Heisman update post-week 10: Mariota's to lose—just like last year

A year ago, Marcus Mariota was in great position to win the Heisman Trophy. In fact, had his team won out the award would have been his. He had a 20:0 TD:int ratio and helmed the #2 team in the nation. This year, he's again in the lead according to most prognisticators, has a stellar 26:2 ratio, his team is #4 in the polls, and the award is basically his if he can help his team win out.

A year ago, a loss to Stanford—and a later, worse loss to Arizona—derailed his chances. Amazingly, he didn't finish among the top ten in voting. What will happen this year?

Last year his biggest threats were Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston. Manziel's team would lose several games late in the season, so he wasn't a serious threat to win. And Winston got his chance to win the award only because Mariota and Oregon stumbled. This year his biggest competitor is Dak Prescott of undefeated Mississippi State. Prescott's passing stats (61%, 17:6 ratio) aren't great, but he adds 725 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and the Bulldogs are #1. They just got by Arkansas last week.

There isn't a solid #3, as Jameis Winston's performance is split between first half sloppiness and 2nd half heroics. His off-field conduct has pretty much insured that he won't win the award again, and hurts his chances of getting back to New York—unless there's no one else to fill the candidates' seats. After a 3-interception performance in the Louisville comeback he drops to #4, while Melvin Gordon's consistent production (128 yards vs. Rutgers) moves him up to #3.

Mariota had four touchdowns in beating Stanford, the team that first derailed his hopes last year, and he holds the #1 spot.

Week 10: Can Mariota finish strong this season?

1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon (8-1) beat Stanford 45-16
2. Dak Prescott, QB Miss. State (8-0) beat Arkansas 17-10
3. [up 2] Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin (6-2) beat Rutgers 37-0
4. [dn 1] Jameis Winston, QB FSU (8-0) beat Louisville 42-31
5. [dn 1] Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska (7-1) beat Purdue 35-14
6. [up 1] Amari Cooper, WR Alabama (7-1) idle this week
7. [up 1] Bryce Petty, QB Baylor (7-1) beat Kansas 60-14
8. [up 1] Trevone Boykin, QB TCU (7-1) beat West Virginia 31-30
9. [dn 3] Todd Gurley, RB Georgia (6-2) lost to Florida 38-20 (did not play)
10. [new] Everett Golson, QB Notre Dame (7-1) beat Navy 49-39
11. [dn 1] Kevin White, WR West Virginia (6-3) lost to TCU 31-30
12. [dn 1] Kenny Hill, QB Texas A&M (6-3) beat UL-Monroe 21-16 (did not play)

Gordon takes the top running back spot almost by default. Ameer Abdullah was unjured and managed just 1 yard against Purdue; he has the coming weekend off and might be back for the showdown with Gordon and Wisconsin. Todd Gurley missed his third game for Georgia—one more to go—and the Bulldogs lost big. He drops three more spots to #9 and has too much ground to recover in the 3 or 4 games he'll have left before the vote.

Three minor candidates, Amari Cooper, Bryce Petty, and Trevone Boykin, move up a bit with Gurley's drop. Cooper's Alabama was idle, while Petty was good against weak Kansas and Boykin wasn't great again a strong West Virginia.

But Boykin's team got the win, which is more than the Mountaineers' Kevin White can say. Just two weeks after having the stats of a real contender, White has had two very sub-par games including just 28 receiving yards against TCU. He slips to #11.

Still, that's not as bad as Kenny Hill. Not only was he benched, he's been suspended for two games. Hill will be the first player cut in a couple of weeks when we start culling.

For now though, new players are still joining the fray. Notre Dame's Everett Golson finally warrants consideration after a consistently good season. Against Navy he accounted for 6 touchdowns, 3 passing and 3 running. Being from Notre Dame and facing a weak crop of contenders, he has every opportunity to make it to New York with strong performances against the likes of Arizona State and USC. And if Mariota and Oregon falter again, it's anyone's guess who will be on top. In the Heisman, the last few weeks as as important as the first 10 weeks combined.