We've been looking ahead to this game as the most likely loss for Florida State for several weeks. Originally it was part of a 3-game test for the Seminoles that included Notre Dame, Louisville, and Florida, all of whom ranked in the Strength top 25 at the time.
Since then, FSU has edged past Notre Dame, and Florida has collapsed into far less of a threat (while Miami, a road game, looks like a more daunting game now). But Louisville remains a threat, and one that seemed the most under the radar until the last week or so, when suddenly everyone has made this into a game that has to be monitored due to upset potential.
Strangely, that probably makes an upset less likely. For Louisville to win they have to catch the Seminoles sleeping just a little bit. When FSU reads that they might get upset, that puts them on guard, maybe makes them feel a bit insulted, ready to bring their "A" game.
So might we see the Old FSU for the first time tonight, the dominant team we saw all of last season? A blowout win tonight would make the rest of FSU's season look like a foregone conclusion at 13-0—unless you think Duke is going to stop them in the ACC championship game.
- #1 Florida State (7-0) at Louisville (5-2) 7:30pm ET Thursday ESPN
Line/spread: Florida State by 3.5
Strength power rating projection: Louisville 29-28
Yardage Analysis forecast: Louisville 28-17
Analysis: Oddly enough, FSU only ranks #21 in our Strength power rating; Louisville isn't far behind at #25 and home field advantage makes the game pretty much a tossup by those numbers. The teams are opposites in scoring offense and defense, with the Seminoles strong offense (#14) matches by Louisville's strong D (#12), and the Cards' mediocre offense (#46) a good match for FSU's defense (#48).
What's really surprising is that the yardage numbers back up the idea that Louisville can win this game. By yardage, Louisville is the nation's #1 defense—in raw figures. Adjusted for their schedule it's #5, while FSU's offense is #32; that keeps the Seminoles' projected score low, while Louisville takes advantage of FSU's #59 yardage defense as much as they can with only the #78 offense. Looking at the rush/pass breakdowns, we project a game with a lot of passing yards from both teams, as FSU is the #11 passing team and only the #94 pass defense.
So the winner might be the team that can more effectively stop the other from running the ball, and that would be Louisville: their rush defense ranks an adjusted 5th in the nation (again, it's #1 in raw yardage). Neither team looks likely to put up a lot of rushing yards, but Louisville could hold FSU under 100.
In the end, we're picking the upset mainly because it's been on our radar so long. It's hard to pull the trigger on a major upset pick, so you have to stick with the ones that have been thinking about.
Final prediction: Louisville 28, Florida State 21
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