Week 8 Playoff Odds: SEC West will have two Playoff teams

Week 8 saw two big upsets in the Big Twelve, and two very impressive performances by SEC West teams. Taken together, it has made it almost certain that the SEC will have two Playoff teams, and most likely they will both come from the SEC West.

The weekend's most underrated upset was Mississippi's 34-3 win over Tennessee. The Volunteers are just 3-4 but rank 20th in Strength, and the Rebels beat them worse than Oklahoma or Georgia did. The upshot is that Ole Miss is now favored in the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State and ranks as the "top seed" in our forecast with a 65% chance to make the Playoff. The Bulldogs slip to #3 during their idle week.

Florida State won the weekend's biggest game by beating Notre Dame 31-27. It was pretty much exactly what our power rating expected, but it gets another potential roadblock off the Seminoles' schedule and their Playoff Odds rise to 59%.

The most impressive win was Alabama's, of course. The Crimson Tide throttled Texas A&M 59-0, an amazing performance on both offense and defense. The Aggies lost to Mississippi and Mississippi State, but not nearly this bad even if you disregard the 4th quarter touchdowns they got against both teams. Last week Alabama looked like a 9-3 or 8-4 team given their remaining schedule; now they're favored to win out and look 10-2 at the worst. The Tide jump from #16 last week to #4 this week. They're favored to beat Mississippi State but the Bulldogs remain ahead at #3 since they have a chance to win out and control their destiny while Alabama doesn't.

So we now have three SEC teams in the top four—not just three SEC teams, but three teams from the SEC West. This is reflected in the polls, too, and the polls are becoming a bigger part of our forecast each week. It doesn't mean that things will end up this way, however; only Ole Miss and FSU are above the 50% mark, so it's best to think of the current forecast as: Mississippi, FSU, and either Mississippi State or Alabama, with the last spot going to TCU, Michigan State, or Oregon.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 8 (10/19/2014)

Last week	10/19 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	10/19 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
5	1	Mississippi	65.1	+32.5	7-0	12	0	10.6	1.5	8.2%	3
3	2	Florida St	59.0	+10.6	7-0	11	1	10.4	1.7	7.8%	2
2	3	Mississippi St	45.3	-6.1	6-0	10	2	10.4	1.6	4.2%	1
16	4	Alabama	35.6	+31.9	6-1	11	1	9.7	2.3	10.8%	4
6	5	TCU	27.7	-1.1	5-1	11	1	10.2	1.8	40.2%	10
8	6	Michigan St	27.4	+7.4	6-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	17.6%	6.5
10	7	Oregon	26.9	+7.8	6-1	11	1	10.1	1.9	22.8%	6.5
11	8	Marshall	16.0	+4.2	7-0	12	0	11.6	0.4	50.4%	22.5
1	9	Baylor	12.9	-47.5	6-1	10	2	9.9	2.2	19.3%	12.5
9	10	Auburn	12.3	-7.3	5-1	9	3	9.4	2.6	6.5%	5.5
12	11	Ohio State	12.0	+1.8	5-1	10	2	10.0	2.0	16.1%	12.5
4	12	Notre Dame	11.9	-24.4	6-1	10	2	9.4	2.6	12.7%	7.5
13	13	Nebraska	11.2	+2.7	6-1	11	1	10.1	1.9	14.5%	16
14	14	Georgia	9.0	+3.0	6-1	10	2	10.1	1.9	12.8%	9
7	15	Oklahoma	6.7	-20.5	5-2	10	2	9.4	2.6	51.2%	17.5
15	16	Clemson	6.6	+0.7	5-2	10	2	9.5	2.5	43.6%	20.5
22	17	Kansas St	3.5	+2.9	5-1	9	3	8.9	3.1	3.7%	11
24	18	Colorado St	2.3	+1.9	6-1	11	1	10.0	2.0	19.3%	29.5
17	19	East Carolina	2.2	+0.0	5-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	22.6%	17.5
19	20	Duke	2.1	+0.7	6-1	10	2	9.2	2.8	2.5%	26.5
23	21	Arizona	0.9	+0.4	5-1	9	3	8.6	3.4	0.8%	15
18	22	Utah	0.9	-1.2	5-1	10	2	8.5	3.5	0.9%	19
20	23	UCLA	0.6	-0.2	5-2	10	2	8.6	3.4	7.2%	26.5
--	24	Arizona St	0.6	+0.5	5-1	8	4	8.2	3.8	0.4%	14
21	25	Louisville	0.4	-0.2	6-2	9	3	8.2	3.8	4.8%	32

Dropped out: #25 Minnesota   Others receiving "votes": West Virginia (5-2), USC (5-2), Wisconsin (4-2), Minnesota (6-1), Maryland (5-2), LSU (6-2)

Big Twelve: Spoilers might have cost the conference a spot

#5 TCU ripped Oklahoma State 42-9 but two teams they have yet to face—West Virginia and Kansas State—pulled off big upsets and now look tougher to beat, so the Horned Frogs' playoff odds dipped about one percentage point to 27.7%. They're the conference's best hope for a bid, something that seemed all but guaranteed last week when Big Twelve teams held three of the top seven slots.

Last week's top seed, Baylor, lost to West Virginia 41-27 dropped to #9. Even though they beat TCU, they have yet to face Oklahoma and figure to lose that game on the road. The Sooners are in worse position with two losses after falling to Kansas State 31-30 at home, dropping from #7 to #15. That still puts them ahead of the Wildcats who have yet to face TCU and Baylor. Still, K-State jumps from #22 to #17 and they control their destiny to winning the Big Twelve—something no other B12 team can say.

Big Ten: Spartans have the conference edge but Oregon can block their Playoff hopes

Michigan State and Ohio State both won 56-17 last weekend and the Spartans are close enough in Strength to hold the projected head-to-head edge at home over the Buckeyes. So while Ohio State moves up one spot to #11, Michigan State jumps two spots to #6. That's still one spot ahead of Oregon, due to the a tougher Pac-12 schedule; Oregon has a bigger chance to have multiple losses in the Pac-12 than MSU does in the Big Ten. The Spartans have an inexplicable #5 to #7 edge in the Coaches' poll which should correct itself any week now. Ultimately, a 1-loss Oregon will be ahead of 1-loss Michigan State and probably a 1-loss Ohio State too, so it would be best for the Big Ten if Oregon lost again.

In the Big Ten West Nebraska still leads the pack after beating Northwestern this week. They're still on track to win out, but will be underdog in the Big Ten championship game. Their chief competition in the West, Minnesota, very nearly lost to Purdue and that weakness cost them their #25 spot.

Pac-12: It's basically Oregon or bust

If Oregon doesn't make the College Football Playoff the Pac-12 is probably shut out. In the North, Stanford just got their 3rd loss and every other team has two losses. In the South, Arizona, Utah, UCLA, and Arizona State all have meager odds, ranking #21 through #24.

The Wildcats are viable if they win out, but that's unlikely. Utah has a bad loss to Washington State, UCLA has two losses and barely beat Cal this weekend, and ASU has a 35-point loss to the Bruins that will haunt them despite the respect they're getting in the polls. The Sun Devils face Notre Dame in November but the Irish's loss to FSU will prevent that from being a potential defining moment for ASU. The Irish ruined the opportunity for USC, too, and the Trojans already have 2 losses including Boston College.

Non-Power conference teams: Marshall officially looking like a 13-0 team

Marshall is 7-0 and looks like a 13-0 team come December. Even the cumulative projection calls for 11.6 wins (in 12 games) and their odds to go 13-0 have moved slightly above 50%. In our All-Division Strength power rating the Thundering Herd rank just one place behind Florida State! The pollsters are warming up a bit, too, but it won't be enough to raise their ceiling; note that although they rise to #8 their odds are far behind #7 Oregon. What happened in the Big Twelve needs to happen in the SEC; Marshall needs a repeat of 2007 to have a reasonable chance at a Playoff berth, though going 13-0 will at least rate a mention in the press and spawn a few arguments.

Independent Notre Dame fell from #4 to #12 but not because of the loss to FSU, which was expected. The game at USC is looking a bit harder now and that could be the Irish's 2nd loss, and Arizona State's beatdown of Stanford makes that one look more difficult, too. Notre Dame needs to win out to have a reasonable Playoff shot and that looks a lot less likely. If they do go 11-1 and FSU remains undefeated they could be in very good shape, though.

Colorado State jumped their last major hurdle toward a 12-1 season by beating Utah State 16-13. The Rams move from #24 to #18, still basically off the radar but ahead of East Carolina, the other non-Power Five team that still has a prayer. The Pirates lost some poll support in their bye week and won't have a conference championship game to get attention. It would take a very crazy season for either of these teams to get into serious consideration, however.

The Rest of the SEC: Auburn, Georgia can still get in if they win out

The best team in the country could end up 9-3. Auburn ranks #1 in Strength, but after their loss to Mississippi State, and the fact that they play Mississippi and Alabama on the road, could end up with three losses. The SEC West might have the four best teams in the country but the conference winner could be Georgia from the East, as the championship game is played in Atlanta and the Bulldogs are good enough to beat anyone there. As of now, Auburn's odds dip to 12% and they slip to #10, while Georgia's odds are up to 9% and they hold at #14.

ACC: Teams other than FSU jockeying for bowl position

Though Clemson shows up at #16 and Louisville at #25, they both have 2 losses already and too much would have to happen for them to even get a chance at winning the conference; their rankings are going to be limited to the lower half of the chart. Assuming Florida State goes to the Playoff, then the conference needs an Orange Bowl representative. Duke in the Coastal has a clear path to a title shot but miniscule odds of winning out. One of these three teams will go to the Orange Bowl, the others to lesser bowl games.

Comments

[Corwyn]

Crazy scenario could involve Alabama winning out (including beating Miss State), Ole Miss winning until the Egg Bowl, & Miss State winning the egg bowl so all three finish 11-1.

Still hard to imagine 3 of them getting in since, presumably, OhSt/MichSt & FSU are pretty much locks if they win out.

And of course, all of them winning out will be tough since Ole Miss & Alabama still have to play Auburn. It certainly could be that all 4 of the top 4 teams in the nation are in the SEC West; which is kind of unbelievable when you think about it.