Who should be in the Playoff Committee's first top four? How about Arizona?

The College Football Playoff Committee announces its first Top 25 tonight, but all eyes will be on the Committee's top four teams. It will reveal a lot about what they think the purpose of the Committee is. Do they think it is

• A) To rank the best four teams in the nation for a Playoff, or
• B) To create a Playoff with the purpose of crowning a national champion

There's a big difference, and we hold that "B" is a better way to go about things. While the Committee is officially tasked with "A", there are often cases where top four teams have already met, and one has soundly and decisively defeated the other. Why include a team when we've already seen they can't be the best team in the country? The regular season much retain its importance in the Playoff era, and our philosophy is that head-to-head matchups form "invisible brackets" that lead into the bracket with the final four teams.

That said, here is the criteria we would use to determine the top four teams:

• Undefeated teams are in, unless their schedule is extremely weak
• 2-loss teams are out, except under extreme conditions (LSU 2007 is maybe the only case)

Nothing outrageous so far. That leaves 1-loss teams, and what to do with them.

1-loss teams should be ordered by head-to-head competition with other contending teams

• A decisive loss to an undefeated team should count as an eliminator game that is part of the "invisible bracket" of the regular season. If the outcome is not decisive (a close loss on the road) then there is no elimination
• In head-to-head games with other 1-loss teams, the winner should be preferred
• 1-loss teams who make the Playoff should ideally have at least one win over another 1-loss team; if this isn't possible due to lack of 1-loss teams, then wins over 2-loss teams are used, and so forth

1-loss teams who make the Playoff should have no losses that "disqualify" them from being a national championship contender. These may include:

• A blowout loss
• A loss at home
• A loss to a team with a losing record

However:

• A very close loss (overtime, Hail Mary, losses by 3 or less at home, or 7 or less on the road) can be considered a non-decisive loss and not disqualify the team from being a national title contender

From the criteria above it's clear that no 2-loss teams are currently in consideration, since there are 18 teams with 1 loss. There are three undefeated teams, and two should clearly be in the top four:

• Florida State (7-0) beat Notre Dame 31-27
• Mississippi State (7-0) beat Auburn 38-24

and then we have Marshall, undefeated but with a very poor schedule.

• Marshall (8-0) best win: 5-3 MTSU 49-24

Our position is that they should have a shot at the national title if they go unbeaten, but most people disagree so we'll make a bracket that includes them and one that excludes them.

With so many 1-loss teams, we can be pretty strict with our criteria, screening only for teams that have defeated another 1-loss team and don't have a disqualifying loss. The 1-loss teams with a win over another 1-loss team are:

• Arizona (6-1) won at Oregon 31-24
• Auburn (6-1) won at Kansas State 20-14
• Baylor (6-1) beat TCU 61-58
• Michigan State (7-1) beat Nebraska 27-22
• Mississippi (7-1) beat Alabama 23-17
• Oregon (7-1) beat Michigan State 46-27

To choose one or two teams from the above six, there are some simple observations:

• Auburn lost decisively to Mississippi State, 38-23, which should count as a "pre-playoff" result and eliminate the Tigers
• Baylor lost decisively to 6-2 West Virginia, 41-27
• Michigan State lost decisively to Oregon, who in turn lost at home to Arizona

That leaves Arizona and Mississippi. Neither of their losses is bad:

• Arizona lost at home to 5-3 USC, but by a score of 28-26 on a missed last-second field goal
• Mississippi lost 10-7 on the road to 6-2 LSU

And that makes our top four

1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Arizona
4. Mississippi

or, if Marshall gets a spot:

1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Marshall
4. Arizona

The Wildcats aren't featured in most people's "mock" top fours. Oregon is generally considered to be "ahead" of them despite the head-to-head loss. It was a close game, but it was at Oregon and right now I see no reason to put the Ducks in front.

Arizona also might be slightly ahead of Mississippi. They have a win over Oregon who has a win over Michigan State, a longer "string" of marquee wins than Mississippi is part of. The Wildcats did have a number of close wins over bad teams, but they won. If we exclude Marshall, then both Arizona and Ole Miss are in.

Luckily, the Arizona-Oregon question will be resolved by Pac-12 play—all part of the regular season's irregular pre-Playoff brackets—and the SEC will sort itself out as well, with the top bracket's Mississippi State-Mississippi matchup played in November. But if the season ended today, Arizona would deserve a spot in the top four.

What about the other 1-loss teams, who don't have a marquee win over a 1-loss team? We list them here, in rough order of how bad their one loss was:

• Notre Dame (6-1) lost at Florida State 31-27: last-play controversial road loss to undefeated team
• TCU (6-1) lost at Baylor 61-58: 3-point road loss to 1-loss team, led by 21 in 4th quarter
• Alabama (7-1) lost at Mississippi: close road loss to 1-loss team
• Nebraska (7-1) lost at Michigan State 27-22: close road loss to 1-loss team, was behind 27-3
• Kansas State (6-1) lost to Auburn 20-14: close loss to 1-loss team, but at home
• Georgia (6-1) lost at 4-4 South Carolina 38-35: close road loss
• Colorado State (7-1) lost at 6-2 Boise State 37-24: moderate road loss
• Duke (6-1) lost at 5-3 Miami 22-10: moderate road loss
• East Carolina (6-1) lost at 4-4 South Carolina 33-23: moderate road loss
• Ohio State (6-1) lost to 4-4 Virginia Tech 35-21: home loss
• Utah (6-1) lost to 2-6 Washington State 28-27: very close loss, but at home and to a losing team
• Arizona State (6-1) lost to 6-2 UCLA 62-27: blowout loss at home