The College Football Playoff is new this year but already our projections have ruined the dreams of several teams in their quest for a spot in the final foursome. For the past three weeks, the team ranked #1—in other words, the team we consider most likely to make the Playoff, and our unofficial "top seed"—has lost after attaining that top spot.
- Auburn had just taken over from Florida State at #1 when they fell 38-23 to Mississippi State
- Then Baylor was #1, after which they lost to TCU in a 61-58 shootout
- Last week the new #1 was Mississippi; they fell to LSU yesterday 10-7
So after Mississippi's loss, we're back to where we started in the pre-season: with Florida State at #1, moving up from #2 after an idle week. Two SEC West teams remain in the top four, with Mississippi State at #2 and Alabama at #3, both up a spot. The Tide looked good against Tennessee winning 34-20, while the Bulldogs were a bit shaky against Kentucky but held on to win 45-31. We favor Alabama in the head-to-head clash and Mississippi to win the Egg Bowl, but the Bulldogs are still undefeated and #1 in the polls so they hold on to the #2 spot here. Both both Mississippi State and Alabama are slightly below the 50% waterline so there's a lot left to be sorted out in the SEC, but the conference getting two teams remains a good bet.
The #4 spot is a tight battle between three teams with Oregon edging Michigan State and TCU. That the Ducks are ahead of the Spartans makes sense if they both win out, and their odds of doing so are fairly similar. Michigan State maintains their inexplicable lead in the Coaches poll but Oregon is 3 spots ahead in the AP, and we're pretty sure that the first Committee poll will have Oregon ahead, too. They move up from #7 last week.
Speaking of the Committee, we're not concerned about their upcoming initial list; ours is a projection for the year's end. But it's pretty certain that Florida State and Mississippi State will be their top teams, probably in the order they appear in the polls (Bulldogs as top seed). The interesting thing will be to see where they put all the other teams relative to the AP and Coaches top 25.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Odds chart, week 9 (10/26/2014)
Last week |
10/26 Rank |
Team |
Playoff |
% Change +/- |
10/26 Rec |
Projected Record | Odds to win out |
|
|||
| Straight up | Cumulative | ||||||||||
| W | L | W | L | ||||||||
| 2 | 1 | Florida St | 61.7 | +2.7 | 7-0 | 11 | 1 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 7.1% | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | Mississippi St | 47.5 | +2.2 | 7-0 | 10 | 2 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 3.4% | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | Alabama | 47.1 | +11.5 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 15.2% | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | Oregon | 32.7 | +5.8 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 25.2% | 5.5 |
| 6 | 5 | Michigan St | 30.8 | +3.4 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 24.9% | 6.5 |
| 5 | 6 | TCU | 30.1 | +2.4 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 50.2% | 10 |
| 1 | 7 | Mississippi | 22.5 | -42.6 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 14.9% | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | Auburn | 22.1 | +9.8 | 6-1 | 8 | 4 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 3.1% | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | Marshall | 15.2 | -0.8 | 8-0 | 12 | 0 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 46.9% | 23 |
| 12 | 10 | Notre Dame | 13.7 | +1.8 | 6-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 12.7% | 6.5 |
| 14 | 11 | Georgia | 13.2 | +4.2 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.2 | 1.9 | 16.5% | 8.5 |
| 9 | 12 | Baylor | 12.7 | -0.2 | 6-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 19.6% | 12 |
| 11 | 13 | Ohio State | 9.9 | -2.1 | 6-1 | 10 | 2 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 11.4% | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | Nebraska | 6.9 | -4.3 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 12.1% | 16.5 |
| 15 | 15 | Oklahoma | 6.8 | +0.1 | 5-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 54.0% | 19.5 |
| 20 | 16 | Duke | 6.5 | +4.4 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 5.1% | 24 |
| 16 | 17 | Clemson | 5.7 | -0.9 | 6-2 | 10 | 2 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 36.0% | 21.5 |
| 17 | 18 | Kansas St | 3.7 | +0.2 | 6-1 | 9 | 3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 4.0% | 11 |
| 18 | 19 | Colorado St | 2.5 | +0.2 | 7-1 | 11 | 1 | 10.1 | 1.9 | 23.0% | 26.5 |
| 19 | 20 | East Carolina | 2.0 | -0.2 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 17.0% | 20 |
| 21 | 21 | Arizona | 1.7 | +0.8 | 6-1 | 9 | 3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 1.9% | 14.5 |
| 22 | 22 | Utah | 1.3 | +0.4 | 6-1 | 8 | 4 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.6% | 18 |
| 24 | 23 | Arizona St | 1.3 | +0.7 | 6-1 | 9 | 3 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 1.9% | 14.5 |
| -- | 24 | Wisconsin | 0.8 | +0.7 | 5-2 | 10 | 2 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 10.0% | 27 |
| -- | 25 | West Virginia | 0.5 | +0.1 | 6-2 | 8 | 4 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 7.0% | 21 |
Dropped Out: #23 UCLA, #25 Louisville Others receiving "votes": Louisville (6-2), UCLA (6-2), LSU (7-2), Missouri (6-2), Georgia Tech (6-2), Minnesota (6-2), Iowa (5-2)
Big Ten and Big Twelve: Michigan State and TCU have best shot, by far
Michigan State is first in line if Oregon falters at any time, and the Spartans need the Ducks to lose again. TCU, however, doesn't. The Horned Frogs scored 82 on Texas Tech but the pollsters weren't impressed, keeping them at #10. If the Committee holds the same opinion then the Big Twelve is likely to be shut out.
If it's not the Spartans winning the Big Ten then Ohio State might make the Playoff, but that loss to Virginia Tech looks worse each week. And yesterday's double overtime escape at Penn State didn't help. It made it look more likely the Buckeyes will lose in Lansing, and dropped Ohio State to #13. Nebraska slipped to #14 because of Wisconsin's 56-7 win over Maryland; that put the Big Ten West in much more doubt, with the Badgers now favored head-to-head over the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin moves in at #24, having only a small shot at making the Playoff as they already have 2 losses.
Baylor is the next Big Twelve team in line after TCU, with a win over the Horned Frogs and an upcoming clash with Oklahoma, who rests at #15. Both teams were idle yesterday. Kansas State blanked Texas 23-0 but are still underdogs against Baylor and TCU, which are both road games as is West Virginia. The Mountaineers brushed off Oklahoma State and debut at #25 with a 1/2 of 1% Playoff chance on our books. Better than none, but not by much.
SEC: How is the West won? We don't know
LSU's win over Mississippi just made things more complicated in the SEC West—as did Auburn's 42-35 struggle with South Carolina. The teams play each other next weekend which should help clear things up a bit. Ole Miss dropped to #7, but their win over Alabama is a strong card and they control their destiny to win the division. Auburn does not, but they're up to #4 in both polls so if they win out—but don't make the SEC championship game—they aren't out of the running. Though they are still #2 in our Strength power rating, they face Mississippi State, Georgia, and Alabama on the road yet, and we have them slight underdogs in all three.
And don't forget about Georgia. It might not even really matter who wins the SEC West, as the Bulldogs are playing stellar football without Todd Gurley and they might get him back anyway. They move up from #14 to #11 as they're now favored to beat Auburn at home.
As for LSU, they don't even appear in our top 25. With 2 losses already and a games left vs. Alabama, we think their odds of winning out, getting to the SEC title game, and winning it, are miniscule. Less miniscule than they were before Saturday, but still miniscule.
Non-Power Fives: Marshall, East Carolina don't get no respect
8-0 Marshall's only hope is to move up in the polls and it isn't happening—they actually slipped a spot in the Coaches poll after having difficulty in a 35-16 win over Florida Atlantic. They drop to #9, one rung ahead of Notre Dame. The Irish are getting respect in the polls and will have plenty if they win out, but the road game at USC is still a big hurdle and Arizona State is looking tougher, too. Still, the Irish move up two spots to #10.
East Carolina had trouble finishing off 1-6 UConn 31-21 and dropped 2 spots in the Coaches poll and 3 spots in the AP. That win over Virginia Tech isn't looking too great anymore, either. The Pirates drop one place to #20, still behind Colorado State who isn't even in either poll but has an easier path ahead.
Pac-12 has many viable alternatives, ACC doesn't
If Oregon doesn't win the Pac-12, there are a host of teams that could have a good Playoff shot. None of them has particularly good odds right now. On the other hand, if Florida State falters and doesn't make the Playoff, the ACC will be hard-pressed to have a team in the running.
Arizona, Utah, and Arizona state are only #21, 22, and 23—pretty similar to last week—but with one loss each they have potential to be in the running at the end. We project about 3 losses for each so we don't expect that potential to reach fruition. Meanwhile UCLA, who we once projected as a Playoff teams, drops off our top 25 altogether after almost losing to lowly Colorado.
Duke might be the most likely ACC replacement for FSU, and the Blue Devils are once again favored to win out now that Pitt lost so badly to Georgia Tech. Their odds of going 12-1 are just 5%, while Clemson has a solid chance to win out but probably won't reach the ACC final. Neither will Louisville who drops out from last week's #25 despite the fact that we're predicting a win over Florida State this coming Thursday.
If Louisville does beat FSU, that will continue the top seed curse. The Seminoles might remain in the top four since a loss is partially factored in already; it would depend on how the pollsters respond. Stop by next week to see what happened.
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