Week 7 Playoff Odds: Baylor, Mississippi State only teams above 50%; Notre Dame at #4

As if last week wasn't too much to handle, week 7 created quite a mess on our College Football Playoff Odds chart. Mainly it was Mississippi State's upset of Auburn that wreaked havoc, but a number of more subtle developments had big effects, too.

The upshot is that the entire top ten is expected to finish 11-1, with no team other than Marshall slated to be undefeated even before conference championships are played! That's looking game by game; going by the odds, the cumulative projected records are even worse, and it leaves 10 teams at 19% or greater odds to make the Playoff, with only two that are above the 50% waterline.

Baylor now holds the "top seed" designation after beating TCU 61-58 in a remarkable comeback. Their biggest hurdle is Oklahoma but they also played AP-ranked teams Oklahoma State and Kansas State. We favor Oklahoma in Norman and that would create a 3-way tie for the Big Twelve title.

Mississippi State beat previous top seed Auburn 38-32 and now ranks #1 in both polls. They have a tough SEC schedule still ahead but we favor them to win out until a nail-biter loss at Ole Miss. That's essentially a 50/50 game so the odds give the Bulldogs an excellent chance be the top SEC team when the smoke clears, and we give them just over a 50% chance to make the Playoff.

Florida State drops another spot to #3 and falls just below 50%. The problem with the Seminoles is they just haven't played that well; they rank #22 in our All-Division Strength power rating, and play three teams in that neighborhood: #20 Florida, #21 Notre Dame, and #24 Louisville. The first two games are at home so "straight up" they win those two and lose at Louisville, but all three are close contests.

Speaking of Notre Dame, though they didn't play well in beating North Carolina 50-43 they are still undefeated at 6-0, up to #5 in both polls, and have a good shot at beating Florida State this coming weekend. Since we now expect them to be able to beat USC, too, that puts them within striking distance of a Playoff berth at 36%—and with the uncertainty in SEC and Big Twelve race, that's good enough for #4 right now. It's not quite accurate to say they're expected to be in the Playoff by these projections, but they have a better chance than all but three other teams.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff odds chart, week 7 (October 12, 2014)

Last week	10/12 Rank	Team	Playoff Odds %	% Change +/-	10/12 Rec	Projected Record				Odds to win out	Poll Ave
						Straight up		Cumulative
						W	L	W	L
3	1	Baylor	60.4	+8.2	6-0	11	1	11.0	1.0	25.4%	4
10	2	Mississippi St	51.4	+35.5	6-0	11	1	10.7	1.3	9.3%	1
2	3	Florida St	48.4	-12.5	6-0	11	1	9.8	2.2	3.5%	2
7	4	Notre Dame	36.3	+12.8	6-0	11	1	10.0	2.0	7.3%	5
4	5	Mississippi	32.6	+0.4	6-0	11	1	9.9	2.1	2.3%	3
5	6	TCU	28.8	-2.5	4-1	11	1	10.3	1.7	45.9%	12
6	7	Oklahoma	27.2	+1.3	5-1	11	1	10.2	1.8	38.9%	11
12	8	Michigan St	20.0	+11.3	5-1	11	1	9.7	2.3	10.3%	7
1	9	Auburn	19.6	-42.8	5-1	11	1	9.6	2.4	9.4%	7
18	10	Oregon	19.1	+16.9	5-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	11.7%	9
11	11	Marshall	11.8	-2.8	6-0	12	0	11.1	0.9	25.3%	24.5
8	12	Ohio State	10.2	-10.4	4-1	10	2	9.8	2.2	11.9%	13
16	13	Nebraska	8.5	+4.6	5-1	11	1	9.7	2.3	8.8%	19
20	14	Georgia	6.0	+4.2	5-1	10	2	9.6	2.4	7.5%	10
14	15	Clemson	5.9	+0.9	4-2	10	2	9.3	2.7	35.5%	23
15	16	Alabama	3.7	-0.4	5-1	9	3	8.5	3.5	0.8%	7
19	17	East Carolina	2.2	+0.4	5-1	11	1	9.8	2.2	23.7%	17
13	18	Utah	2.1	-2.9	4-1	9	3	8.8	3.2	2.6%	21.5
25	19	Duke	1.4	+0.8	5-1	10	2	8.8	3.2	1.4%	28.5
9	20	UCLA	0.8	-16.2	4-2	10	2	8.6	3.4	8.7%	26
23	21	Louisville	0.6	-0.4	5-2	9	3	8.3	3.7	6.4%	38
--	22	Kansas St	0.6	+0.3	4-1	8	4	7.8	4.2	0.3%	14
17	23	Arizona	0.5	-2.3	5-1	9	3	8.3	3.7	0.4%	16.5
--	24	Colorado St	0.4	+0.2	5-1	10	2	9.4	2.6	8.5%	39.5
--	25	Minnesota	0.2	+0.1	5-1	8	4	8.0	4.0	0.1%	28.5

Dropped out: #21 BYU, #22 Northern Illinois, #24 Texas A&M;  Others receiving "votes": Iowa (5-1), Washington (5-1), Wisconsin (4-2), Virginia Tech (4-2), Texas A&M (5-2), Stanford (4-2), USC (4-2)

SEC is a mess (especially the West)

Last week's #4 Mississippi remained unbeaten and gained slightly from their win over Texas A&M, but were bumped to #5; their odds of beating rival Mississippi State slipped to a sliver over 50%. If they win the Egg Bowl but lose to #9 Auburn (who is still #1 in Strength), then there will be three 11-1 teams from the West. Adding to the West's woes, Georgia was incredible against Missouri—without Todd Gurley—and playing in Atlanta is a threat to beat anyone from the West in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs move up to #14, while Alabama falls to #16; they didn't look good against Arkansas and now look like they might finish with three losses.

The Big Twelve is a bigger mess

TCU slipped to #6 after their loss, while Oklahoma was less-than-spectacular against Texas and slides to #7 (though their Playoff Odds inch up to 27%). Both of these teams are still very much in the thick of the race; the Horned Frogs were expected to lose to Baylor and already beat Oklahoma. If the Sooners beat Baylor (as they should, at home), then the three will be locked in at 11-1. With no championship game, the Committee will have to make a judgement, and by the tie-breaker rules of the Big Twelve, the highest-ranked team in the Committee's rankings will be declared the Big Twelve champion...so basically, the Committee decides who the champion is, and gives that team extra weight as a conference champ. This is all assuming that a team like Kansas State (new at #22) doesn't muck things up for any of these three teams, all of which they have yet to play.

Big Ten: Michigan State is their biggest hope. For now.

The Big Ten doesn't have too much chance of getting a team in the Playoff, but this week Michigan State takes over as the Big Hope at #8. They're ahead of Oregon in both polls somehow at #6 and #8, and though they didn't impress against Purdue it once again looks like they should defend their home field against Ohio State, who slips to #12. The change comes from the Spartans' and Buckeyes' opponents play, which affects their Strength ratings. Oregon won big against UCLA and Eastern Michigan actually beat someone. Meanwhile Buckeye foe Cincinnati was crushed by Miami, and Kent State was blown out by winless UMass. That was enough to tip the future MSU-OSU game to the Spartans. Football is a game of inches, even in power ratings.

In the Big Ten West, #13 Nebraska now has a good chance of going 11-1 and winning the division, while 5-1 Minnesota pops in at #25. The Gophers control their destiny toward winning the Big Ten, even though we expect them to lose three more games.

Pac-12: Oregon back in top ten

Oregon settled the UCLA matter—for now. They still might rematch the Bruins in the Pac-12 title game, but the South is still up for grabs. In any case, Oregon is expected to win the conference but rank only 15th in Strength, so it's a minefield for the Ducks. We have to assume they'll pass Michigan State in the polls at some point, and that the Committee would take a 1-loss Oregon over a 1-loss Big Ten champ Spartans. If not, it's time to get a new Committee.

In the South, Utah was idle but drops to #18 as Oregon's surge made winning the Pac-12 that much harder. UCLA drops from #9 to #20 mainly due to having 2 losses which is a hard pit to crawl out of, but it's not impossible. They've dropped out of both polls and need Utah to lose twice to get back into the Pac-12 title game, so it's understandable that their Playoff odds sit at under 1%. They're ahead of Arizona, who lost on a missed field goal to USC; our chart never really took the Wildcats seriously as a Playoff contender but they still rank ahead of the Trojans, who have 2 losses overall.

Bad week for non-Power Five teams as BYU, Nothern Illinois fall

The number of non-Power Five teams with any chance of making the Playoff continues to dwindle. BYU's hopes were essentially dead when they lost to Utah State and lost Taysom Hill in week 6, but they made it official by losing the UCF in overtime. The Cougars could still recover and have a good season but it won't be the great one it could have been. Meanwhile Northern Illinois lost to Central Michigan, giving the Huskies their 2nd loss.

Marshall, however, stayed at #11 this week. Their odds fell from 15% to 12% as the expected wealth of 11-1 teams is not a good thing for the Thundering Herd. Also their odds of going unbeaten fell from 40% to 25%, mainly due to Alabama-Birmingham looking like a much tougher foe all of a sudden. The good news is that they debuted in both polls. East Carolina won again and moved up to #18 and #16 in the polls, and #17 on our chart. And Colorado State beat Nevada and pokes in at #24. The Rams are expected to lose to Utah State next week, but if they get past the Aggies they have a solid chance of going 12-1, which gives them a Playoff prayer (though one probably unanswered).

The ACC: If not Florida State, then who?

The ACC will be the most "out of luck" conference is Florida State doesn't make the Playoff. Clemson and Louisville are the Atlantic division's other listed candidates, but both have two losses and therefore a low "ceiling" unless major carnage takes place (which is possible). Clemson beat the Cardinals, but our power rating actually expects Louisville to beat FSU. Even that's not enough to put the Cards above #21, and Clemson stands at #15 needing much help just to get to the ACC title game, even as they're ranked #10 in the nation in Strength.

In the Coastal, Duke beat Georgia Tech and basically doubled their odds (to 1.4%). The Blue Devils control their destiny in the Coastal and therefore the ACC, and if FSU stays unbeaten and Duke beats them...well, it's unlikely to happen but at least they have an actual scenario that would put them in the Playoff as ACC champs.

Comments

[Jack]

Your analytical article mistakenly says that Notre Dame plays Florida State in two weeks. They play them THIS week.

[SportsRatings]

good catch, thanks for the heads up