Mississippi that notion should only be stronger. The two will meet in Tuscaloosa to settle things head-to-head in any case.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 10 (11/02/2014)

Last week	11/2 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	11/2 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	CFP 11/4 Proj
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
1	1	Florida St	78.5	+16.8	8-0	12	0	10.8	1.2	12.7%	2
2	2	Mississippi St	52.9	+5.4	8-0	10	2	10.6	1.4	4.3%	1
4	3	Oregon	47.8	+15.1	8-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	41.5%	4
6	4	TCU	42.3	+12.2	7-1	11	1	10.6	1.4	59.6%	5
8	5	Auburn	39.8	+17.7	7-1	10	2	10.0	2.0	14.5%	3
3	6	Alabama	23.8	-23.3	7-1	11	1	9.9	2.1	16.3%	6
5	7	Michigan St	23.4	-7.4	7-1	11	1	10.3	1.7	27.1%	8
9	8	Marshall	12.7	-2.5	8-0	12	0	11.6	0.4	40.5%	--
12	9	Baylor	10.9	-1.8	7-1	10	2	9.8	2.2	15.3%	11
13	10	Ohio State	10.2	+0.3	7-1	10	2	10.1	1.9	14.8%	15
10	11	Notre Dame	9.8	-3.9	7-1	10	2	9.5	2.5	13.1%	10
18	12	Kansas St	8.1	+4.4	7-1	9	3	9.3	2.7	7.0%	7
16	13	Duke	8.1	+1.6	7-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	10.0%	22
15	14	Oklahoma	7.1	+0.3	6-2	10	2	9.7	2.3	67.8%	14
7	15	Mississippi	6.3	-16.2	7-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	29.6%	9
14	16	Nebraska	5.2	-1.7	8-1	10	2	9.9	2.1	8.5%	13
17	17	Clemson	4.7	-1.0	6-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	29.3%	18
19	18	Colorado St	2.5	0.0	8-1	11	1	10.5	1.5	34.0%	--
23	19	Arizona St	2.4	+1.1	7-1	9	3	9.5	2.5	2.5%	12
24	20	Wisconsin	0.9	+0.1	6-2	10	2	9.0	3.0	12.6%	25
11	21	Georgia	0.7	-12.5	6-2	9	3	9.0	3.0	9.8%	20
--	22	UCLA	0.6	+0.3	7-2	10	2	8.9	3.1	7.2%	16
--	23	LSU	0.5	+0.2	7-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	7.1%	17
21	24	Arizona	0.3	-1.4	6-2	9	3	8.7	3.3	3.9%	19
22	25	Utah	0.2	-1.1	6-2	9	3	8.3	3.7	2.3%	21

Dropped out: #20 East Carolina, #25 West Virginia   Others receiving "votes": Georgia Tech (7-2), Iowa (6-2), Missouri (7-2), West Virginia (6-3), Louisville (6-3), Minnesota (6-2)

The Committee speaks: Michigan State is behind Oregon; Marshall unranked; Notre Dame dumped

Another thing the Committee made clear is that Oregon is firmly ahead of Michigan State (whom they beat, after all, by 19 points). The Coaches' poll seems to have gotten the message, finally, as the Ducks pushed to #5 and knocked the Spartans to #6 (the same switch happened with Auburn and Alabama, in both the AP and USA polls). The polls did a lot of conforming to the Committee's rankings, including moving TCU up a number of spots—normally a 1-point win doesn't do that.

So the Spartans fall to #7 here, as their standing with the Committee turned out to be lower than polls were indicating. Another team unlucky with the Committee was Marshall, but in the case of the Herd they were just screwed; there should be a spot among the top 25 teams for a strong 8-0 team. It dings them slightly in our projection but they move up a spot due to other teams losing.

Those losing teams (Ole Miss, Georgia) helped Baylor and Ohio State move up three spots each. Both are underdogs in big games (Baylor at Oklahoma, the Buckeyes at Michigan State) this coming weekend and until they can win those their Playoff odds are just into double digits.

Notice that Notre Dame didn't take the same advantage, falling a spot instead of moving up. The Irish looked weak again at Navy, winning 49-39 but again, the main cause of their drop in the polls was that the Committee put them at #10 instead of #6 or #7. That means things aren't looking so rosy for a 1-loss Irish, and certainly not as a 2-loss squad. The idea was that the close loss to FSU might either consecrate them as worthy by itself, or put them in position to take advantage of a Seminole stumble. Now they have to win out and hope for the best—pretty much like everyone else, really.

Kansas State, Duke hope to steal conference championships

Baylor and Oklahoma were the Big Twelve favorites going into the season. TCU was the first to crash the party, now Kansas State is making its move, playing better every week. The Wildcats crushed Oklahoma State 48-14 (does it seem everyone is destroying the Cowboys except FSU?) and next week they visit the Horned Frogs. They move up to #12 this week, still weighed down by the task of facing TCU, West Virginia, and Baylor yet, but for now the Committee likes their only loss being Auburn, 20-14, as well as the win over Oklahoma, who the Wildcats passed for the first time in the projection.

Duke is moving even more quietly, looking for an ACC Coastal crown that will allow them another shot at Florida State. The way the Seminoles are looking these days the Blue Devils might have a reasonable shot. We favor Duke in every game left (prior to the title game) but the cumulative odds suggest a stumble somewhere before that is likely.

Pac-12 picture clearer, but four South teams are technically Playoff-alive

UCLA's win over Arizona doubled the Bruins' meager hopes, and knocked Arizona back to reality. The Wildcats didn't fall far on our chart (from #21 to #24) because we didn't give them a lot of chance to make the Playoff to begin with; they were expected to lose to the Bruins and will probably lose one more.

Arizona State beat Utah in overtime, pushing the Utes down to #25 while the Sun Devils move up to #19. Really, these important Pac-12 South games barely changed anything since the winner of the South has to go through Oregon, and three of the four have 2 losses which means even if they were to win out, they'd have very long Playoff odds.

Do SEC also-rans still have a shot?

Mississippi was undefeated two games ago, now they're 7-2 and ranked #15 in the projection. They still show a 6.3% to make the Playoff. To reach the SEC title game would require a lot to fall into place; the Rebels can beat Mississippi State but the Bulldogs would have to lose another one. Maybe Alabama, but the Tide would have to lose another one, and Auburn needs to lose twice...in short, the best hope for Ole Miss, as well as LSU (new at #23), is for chaos and a mess of 2-loss teams around the nation.

Georgia lost to Florida but has a much easier path to the title game, but even if they play it near home they don't look as capable as the Rebels. They will get Todd Gurley back after another game, but the 2-loss teams are in a holding pattern until most of the 1-loss teams are killed off, and right now there are a lot of them.

 

Week 10 preview, odds, & predictions: Oregon-Stanford, Florida-Georgia are afterthought games?

The way the season is shaking out it's clear that the SEC race is the most important things in the college football world; that conference is almost certain to have two reps in the Playoff, so how it shakes out is of paramount importance. After that? Probably the Big Twelve, since it has less of a front-runner than the other conferences while still having a good chance of getting a team in.

The ACC has an obvious leader that will probably get in; the Pac-12 has a clear favorite and a strong chance of getting in; the Big Ten has a leader or two, coupled with a low chance of making it. So the races that matter most are the SEC and Big Twelve.

So this week we see a couple of very good Pac-12 games taking a back seat to SEC and Big Twelve games. We also see another Pac-12 game—the normally huge Stanford-Oregon game—being more of an afterthough. It's only important if there's an upset. Same with Florida-Georgia; normally the winner gets a big boost toward winning the SEC East, but this year Florida is pretty much out of it with three conference losses.

Biggest Games: 1-loss teams

• #8 Auburn (6-1) at #7 Mississippi (7-1) 7:00pm ET ESPN
  Line/spread: Ole Miss by 1.5
  Strength power rating projection: Mississippi 24-21
  Yardage breakdown forecast: tie 28-28
  Analysis: How important is this game to the College Football Playoff? Well the teams currently rank #3 and #4 by the Committee's estimation, meaning right now they're both "in." Our forecast doesn't put them quite as high, mainly because we look ahead to games like this one and recognize that after Saturday, one team or the other will be "out" and have a tough time getting back in. Ole Miss has the nation's best defense, and a less-effective offense as seen last week against LSU. Auburn rates #5 in both offense and defense despite last week's 35 points allowed to South Carolina. Though each suffered a recent loss, these are still two of the very best teams in the country. Auburn's loss to Mississippi State had them reeling for another game where they almost lost to South Carolina. Will Mississippi's loss to LSU affect them for another week? It could, and that's why we're going with Auburn in a minor upset.
  Final Prediction: Auburn 28, Mississipp 24
  
  
• #22 Utah (6-1) at #23 Arizona State (6-1) 11pm ET Fox Sports 1
  Line/spread: Arizona State by 6.5
  Strength power rating projection: Utah 30-29
  Yardage breakdown forecast: ASU 34-24
  Analysis: Two teams, same division, both with one loss—why is this game so much less important than Auburn-Ole Miss? Consider that they're ranked just 17th and 14th in the Committee's rankings, and even in our future Playoff projections just 22 and 23. We figure both these teams will have 3 losses before it's all over, and the first one—for one of them—happens Saturday. They're just #24 and #32 in Strength, which explains their problem in the tough Pac-12. Utah has been living on the edge lately with their last four games decided in the final seconds or overtime; they won by 2 points, double overtime, and 3 points in the last three. The Sun Devils are coming off two big wins that followed their hail Mary win over USC. Are they on a "roll" that won't stop? The current trends would seem to indicate either ASU wins solidly or Utah wins a close one. So count on ASU winning a close one or Utah winning solidly; either of those would break both patterns, so we'll arbitrarily choose one: the Utes' luck in close games running out.
  Final Prediction: Arizona State 31, Utah 27

Still Big Games: 1-loss vs. 2-loss teams

• #6 TCU (6-1) at #25 West Virginia (6-2) 3:30pm ET ABC
  Line/spread: TCU by 3.5
  Strength power rating projection: TCU 43-31
  Yardage breakdown forecast: 45-45 tie
  Analysis: These teams are #1 and #8 in adjusted total offense (yardage) but West Virginia isn't as productive in scoring. TCU is, of course, and they're coming off an 82-point effort. That was at home, but they haven't been a slouch on the road, scoring 56 at SMU and 58 at Baylor. The Mountaineer defense is better than either of those teams, but it looks like TCU's offense is on an unstoppable roll. The Horned Frog defense has taken a hit due to the fast pace so don't think West Virginia will hurt for points. The over/under on this game is 71.5, but we figure the teams combined should be able to match what TCU put up last weekend.
  Final Prediction: TCU 44, West Virginia 38
  
  
• #21 Arizona (6-1) at UCLA (6-2) 10:30pm ET ESPN
  Line/spread: UCLA by 6.5
  Strength power rating projection: UCLA 37-34
  Yardage breakdown forecast: UCLA 45-36
  Analysis: Again, here's another important Pac-12 game, how come no one cares much? Probably because UCLA hasn't come close to living up to their billing (while West Virginia has exceeded expectation) and Arizona, while 6-1, is only #12 in the Committee rankings (compared to TCU in the top ten). We project the Wildcats to end up #21, even as we argued that if the season ended today the Wildcats should be in the top four. But their win over Oregon was excused due to the Ducks' "injuries" (you can find an injury to ignore any loss, of course), and if they win out they'll have to prove it any way by beating Oregon again. The question is can they get there? The South is pretty wide open and UCLA could easily slip back in to the Pac-12 title game if Utah, ASU, and Arizona knock each other off. An Arizona win this weekend would put a stop to that and give the Wildcats a bit more respect. UCLA is a lot like FSU this year—disappointing, but finds a way to win ugly (except twice, when they couldn't). Our yardage projections show both teams with 300 passing yards but UCLA, interestingly, winning the game on the ground. Given that both teams live on the edge (the whole Pac-12 does) we pick another last-second finish.
  Final Prediction: UCLA 41, Arizona 40

Forgotten games = upset potential?

• Stanford (5-3) at #4 Oregon (7-1) 7:30 ET Fox
  Line/spread: Oregon by 8
  Strength power rating projection: Oregon 28-16
  Yardage breakdown forecast: Stanford 24-23
  Analysis: Yet another Pac-12 game, and it was supposed to one of the most important games in the college football season. But Stanford's 3 losses have reduced this to just another game—unless Stanford wins, which, given recent history, is not far-fetched. The difference this year is that the Cardinal don't have much of a running game, ranking just 74th (adjusted) in the nation. How is that happening when they have Barry Sanders, Jr, and he is averaging 7.3 yards per carry? Not sure, exactly. We project the teams to have roughly equal rushing yardage, though, since the Cardinal still have a great rushing defense—#9 in the nation—and their scoring defense is #3. Everyone is so sure Oregon is "back" after "injuries" lost the Arizona game for them, and Stanford is so off the radar, that we wouldn't rule out an upset here; however, since the Ducks are still outside the top four it's unlikely any complacency will set in—yet. Oregon has lost to Stanford twice in a row and won't look ahead (not that there's anyone more important on their schedule anyway). But the defense will have to step up, since they can't necessarily count on production from the offense.
  Final Prediction: Oregon 17, Stanford 16
  
  
• Florida (3-3) vs. #11 Georgia (6-1) 3:30 ET CBS
  Line/spread: Georgia by 10.5
  Strength power rating projection: Georgia 41-25
  Yardage breakdown forecast: Georgia 29-24
  Analysis: Is Florida dead and gone? Are they the Michigan of the South? Or is there possibly life breathing underneath the husk that was a great team just a few years ago? Well, for one thing they're not nearly as far gone as the Wolverines, who can't compete with decent teams this season. Florida struggled to beat Kentucky and Tennessee, but those are both pretty good teams. They played Alabama pretty tight for a while, and almost beat LSU. Their one catastrophic game was last week vs. Missouri, a 42-13 loss. The defense actually played well enough to win that game, as four Tiger touchdowns were due to Gator offense and special teams blunders. That's either a sign that the ship could be righted, or that all hell has broken loose and the situation is unfixable. This game will show what the answer is; if the Gators play well and keep it close, then the season is salvagable. If it's the blowout that it could be, then it's all over for Muschamp and company. One thing that seems certain is that the offense is dead. The hope is the defense can keep the team on life support, and pray for the offense to get lucky here and there, resulting in a win. Georgia didn't get Todd Gurley back, which is a kind gift from the Gods to the Gators, but the Bulldogs haven't been any less effective without him.  They've had no problem against two teams with good rushing defenses, Missouri and Arkansas. Florida could turn their season around with games coming up against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky, but it might be asking too much for them to start the process against the Bulldogs.
  Final Prediction: Georgia 40, Florida 23